88 21 Vol. 21 Abstract The hydrological cycle is affected by both climate change and human activity, and separation of the effects of internal variabi

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1 Vol. 21, No. 1 Jan. 2016,,, [J]. 21 (1): Xie Jinbo, Zeng Yujin, Zhang Minghua, et al Detection and attribution of the inflence of climate change and human activity on hydrological cycle in China s eastern monsoon area [J]. (in Chinese), 21 (1): 87 98, doi: /j.issn , 3 2, 3 1, P467 A doi: /j.issn Detection and Attribution of the Inflence of Climate Change and Human Activity on Hydrological Cycle in China s Eastern Monsoon Area XIE Jinbo 1, 3, ZENG Yujin 2, 3, ZHANG Minghua 1, 4, and XIE Zhenghui 2 1 International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, New York , USA xiejinbo@mail.iap.ac.cn zxie@lasg.iap.ac.cn XDA Funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants , ), Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant XDA )

2 88 21 Vol. 21 Abstract The hydrological cycle is affected by both climate change and human activity, and separation of the effects of internal variability and human activity is important to a better understanding of climate change. The current study uses an atmosphere land interaction model that considers the effect of anthropogenic ground water exploitation and consumption to simulate the climate response to various factors. On the basis of the Optimal Fingerprint Detection and Attribution method, this study analyzes the hydrological change (presented by the annual change in surface temperature, precipitation, water resource, and evapotranspiration) in China s six major river basins within the eastern monsoon area those of the Yellow River, Huaihe River, Haihe River, Zhujiang River, Yangtze River, and Songhuajiang River. The results are as follows: The forcing effects of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosol projection, ozone change, and land-use change are detected in the surface temperature in most basins for the period , indicating a major influence of these forcings in long-term surface temperature change. In the annual precipitation change over the same period, these forcing effects are only detectable in the Huaihe and lower Yangtze River basins, and are a major factor in the latter of the two. During the period , a forcing effect of anthropogenic groundwater exploitation and consumption is detectable, being a major factor in these areas. In the water resource series of , the forcing effects of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosol projection, ozone change, and land-use change are detectable for the Huaihe, lower Yangtze, and lower Yellow River basins, but may not be the major factor. In the evapotranspiration series for the same period, the above forcing effects are only detectable in the Zhujiang and lower Yangtze river basins, but are major effects in the latter of these two basins only. Keywords China s eastern monsoon area, Hydrological cycle change, Optimal Fingerprint, Detection and Attribution method CO 2 Zhang et al. (2007) CMIP Barnett et al. (2008) VIC Liang et al., 1994 Liang and Xie, Delworth and Zeng (2014) Chen and Xie (2010, 2012) Zou et al. (2014, 2015) Zeng et al. (2015) CLM4.5 CESM1.2.0 Zeng Y J, Xie Z H, Zou J Climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation: A case study of the Haihe River basin, Northern China [J]. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

3 1 No. 1 XIE Jinbo et al. Detection and Attribution of the Change of Hydrological Cycle in China s Eastern Monsoon Area Jung et al. (2009) FLUXNET ET PR ET Clarke CESM1.2.0-gw (Zeng et al., 2015) CLM4.5 CESM1.2.0 GDP (Zou et al., 2014, 2015 Zeng et al., 2015 ) N 49.4 N 99.2 E 135 E 1 CESM1.2.0-gw (Hurrell et al., 2008) ANT 2 (Zou et al., 2014) ANT2 3 NAT 4 3 ALL 5 1 CTR 2 ALL ANT ANT2 NAT 3 NAT 4 ANT 5 ANT2 ALL ANT Zeng Y J, Xie Z H, Zou J Climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation: A case study of the Haihe River basin, Northern China [J]. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

4 90 21 Vol Fig. 1 Research areas in this study (1 Songhuajiang River basin, 2 Yangtze River basin, 3 Zhujiang River basin, 4 Yellow River basin, 5 Haihe River basin, and 6 Huaihe River basin) ALL ANT ANT2 NAT CTR CTR ALL NAT ANT ANT2 6 ALL IPCC (IPCC, 2007) Lamarque et al. (2010) Cionni et al. (2011) (Hurtt et al., 2006) Zou et al. (2014, 2015) Zeng et al. (2015) (Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO) CLM (Zou et al., 2014, 2015; Zeng et al., 2015 ) Lean et al. (2005) Ammann et al. (2003) ALL a ALL 2b 2c C/a 0.04 C/a Zeng Y J, Xie Z H, Zou J Climatic responses to anthropogenic groundwater exploitation: A case study of the Haihe River basin, Northern China [J]. Submitted to Journal of Climate.

5 1 No. 1 XIE Jinbo et al. Detection and Attribution of the Change of Hydrological Cycle in China s Eastern Monsoon Area 91 2d ALL 2e 2f 2e 2g a b c d e f g h 0.05 t Fig. 2 Spatial distribution and climatology trend ( ) of surface temperature and precipitation: (a) Observed temperature; (b) simulated temperature; (c) observed temperature trend; (d) simulated temperature trend; (e) observed precipitation; (f) simulated precipitation; (g) observed precipitation trend; (h) simulated precipitation trend (black dots represent points that passed the statistical test at the 0.05 significance level)

6 92 21 Vol mm/a 12 mm/a ALL 2h ALL 3 ( ) a b c d e f g h 0.05 t Fig. 3 Spatial distribution and climatology trend ( ) of runoff (precipitation minus evaporation) and evapotranspiration: (a) Observed runoff; (b) simulated runoff; (c) observed runoff trend; (d) simulated runoff trend; (e) observed evapotranspiration; (f) simulated evapotranspiration; (g) observed evapotranspiration trend; (h) simulated evapotranspiration trend (black dots represent points that passed the statistical test at the 0.05 significance level)

Cycle in China s Eastern Monsoon Area 93 1982 2005 3a

3 ALL 4 4a ALL 0.875 4b 0.3 0.6 ALL 0.7 ALL 0.

between the simulation and observations: (a)

(black dots represent points that passed the t test at

7 1 No. 1 XIE Jinbo et al. Detection and Attribution of the Change of Hydrological Cycle in China s Eastern Monsoon Area a ALL 3b 3a 3c 1982 ALL 3d 3e ALL 3f 3e 3e 1982 ALL 3f 3.3 ALL 4 4a ALL b ALL 0.7 ALL ALL 4c % ALL ALL ALL a b c 95% Fig. 4 The spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between the simulation and observations: (a) Temperature; (b) precipitation; (c) evapotranspiration (black dots represent points that passed the t test at the 95% confidence level) (Allen and Tett, 1999 Allen and Stott, 2003) (TLS) (Allen and Stott, 2003) m ( i i) i 0, 1 i 1 y x v v y x i v 0 i v i v i v i 6 v i

8 94 21 Vol. 21 i 1 i 0 1 ANT ANT2 NAT v CTR (Allen and Tett, 1999) (Allen and Tett, 1999) n k k (Allen and Tett, 1999) k k i 5a ANT ALL ALL ANT2 NAT 5b ANT c ANT 1984 ANT ALL b c ANT2 5e 5f b c ANT2 5c 20 (Zou et al., 2014) a ANT ALL ANT2 NAT 6b 6c

9 1 No. 1 XIE Jinbo et al. Detection and Attribution of the Change of Hydrological Cycle in China s Eastern Monsoon Area a c d f ANT ANT2 NAT ALL 5% 95% i 1 0 Fig. 5 Surface temperature (a c) single signal and (d f) multiple signal detection and attribution results for (left column), (middle column), and (right column). The confidence interval of the scale factor of the ANT (the effect of greenhouse gas, anthropogenic aerosol projection,ozone change, and land-use change), ANT2 (the anthropogenic groundwater exploitation), NAT (aerosol projection from volcano, solar irradiance change), and ALL (including the effect of all above factors) signals are represented separately by blue, red, green, and black box plots, in which the lower and upper bounds stand for the 5% and 95% confidence levels, and the middle point for the best estimate; the upper and lower dashed lines stand for 1 and 0 ANT ANT2 NAT ALL d ANT 6e 6f a ANT ANT2 NAT 7b c ANT NAT NAT ALL 7d ANT

10 96 21 Vol Fig. 6 Same as Fig. 5, but for precipitation (Jung et al., 2009) ANT ALL

11 1 No. 1 XIE Jinbo et al. Detection and Attribution of the Change of Hydrological Cycle in China s Eastern Monsoon Area a b c d Fig. 7 Similar to Fig. 5, but for (a, b) runoff and (c, d) evapotranspiration single signal (upper) and multi-signal (lower) detection and attribution results Jung et al. (2009) FLUXNET References Allen M R, Tett S F B Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting [J]. Climate Dyn., 15(6): , doi: / s Allen M R, Stott P A Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: Theory [J]. Climate Dyn., 21(5 6): , doi: /s Ammann C M, Meehl G A, Washington W M, et al A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate [J]. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(12): , doi: /2003GL Barnett T P, Pierce D W, Hidalgo H G, et al Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States [J]. Science, 319(5866): , doi: /science Chen F, Xie Z H Effects of interbasin water transfer on regional climate: A case study of the middle route of the South-to-North Water

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mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions 7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005