VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity % 88% Fig. 1 1 Main paddy rice cropping regions in China

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1 26 6 Vol. 26 No JOURNAL OF NATURAL RESOURCES Jun * PRECIS B2 VIC ~ mm %~ 29. 6% VIC P467 S A % ~ 80% % 21% 16% 4 50 ~ 100 a 5 23 ~ 145 mm % ~ 5% 7%~ 10% KZCX2 - YW BAC03A BAC03A max@ ami. ac. cn * wush@ igsnrr. ac. cn

2 VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity % 88% Fig. 1 1 Main paddy rice cropping regions in China

3 m 160 m 180 ~ 365 d 10 C ~ C 700 ~ h 500 ~ mm VIC 1 km DEM Maryland 1 km VIC 2 MATLAB B PREC TMAX TMIN WIND PRECIS IPCC SRES VIC VIC 1992 Wood Lettenmaier Liang Nijssen VIC km 50 km 20 VIC - 3L VIC VIC 50 km 50 km VIC ArcGIS NEAR http www. hydro. washington. edu /Lettenmaier /Models /VIC /VIChome. html

4 Nash-Sutcliffe E ns E ns = 1 - n Q 0 - Q p 2 i = 1 n i = 1 Q 0 - Q avg 2 1 Q 0 Q p Q avg n Q 0 = Q p E ns = 1 E ns 22 Fig. 2 2 VIC model calibrated watersheds in the main paddy rice cropping regions in China 5 28 B Ds Ds max n Ws 2 3 d2 d a km km %

5 Table 1 1 Results of calibrated parameters for different watersheds /km 2 /km ~ VIC - 3L VIC B B2 Re = P t - O t O t 100% 2 Re P t B2 O t Re Re Re = B ~ % 10% 51. 8% 20% 72. 9% 30% 89. 6% 4

6 Fig. 3 3 a B2 b Runoff depth based on observed climate data a and based on B2 scenario data b

7 Fig B2 Relative runoff depth differences calculated between observed and B2 scenario data VIC a 9. 3% B2 Fig. 5 Relative runoff depth differences calculated between observed and B2 scenario data during 1980 to 2000 VIC ~ B % 9. 3% B2

8 B B2 Fig. 6 Average annual runoff based on B2 scenario during ~ mm mm 2. 2 B a B B ~ mm % ~ % mm % mm % mm % mm

9 Fig. 7 General water resource in the main paddy rice cropping region in China during % mm % mm % mm % mm % mm % mm % mm % 3 B ~ 145 mm 2%~ 10% %~ 5% 7%~ 10%

10 a Fig. 8 8 Impact of climate change on water resource increase / decrease in the main paddy rice cropping regions in China during Table 2 2 Impact of climate change on water resources in main paddy rice cropping regions /mm /% /mm /%

11 B a ~ mm mm ~ mm mm ~ mm % ~ 29. 6% 3 References 1 IPCC M IPCC. Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report J LIN Yan-zhi FU Li-dong CHEN Li-yan et al. Progress on aftereffect of rice subjected to water stress. Reclamation and Rice M Committee of China s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. China s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. Beijing Science Press J ZHOU Yi-hui ZENG Guang-ping TANG Lin et al. Weather and climate characteristics during summer in Southern China. Journal of Applied Meteorology Supp M National Development and Reform Commission. China s Address Climate Change Programme J WANG Guo-qing ZHANG Jian-yun ZHANG Si-long. Review on venerability and impact of water resource of China under the global climate change. Journal of Water Resource and Engineering M REN Guo-yu. Climate Change and China s Water Resource. Beijing China Meteorological Press J YAO Feng-mei ZHANG Jia-hua SUN Bai-ni et al. Simulation and analysis on climate change impact of yield of rice in southern China. Climate and Environmental Research M China National Rice Research Institute. China s Rice Planting Zoning. Hangzhou Zhejiang Science and Technology Press VIC J HU Cai-hong GUO Sheng-lian PENG Ding-zhi et al. VIC model into runoff simulation. Yellow River

12 km 50 km J XIE Zheng-hui LIU Qian YUAN Fei. Frames of large scale land surface hydrological model based on 50 km 50 km grids. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering Jones R. ECMWF PRECIS J XU Ying-long Jones R. Using ECMWF data verify PRECIS simulation ability on regional climate of China. Journal of Agricultural Meteorology Hadley RCM J XU Yinlong. Development high-resolution regional climate scenarios of China based on Hadley center RCM. Climate Change Bulletin J XU Yin-long. Climate change scenarios simulation of China during 21 century. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology Xu Liang Dennis P Lettenmaier Eric F Wood. A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models J. Journal of Geophysical Research Xu Liang Eric F Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier. Surface soil moisture parameterizaion of the VIC-2L model Evaluation and modification J. Global and Planetary Change Xu Liang Guo Jianzhong Ruby Leung L. Assessment of the effects of spatial resolutions on daily water flux simulations J. Journal of Hydrology Bart Nijssen Dennis P Lettenmaier Xu Liang et al. Streamflow simulation for continental-scale river basins J. Water Resources Research Xu Liang Xie Zhenghui. Important factors in land-atmosphere interactions Surface runoff generations and interactions between surface and groundwater J. Global and Planetary Change J YUAN Fei XIE Zhen-hui REN Li-liang et al. Impact of climate change on hydrological characteristic of Meihei Basin. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering J SU Feng-ge XIE Zheng-hui. Study on impact assessment of climate change of runoff model. Progress in Natural Science M HAO Fang-hua CHENG Hong-guang YANG Sheng-tian. Non-point Pollution Model Theory and Methods Applications. Beijing China Environmental Science Press J CHEN Li-qun LIU Chang-ming. Climate and LUCC impact on runoff of source area of Yellow River. Chinese Environmental Science

13 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Main Paddy Rice Cropping Regions in China MA Xin WU Shao-hong 1 DAI Er-fu 1 ZHANG Xue-yan 1 4 KANG Xiang-wu 5 PAN Tao 1 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing China 2. Institute of Agricultural Environment and Sustainable Development CAAC Beijing China 3. Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment and Climate Change Ministry of Agriculture Beijing China 4. State Medicine Exam Center Beijing China 5. China Institute of Science and Technology Information MOST Beijing China Abstract Based on both observed climate data and B2 climate scenario s data from PRECIS the impact of climate change on water resources was simulated by using the VIC model. Comparison of runoff-depth between the average of B2 near term and the average of B2 baseline period shows that water resources would increase generally in the main paddy rice cropping regions with a distribution trend of higher in south-east and lower in north-west. Calculated based on 28 second class watersheds in China s main paddy rice cropping regions water resources increased from mm to mm as such relative variation from % to 29. 6%. Water resources would increase in the coastal areas of Qiantangjiang Wajiang Minjiang Hanjiang Mindong Yuedong Dongjiang and the watersheds of Taiwan s and would decrease in coastal areas of west Guangdong Guangxi and Hainan watersheds as well as in watersheds of Yuanjiang - Red River mainstream of the upper reaches of Huanghe River Jialingjiang mainstream of Huaihe River. But the absolute decrease would not be much. Key words climate change impact paddy rice water resources main cropping regions in China

1 GIS 95 Y = F y + (1 F) (1) 0 0 Y0 kg/hm 2 /day F y 0 y c kg/hm 2 /day [12] y m 20 kg/hm 2 /hour Y = cl cn ch G [ F( y ) T m yo + (2) (1 F)(

1 GIS 95 Y = F y + (1 F) (1) 0 0 Y0 kg/hm 2 /day F y 0 y c kg/hm 2 /day [12] y m 20 kg/hm 2 /hour Y = cl cn ch G [ F( y ) T m yo + (2) (1 F)( 24 1 Vol.24 No.1 94 2008 1 Transactions of the CSAE Jan. 2008 2008 1 100094 2 100035 3 100081 4 100081 5 100101 GIS ( ) 65.12 16.82 13.74 15.27 11.07 t/(hm 2 a) 10.93% 41.43% 46.93% 65.4%. Bi Jiye, Zhu