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低淇卓
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1 快讯 2009 年 2 月 16 日姚峣 (Dennis Yao) 国泰君安 ( 香港 ) (86) 深圳市场将于 09 年下半年恢复增长, 重申买入评级深圳控股编号 : 买入股价 : HK$1.40 受自住需求拉动,08 年 11 月至 09 年 1 月, 深圳新房交易面积同比增长 50% 以上, 达到日均 150 套以上, 显示出消费者信心的恢复及对当前房价的认可维持预期深圳楼市将于 09 年下半年重新进入景气周期,2011 年宝安及龙岗地铁站开通, 以及龙岗新火车站的开通将拉动深圳房价持续上升作为深圳市政府旗下主要的发展商, 公司将受益于深圳楼市的复苏及行业整合, 年公司盈利将进入快速增长期, 目前股价低于 0.5 倍的 NBV 值, 价值明显低估, 重申买入评级,12 个月目标价维持 2.7 港元, 约相当于 0.8 倍的 09 年预测 NBV 值受益于深圳楼市复苏受自住需求拉动,08 年 11 月至 09 年 1 月, 深圳新房交易面积同比增长 50% 以上我们预期深圳楼市将于 09 年下半年重新进入景气周期,2011 年宝安及龙岗地铁站开通, 以及龙岗新火车站的开通将拉动深圳房价持续上升作为深圳市政府旗下主要的发展商, 公司将最受益于深圳楼市的复苏及行业整合并购贷款将促进公司的规模扩张我们预计并购贷款有助公司并购规模较小的竞争对手以及加快深圳房地产市场的整合, 这将扩大公司的市场份额和通过并购壮大业务规模, 同时增大其股份的市值投资物业面积逾 600,000 平方米, 可通过房产信托投资基金 (REITs) 进行业务分拆公司大部分的投资物业位于深圳市区的工业园基于 09 年下半年中国将批准发行房产信托投资基金, 公司将获得新的融资平台, 以便旗下投资物业进行融资或分拆重申买入评级由于 08 年较低的盈利基础, 我们预期在年, 公司的净利润将以超出 20% 的复合年均增长率增加, 重申买入评级,12 个月目标价维持 2.7 港元, 相当于 0.8 倍的 09 年预测 NBV 值风险因素通缩可导致全国性的房价下滑 1

2 快讯 2009 年 2 月 16 日姚峣 (Dennis Yao) 国泰君安 ( 香港 ) (86) 投资评级定义相对指标 : 香港恒生拍指数投资期 : 6 至 18 个月投资评级相对表现买入 >15% 收集 5% to 15% 中性 -5% to 5% 减持 -5% to -15% 沽出 <-15% 此快讯由国泰君安 ( 香港 ) 的翻译员佘立东所翻译. 利益披露事项 (1) 分析员或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团的高级人员 (2) 分析员或其有联系者并未持有本研究报告所评论的上市法团的任何财务权益 (3) 国泰君安或其集团公司并未持有本研究报告所评论的上市法团的市场资本值的 1% 或以上的财务权益 (4) 国泰君安或其集团公司在现在或过去 12 个月内没有与本研究报告所评论的上市法团存在投资银行业务的关系免责声明本研究报告内容既不代表国泰君安证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司 ( 国泰君安 ) 的推荐意见也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易之要约国泰君安或或其集团公司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如 : 配售代理牵头经辨人保荐人包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 国泰君安的销售员, 交易员和其它专业人员可能会向国泰君安的客户提供与本研究部中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略国泰君安集团的资产管理部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的推荐或表达的意见不一致的投资决策报告中的资料力求准确可靠, 但国泰君安并不对该等数据的准确性和完整性作出任何承诺报告中可能存在的一些基于对未来政治和经济的某些主观假定和判断而做出预见性陈述, 因此可能具有不确定性投资者应明白及理解投资证券及投资产品之目的, 及当中的风险在决定投资前, 如有需要, 投资者务必向其各自专业人士咨询并谨慎抉择此为中文译本, 如中文与英文版本有不同之处, 内容以英文版本为准国泰君安证券 ( 香港 ) 有限公司版权所有, 不得翻印香港中环皇后大道中 181 号新纪元广场低座 27 楼电话 (852) 传真 (852)

3 Feb 16, 2009 Flash Notes Dennis Yao ( ) (86) Shenzhen market to resume growth in 2H09; Reiterate Buy Shenzhen Investment Code: Buy Price: HK$1.40 Boosted by real demand increase, Shenzhen property transaction volume increased over 50% YoY since Nov 1, We expect Shenzhen market to enter a new up-cycle in 2H09. As the main developer under Shenzhen Government, the Company will benefit most from market recovery. Reiterate Buy, with 12-month target price kept at HK$2.7, equal to 0.8xFY09 NBV. Chinese Summary: % NBV NBV Benefit from Shenzhen market recovery. Boosted by real demand increase, Shenzhen property transaction volume increased over 50% YoY from Nov 2008 to Jan We expect Shenzhen market to enter a new up-cycle in 2H09 and Shenzhen property price to keep rising, along together with the completion of new subway to Baoan and Longgang, as well as the completion of new railway station in Longgang in As the main developer under Shenzhen Government, the Company will benefit most from market recovery. M&A specific loans to facilitate its scale expansion. We expect M&A specific loans to help the Company to acquire smaller rivals and accelerate real estate market consolidation in Shenzhen, which will expand the Company s market share and business scale through M&A, along with the expansion of its stock market value. Investment property over 0.6 million sq.m., possible spin-off through REITs. Most of the Company s investment property are industrial parks in Shenzhen urban areas. Given listed REITs be approved in 1H09 in China mainland, the Company will have a new platform to finance its investment property, or to spin-off. Reiterate Buy. Due to a low profit base in 2008, we expect the Company s net earning to grow at CAGR over 20% in Reiterate Buy, with 12 target price kept at HK$2.7, equal to 0.8xFY09 NBV. Risk factors. Deflation might leads to nation-wide property price cut in China. Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Relative Performance Buy >15% Accumulate 5% to 15% Neutral -5% to 5% Reduce -5% to -15% Sell <-15% Page 1

4 ( ) DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as director in the listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates have no financial interests in the listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold more than 1% of the market capitalization of listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships within the preceding 12 months for the listed corporation mentioned in this Research Report. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queens Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) Fax: (852) Website: Page 2

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Microsoft Word - SH090330.doc 2009 年 3 月 30 日環球指數上周收市價一星期變化百分率四星期變化百分率恆生指數 14,119.50 +1285.99 +10.02% +1307.93 +10.21% 國企指數 8,481.22 +985.26 +13.14% +1578.38 +22.87% 上海綜合指數 2,374.44 +93.35 +4.09%