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1 ( ) ( ) Ξ ( ) ( ) :,,,, :, 1997 : (,1997), 4 :,,,,, (CGE), ( ),, Ξ Mark Dorfman,Estelle James, Louise Fox,Robert Holzmann,,,, Yvonne Sin,Larry Thompson, (RP ), 3

2 :, ; CGE CGE ; ; 35, 60 9 % 16 %,, % %( 1997), :( ) ;, ;,?,,, ( ),,, : (1),; (2) ( ), ; (3), , :, : 2000, ( 20 %) ( 4 % 8 %) 1 13 %, 20 %, 2 7 % : (1), , 27 4, 17 1 % 2 % ; 5 (2),,, (3), 1998, 7814 %, 1612 % 514 % ( Hang, 1999) (4),, 5,, (5),, 4

3 2001 5, 2,,,,, ( IPD),, IPD, ( ), IPD, IPD,, (1997) IPD 1994 GDP 46 %269 % 1998 IPD GDP 94 %(Dorfman and Sin,2000),, 3 :, 13 % 20 % ( 26 ) 4,,,, 1998,22 42,1999, 25,, : (1) ; (2) ; (3), : 6,,,,, (CGE) (CGE) CGE, CGE ( ), 22 Π, 10 8, 1 2 1, 5

4 : 20 %, 13 % 2, 11 % 1, 2,,, 2, 40 %,, 1 2, 1 5 %, , ( ) 50, 1995 (1995 ),, CGE 11 1 GDP , TFP % %, , %, %( 1 :20 %, 2 :40 %), (24 %), , :85 % Π ( Π ),, ( ) (TFP) GDP, 6

5 GDP , % % :,, ( ) ( )? , , , , ,? :,?,?,? 2 : 2001 ( 1) ( 2) 2001,,,,,,, : 2, 1, 2, 1 (97) 26, 20 %, , 1, , 1 50 %,,,,,, Wang(1997) 7

6 :, ( ) 313,, 12 %, % 4 %, % ,, ,,65 11 % % % 30 %, 3 1, % %,,,, ,730 ( 2),, 2, GDP TFP ( %) ( %) ( %) ( %) (10,1995 ) ( %) IPD 10, GDP : 85 %,, ( ) % %, 8

7 2001 5, 35 %,,, , 2000, IPD GDP 71 %, GDP, IPD, GDP , % 111 1, , ,662, 112, , ,,, , 113,, 12 2,,,,,, 2 GDP 2 GDP,,,, 2 GDP % 013 %, 2040, GDP ,, GDP % 9

8 :,, 2030,GDP 113,,,,, , 3, GDP 016 %, 2050 GDP 013 % 3 4 GDP,,,,,, Varian(1984),, 41 :, 4 GDP, 1 311, , % 312, %, 313 1,,,, 12 %,, 6 % 10

9 (10,1995 ) \ : 3,,,, 1,, 26, 1 4,,, 25 % 35 % 212,, 1, % 1215 %, 11 % 12 %, 1(20 % ), 10 % 12 %,, 1, 1,,, 4, % \ :, CGE : 1 ( ), 11

10 : 2, 2001, :, GDP 016 %, % 3 20 %, 10 % 1215 % 1,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1994 :,,,1997 : :,,1994 : :, 3 Disney,Richard,1999, National Accounts as a Pension Reform Strategy :An Evaluation. Social Protection Disussion Paper No World Bank,Washington,D. C. Dorfman,Mark C. and Yvonne Sin,2000,China :Social Security Reform,Technical Analysis of Strategic Options,Human Development Network, The World Bank. Washington,DC. Hang,Feng,1999, The Situation of Development of China s Basic Pension Insurance Undertaking. Hussain,Athar,1993, Reform of the Chinese Social Security System. In E. Ahmad and A. Hussain,eds., Social Security in the People s Re2 public of China. Oxford :Oxford University Press. James,Estelle,1999, New Models for Old Age Security and How Can They be Applied in China? Paper Presented at the WBI and MOLSS Workshop,Beijing,June 125. Schwarz,A. M.,and A. Demurgic2Kunt,1999, Taking Stock of Pension Reforms around the World. SP Discussion Paper no. 9917, World Bank,Washington,D. C. Varian,H,1984, Microeconomic Analysis,W. W. Norton & Company. Wang,Yan,1997 : Managing and Funding the Three Pillars,In Old Age Security : Pension Reform in China. World Bank,Washington,D. C. ( : ) ( : ) 12

11 Abstracts of Key Papers in English The Implicit Debt, Transition Cost, Reform Forms and the Influence of China s Pension System Wang Yan and Others One of the serious obstacles in China is economic reform is the lack of an efficient and sustainable pension sys2 tem. After an investigation of international experience in this regard,this paper carried out an analysis of the in2 fluence of China s pension reform and its transition cost and a comparison of the alternatives of repayment for the implicit pension debt and transaction cost based on the model of countalbe general equilibrium. The simula2 tion,as a result of a study of the impact of reform alternatives on the sustainability of pension system and the economic growth as a whole,shows that the reform of China s pension system is fully promising although it shoulders heavy responsibilties. A Study of Unsymmetry and Relativity of China s Business Cyscles Liu Jinquan and Fan Jianqing This paper gives not only an identification of the unsymmetry types appeared during the economic fluctuation, but also made an analysis of the caues of their formation with the help of the econometric methodology such as the model of time series after a random decomposition of some major macroeconomic variable series and an analysis of their relativity have been performed. A variety of empirical test for unsymmetry and the long tail character of business cycles,and an econometric analysis of the upheaval and relation among some major macro2 economic variable series have been done. The important derivatives of this paper can be served as an important typical fact to describe China s economic fluctuation and can be used to further analyze and judge the trend of China s economic operation,examine and correct the relevant economic theory. This paper holds that unsymme2 try of China s business cycles is mainly derived from unsymmetry of the investment in fixed assets,fiscal and monetary policy. By contrast,the factors such as the price level and demand maintain a relatively clear stabili2 ty. We also conducted a concrete analysis of the effectiveness,direction and time lag of the macroeconomic poli2 cy through an analysis of unsymmetry of the business cycles and the relativity among the cyclic components of economic variables. Stock Market,Money Demand and Aggregate Economy : A General Equilibrium Analysis 94

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<4D6963726F736F667420576F7264202D20D6D0B9FABAEAB9DBBEADBCC3B7D6CEF6D3EBD4A4B2E2B1A8B8E6A3A832303133C4EAB5DAD2BBBCBEB6C8A3A9B7D6B1A8B8E6CBC4A3BACED2B9FAD5FEB8AED7CAB2FAB8BAD5AEB1EDB3A4C6DAB7E7CFD5D3B0CFECD2F2CBD8B7D6CEF6A3A8B7EBBFA1D0C2A1A2C 我国政府资产负债表长期风险影响因素分析摘要 : 对中国国家资产负债表的研究显示, 中国政府净资产占 GDP 的比重大约在 50%-80% 之间我们分别从负债和资产两个方面对政府资产负债表的潜在风险因素进行了分析, 发现老龄化是负