UNCTAD/RMT/2013 in Chinese

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1 贸发会议联合国贸易和发展会议贸发会议海运述评关于贸发会议在贸易物流方面工作的更多信息见: 关于 2013年海运述评见: 海运述评 2013 电子邮件: 更多信息和订阅贸发会议运输通讯请登录: ISBN 联合国 Photo credit : Jan Hoffmann 联合国

3 ii * * * * * * * * * (UNCTAD/RMT/2013) Palais des Nations, CH 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland UNCTAD/RMT/2013 ISSN

4 iii 2013Jan Hoffmann Florence Hudry Wendy Juan José María RubiatoAnne Miroux Regina Asariotis Hassiba Benamara Jan Hoffmann Azhar Jaimurzina Anila Premti José María Rubiato Vincent Valentine Frida Youssef John Rogers Lucy Annette Deleze-Black Maritza AscenciosSophie Combette Nadège Hadjemian Nathalie Loriot Clarkson Research Services Tracy Chatman Socrates Leptos-Bourgi Jan-Willem Vanhoogenhuizen Clarkson Research Services Yann Duval Thomas Pawlik Hannes Finkenbrink Robert Piller Jan-Willem Vanhoogenhuizen Mary R. Brooks Ki-Soon Hwang Dong-Wook Song Mahin Faghfouri Stephen Fevrier André Stochniol Matthew Wilson Thanattaporn Rasamit Gordon Wilmsmeier Vladislav Chouvalov

5 iv ii... iii... viii...x...x...xi... xii... 1 A....2 B....6 C A B C D E A B A B C D E A B C D E

6 v A B C D ( ) (a) ( ) (b) ()..162 (c) () ( ) ( ) () () () ( ) ( ) () () ( ) ( )...43

8 vii 1.5 (a) () (b) ( ) () ( ) / / ( ) ( =100) (2004=100) ( ) ( ) () () () ConTex ( ,000 ) () (2013 ) () () ISO

9 viii 2013 AEO ASYCUDA BIMCO bpd BRICS () BWM Convention CBP CO 2 C TPAT DIS dwt ECA ECLAC ( ) EEDI Exim FEU 40 FPSO FSU GDP ( ) GEF GHG GRIs GT HNS HNS Convention IAPP ( ) ICS ILO () IMO () IOPC Fund ISO ISPS ITCP () KG km KOICA LDC LNG

10 ix LPG LSCI MARPOL () MBM MEPC () MLC MOU MRA MSC NATO NIS NOx ODA OECD () OHRLLS OPEC ( ) PAL PAL PROT PCASP ppm PPP SAFE SCR SDR SEEMP SOLAS SOx SRI STCW TACB TEU 20 TPP UNFCCC UNICRI UNODC VLCC WCO WTO ()

11 x $ (1,000) n.a. (-) 2007 ( ) 200, , ,000 80, ,999 60,000-79, ,000 60,000-99,999 40,000-59,999 10,000-39,999 >32.3 < 32.3 : : 100 ()

12 xi 80% % 90 ( ) ()

13 xii % 2.2% 1.8% 4.3% (a) 2008/2009 (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (a) (b) (c) (d) /( ) (e) (f) / (g) ( )

14 xiii % 58%65% 67% % % ( ) ( ) %

15 2013 xiv % % ( ) ( ) 2002 ( )

16 xv

18 %2.2% 1.8% 4.3% A BC

19 A % % % 4.6%3.0% % 5.9% 4.5% 2012 (1.2%) (2.2%) (-0.3%) 1.9% () a (27 ) a

20 1 : % % 2012 (3.8%) (5.4%) (3.0%) ( 2013 a) % ( ) % % ( ) ( 2013 b) % ( 2013 ) 1.1 ( ) ( 2013 ) 2008/2009

21 ( ), (1990=100) ()( A1a) ( 2013 a) 2012 ( ) ( 2013 ) % 50% %( 1.2) %18.3 (-22%) (-42%)(-23%) (-21%) ( 2013 )

22 1 : 5 (-0.2%) (-1.0%) % % 11% ( 2013 ) 4.1% % % 6.9%7.2% (-2.5%) 3.7% (2.2%) 2012 (1.6%) 0.5%( %) 4.5% 3.9% % 20 (5.3%)( 2013 ) 1.4% 5.3% 5.9% 2008 ( 2013 ) 3.0% () : (27 ) : :

23 (2012 ) ( 2013 ) , (2013 ) +6( ) B % ( ) ( ) (5.7%) % % % % %

24 1 : () ( a ) a / % % 58%( 1.3(a)) ( 1.3(b)) () (2013 a)

25 (a). 2012() (b). ()

26 1 : (c). 2012() ( 1.3(c)) ( 2013 a) ,230 1,330 ( 2013 a) 100 ( 2013 c) 140 ( 2013 c) ( 2013 b) ( 2013 a) (P.M. News Nigeria 2013 )

27 ( 2011 ) ( 2013 ) () (Voice of America News 2013 ) (Ernst Young 2011 ) 5 50% ( ) (Ernst Young 2011 ) , ( 2013 ) %( 2013 a) % % 2012 ( 1.4)( / ) 6.6% 6.1% 3.9% 2.4% 0.7% (11.8%) 6.2% 4.1% ,100(Crowe 2012 ) ,600 5,400 (Crowe 2012 )

28 1 :

29 ( )

30 1 : ( )

31 (10) a 2013b (2013 a) a b % 13.1% 4,002 (Crowe 2012 ) % 152%( 2012 a) % % % (Crowe 2012 ) % % % (Crowe 2012 ) (19.1%) (5.7%)(2.3%) (-1.2%)

32 1 : % 1 (a) (b) (c) ( 2013 ) 3. (a) () (2012 ) ( 2012 a) ( ) % ( 2013 ) % 8, % 8,620 ( ) 1.5 ( ) % 5, % 17.8

33 ( ) ( ) % , ( 2013 ) ( 2012 b) 1920 ( ) ( 2013 ) % 4.0%( 2013 ) 180 (2012 ) ( 2013 ) ( ) % 9,25050% ( 2013 ) ,300 3,000 7,500 (2012 )

34 1 : % ( 2013 ) ( ) % ( 2013 a) 1.6% ( 2013 a) () ( ) ( 2013 ) 2012 () ( 2013 ) ( 2012 b) ( ) ( 2013 a) ( 2013 a) 60/66 ( ) % 2.7%( 2013 ) 1.9% ( 2013 ) %

35 % % ( 2013 a) 2012 ( 2013 a) 32.1%( 2013 ) ( 2013 ) (a) (b) ( ) (c) (d) (e) ( 2012 c) ( 2012c)93 26 ( 2012 c) (2013 ) % 7.1% 4,500 ( 2013 a) (b) % 60 ( 2013 a) ( / ) ( ) %( 2013 a) (7.2%) (4.6%) ( 2013 a) 27 14

36 1 : 19 ( 2013 ) ( 2013 ) ( ) % % 2%( 2013 ) ( ) 12.3% % % ( ) ( ) (2013a) (2013b)(2013 )

37 % () % 43.7% 8% ( 2013 c) ( 2013 a) (2012 ) ( ) %( 2013 a 2013 b) % % % % ( 44.5% )12.8% (-52.8%) 2012 ( 2012 d) ( 2013 ) ( ) ( ) ( //)

38 1 : / % / % 19.2( 2013 ) 2012/ % / (Larsen 2013 ) (Larsen 2013 ) 2012/2013 ( )1.1% / % 2012/ % 1.9% (5.5%)( 2013 ) 2,380(1,420 ) (1,250)(1,210 )(1,170) (910) ( 2013 ) 2012/2013 5,200(2011/2012 7,260)1971 (Larsen 2013 ) ( ) ( ) 70 (Larsen 2013 ) ( ) ( 2013 ) ( ) / , ,200 ( 2012 e) % % ( 2012 e) (2013 )

39 , , %2, 900 3,000 ( ) % % (33.0%) (21.3%) ( )6.0% (33.8%) ( ) ( 2013 a) ( ) 3.6% (/ ) 3.5% ( ) % (2007 ) (Bernhofen 2013 )22 320%20 790% 20 45% 285% (Bernhofen 2013 ) ( 2013 a)

40 1 : / %-10%( 2013 a) ( 1.5(a))( 2013 b) %( 22.8 ) % % % % 20116%( (b)) ( 2013 b) 2012 ( 2013a) 1.5 (a) () 180 ( ) ( ) /2009

41 () MDS( ) %5.2% 6.9% 5.9% 1.5 (b). ( ) : ( ) ( 288 8/ )

42 1 : 25 ( 2013 c) ( ) ( 2013 c) C ( ) ( 2013 ) ( ) % 6.2% 3.7%( 2013 b) ( 2013 b) (+16,00018,300Triple-E ) 2012 ( 2013 a) ( 2013 b) (Dynamar B.V )

43 (a) (b) (c) (d) /( ) (e) (f) () ( ) (g) / (h) () (a) (b) (c) () ( ) (2013 ) () ( 2012 d) ( 2012 f) ( 50-60%)(2008 ) % 2008 ( 2012 f) 69% ( 2013 d) 2007 ( 2013 b)

44 1 : 27 (15-18 )( 2013 e) ( 2013 e) (Faber2012 ) ( 2013 f) ( 2013 g) (Wiesmann 2010 ) 2. () () ( ) %0.5% %0.1% %( 584 ) %(641 ) 36% ( 2013 ) (Dynaliners 2013 ) % 20% 50%( 2013 h) ( 2013 h) (

45 h) ( 2012 f) (Seatrade 2013 ) (Seatrade 2013 ) (Ports Harbors 2013 ) 3. // (Roussanoglou 2013 ) () (Haider 2013 ) (Haider 2013 ) (Haider 2013 ) (Haider 2013 ) 30%(Haider 2013 ) Triple-E 13,100 35% E 50%( 2013 ) (Roussanoglou 2013 ) (Haider 2013 ) ( 2013 ) ,700144

46 1 : 29 (Maritime Services - PanCanal. com 2013 ) ,862 3,331 (2013 ) 3( /) ( 5,100 ) ,500 7% 17% ( 2011 ) ( ) (Lower 2013 ) (a) / ( 2011 ) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (Rodrigue Notteboom 2012 ) (Stott Wright 2012 ) (Rodrigue Notte boom 2012 ) (2013 ) (2013 )

47 (a) 2008/2009 (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) 80%

48 1 : 31 Bernhofen DM, El-Sahli Z and Kneller R (2013). Estimating the effects of the container revolution on world trade. CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo, Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute. Munich. Bloomberg (2013). Maersk line to dump Panama Canal for Suez as ships get bigger. 11 March. British Petroleum (2013). Statistical review of world energy June. Building the world s biggest ship Maersk (2013). Maersk. See leadingthroughinnovation/pages/buildingtheworldsbiggestship.aspx (accessed 29 July 2013). Clarkson Research Services (2012a). Dry Bulk Trade Outlook. 18(5). Clarkson Research Services (2012b). Oil and Tanker Trades Outlook. 17(9). Clarkson Research Services (2012c). LNG Trade and Transport. ISBN: London. Clarkson Research Services (2012d). Shipping Review and Outlook. Autumn Clarkson Research Services (2012e). Dry Bulk Trade Outlook. 18(11). Clarkson Research Services (2012f). Container intelligence monthly. 14(5). Clarkson Research Services (2013a). Shipping Review and Outlook. Spring Clarkson Research Services (2013b). Container Intelligence Monthly. 15(6). Clarkson Research Services (2013c). Dry Bulk Trade Outlook. 19(4). Clarksons Shipping Services (2013). Dry Bulk Trade Outlook. 19(6). Containerisation International (2013a). Peaks and troughs. June. Containerisation International (2013b). Stuck in the Slow Lane. May. Crowe T (2012). Seaborne trade: The long and the short of it. Clarkson Research Services. 7 September. Shipping-Market-Review/Shipping-Market-Review---April-2013.ashx (accessed 10 September 2013). Drewry Shipping Consultants (2013). Can Africa do it? March. Dynaliners (2013). Trade review Dynamar B.V. Dynamar B.V. (2013). Dynaliners weekly. 26(13). Economist Intelligence Unit (2013). Global outlook. Country forecast, May Available at FileHandler.ashx?issue_id= &mode=pdf (accessed 17 September 2013). Ernst and Young (2011). Trading Places: The Emergence of New Patterns of International Trade. Ernst Young and Oxford Economics. EYG No. AU1000. Available at uploads/downloads/2011/11/tbf_212 International_trade_white_paper_v24_Low_Res2.pdf (accessed 9 September 2013). European Commission (2013). Science for environmental policy. Public health costs of air pollution fall in Europe but remain high for maritime shipping. Issue 324. European Commission. 27 June. Available at ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/334na4.pdf (accessed 16 September 2013). Faber J, Nelissen D, Hon G, Wang H and Tsimplis M (2012). Regulated slow steaming in maritime transport: An Fairplay (2013a). Africa s maritime structural transformation. 30 May. Fairplay (2013b). Energized Africa powers shipping. 9 May. Financial Times (2013). Oil tanker trade growth is fastest in a decade. 12 May. International Energy Agency (2012). World Energy Outlook Paris. International Energy Agency (2013). World Energy Outlook Special Report: Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map. Available at (accessed 12 September 2013).

49 International Grains Council (2013). Grain Market Report. 436, 30 August. Available at downloads/gmrsummary/gmrsumme.pdf (accessed 17 September 2013). International Monetary Fund (2013). World Economic Outlook: Hopes, Realities and Risks. International Monetary Fund. ISBN Washington. Larsen J (2013). Global grain stocks drop dangerously low as 2012 consumption exceeded production. Earth Policy Institute. 17 January. Available at (accessed 11 September 2013). Lloyd s List (2012a). Get ready for a new world oil map. 12 October. Lloyd s List (2012b). Washington faces growing pressure to export the US crude. 13 May. Lloyd s List Lloyd s List (2013b). Another lost year? 3 July. Lloyd s List (2013c). Nearsourcing: Homespun yarn or material change? 13 June. Lloyd s List Lloyd s List (2013e). Bunker Quarterly: Full slow steaming ahead. 6 June. Lloyd s List (2013f). Shippers lose out in slow steaming. 7 January. Lloyd s List (2013g). Lower speeds boost box schedule reliability. 7 January. Lloyd s List (2013h). Owners opt for scrubbers as SOx emissions deadlines loom. July. Lower J (2013). Panama Canal expansion fueling US investments. 13 June. Available at com/2013/06/13/panama-canal-expansion-fueling-us-investments/ (accessed 11 September 2013). Maritime Services PanCanal.com (2013). Panama Canal Authority. See transit-stats/index.html (accessed 29 July 2013). Mid-America Freight Coalition (2011). The far reaching effects of canal expansion. 16 March. Available at midamericafreight.org/2011/03/panama-canal-expansion/ (accessed 16 September 2013). OECD (2011). Strategic transport infrastructure needs to OECD publising. Paris. Available at org/ / en (accessed 9 September 2013). OPEC (2012). World Oil Outlook ISBN OPEC secretariat. Vienna. P.M. News Nigeria (2013). Nigeria s free trade zones attract $9.4b investment. 3 July. Ports and Harbors (2013). European Commission sets LNG bunkering target. International Association of Ports and Harbors. Ports and Harbors. 58(3). Research and Markets (2012). The market for coal power plants in Europe (analyst version) market volumes projects strategies trends. Rodrigue J-P and Notteboom T (2012). The Panama Canal expansion: business as usual or game-changer? Port Technology International. 51: Roussanoglou N (2013). Eco-ships growing in numbers, could undermine value of older ships. Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide. June. Seatrade (2013). Gas fuel going mainstream. March. Shipping and Finance (2013). Boom in commodities trade by 2025, due to one billion people entering consuming class. May. Stott P and Wright P (2012). The Panama Canal expansion: business as usual or game changer for ship design? Port Technology International. 53: UNCTAD (2013). Trade and Development Report, United Nations publication. UNCTAD/TDR/2013. New York and Geneva. United Nations (2012). The Global Partnership for Development: Making Rhetoric a Reality. MDG Gap Task Force Report United Nations publication. Sales No. E.12.I.5. New York. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2013a). World economic situation and prospects. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2013b). World economic situation and prospects. Update as of mid-2013.

50 1 : 33 United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2013c). World economic situation and prospects. United Nations Development Programme (2013). Human Development Report The Rise of the South: Human Progress in a Diverse World. United Nations publication. ISBN New York. United States Geological Survey (2013). Mineral Commodity Summaries United States Geological Survey. ISBN Washington DC. United States Institute of Peace (2012). U.S. renews Iran sanctions waivers December. Available at iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2012/dec/10/us-renews-iran-sanctions-waivers (accessed 10 September 2012). Voice of America News (2013). BRICS leaders optimistic about new development bank. 27 March. Wiesmann A (2010). Slow steaming a viable long-term option? Wärtsila Technical Journal. February. World Shipping Council (2008). Record fuel prices places stress on ocean shipping. May. World Steel Association (2013a). World crude steel output increases by 1.2% in January. World Steel Association (2013b). Short Range Outlook. April. WTO (2013). World trade 2012, prospects for WTO press release April. 1 (2013 a) 2

52 % 58% 65%67% % % %

53 A %10% ( ) (2.3 ) () ( )

54 2 : % ( ) 5%20 15% %( 2.1) ( ) / % 30.6% 30.1% -0.4% % 40.5% 42.0% 1.5% % 5.3% 4.9% -0.3% % 12.8% 12.7% -0.1% % 10.8% 10.2% -0.6% % 2.9% 2.7% -0.1% % 1.5% 1.4% -0.1% % 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% % 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% % 1.5% 1.4% -0.1% % 100% 100% 0.0% % ( 2013 ) Vale Korea , ( 2013 a)

55 Dynamar (Dynamar 2013 ) % (2013 ) () () :1( ) % 2013 Triple E Triple E 18,000 16, , ( ) ( ) ( )

56 2 : ( ) , % 28% (10,000 )47% 40%( 2013 ) % 5 40%( ) %20 4% ( )(25 )(22.6 ) (16.7 ) (10.8 ) (9.9 ) () 10 ()

57 , ( ) 1, ( ) / ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

58 2 : ( )( ) / ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

59 ( )( ) / ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) B % ( 2.4) 5, ( 2013 b) 1,000 (920 ) (720 ) (610 ) (600 ) 8,090 48% 67% 35

60 2 : ( ) a c b b b () ,000 a b () /

61 ( ) () ( ) () / () ( ) ()() () ( 2.5) (2013 ) %

62 : / / ( )

63 / / ( )( )

64 : / / ( )( )

65 / / ( )( ) Foreign flag National flag

66 : / / ( )( )

67 / / ( )( ) ,000

68 2 : 51 49% 2.5. ( ) () 8,000 ( ) ( ) 2012 ( ) % 13.4% 2.1% % 26.2% 1.9% % 33.4% -0.7% % 37.9% 14.6% % 42.3% 24.3% % 46.3% -1.5% % 49.8% -4.9% % 53.3% 1.3% % 56.8% 11.6% % 60.0% 13.2% 11 () % 62.8% 14.0% % 65.3% 28.0% % 67.7% 4.1% % 70.0% 15.8% % 72.2% 5.7% % 74.3% -0.2% % 76.1% -7.1% % 77.7% 36.5% % 79.3% -25.5% % 80.8% 0.3% % % % C. 1. ( 2013 ) (Bernhofen 2013 ) 1990

69 (Arvis 2013 ) ( ) 2004 ( 2013 ) ( 2013 ) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) ( ) ( 2.5) , , ( 8,238 16,020) ( 2.5. ( =100)

70 2 : 53 ) 15, ,000 92%( 2013 c) 27% ( 2013 ) %

71 D ( 21.5%) (12.2%) (8.6%) (8%)(5.5%)( ) 16% % 8 ( 95%) 2.6. (2004=100)

72 2 : (2004=100)( ) (Cullinane 2005 ) :150:50( ) % ( 2.7) % 2.7 () ( ) ( ) (()) / ( ) ( ) ( ) () () ()

73 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) a 2013/2012 ( ) () (NIS) (DIS) a 1,000

74 2 : ( ) ,000 ( 33%) ( )

75 % E () 92% 40%57% 2012 (18.4%) (14.4%)( ) % ( )

76 2 : ( ) (MCI San Antonio 2013 ) ( 2013 ) () 70% 21.6% 11.7%( 2.9) ( )

77 ( 2.9 ) () () % 58%65% 67%( ) % % 50% % ( 2013 a) 40% 2015 (2013 )

78 2 : () % (0.73%) (0.16%) (0.15% (99.85% (84.52% ( 2.11

79 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

80 2 : ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

81 () % 96% 170 ( 2013 c)10%

82 2 : 65 Arvis J-F, Shepherd B, Reis JG, Duval Y and Utoktham C (2013). Trade costs and development: a new data set. World Bank - Economic Premise. 104:1 4. Bernhofen DM, El-Sahli Z and Kneller R (2013). Estimating the Effects of the Container Revolution on World Trade. CESifo, Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research. Munich. China Trade Today Online Magazine (2013). Shipyard capacity could be slashed by 40pc and still meet demand. March. See (accessed 28 August 2013). Clarkson Research Services (2013a). The Clarkson Shipping Review and Outlook. Spring Clarkson Research Services (2013b). World Fleet Monitor. January. Clarkson Research Services (2013c). Container Intelligence Quarterly, Spring May. Cullinane KPB, ed. (2005). Shipping Economics: Research in Transportation Economics. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Dynamar B.V. (2013). Fairplay (2013). Chemical tankers on cusp of rates recovery. 11 April. International Transport Journal (2013). Maersk, MSC and CMA to establish alliance. 18 June. Journal of Commerce (2013). Drewry: Demise of small carriers cuts competition. See maritime-news/container-lines/drewry-demise-small-carriers-cuts-competition_ html (accessed 26 August 2013). Lloyd s List Intelligence Containers (2013). See htm (accessed 27 August 2013). MCI San Antonio (2013). See (accessed 15 June 2013). Shipping Intelligence Weekly (2013). Single hull VLCCs The long goodbye. 14 June. The Economist (2013). The humble hero. 18 May. UNCTADStat Statistical Database (2013). See (accessed 27 August 2013). World Cargo News (2013). MCI to build reefer factory in Chile. See w htm (accessed 28 August 2013). World Shipping Council (2013). See (accessed 29 August 2013) () ( ) ,000

84 A B

85 A ()

86 3 : % 20117% % % ( 4%)(7%) 2012 () 2011( 3.1) (GRIs) 51% , (/40 ) (/20 ) (/20 ) ( ) / ( ) ( ) () (/20 ) ( ) () ()

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UNCTAD/TDR/2013

UNCTAD/TDR/2013 联合国贸易和发展会议贸发会议贸易和发展报告 213 顺应世界经济不断变化的格局与时俱进联合国 213 213 UNCTAD/TDR/213 213 iii...xi... xiii... I XVIII 1 A. 1 1 4 8 B. 1 11 14 C. 21 199 21 25 29 32 35 37 iv 47 A. 47 B. 49 49 5 52 59 C. 6 D. 62 63 67