1 杨高举黄先海 FDI FDI FDI Intra-Product Specialization AZD JJD M T

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "1 杨高举黄先海 FDI FDI FDI Intra-Product Specialization AZD JJD M T"

艰袋璃朱
4 years ago
Views:

1 杨高举黄先海 FDI FDI FDI Intra-Product Specialization AZD JJD M T

2 GB 5 ipod % ThinkPad T43 nc %. 8% 30 RCA Statistical Illusion 3 Hummels VS 4 Koopman 5 International Specialization Status ISS J. Dedrick, K. L. Kraemer and G. Linden, Who Profits from Innovation in Global Value Chains? A Study of the ipod and Notebook PCs, U. S. -China Hi-Tech Trade Conference Paper, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, October 3-4, 009. B. Balassa, Trade Liberalisation and Revealed Comparative Advantage, The Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33, no., 965, pp D. Hummels, J. Ishii and Kei-Mu Yi, The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade, Journal of International Economics, vol. 54, no., 00, pp R. Koopman, Z. Wang and S. Wei, How Much of Chinese Exports Is Really Made in China? Assessing Foreign and Domestic Value-Added in Gross Exports, USITC Working Paper, no B, 008.

3 Thomsen Garcia Scur FDI FDI Blomstr m Persson Kokko FDI 3 Haddad Harrison Kokko 4 FDI 5 FDI L. Thomsen, Accessing Global Value Chains? The Role of Business-State Relations in the Private Clothing Industry in Vietnam, Journal of Economic Geography, vol. 7, no. 6, 007, pp ; R. Garcia and G. Scur, Knowledge Management in the Brazilian Ceramic Tile Industry and New Challenges of Competition in the Global Value Chain, Journal of Knowledge Management Practice, vol., no., 00, pp M. Blomstr m and H. Persson, Foreign Investment and Spillovers Efficiency in an Underdeveloped Economy: Evidence from the Mexican Manufacturing Industry, World Development, vol., no. 6, 983, pp ; A. Kokko, Technology, Market Characteristics, and Spillovers, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 43, no., 994, pp M. Haddad and A. Harrison, Are There Positive Spillovers from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Panel Data for Morocco, Journal of Development Economics, vol. 4, no., 993, pp. 5-74; A. Kokko, R. Tansini and M. C. Zejan, Local Technological Capability and Productivity Spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan Manufacturing Sector, The Journal of Development Studies, vol. 3, no. 4, 996, pp

4 03 FDI FDI FDI FDI 3 Hale Long 4 Fan Hu Hu Jefferson FDI X. Xu and Y. Sheng, Productivity Spillovers from Foreign Direct Investment: Firm-Level Evidence from China, World Development, vol. 40, no., 0, pp G. Hale and C. Long, FDI Spillovers and Firm Ownership in China: Labor Markets and Backward Linkages, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, no C. S. Fan and Y. Hu, Foreign Direct Investment and Indigenous Technological Efforts: Evidence from China, Economics Letters, vol. 96, no., 007, pp ; A. G. Z. Hu and G. H. Jefferson, FDI Impact and Spillover: Evidence from China s Electronic and Textile Industries, The World Economy, vol. 5, no. 8, 00, pp FDI 0 9

5 Long Riezman Soubeyran LRS A I I S LRS L = L s + L u L s L u w s w u w s = w u + t A I L Au L Iu L Au + L Iu = L u A A = L Au T A L Au A T A A A P A = w u = T A S I n i 0 n S s i CES S = [ n i s i ] 0 < < P i i P s = n P - [ ] i i - i s i cs i + f fw s cs i w s I 0 τ τ 0 I τ I p τ τ I P I = 0p τ dτ τ L u e τ S τ K r LRS N. V. Long, R. Riezman and A. Soubeyran, Fragmentation and Services, The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, vol. 6, no., 005, pp

6 03 τ p τ = w u + rτ + e τ P s e τ = ωτ ω > 0 p τ = w u + rτ + ωp s τ I P I = 0p τ dτ = w u + r + ωp s S i Shephard s Lemma s d i = S P s = ΔSp - Δ p i i n P - - [ ] i i - P i = P P s = Pn i S Δ ε = - > τ p τ = w u + τ r + - ωpn - r + ωpn p τ w u MR = P - ε = MC = cw s P = cw s S s S = [ ns ] = n s csn - + f I S S d = I 0e τ dτ = Iω L d s = nf + cωi - n L d Iu = I 0dτ ' = I K d = I 0τdτ = I Ricardian-type Model A P s = c + tt A - T A n p τ = + rτ + cω + tt A - τ T A T A n π i = ( P - cw ) s s - fw s = - cs - f + tt A T A

7 LRS LRS D Developed G Developing L * = L * s + L * u * G w * s w * u w * s = w * u + t = t + D A T * A T A < T * A A = P A = T A w u = P * A = T * Aw * u G D w * u < w u D G r < r * G w * s < w s n * < n G ω < ω * c < c * f < f * 3 G P * s = c* + tt * A T * - * A n η D G P s + η G η + P s < P * s D D φ φ < r * - r D G FDI K' G K * = K * 0 + K' K * 0 G r * = r + φ 4 G p * τ = + r * τ + ηω * τ + cω* + tt A T * - τ A T A n 4 6 T A < T * A r < r * ω < ω * p τ p * 6 τ τ = τ θ τ θ T * A - T A τ θ = T * A T A φ + ηω * + c ω * - ( - ω + tt A n ) 7 S G D G D t 3

8 03 I 0 < τ θ < G 0 τ θ D τ θ I P I = τ θ 0 p * τ dτ + τ θ p τ dτ = Φ + T A - T * A τ T * θ + Γτ θ Φ = + r AT A T A + cω + tt A - Γ = T A n φ + ηω * + c ω* - ω + tt A - T A n M = w u L + tl s + w * ul * u 8 M U I A = I α A - α I w = αm A w - α M = I w P I L d s = αcωm - + nf 8 M = P I n P I Λ Π Λ = L + L* u T A T * A αλ Π - + tnf Π = P I - αctωn I珋 w = I珋 w G L 珔 * Iu = I珋 w τ θ 0 dτ = I珋 w τ θ K 珚 * = I珋 w τ θ 0 τdτ = τ θ I珋 w 5 π * - αcωλ = 0 π = - f n + tnt A Π T A 0 τ θ G D G D G P A 9 3

9 ISS G ISS * = w * 珔 u L * Iu + r + φ K 珚 * w * 珔 u L * Iu + + r + φ K 珚 * + S * P s + η + w* 珔 u L * Iu + r + φ K 珚 * 0 L 珔 * Iu FDI 3 G c * P * s η + P s G G G R δ c *' = c * - R - δk' P s < P * s < η + P s LRS P s < P * s P s > P * s 33

10 03 ( T * A - T A ) τ' θ = φt * A T A + c * ' ω * ( + tt * A ) T A n * ( - ) - cω( + tt A ) T * A n ( - ) 7 τ' θ > τ θ I P' I = Φ + T A - T * A τ' T * θ + Γ'τ' AT θ Γ' = φ A + c* ' ω * + tt * A T * - - cω + tt A - * A n T A n G P' I < P I D G L' s D M' = w u L + tl' s + w * ul * + tl * s I珋 w' = αλ' Λ' = L' + L* + t nf + n * Π' T A f * Π' = P' I - αctω - τ' n - θ - αc * ' tω * τ' - θ n* P' I < P I I珋 w' > I珋 w G π * ' = αc* ω * - τ' θλ' - * Π'n - n * f * + tt* A T * A - R T * A P s < P * s < η + P s π * ' > 0 G ISS * ' = w * 珔 u L * ' Iu + w * 珔 s L * ' s + r + φ K 珚 * ' + π * ' w * 珔 u L * ' Iu + w * 珔 s L * ' s + + r + φ K 珚 * ' + π * ' + w* 珔 u L * ' Iu + w * 珔 s L * ' s + r + φ K 珚 * ' + π * ' 珔 L * ' Iu + 珔 L * ' s 3 G L 珔 *' Iu = I珋 w' τ θ ' 0 dτ = I珋 w' τ' θ K 珚 * ' = I珋 w' τ θ ' 0 τdτ = τ' θ I珋 w' L 珔 *' Iu > L 珔 * Iu L 珔 *' s > 0 珚 K *' > 珚 K * ISS * ' > ISS * G c *' < c * 34 G P * s < η + P s p * τ P * s η + P s p τ p τ p * τ τ' θ τ' θ > τ θ P * s = η + P s G G G ISS * ' > ISS *

11 c *' = c * - R - δk' FDI FDI G G G FDI FDI Ln ISS = α 0 + α Ln L u + α Ln L s + α 3 Ln K + α 4 Ln K' + α 5 Ln R + i α i Ln X i + ξ 4 ISS X i i 6 ξ Hummels 3 OECD 0 D. Hummels, J. Ishii and Kei-Mu Yi, The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade, pp

12 % 55% 006 0% % Szirmai 5 6 R&D OECD STAN Bilateral Trade Database, http: / / stats. oecd. org. http: / /www. sts. org. cn / A. Szirmai

13 Ln ISS Ln L u Ln L s Ln K Ln K' Ln R % 30% % 37

14 / http: / /edu-data. drcnet. com. cn /web / OECD 0 4 GMM GMM GMM WTO http: / /www. docin. com /p html. % /

005 007 004 004 3 005 007 004 004 005 007 004 305 4 4 3 3

15 P EX 4 F K R EX Lu Ls

16 OECD STAN Bilateral Trade Database Wald χ % Sargan AR GMM Ln ISS Ln Lu Ln Ls Ln K Ln K' Ln R Ln T Ln W Ln ISS t - Ln Lu t - Ln Ls t ** * * *** ** ** ** * ** *** ** ** ** ** ** * *** *** 0. 5 ** ** * *** ** ** ** ** ** ** *** *** * ** *** *** *** 0. 5 *** 0. 6 *** *** *** *** ** **

17 Ln ISS Ln K t - Ln K' t - Ln R t * 0. 5 *** * * * ** 0. 4 ** *** 0. 0 *** *** 0. 3 *** * cons Wald P Sargan P AR P AR P * ** *** z 0% 5% % t - P. P Ln T Ln W % % %

18 % 66. 6% 3. 6% 73. 9% 74. % Blake 004 Lin FDI FDI % % Blake 5 Hale Long A. Blake, Z. Deng and R. Falvey, How Does the Productivity of Foreign Direct Investment Spill over to Local Firms in Chinese Manufacturing? The University of Nottingham and GEP Research Paper, March 009. P. Lin, Z. Liu and Y. Zhang, Do Chinese Domestic Firms Benefit from FDI Inflow? Evidence of Horizontal and Vertical Spillovers, China Economic Review, vol. 0, no. 4, 009, pp A. Blake, Z. Deng and R. Falvey, How Does the Productivity of Foreign Direct Investment Spillover to Local Firms in Chinese Manufacturing?

19 R&D 44% 30% 70% 007 R&D 0. 7%. % 3 3 GMM Ln ISS Ln Lu * * ** *** G. Hale and C. Long, FDI Spillovers and Firm Ownership in China: Labor Markets and Backward Linkages. Blake Hale Long http: / /paper. people. com. cn /rmrb /html /00-03 /7 /nw. D0000renmrb _ 00037_ 4-0. htm) 43

20 03 3 Ln ISS Ln Ls Ln K Ln K' Ln R ** 0. 0 * *** 0. 0 * ** ** *** ** ** *** *** * Wald P Sargan P AR P AR P % 3 FDI 44

21 FDI FDI % 37. 7% 39. 3%

22 Social Sciences in China No. A monthly February 03 ABSTRACTS Accurately Understanding the Income, Consumption and Investment in China Xu Xianchun 4 This study examines the differences between the residents disposable income in the fund flow statement and that in the household survey, between the residents consumption in expenditure-based GDP and that in the household survey, and between the gross fixed capital formation in expenditure-based GDP and the total investment in fixed assets in statistics, in terms of basic concepts, use, scope, source of materials, computational methods and data presentation. Our study reveals that the data on residents income and consumption in the household survey have been undervalued, whereas the data on total investment in fixed assets in statistics have been overvalued. However, they have not immediately affected the accurate assessment of great economic structures such as the distribution structure of Chinese people s disposable income among residents, enterprises and the government, and the final demand structure. Internal Motives and the Specialization Status of Under-developed Countries: Evidence from China s High-Tech Industry Yang Gaoju and Huang Xianhai 5 This study incorporates value added ratio and productivity into the analytical framework of intra-product specialization as a globally comparable index for international specialization status, to analyze the effects of domestic technological innovation, labor force investment, capital investment and FDI spillovers on the international specialization status of the industries of developing countries. It also tests empirically the effects against the data from Chinese high-tech industry and enterprises. The results show that domestic technological innovation and the improved coordination of material capital and human capital are key internal motives for the improvement of the international specialization status of Chinese high-tech industry, whereas FDI spillovers play a relatively limited role therein. Therefore, the key to China s industrial upgrading is to tap and nurture the internal motives rather than to rely on FDI spillovers. 04

GDP = + + SNA

许宪春 GDP GDP 0086 4 GDP = + + SNA 993 008 5 03 GDP GDP = + + = + + + + - GDP GDP GDP GDP GDP = + + - + - = + + + 3 6 3 4 5 3 4 5 008 38 0 5 0 3 008 SNA European Commission, International Monetary Fund,

1 杨高举 黄先海 FDI FDI FDI Intra-Product Specialization AZD JJD M T

1 杨高举黄先海 FDI FDI FDI Intra-Product Specialization AZD JJD M T