Seven New Projects Opened with Five in Non-prime Area Seven new projects, HKRI Taikoo Hui, King 88, MixC, Lilacs International Commercial Centre, Aege

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Colliers Semi-annual H2 2017 9 February 2018 SHANGHAI RETAIL 上海零售 Active Market, with Seven New Projects Hebe Lau Manager East China Shanghai s retail property market was active in H2 2017.

Looking forward, Colliers predicts that the vacancy rate will continue to increase due to the heavy supply in the pipeline, and we expect the rental gap between prime and nonprime areas to widen

32 million sq m (14.2 million sq ft) will be completed in 2018, and approximately 2.5 million sq m (26.7 million sq ft) is scheduled for the next three years.

1 Colliers Semi-annual H February 2018 SHANGHAI RETAIL 上海零售 Active Market, with Seven New Projects Hebe Lau Manager East China Shanghai s retail property market was active in H Seven new projects were introduced. Five of the new projects were located at the nonprime area. Looking forward, Colliers predicts that the vacancy rate will continue to increase due to the heavy supply in the pipeline, and we expect the rental gap between prime and nonprime areas to widen further. Forecast at a glance Demand International brands will continue to be popular. Experiential retailers are the potential anchor tenants. Supply More than 15 new projects totalling 1.32 million sq m (14.2 million sq ft) will be completed in 2018, and approximately 2.5 million sq m (26.7 million sq ft) is scheduled for the next three years. This would increase the city s total stock by more than 50%. Vacancy rate We predict that the vacancy rate will increase by 2.5 percentage points to 15.1% by end-2018, and will increase to 16.6% by end Vacancy rate will be relieved since then as the wave of new supply is over. Rent We forecast that rent will decrease by 3.2% YOY to RMB33 (USD5) psm per day by end-2018, and will decrease to RMB32 (USD4.9) psm per day by 2019, though the existing projects should achieve rental growth. Thereafter, we expect rents to recover to RMB35 (USD5.5) psm per day by end 七个新项目入市, 市场表现活跃刘晓桓经理华东区 2017 年下半年, 上海商铺物业市场表现活跃七个新项目入市, 其中五个新项目位于非核心区域展望未来, 高力国际预期大量新增供应或将继续推升全市空置率, 且核心与非核心区域之间的租金差距将继续扩大预测一览表需求国际品牌将持续受青睐体验式零售商将成为购物中心潜在主力租户供应 2018 年, 合计 132 万平方米 (1,420 万平方英尺 ) 的 15 个新项目将入市, 且近 250 万平方米 (2,670 万平方英尺 ) 将于后三年入市这将使全市总存量扩增 50% 以上空置率我们预期至 2018 年年底, 空置率将同比上升 2.5 个百分点至 15.1%, 且将于 2019 年底前上升至 16.6% 此后随着新增供应减少, 空置率将有所缓和租金我们预计至 2018 年年底前, 租金将同比下跌约 3.2% 至人民币 33 元 (5 美元 ) 每天每平方米, 或于 2019 年下跌至人民币 32 元 (4.9 美元 ) 每天每平方米, 而现有项目将有望实现租金增长 2022 年, 我们预计租金将回暖至人民币 35 元 (5.5 美元 ) 每天每平方米

2 Seven New Projects Opened with Five in Non-prime Area Seven new projects, HKRI Taikoo Hui, King 88, MixC, Lilacs International Commercial Centre, Aegean Place, Xuhui SML and Gala Mall were opened in H2 2017, with a combined retail GFA of 768,000 sq m (8.26 million sq ft). Five of the new projects were located in non-prime areas, resulting in a drastic increase in stock of non-prime areas to 4.98 million sq m (53.6 million sq ft), accounting for 75% of total stock. The city s total stock increased to 6.61 million sq m (71.2 million sq ft) by the end of China Resources opened its first MixC in Shanghai in H This is located along Wu Zhong Road with a total GFA of 240,000 sq m (2.58 million sq ft). MixC achieved a high occupancy rate upon its opening in September. Aegean Place, the first project in Shanghai by Aegean Commercial Group, located opposite to MixC, has a total GFA of 200,000 sq m (2.15 million sq ft). The two projects have a comprehensive trade mix aiming at families needs. 七个新项目开业, 其中五个于非核心区域 2017 年下半年, 七个新项目 : 兴业太古汇长宁 88 万象城丁香国际商业中心爱琴海徐汇日月光以及尚悦湾竣工入市, 合计零售建筑面积 76.8 万平方米 (826 万平方英尺 ) 五个新项目于非核心区域, 致使非核心区域存量陡增至 498 万平方米 (5,360 万平方英尺 ), 或占总存量 75% 2017 年底, 全市总存量增长至 661 万平方米 (7,120 万平方英尺 ) 2017 年下半年开业的万象城, 系华润集团在沪首家该项目位于吴中路, 零售建筑面积 24 万平方米 (258 万平方英尺 ),9 月开业时即拥有较高的入驻率坐落于万象城对面的爱琴海, 系爱琴海商业集团在沪首个零售项目, 零售建筑面积 20 万平方米 (215 万平方英尺 ) 两个项目均具多业态, 并以家庭为目标客群 Swire Properties opened its first project in Shanghai, HKRI Taikoo Hui, in September This is a joint venture development with Hong Kong Resort International Limited, providing a total retail GFA of 98,700 sq m (1.06 million sq ft). The project was located on Nanjing West Road, with good accessibility. Xuhui SML is the third project developed by the ASE Group in Shanghai. It has a total retail GFA of 80,000 sq m (861,000 sq ft), and targets residents in nearby communities. Gala Mall (63,000 sq m retail GFA; 678,000 sq ft) is part of Harbour City, which is being developed on the former Shanghai shipyard site. Being part of the retail component of a mixed-use development, Gala Mall caters to the working professionals and residents in nearby communities. In the prime areas, renovations and readjustments for brand and trade mixes continued 年 9 月开业的兴业太古汇系太古地产在沪首个项目, 由香港兴业国际集团有限公司共同投资, 零售总建筑面积 98,700 平方米 (106 万平方英尺 ) 该项目位于南京西路, 交通可达性较高徐汇日月光购物中心系日月光集团在沪第三个项目零售总建筑面积八万平方米 (86.1 万平方英尺 ), 以临近社区居民为目标客群尚悦湾 ( 零售总建筑面积 6.3 万平方米 ;67.8 万平方英尺 ) 建于上海造船厂旧址, 系陆家嘴滨江金融城之零售部分, 为办公人士及周边社区居民提供所需在核心区域, 翻新及品牌业态的重新调整仍在持续 2 Colliers Semi-annual 9 February 2018 Shanghai Retail Colliers International

3 Figure 1 Shanghai Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre New Supply, Net Absorption and Vacancy Rate 图 1 上海中高端购物中心新增供应, 净吸纳量和空置率 Figure 2 Shanghai Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre Vacant Area, Occupied Area, Vacancy Rate by District 图 2 上海中高端购物中心分区空置面积入驻面积和空置率 sqm 平方米 '000 sqm 千平方米 550, % 1,400 30% 450, % 1,200 26% 25% 350, , ,000 50,000-50,000 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Source: Colliers International 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% New Supply 新增供应 Net Absorption 净吸纳量 Vacancy Rate 空置率 Demand was Active, Especially from International Brands and in Children s Care Sector Net absorption reached 682,000 sq m (7.34 million sq m) in the second half of High occupancy rate in new projects led to a net absorption of 525,000 sq m (5.66 million sq ft) in non-prime areas. With the completion of brand and trade mix adjustment in existing projects, 157,000 sq m (1.69 million sq ft) net absorption was recorded in prime areas. Despite the large amount of new supply, the city s overall vacancy rate dropped slightly to 12.6% due to the active leasing market. The ongoing brand and trade mix adjustment in existing projects continues to introduce new brands to Shanghai, and vacant space in projects opened in early 2017 continues to be absorbed. 1, % 15% 13% 13% 9% 10% 10% 9% 7% 静安浦东徐汇黄浦长宁虹口杨浦闸北普陀闵行 Jing'an Pudong Xuhui Huangpu Changning Hongkou Yangpu Zhabei Putuo Minhang Occupied Area 入驻面积 Vacant Area 空置面积 Vacancy Rate 空置率数据来源 : 高力国际 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 需求表现活跃, 尤以国际品牌及儿童业态为甚 2017 年下半年, 全市净吸纳量达 68.2 万平方米 (734 万平方英尺 ) 新项目内的高入驻率致使非核心区净吸纳量录得 52.5 万平方米 (566 万平方英尺 ) 随现有项目内新一轮翻新调整, 核心区净吸纳量录得 15.7 万平方米 (169 万平方英尺 ) 尽管有大量新增项目入市, 租赁市场表现活跃, 全市空置率小幅下降至 12.6% 现有项目的翻新调整不断为市场带来新的品牌,2017 年上半年入市的项目空置面积亦持续被吸纳 3 Colliers Semi-annual 9 February 2018 Shanghai Retail Colliers International

4 International brands showed strong demand in prime areas. At HKRI Taikoo Hui, noteworthy new openings included: Atelier Cologne s first China flagship store, Starbucks second Starbucks Reserve Roastery in the world, Disney s second store in Shanghai. At Plaza 66, after completion of brand and trade adjustment, new openings included: Chiara Ferragni s first store in the world, Fred s second store in Shanghai, Mikimoto s second store in Shanghai, Mr & Mrs Italy s first store in Shanghai. Demand from the Children s Care and F&B sectors was active in non-prime areas. At Aegean Place, new openings included: the kidswear brands balabala and Kinspace s new commitments, Cartoonyworld s new playground. MixC saw the launch of Meland Club s new premium playground. At Xuhui SML, several new F&B brands were introduced, including: TKK, BBQ7080, Toberay, Gantuan, Heiwushi. New Supply Pulled Down the Average Rent Due to the below-average-rents and the large amount of new supply in non-prime areas, the city s average ground floor rent was pulled down to RMB34.1 (USD5.25) psm per day, dropped by 0.7% QOQ. Figure 3 Shanghai Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre Ground Floor Rent by Area 图 3 上海中高端购物中心首层租金 RMB psm per day 人民币每天每平方米国际品牌对核心区域的零售需求强劲兴业太古汇内, 瞩目的新开活动包括 : 法国欧珑开设中国首家旗舰店, 星巴克开设全球第二家星巴克臻选烘焙工坊, 迪斯尼开设在沪第二家店恒隆广场品牌业态重新调整后, 新开活动包括 :Chiara Ferragni 开设全球首家直营店, Fred 及 Mikimoto 分别开设在沪第二家店,Mr & Mrs Italy 开设其上海首店非核心区域内, 儿童及餐饮业态需求活跃爱琴海内, 新开及新租活动包括 : 童装品牌 balabala 及 Kinspace 分别承租新铺, 儿童娱乐品牌卡迪尼乐园设立新店万象城内, 高端儿童游乐场 Meland Club 设立会员制新店徐汇日月光购物中心内, 若干餐饮品牌开业, 包括 :TKK 顶呱呱 BBQ7080 新西兰冰淇淋品牌 Toberay 甘兔庵京都宇治茶本铺及黑武士新增供应拉低全市平均租金全市零售物业首层平均租金环比下跌 7% 至人民币 34.1 元 (5.25 美元 ) 每天每平方米, 主要系非核心区域内新项目之低于平均水平的租金及大量新增供应所致 Figure 4 Shanghai Mid- to High-End Shopping Centre Ground Floor Rent by Area 图 4 上海中高端购物中心首层租金 RMB psm per day 人民币每天每平方米 Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Rents of Overall Market 整体市场租金 Rents of Prime Area 核心区域租金 Rents of Regional Area 区域性商圈租金 Rents of Developing Area 新興区域租金 0 静安 Jing'an 浦东 Pudong 徐汇 Xuhui Ground Floor Rent 首层租金黄浦长宁虹口 Huangpu Changning Hongkou 杨浦 Yangpu 闸北 Zhabei 普陀 Putuo Second Floor Rent 二层租金闵行 Minhang Source: Colliers International 数据来源 : 高力国际 4 Colliers Semi-annual 9 February 2018 Shanghai Retail Colliers International

5 Two En-Bloc Transactions Disclosed Two en bloc transactions were disclosed in H Kailong acquired the Laoximen Xinyuan Project in Huangpu district which consists of 15,900 sq m (171,000 sq ft) for RMB631 million (USD99 million). Joeone acquired the Zhenro Center in Minhang district for approximately RMB356 million (USD55 million), consisting approximately 6,430 sq m (69,180 sq ft) of retail area. Heavy New Supply Leads to High Vacancy Rate We expect 17 new projects totalling 1.32 million sq m (14.2 million sq ft) of retail GFA will be completed in This heavy new supply will push up the city s vacancy rate by about 2.5 percentage points YOY to 15.1%. Thirteen new projects are located in non-prime areas. The launch of so many projects in non-prime areas will further boost the proportion of total stock that non-prime areas represent. Given the large quantity of new supply in non-prime areas, Colliers predicts the below-average rents in those districts will pull down the city s average rent by about 3.8% to below RMB32.8 (USD5.04) psm per day. Colliers predicts another 16 projects are in the pipeline for the following two years. The vacancy rate will increase to approximately 16.6% by end-2019 before dropping to 14.9% by end Existing projects will continue their renovation and readjustments of brand and trade mix to stand out in the increasingly competitive market. We forecast the rental growth in prime area will remain buoyant in the short to medium term, but the high volume of new supply will pull down the city s average rent. As a result, Colliers predicts that the city s overall rent will decrease 3.8% YOY to RMB32.8 (USD5.04) psm per day by end-2018, and further decrease to RMB31.5 (USD4.84) psm per day by We predict rent starts to recover gradually thereafter and reach RMB35 (USD5.5) psm per day by end Vacancy rate will be relieved to 13.4% by end-2022 as new supplies gradually be absorbed. 两宗整售交易公布 2017 年下半年录得两宗整售交易公布凯龙瑞以总价约人民币 6.31 亿元 (9,900 万美元 ) 收购位于黄浦区的老西门新苑, 零售建筑面积约 15,900 平方米 (17.1 万平方尺 ) 九牧王以总价约人民币 3.56 亿元 (5,500 万美元 ) 收购位于闵行区的正荣中心二期 6 号楼, 零售建筑面积约 6,430 平方米 (6.92 万平方尺 ) 大量新增供应导致空置率攀升高力国际预计 17 个项目计划于 2018 年内竣工, 合计零售建筑面积 132 万平方米 (14.2 万平方英尺 ) 全市空置率将因大量新增供应同比上升 2.5 个百分点至 15.1% 13 个在建项目位于非核心区域, 会进一步提升全市非核心区域存量占比, 并给全市平均租金带来下行压力有鉴于此, 高力国际预测全市平均租金将下降 3.8% 至人民币 32.8 元 (5.04 美元 ) 每天每平方米高力国际预计另有 16 个项目计划于未来两年内竣工入市全市空置率将于 2019 年上升至约 16.6%, 而后于 2020 年回落至 14.9% 现有项目将对其品牌及业态组合持续进行翻新及调整, 以期在日益激烈的竞争市场中脱颖而出高力国际预测中短期内核心区域的租金增长仍将保持强劲之势, 而大量新增供应则将给全市平均租金带来下行压力有鉴于此, 高力国际预测全市整体租金将于 2017 年末同比下跌 3.8% 至人民币 32.8 元 (5.04 美元 ) 每天每平方米, 并将于 2019 年进一步下跌至人民币 31.5 元 (4.84 美元 ) 每天每平方米 2022 年, 我们预计租金将逐渐回升至人民币 35 元 (5.5 美元 ) 每天每平方米随着新增供应为市场吸收, 空置率将有所缓和, 回落至 13.4% 5 Colliers Semi-annual 9 February 2018 Shanghai Retail Colliers International

6 Figure 5 Shanghai Major Leasing Transactions in H PROPERTY BRAND TRADE Plaza 66 Chiara Ferragni Fashion Plaza 66 Mr & Mrs Italy Fashion HKRI Taikoo Hui Source: Colliers International Starbucks Reserve Roastery F&B HKRI Taikoo Hui Atelier Cologne Cosmetics IAPM Fendi Fashion 图 5 上海下半年主要租赁交易项目品牌业态恒隆广场 Chiara Ferragni 服饰恒隆广场 Mr & Mrs Italy 服饰兴业太古汇星巴克臻选烘焙工坊餐饮兴业太古汇欧珑美妝环贸 IAPM 芬迪服饰数据来源 : 高力国际 For more information: Tammy Tang Managing Director Executive Director Industrial Services China Tammy.Tang@colliers.com Andrew Haskins Executive Director Research Asia Andrew.Haskins@colliers.com Timothy Chen Director Research East China Timothy.Chen@colliers.com Copyright 2018 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. 6 Colliers Semi-annual 9 February 2018 Shanghai Retail Colliers International

Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化, 鼓励替代

Chinese oil import policies and reforms SINOPEC EDRI 2014.8 Chinese oil import policies and reforms 随着经济的发展, 目前中国石油消费总量已经跃居世界第二作为一个负责任的大国, 中国正在积极推进能源进口多元化,