Evans 1989 Rees 1986 GDP Gill 1988 Carrasco 1999 Congregado 2010 Le 1999 Borjas 1989 De Wit 1993 Kidd Miller 1984 Rees 1986 Bernhard

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2 Evans 1989 Rees 1986 GDP Gill 1988 Carrasco 1999 Congregado 2010 Le 1999 Borjas 1989 De Wit 1993 Kidd Miller 1984 Rees 1986 Bernhardt 1994 Parker 2004 Fujii 1991 Paulson 2004 Holtz-Eakin 1994 Blanchflower 1998 Lindh 1996 Earle Holtz-Eakin 1994 Light 1980 Carrasco 1999 Rees

3 Mats 2009 Mark 1996 Constant 2006 Borjas 1986 De Wit 1993 GDP Cullen 2002 Bruce 2000 Audretsch 2005 Linda 2009a 2009b Lu 2010 Wang Sandeep binary multinomial logit Maddala 1983 HEV Bhat 1985 X t - 1 t Pr Y it = 1 = Pr S it = 1 S it -1 = 0 = Pr U self it > U other it U self it < U other it = Pr βx it -1 + μ i + ε it > 0 = F βx it -1 + μ i 1 Y it = 1 t - 1 t = 1 S it t Y it = 0 t S it -1 = 0 t - 1 X it -1 β μ i ε it F logit F z = exp z / 1 + exp z 2 multinomial logit Pr Y it = k X it -1 k = k 1 t - 1 t k 2 t

4 t k 0 t - 1 t Pr Y it = 1 = exp β 1 X it -1 / 1 + exp β 1 X it -1 + exp β 2 X it -1 3 Pr Y it = 2 = exp β 2 X it -1 / 1 + exp β 1 X it -1 + exp β 2 X it -1 4 Multinomial logit Bhat 1985 HEV multinomial logit IIA HEV f ε ij = e - ε ij / θ j e - e - ε ij / θ j / θ 5 θ j i j P ij = Pr V ij + ε ij > V il + ε il = Pr ε ij > V il - V ij + ε il ( ) = ij Λ V il - V ij + ε il θ j ( ) 1 λ ε ij θ j θ j dε ij j l 6 λ Λ λ x = e - x e - e - x Λ x = e - e - x 2. Heckman 1979 Y s = X s β s + U s 7 Y * s = Z s γ s + η s s = 1 M 8 Y s Y * s X s Z s U s E U s X = 0 V U s X Z = σ 2 s s Y s OLS U s η s Lee 1983 Heckman Heckman inverse-mill s ε s ε s = max y * j - η s Bourguignon 2007 U s η s U i = σ i s ρ s η * s + ω i E U i Y * i > max y * j = σ i ρ s E η * s y s i > max y s j 9 s P [ s ρ s s - 1 m P s ] Y 1 = X 1 β 1 + σ 1 ρ 1 m P 1 + P s + υ 1 P s s υ 1 = η 1 + logp 1 10 BFG CHNS CHNS

5 Bian CHNS t t Lucas Small-Hsiao mulitnomial logit IIA 2 2 binary logit multinomial logit HEV IIA

6 paidbinomi paidmultin 1 t - 1 t 0 t - 1 t 1 t - 1 t 2 t - 1 t 0 t - 1 t unemplbinomi unemplmultin selfwithin 1 t - 1 t 0 t - 1 t 1 t - 1 t 2 t - 1 t 0 t - 1 t 1 t - 1 t 0 t - 1 t age age2 gender 1 0 Edu2 1 0 Edu3 1 0 Edu4 1 0 Edu5 1 0 martial 1 0 otherself otherwork lninc 2009 urban 1 0 east 1 0 busicycle 1% 59

7 2 multinomial logit binomial constant age age gender Edu Edu Edu * * * Edu ** ** ** martial * * * otherself *** *** *** *** *** otherwork *** *** *** *** *** lninc urban ** ** east busicycle log likelihood % 0. 1% 0. 2% Heckman BFG HEV 60 1 GDP

8 Heckman λ BFG 3 3 BFG P P P _m _m _m _m0 _m1 _m2 3 10% Hausman mulitnomial logit IIA 2 4 binary logit multinomial logit HEV 4 multinomial HEV binomial constant ** ** ** ** ** age * * * * * age ** ** ** ** ** gender *** *** *** *** *** Edu Edu Edu ** ** Edu martial * * *** * *** otherself *** *** ** *** ** otherwork *** *** *** lninc urban ** *** *** east *** *** *** busicycle log likelihood Heckman λ 2 IIA 61

9 4 2. 3% % 0. 4% BFG

10 Rissman 2003 Lucas BFG P P P _m _m _m _m00 _m1 _m2 Carroll 2000 Burke 2002 Cowling Congregado t - 1 t 1 t - 1 t 0 binary logit % binomial t constant age age gender Edu Edu Edu Edu * martial otherself otherwork lninc Small-Hsiao urban Hausman mulitnomial logit east IIA mulitnomial logit HEV busicycle log likelihood

11 2% 0. 4% % 0. 2% 7 1 Heckman λ BFG 5%

12 Audretsch D. B. M. Carree A. J. van Stel and A. R. Thurik 2005 Does Self-employment Reduce Unemployment working paper. Bernhardt I Comparative Advantage in Self-employment and Paid Work Canadian Journal of Economics Bhat C. R A Heteroscedastic Extreme Value Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Transportation Research Bian Yanjie and Zhanxin Zhang 2006 Explaining China s Emerging Private Economy Sociological Perspectives in China s Domestic Private Firms Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Management and Performance edited by A. S. Tsui Y. Bian and L. Cheng New York M. E. Sharpe. Blanchflower D. G. and A. J. Oswald 1998 What Makes an Entrepreneur Journal of Labor Economics Borjas G. J The Self-Employment Experience of Immigrants Journal of Human Resources Borjas G. J. and S. G. Bronars 1989 Consumer Discrimination and Self-emloyment Journal of Political Economy Bourguignon F. M. Fournier M. Gurgand 2007 Selection Bias Correction Based on the Multinomial Logit Model Monte-Carlo Comparisons Journal of Economic Surveys Bruce D Effects of the United States Tax System on Transitions into Self-employment Labour Economics Burke A. E. F. R. FitzRoy and M. A. Nolan 2002 Self-employment Wealth and Job Creation The Roles of Gender Nonpecuniary Motivation and Entrepreneurial Ability Small Business Economics Carrasco R Transitions to and from Self-Employment in Spain An Empirical Analysis Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Carroll R. D. Holtz-Eakin M. Rider and H. S. Rosen 2000 Income Taxes and Entrepreneurs Use of Labour Journal of Labour Economics Congregado Emilio José María Millán and Concepción Román 2010 From Own-Account Worker to Job Creator Working Paper. Constant A. and K. F. Zimmermann 2006 The Making of Entrepreneurs in Germany Are Native Men and Immigrant Alike Small Business Economics Cowling M. M. Taylor and P. Mitchell 2004 Job Creators Manchester School Cullen J. B. and R. H. Gordon 2002 Taxes and Entreprenurial Activity Theory and Evidence for the US Working Paper. De Wit G Model of Self-employment in a Competitive Market Journal of Economic Surveys Earle J. S. and Z. Sakova 2000 Business Start-ups or Disguised Unemployment Evidence on the Character of Self-employment from Transition Economies Labour Economics Evans D. S. and L. S. Leighton 1989 Some Empirical Aspects of Entrepreneurship American Economic Review Fujii E. T. and C. B. Hawley 1991 Empirical Aspects of Self-employment Economics Letters Gill A. M Choice of Employment Status and the Wages of Employees and the Self-employed Some Further Evidence Journal of Applied Econometrics Heckman James 1979 Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error Econometrica Holtz-Eakin D. D. Joulfaian and R. H. Rosen 1994 Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints Rand Journal of Economics Hammarstedt Mats 2009 Predicted Earnings and the Propensity for Self-Employment International Journal of Manpower Kidd M. P Immigrant Wage Differential and the Role of Self-employment in Australia Australia Economic Papers

13 Le A. T Empirical Studies of Self-employment Journal of Economic Surveys Lee Lung - Fei 1983 Generalized Econometric Models with Selectivity Econometrica Light I Disadvantaged Minorities in Self-employment International Journal of Comparative Sociology Lindh T. and H. Ohlsson 1996 Self-Employment and Windfall Gains Evidence from the Swedish Lottery Economic Journal Lu Jiangyong and Zhigang Tao 2010 Determinants of Entrepreneurial Activities in China Journal of Business Venturing Lucas R. E On the Size Distribution of Firms BELL Journal of Economics Maddala G. S Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics Cambridge University Press. Miller R Job Matching and Occupational Choice Journal of Political Economy Mohapatra Sandeep Scott Rozelle and Rachael Evadne Goodhue 2007 The Rise of Self-Employment in Rural China Development or Distress World Development Parker S. C The Economics of Self-Employment and Entrepreneurship Cambridge University Press. Paulson A. L. and R. Townsend 2004 Entrepreneurship and Financial Constraints in Thailand Journal of Corporate Finance Rees H. and A. Shah 1986 An Empirical Analysis of Self-employment in the U. K. Journal of Applied Econometrics Rissman E Self-employment as an Alternative to Unemployment Working Paper. Taylor Mark P Earnings Independence or Unemployment Why Become Self-Employed Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics Wang Jianying 2007 Self-employment in Urban China The Interplay of Gender Capitalism and Labor Market working paper. Yueh Linda 2009a Self-Employment in Urban China Networking in a Transition Economy China Economic Review Yueh Linda 2009b China s Entrepreneurs World Development Transitions to Non-farm Self-employment in China Xie E School of Economics Shandong University Abstract Using panel data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys CHNS this paper analyzes the determinants of transitions to non-farm self-employment. The paper distinguishes the existence of different initial status unemployment or paid employment and final status own-account self-employed or employers with employees furthermore transitions within self-employment was present. The main conclusion is that intergenerational transfers of human capital play a key role in transitions into self-employment regardless of starting status. Age and gender has a significant effect on the probability of transition for unemployed people to self-employment. The probability of transition for unemployed people is much higher than the ones for paid-employed. When the final states i. e. employers and own-account workers are also taken into account the probability of transition for unemployed people to employer is much smaller than the ones for paid-employed while the probability of transition for unemployed people to own-account self-employment is much higher than the ones for paid-employed. Higher education contributes with the job generation process. Key Words Non-farm Self-employment Occupational Choice Informal Sector Intergenerational Transfers of Human Capital JEL Classification J24 M13 O17 66

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:,,,, ;,,,,, Becker Tomes(1986), ( ), ( ),, ;,,,, , (CNHS) , ( ),CHNS,, CHNS :CHNS,, 30 %, 30 %, 30 % (1992), 2006 9 3 : CHNS, 90, ;, ;,1997 2000, :,, 30 % :,, 90,? :??,, 3, :100875 :xingchunbing @gsm. pku. edu. cn ;,,, 6 (,2006) CHNS, 1989 1409, 650 ; 582 402 162, 1072 1256 1325, 90 (1991 1993 ), (, 2006) (transition