km Mann-Kendall Morlet 2 Fig. 1 1 Geographical location of the study area km mm 5 a 80% 6

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1 ARID ZONE RESEARCH Vol. 30 No. 6 Nov a a 89. 8% a % % / LUCC 2-15 Legesse Ma 2 Li KZZD - EW djjiang@ yic. ac. cn http / /azr. xjegi. com

966 30 1 179 km 1964 2008 1 Mann-Kendall 24 3 0. 05 25 Morlet 2 Fig. 1 1 Geographical location of the study area 20 80 4 631 km 2 675. 6 mm 5 a 80% 6 9 983. 9 mm 6.

2 km Mann-Kendall Morlet 2 Fig. 1 1 Geographical location of the study area km mm 5 a 80% mm m c km % % m m a a a 45 a 2b 16. 6% % % % 48. 9% 3

3 6 967 Fig. 2 2 a d g b e h c f i Variation of runoff volumes at the hydrological stations of Nancun a d g Chanzhi Reservoir b e h and Yinfu Reservoir c f i in flood and non-flood seasons and different years 2 30 a a Fig. 3 Monthly runoff volumes at the hydrological stations of Nancun Chanzhi Reservoir and Yinfu Reservoir a ~ c 3 5 a d 1980

4 Tab Mann-Kendall Mann-Kendall test results of monthly runoff volumes at 3 hydrological stations along the Dagu River during the period of Z β P Z β P Z β P Fig M-K M-K sharp change test results of annual runoff volumes at the hydrological stations of Nancun a Chanzhi Reservoir b and Yinfu Reservoir c and of annual precipitation at Qingdao Meteorological Station a c e 5 b d f

6 969 7 a 23 26 1980 5a 1 ~ 3 a 11 a 1985 1966 U 1969 1975 1980 1969 5 ~ 6 a 10 ~ 11 a 1974 1981 1985 80 7 a 11 a 5a 0.

5 a a 1 ~ 3 a 11 a U ~ 6 a 10 ~ 11 a a 11 a 5a b 10 ~ 11 a 5 e ~ f a 11 a 4 a ~ 11 a a 5 ~ 6 a U 4 a 5 c ~ d ~ 3 a 7 a 11 a 1 ~ 3 a U a c e WPS GWS U b d f Fig. 5 5 a b c d e f Morlet Morlet wavelet transform of annual runoff volumes at the hydrological stations of Nancun a b Chanzhi Reservoir c d and Yinfu Reservoir e f

970 30 2. 4 1964 2008 6 1980 1964 1980 1981 2008 1964 1980 7 1964 2008 771. 27 mm 662. 78 mm R = 0. 145 3 P - 721. 43 14. 14% R 2 = 0. 986 P < 0. 05 1 45 a 1 1964 1980 7 12. 21 12. 94 5.

6 mm mm R = P % R 2 = P < a % R PBIS RSR mm mm Fig. 6 Double mass curve of annual precipitation and % annual runoff volume in the Dagu River Basin mm % a % 7 45 a Fig. 7 Time series of annual precipitation and air temperature at Qingdao Meteorological Station

7 6 971 Li Lijuan a mm % mm % J. Acta Geographica Sinica References 1 V r smarty C J Green P Salisbury J et al. Global water resources Vulnerability from climate variability and population growth J. Science Ma X Xu J C Luo Y et al. Response of hydrological processes to land-cover and climate changes in Kejie watershed South-west China J. Hydrological Processes Li L J Jiang D J Hou X Y et al. Simulated runoff responses to land use in the middle and upstream reaches of Taoerhe River basin northeast China wet average and dry years J. Hydrological Processes Legesse D Vallet-Coulomb C Gasse F. Hydrological response of a catchment to climate and land use changes in Tropical Africa Case study south central Ethiopia J. Journal of Hydrology Bewket W Sterk G. Dynamics in land cover and its effect on stream flow in the Chemoga watershed Blue Nile basin Ethiopia J. Hydrological Processes Chaves J E Neill C Germer S et al. Land management impacts on runoff sources in small Amazon watersheds J. Hydrological Processes Guo H Hu Q Jiang T. Annual and seasonal stream flow responses to climate and land-cover changes in the Poyang Lake basin China J. Journal of Hydrology Li Z Liu W Z Zhang X C et al. Impacts of land use change and climate variability on hydrology in an agricultural catchment on the Loess Plateau of China J. Journal of Hydrology J. D Wang Genxu Zhang Yu Liu Guimin et al. The effects of land use change on river runoff in Maying River basin during J. Science in China Series D Earth Sciences / J Jiang Dejuan Yang Junwei et al. Study on hydrological response to land use and land cover change in Dali River Basin Shaanxi Province J. Geographical Research J Hu Shanshan Zheng Hongxing Liu Changming et al. Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake J. Acta Geographica Sinica J Zhang Yongyong Zhang Shifeng Zhai Xiaoyan et al. Runoff variation in the Three Rivers Source region and its response to climate change J Liu Maofeng Gao Yanchun Gan Guojing. Long-term trends in annual runoff and the impact of meteorological factors in the Baiyangdian Watershed J. Resources Science J Ma Xinping Bai Hongying Hou Qinlei et al. Runoff change of Bahe River Basin in Qinling Mountains and its influencing factors J. Resources Science J Wang Zhenlong Chen Xi Hao Zhenchun et al. Long-term changing trends and periodic analysis of runoff at Lutaizi station on Huaihe River J. Journal of China Hydrology / J Li Lijuan Jiang Dejuan Li Jiuyi et al. Advances in hydrological response to land use and land cover change J. Journal of Natural Resources IPCC AR4 J Ju Qin Hao Zhenchun Yu Zhongbo et al. Runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios J. Advances in Water Science J Yao Wenyi Xu Zongxue Wang Yunzhang. Analysis of runoff variation in Yellow River Basin on the background of climate change J. Meteorological and Environmental Sciences J Yuan Fei Xie Zhenghui Ren Liliang et al. Hydrological variation in Haihe River Basin due to climate change J. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering J Wang

8 Gang Yan Denghua Huang Zhanfeng et al. Analysis on the longterm evolution of runoff volume and its affecting factors in the Luanhe River Basin J. Arid Zone Research J Xu Xiaoling WMO Technical Note No. 143 R. Geneva Switzerland Secretari-. at of the World Meteorological Organization Yan Junping Liang Xufeng. Evaluation of changes in runoff and the effect of human activities in the source area of Three Rivers J. Arid Zone Research J Zhang Weiwei Li Hong Sun Danfeng et al. Fourier and J Liu wavelet analysis of phosphorus concentration time series in Baihe Delin Liu Xianzhao Li Jiazhu et al. A quantification study on distribution characteristics of inner yearly runoff of the representative cultura Sinica River in Miyun Reservoir Upstream Watershed J. Scientia Agri- drainage basin in Jiaodong Massif Area J. Journal of Mountain 27 Moriasi D N Arnold J G Van Liew M W et al. Model evaluation Science guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed 23 Liu D L Liu X Z Li B C et al. Multiple time scale analysis of river runoff using wavelet transform for Dagujia River Basin Yantai China J. Chinese Geographical Science Sneyers R. On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations 25 Torrence C Compo G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis J. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society simulations J. Transactions of the ASABE Variation of Runoff Volume in the Dagu River Basin in the Jiaodong Peninsula JIANG De-juan 1 WANG Xiao-li Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Coastal Zone Environmental Processes Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Yantai Shandong China 2. College of Architectural Surveying and Mapping Engineering Jiangxi University of Science and Technology Ganzhou Jiangxi China Abstract The Dagu River is the largest river in the Jiaodong Peninsula and it is called as the mother river of Qingdao City. Runoff volume of the river has been sharply reduced since recent decades and the drying-up of the river course has occurred frequently which have seriously threatened the economic development and ecosystems. In this paper the variation of annual and seasonal runoff volumes and the affecting factors were analyzed based on the data of monthly runoff volumes at 3 hydrological stations of Nancun Chanzhi Reservoir and Yinfu Reservoir as well as the annual precipitation and air temperature data observed by Qingdao Meteorological Station during the period of The results showed that the annual runoff volume of the river was in a slight reduction in recent 45 years but its decadal difference was remarkable especially since the 1980s. The annual runoff volume at Nancun Hydrological Station became zero for many years. There was a sharp change of annual runoff volumes at the 3 hydrological stations in the early-1960s and also a 4-year fluctuation quasi-periodicity of annual runoff volume at Yinfu Reservoir Hydrological Station. Seasonally 89. 8% annual runoff volume at Nancun Hydrological Station occurred in flood season. Moreover the runoff volume at Nancun Hydrological Station was in a notable reduction in flood season and other months except in August and September its change was not obvious in non-flood season but the runoff volume was 0 in most years from the 1980s. Seasonal difference of runoff volume between the hydrological stations of Chanzhi Reservoir and Yinfu Reservoir was low compared with that at Nancun Hydrological Station. Compared with the annual runoff volume during the period of the percentages of reduced annual runoff depth by precipitation reduction and by human activities during the period of were % and % respectively which revealed that the runoff variation was strongly affected by these two factors. Furthermore under the background of global climate change human activities exacerbated the reduction of runoff volume and resulted in the Dagu River to be as a seasonal river. Key words runoff volume change trend sharp change period change Dagu River Basin Jiaodong Peninsula

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions 7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005