SWAT Jain et al km 2 Onstad & Jamieson 1970 Faith et al Li et al / 2009 SWAT Srinivasan & Arnold 1994 Saleh

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1 Chinese Journal of Ecology SWAT * ** 4 ( 1 中 国 科 学 院 地 理 科 学 与 资 源 研 究 所, 北 京 ; 与 环 境 保 育 重 点 实 验 室, 临 沂 师 范 学 院, 山 东 临 沂 ; 院 大 学, 北 京 ) 2 山 东 师 范 大 学 人 口 资 源 与 环 境 学 院, 济 南 ; 4 中 国 科 学 院 烟 台 海 岸 带 研 究 所, 山 东 烟 台 ; 3 山 东 省 水 土 保 持 5 中 国 科 学 3S SWAT % mm km mm km - 2 SWAT CA-Markov X522 A Runoff response to land use change in Baimahe basin of China based on SWAT model. WANG Xue ZHANG Zu-lu 2 3** NING Ji-cai 4 1 Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 2 School of Population Resources and Environment Shandong Normal University Jinan China 3 Shandong Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Environmental Protection / Linyi University Linyi Shandang China 4 Yantai Institute of Coastal zone Reseavchi Chinese Academy of Sciences Yantai Shandong China 5 Lniversity of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China. Chinese Journal of Ecology Abstract By using 3S technology and based on the analysis and prediction of the land use change in Baimahe basin a SWAT model was established to study the runoff response of the basin under the scenarios of different land use. In the meantime the contribution coefficients of the main land use types in the basin to the runoff depth were calculated. From 1987 to 2017 the main land use types in the basin were farmland construction land forestland and shrub land occupying 96% or more of the total land area while the grassland waters and unused land only had a smaller proportion. The four main land use types had different effects on the runoff depth. The contribution coefficient of forestland shrub land and construction land to the runoff depth was and mm km - 2 respectively implying that these three land use types had positive effects on the runoff depth in this basin. On the contrary the contribution coefficient of farmland was mm km - 2 implying that farmland had negative effect on the runoff depth. Key words SWAT model CA-Markov model land use runoff response Baimahe basin. * STKF ZX ** zulzhang@ 126. com

2 SWAT Jain et al km 2 Onstad & Jamieson 1970 Faith et al Li et al / 2009 SWAT Srinivasan & Arnold 1994 Saleh et al Nosetto et al DEM 2004 USDA 1994 SWAT http / /srtm. csi. cgiar. org Soil and Water Assessment Tool 90m TM Fig. 1 Location of Baimahe basin

3 Fig. 2 Land use patterns of the study area in different years Kappa SWAT DBF Matlab 3 SWAT CA-Markov CA-Markov Markov CA 2010 Markov SPAW CA Markov CA Liu & Andersson Fig. 3 Soil type map of the study area CA m 30 m 7 7 IDRISI Andes MCE CA-Markov 5 5

4 SWAT SWAT SWAT R x V a V b V c V d km 2 A x F x W x U x 2012 mm km - 2 x R x / 8 R x = V a A x + V b F x + V c W x + V d U x + 2 N P n m p q m p q x / Kannan et al SWAT SW t = SW 0 + t R day - Q surf - E a - W deep - Q gw R m - R n i =1 R p - R A m - A n F m - F n W m - W n U m - U n V a 1 m A p - A m F p - F m W p - W m U p - U m V R q - R p = b SW t mm SW 0 i A q - A p F q - F p W q - W p U q - U p V c R mm i R day i q - R m A q - A m F q - F m W q - W m U q - Um Vd mm Q surf i mm E a i mm W 3 deep i mm Q gw i V a V b V c V d mm DEM 2 HRUs HRUs 2007 SWAT HRUs Table 1 Land use changes from 1987 to 2007 in Baimahe basin km 2 a - 1 km 2 % km 2 % km 2 % km

5 % % % % 2% 2007 > > > > > > km km km km SWAT km 2 a km 2 a SWAT Li et al % SWAT km km km 2 a Beven Binley 1992 GLUE Generalized - 1 Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation SWAT Beven & Binley 1992 GLUE SWAT SCE km 2 Shuffled Complex Evolution GLUE km 2 a CA-Markov CA-Markov Table 2 Statistics of land use types in 2017 in Baimahe basin IDRISI Andes Markov CA-Markov 2007 Kappa CA-Markov 2007 Markov km 2 %

6 SWAT Table 3 Parameters sensitive to runoff and their value GLUE ranges ALPHA_BF SOL_K 1 a SFTMP CN2 Ⅱ SCS CH_K SOL_AWC ALPHA_BNK CH_N GW_DELAY SOL_BD SWAT Nash- Sutcliffe NS R NS n i = 1 Q o i - Q m i 2 NS = 1-4 n Q o i - 珚 Q 0 2 i = 1 n Q o i - 珚 Q o Q m i - 珚 Q m 2 R 2 i = 1 = 5 n Q o i - 珚 Q o 2 n Q m i - 珚 Q m 2 i = 1 i = 1 Q o i Q m i 珚 Q o NS > 0. 5 R 2 > R 2 SWAT ~ ~ < Kannan 2007 SWAT Fig. 4 Comparison of simulated and observed yearly runoff data during calibration Fig. 5 Comparison of stimulated and observed monthly data during calibration and validation

7 SWAT Table 4 Calibation and validation results of SWAT model NS R NS R mm 15. 8% SWAT % % 8. 00% 8. 96% SWAT R R % mm mm Fig. 6 Annual runoff depth under different land use scenarios 5 Table 5 Changes of annual runoff depth under different land use scenarios y = 7. 24x y = 6. 95x y = 6. 86x y = 7. 35x R y = x y = y = x y = 1. 51x R

8 SWAT Table 6 Coefficients of different land use types on runoff depth V Δ Δ Δ Δ Δ Δ mm mm km - 2 2% MATLAB mm km V a V b V c V d mm km > > > mm km SWAT mm km mm km mm km

9 SWAT Beven K Binley A The future of distributed modelsmodel calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrological Processes Faith G Wilson G Francis M et al Climate change impact on SWAT simulated stream fiow in western Kenya. International Journal of Climatology Jain SK Tyagi J Singh V Simulation of runoff and sediment yield for a Himalayan watershed using SWAT model. Journal of Water Resource and Protection Kannan K White SM Worrall F et al Sensitivity analysis and identification of the best evapotranspiration and run off options for hydrological modeling in SWAT Journal of Hydrology D Liu XH Andersson C Assessing the impact of temporal / dynamics on land-use change modeling. Computers Environment and Urban Systems Li CB Qi JG Feng ZD et al Parameters optimization based on the combination of localization and auto-calibration of SWAT model in a small watershed in Chinese Loess Plateau. Frontiers of Earth Science in China / Nosetto MD Jobbagy EG Paruelo JM Land-use change and water losses The case of grassland afforestation across a soil textural gradient in central Argentina. Global Change Biology Onstad CA Jamieson DG Modelling the effects of land / / use modifications on runoff. Water Resources Research Saleh A Amold JG Gassman PW et al Application of LP-MCDM-CA SWAT for the upper north Bosque River Watershed. Transactions of the ASABE Srinivasan R Arnold JG Integration of a basin-scale water quality model with GIS. Journal of the American Water DEM Resources Association CA-Markov wangx SWAT / 12b@ igsnrr. ac. cn SWAT