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1 Vol. 38 No. 2 March Population Research * % Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy Zhai Zhenwu Zhang Xianling Jin Yongai Abstract Fertility in China dropped below the replacement level in the early 1990s and has been increasingly lower arousing intense academic discussion on fertility policy adjustment.this paper estimates the size of objective population that is targeted by the two-child policy after computing the amount of the only children in 2012 based on the data of the 2005 national 1% population sampling survey and analyzes its impact on number of annual births.the results show that on account of the large number of the objective population covered by the two-child policy and women's strong desire to have the second child if there was an immediate transition to a universal two-child policy number of annual births would sharply increase with the peak value up to nearly 50 million and a total fertility rate of about 4.5. However immediately implementing the two-child policy could significantly retard the negative growth trend of population in the future increase labor supply and slow down population aging in China. Keywords A Universal Two - child Policy Number of Annual Births Total Fertility Rate Population Projection Authors Zhai Zhenwu is Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Zhang Xianling and Jin Yongai are PhD Candidates Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China.Beijing zhaizw@ ruc.edu.cn * 本研究得到中国人民大学研究生科学研究基金 2013 年度项目 ( 项目号 : 13XNH176) 中国第二次人口红利及对经济长期发展影响的理论与实证分析资助

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6 38 1 Figure 1 Female Cohorts Entering Childbearing Age before and after Policy

4 Figure 1 Female Cohorts Entering Childbearing Age before and after Policy Adjustment 2 Figure 2 Impact of Fertility Policy Adjustment on Lifetime Fertility %

5 % % % ~ ~ ~ 30 Figure 3 Proportion and Quantity of Only Child Population Aged 0 ~ 30 in 2005 注 : 图中独生子女规模根据 2005 年全国 1% 人口抽样调查资料表 8-7 中 0 ~ 30 岁独生子女调查数据除以 % 抽样比得到 ; 独生子女比例根据 2005 年全国 1% 人口抽样调查资料表 8-7 与表 3-1 计算得到 ~ ~ ~ % 由于我国国际迁移规模相对较小, 而且分年龄数据难以获得, 因此并未考虑国际迁移的影响考虑到我国妇女生育模式在过去数十年发生明显变化, 本文在利用 2005 年原始抽样数据计算妇女一二胎间隔时, 仅考虑了子女在 1990 年及之后出生的样本

6 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ % % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 37 Figure 4 Estimation of the Only Child Population Aged 0 ~ 37 in 2012 资料来源 : 国家统计局. 中国 2012 年国民经济和社会发展统计公报. 2013; 国家统计局. 中国 2011 年国民经济和社会发展统计公报. 2012; 国务院人口普查办公室国家统计局人口与就业统计司. 中国 2010 年人口普查资料. 中国统计出版社, ~

7 ~ % ~ ~ ~ 49 Figure 5 Number of Women Having an Only Child in 2012 资料来源 : 国家统计局年全国 1% 人口抽样调查资料. 中国统计出版社, ~ 49 Table 1 Number of Women Having an Only Child in 2012 年龄 ( 岁 ) 妇女人数 ( 万人 ) 年龄 ( 岁 ) 妇女人数 ( 万人 ) 由于青年组死亡率较低, 死亡对育龄妇女的影响较小, 因此没有考虑育龄妇女的死亡 2005 年抽样调查数据无法直接计算独生子女的母亲的年龄分布, 因此, 本文利用现存子女数为 1 的妇女的子女母亲年龄联合分布作为替代由于我国婚外生育极少, 且育龄妇女结婚率很高, 因此没有考虑婚姻状态的影响

8 10 38 续表 1 年龄 ( 岁 ) 妇女人数 ( 万人 ) 年龄 ( 岁 ) 妇女人数 ( 万人 ) 合计资料来源 : 同图 % 59% 67% ~ % 66. 0% 55. 8% 20 ~ 24 80% 25 ~ 29 70% 30 ~ 34 60% % 60% 70% %

9 % % % 8047 Figure Proportions Having One Child and Wanting a Second One by Age of Couples in Which One Side Has No Siblings 资料来源 : 中国人口学会, 中国人口学会 2013 年年会资料,2013: % % % 根据此次调查数据计算得到全国现有 1 孩的单独夫妇想要生育第二个孩子的比例为 60. 8%, 考虑到立即全面放开二胎下, 生育意愿更高的农村夫妇比例增加, 我们对调查数据的直接汇总结果进行了调整, 以保证分年龄加权后全国平均二胎生育意愿为 70%

10 % % % % ~ Figure 7 Population Trend after Policy Adjustment 1 根据前文对妇女生育意愿的综述, 二胎生育意愿为 70% 的设定更符合全面放开二胎下我国妇女整体的生育行为, 因此, 对未来人口愿景的分析是基于 70% 二胎生育意愿下的妇女生育水平测算

11 Figure 8 Population Pyramid in 2030 after Policy Adjustment ~ ~

12 ~ 59 Figure 9 Trend of Working-age Population ( aged 15-59) after Policy Adjustment % % % % Figure 10 Trend of Population Aging after Policy Adjustment

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14 /References 1 王广州, 胡耀岭, 张丽萍. 中国生育政策调整. 社会科学文献出版社,2013: 212,217 Wang Guangzhou,HuYaoling and Zhang Liping Adjustment of Family Planning Policy in China. Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press: 212, 乔晓春, 任强. 中国未来生育政策的选择. 市场与人口分析,2006; 3: 1 13,66 Qiao Xiaochun and Ren Qiang The Choices of Chinese Fertility Policy in the Future. Market & Demographic Analysis 3: 1 13,66. 3 陈友华. 关于进一步完善生育政策的若干认识问题. 市场与人口分析,2007; 1: Chen Youhua Considerations on Adjustment of Fertility Policy in China. Market & Demographic Analysis 1: 新浪评论我有话说. 穆光宗 : 放开单独二胎对人口出生规模影响有限. http: / /news. sina. com. cn /pl / / shtml Sina Reviews- I want to say Mu Guangzong: Allowing Couples in Which One Side Have No Siblings to Have a Second Child Has Limited Impact on Annual Births. http: / / news. sina. com. cn / pl / / shtml, November 王广州, 张丽萍. 到底能生多少孩子中国人的政策生育潜力估计. 社会学研究,2012; 5: ,244 Wang Guangzhou and Zhang Liping How Many Births Can We Have? Estimation of Potential Policy Fertility. Sociological Studies 5: , 曾毅. 普遍允许二孩民众和国家双赢. 社会观察,2012; 9: Zeng Yi Allowing Two Births Benefits Both the Country and Its People. Social Outlook 9: 郭志刚. 关于生育政策调整的人口模拟方法探讨. 中国人口科学,2004; 2: 2 12 Guo Zhigang Methodological Discussions on the Population Simulations for Adjustment of Fertility Policy. Chinese Journal of Population Science 2: 王广州. 北京市生育政策调整对出生人口规模的影响. 北京社会科学,2011; 3: Wang Guangzhou Preliminary Study on the Effect of Changing the One-child Policy on the Birth Population Size of Beijing. Social Science of Beijing 3: 国家统计局年全国 1% 人口抽样调查资料. 中国统计出版社,2007 National Bureau of Statistics National 1% Population Sample Survey. Bejing: China Statistics Press. 10 刘爽, 邹明洳. 一二孩生育间隔及其政策意义基于国际视角与中国情境的实证分析. 人口研究,2011; 2: 83 93

15 2 17 Liu Shuang and Zou Mingru Interval between First and Second Birth and Its Policy Implications. Population Research 2: 王军. 我国生育政策对二孩生育间隔影响的分层模型研究. 南方人口,2013; 4: 1 7 Wang Jun The Effects of Family Planning Policy on the Interval between the First and the Second Birth. South China Population 4: 巫锡炜. 初婚初育史对育龄妇女二孩生育间隔的影响. 中国人口科学,2010; 1: 36 45,111 Wu Xiwei The Effects of First Marriage and First Birth on Second Birth Interval for Chinese Women at Childbearing Age: A Study Using Split Population Survival Model. Chinese Journal of Population Science 1: 36 45, 宋珊. 中国人口转变中的婚育行为转变. 北京 : 中国人民大学硕士论文,2008 Song Shan Behavior Change of Nuptiality and Fertility In Demographic Transition of China. Master Dissertation Beijing: Renmin University of China. 14 中国人口学会. 中国人口学会 2013 年年会资料. 北京, : 15 China Population Association China Population Association 2013 Annual Meeting. Beijing,December 21 ~ 23: CCTV 面对面. 翟振武 : 释疑单独二胎. http: / /news. cntv. cn /2013 /ll /17 /VIDE shtrnl, CCTV One on One Zhai Zhenwu: Explaining Two-child Policy for Couples in Which One Side Has No Siblings. http: / / news. cntv. cn /2013 / ll /17 / VIDE shtrnl,november 新浪网. 你愿意生二胎吗调查. http: / /survey. news. sina. com. cn /survey. php? id = &dpc = 1, Sina Would You Like to Have a Second Child Survey. http: / / survey. news. sina. com. cn / survey. php? id = &dpc = 1,February 国家统计局年国民经济和社会发展统计公报. http: / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjsj /tjgb /ndtjgb /qgndtjgb / / t _ html National Bureau of Statistics National Economy and Society Developed Statistical Bulletin http: / / www. stats. gov. cn /tjsj /tjgb /ndtjgb /qgndtijgb / /t _ html

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~ ~ * 40 4 2016 7 Vol. 40 No. 4 July 2016 35 Population Research 2014 1 2016 2016 9101. 0 40 49. 6% 2017 ~ 2021 1719. 5 160 ~ 470 100872 Accumulated Couples and Extra Births under the Universal Tw o-child