INDUSTRY UPDATE Chinese government formally releases credit-based system. Analyst: Mark Po, CFA Tel: (852) ) News

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1 公司 / 行业动态 2017 年 9 月 29 日行业更新中国政府正式发布双积分政策分析员 : 布家杰, CFA (markpo@chinastock.com.hk; 电话 : (852) ) 新能源汽车行业的消息面正面 2017 年 9 月初, 有报道指中国正在计划在长远而言禁止生产和销售燃油车另外有报道指出, 中国正考虑允许外国汽车制造商在自由贸易区内设立独资电动汽车业务虽然当局还未作出最终决定, 但最早或可在明年初实行当局放松成立合资公司的规则, 将使海外公司有机会在中国设立生产业务另一方面, 国外汽车制造商正在中国积极寻求合资机会 : 福特汽车 [F.US] 计划与安徽众泰汽车合作, 以新品牌在中国生产电动客车 ; 大众汽车 [VOW.GR] 与江淮汽车成立了合资企业在中国开发电动汽车此外, 在昨天, 工信部在经过一年的讨论后终印发乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理办法 ( 涉及新能源车的燃油效率标准 ) 对于新能源汽车供应链( 包括原材料电池和 OEM) 来说, 近日的消息面仍偏向正面尽管相关股份近日已上涨, 但我们相信有投资者正在重执对相关股份的兴趣我们亦相信, 对于新能源汽车业务不多的 OEM, 由于增长前景相对较不明朗, 它们的股价或会受压积分制推广新能源汽车中国政府于 2016 年 9 月发布了关于积分制的征求意见稿, 并于昨天印发了最终版本工信部的积分制将对汽车生产商进行以下两个方面的评估 :(a) 传统车辆的平均燃料消耗量 ( 燃油效率标准 );(b) 新能源汽车的生产比例 ( 新能源汽车积分 ) 双积分制将在 2018 年 4 月生效如果满足工信部制定的要求, 汽车制造商将获得积分, 若未能达标将失去积分油耗负积分可通过取得新能源汽车正积分抵偿, 而新能源汽车负积分只能通过购买新能源汽车正积分预计在 2016 年到 2020 年, 平均燃料消耗量将同比下降 6% 在积分制下, 对年度生产量在 2000 辆以下乘用车生产企业和进口量在 2000 辆以下的进口工业企业放宽了平均燃料消耗量积分的标准要求核算年度进口量 2000 辆以下的, 暂不实施积分核算对传统能源乘用车年度生产量或者进口量超过 2000 辆但不满 3 万辆的乘用车企业, 需达到平均燃料消耗量要求, 但不需达到新能源汽车积分比例要求 ; 达到 3 万辆以上的, 从 2019 年度开始设定新能源汽车积分比例要求 ;2019 年 2020 年新能源汽车积分比例要求分别为 10% 12% 例如, 年产量 100 万台的汽车生产商必须在 2019 年累计取得 10 万分, 并在 2020 年取得 12 万分生产新能源车所取得的积分将根据中国政府制定的公式 :a) 纯电动车纯电动续驶里程 +0.8 计算积分 ;b) 混合动力车 :2 点,c). 燃料电池乘用车 P(P = kwh / 100 公里 ) 积分上限为 5 分对于纯电动车, 若汽车生产商生产里程为 300 公里的汽车, 将获得 4.4 分对于未能达到工信部要求的汽车生产商, 除非能在下一年达到正积分, 否则将不被允许生产高燃料消耗车型新能源汽车的生产积分较难获得, 因此一些汽车生产商可能不得不暂停生产高利润的高燃料消耗车型汽车生产商可以从有剩余积分的汽车生产商购买新能源汽车积分, 这意味着市场将重新评估新能源产能工信部还将为不符合要求的汽车生产商建立黑名单库黑名单库上的汽车生产商将被限制或禁止享受到政府的支持政策, 例如财政补贴和税收优惠政策据中汽协的估算,2016 年新能源乘用车积分行业平均水平约为 3%, 因此, 要在 2019 年实现 10% 的目标比较困难我们认为, 补贴计划在今年年初的转变, 为新能源汽车行业带来不确定性, 整个行业在 2017 年上半年的增长都因此受限不过, 双积分制政策和新能源汽车电池行业的利好政策, 都反映中国政府仍决心推动新能源汽车行业, 因此新能源汽车供应链 ( 特别是电动汽车 ) 的前景仍然乐观在工信部的积分制下, 汽车生产商将承担更多推广新能源汽车的责任汽车生产商可以通过应用新技术来满足燃料消耗量要求, 但若要满足新能源汽车生产系统的要求, 将需要更多的研发投入和更先进的新能源汽车产能因此, 具有先发优势的领先企业将成为主要受益者在微观层面上, 我们认为, 只有少数上市公司包括比亚迪股份 [1211.HK] 和北汽 [1958.HK] 能在 2018 年和 2019 年达到新标准市场亦相信, 由于吉利 [0175.HK ] 有新的新能源汽车产品, 公司应能轻易达到政府的要求受高燃料消耗车辆部门影响的汽车制造商将受到新政策的伤害另外, 对于主要经营高燃料消耗汽车业务的公司, 或会因新政策而受到负面影响潜在受益和受损股份对于国家推行双积分政策和新能源汽车的新政策, 潜在受益者包括北汽比亚迪光宇国际 [1043.HK] 天能动力 [0819.HK] 和信义香港 [8328.HK] 但是超威动力[0951.HK] 方面, 其酸铅电池业务似乎受到原材料成本上涨影响, 而由于市场关注其盈利能力, 其股价可能会受压 ( 相关行业新闻的链结 : h t t p : / / w w w. e s m c h i n a. c o m / n e w s / a r t i c l e / ? utm_source=weixin&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=weixin-esmc_ ) 在我们最新发布的国轩高科[ CH] 调研报告中, 我们提出了国轩高科也是主要受益者之一, 因为市场正在对中国电池产能进行重新估值在新政策下, 锂和钴等原料的供应商也将受惠于强劲的需求另外, 一些主要经营高燃料消耗汽车业务的公司 ( 如长城汽车 [2333.HK]) 如果未能达到中国政府设下的新目标, 可能会因新政策而受到严重的负面影响 1

2 INDUSTRY UPDATE Chinese government formally releases credit-based system. Analyst: Mark Po, CFA Tel: (852) ) News flow on the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry remains positive. In early Sep 2017, the Chinese government released a message on banning sales of internal combustion engine vehicles in the long term. According to recent news releases, the Chinese government is also considering allowing overseas vehicle makers to set up wholly-owned electronic vehicle businesses in the free trade zones. The final decision has not yet been made, but it could be put in place as early as next year. This relaxation of the joint venture rule will give overseas companies an opportunity to establish manufacturing operations in China. Also, foreign car makers are actively seeking joint venture opportunities in China: Ford Motor [F.US] is planning to cooperate with Anhui Zotye Automobile to build electric passenger vehicles in China under a new brand; and Volkswagen [VOW.GR] launched a new joint venture with JAC to develop electronic vehicles in China. Also, yesterday, after a year of discussion, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) formally released the credit-based system (fuel efficiency standard for NEVs) for the auto industry. The news flow remains positive for the NEV supply chain, including raw materials, batteries and OEMs. Despite their recent share price outperformance, we believe that investors may have renewed interest in companies in the NEV supply chain. We also believe that shares of auto OEMs with limited exposure to the NEV segment will continue to underperform, given uncertainties on the growth outlook. Credit-based system to promote the NEV industry. The Chinese government released a draft of the credit-based system in Sep 2016 and released the final version yesterday. According to the MIIT credit-based system, automakers will be evaluated on two areas: (a) average fuel consumption of conventional vehicles (fuel efficiency standard), and (b) the proportion of NEV production (NEV standard). The credit-based system will become effective in Apr Automakers will gain if they fulfil the requirements set by the MIIT system and will lose they fail to meet the targets. The lost from the fuel efficiency standard can be offset by gained from the NEV standard, but lost from the NEV standard cannot be offset by gained from the fuel efficiency standard. The average fuel consumption is expected to drop 6% YoY from 2016 to Under the credit-based system, enterprises in China that produce or import fewer than 2,000 vehicles per annum will not have to meet the fuel efficiency standard. Enterprises in China that produce or import more than 2,000 vehicles but fewer than 30,000 vehicles will have to meet the fuel efficiency standard but not the NEV standard. For enterprises in China that produce or import 30,000 vehicles or above, the NEV contribution must reach 10% of total sales in 2017 and 12% in For example, an automaker with annual production volume of 1m units must accumulate 100,000 in 2019 and 120,000 in The for producing an NEV will be subject to a formula set by the Chinese government: a) pure electric vehicles R+0.8 (R=km), b) hybrids 2, and c) fuel cells 0.16 P (P=kWh/100km). The /credits will be capped at 5. Regarding pure electric vehicles, for producing cars with a range of 300km, an automaker will get 4.4. If an automaker fails to meet the MIIT requirements, it will not be allowed to produce high-fuel-consumption models unless its achieves a positive point total in the following year. NEV production are more difficult to get, so some automakers may have to suspend production of highly profitable high-fuel-consumption models. Automakers can buy NEV credits from other automakers with excess credits, which means that new energy capacity will be rerated by the market. The MIIT will also establish a blacklist system for automakers that do not meet the requirements. Automakers on the blacklist will be restricted or banned from benefiting from government support policies, such as financial subsidies and preferential tax policies. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the NEV ratio achieved by automakers was only 3% in Therefore, the 10% target ratio for 2019 will be difficult for some automakers to achieve. We believe that the change in the subsidy programme earlier this year created uncertainty in the NEV sector and that growth of the whole industry was capped in 1H However, the launch of the credit-based system and policy support for the EV battery industry indicates that the Chinese government is still keen on promoting NEVs and that the outlook for the NEV supply chain (especially electric vehicles) remains positive. Under the MIIT credit system, automakers will take more responsibility for promoting NEVs. Automakers can meet the fuel efficiency requirements through the application of new technology, but meeting the requirements under the NEV production system will require more R&D investment and more advanced NEV production capability. The leading players with first-mover advantage will thus be the major beneficiaries. On the micro level, we think that a few listed local OEMs such as BYD [1211.HK] and BAIC [1958.HK] will be able to meet new standard in 2018 and The market also believes that Geely [0175.HK] should be comfortably able to meet government s requirements, given its new NEV line-up. Automakers with significant exposure to the highfuel-consumption vehicle segment will be hurt by the new policy. Potential beneficiaries and losers. Potential beneficiaries of the credit-based system and new policy on the EV sector include BAIC, BYD Coslight [1043.HK], Tianneng [0819.HK], and Xinyi HK [8328.HK]. However, it seems that Chaowei s [0951.HK] acid-lead battery operation has been hit by high raw material costs, and its shares may come under pressure due to concerns about profitability (link to industry news flow: In our latest key takeaways from our meeting with Guoxuan High-tech Co., Ltd [ CH], we highlighted that Guoxuan High-tech Co., Ltd is also one of the key beneficiaries, as the market is now re-rating battery capacity in China. Suppliers of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt will also see stronger demand under the new policy. Companies with higher exposure to the high-fuel-consumption segment, such as Great Wall Motor [2333.HK], may suffer significantly from the new policies if they fail to achieve the new targets set by the Chinese government. 2

3 Figure 1: MIIT credit system MIIT Average fuel consumption standard New energy vehicle production standard Positive Negative Positive Negative Internal transferable Tradable Sources: MIIT, NDRC, Internet, CGIS Research Figure 2: MIIT s new energy vehicle production standard Driving range Car Type R R < R < R < 350 R 350 Pure EV Passenger vehicle / PHEV Passenger vehicle / Sources: MIIT, Internet, CGIS Research 3

4 Figure 3: Monthly new energy vehicle sales volume Units Sales Volume (units) YoY (%) 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, /14 03/15 06/15 09/15 12/15 03/16 06/16 09/16 12/16 03/17 06/17 Sources: WIND, CGIS Research 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% -100% Figure 4: MIIT s new energy vehicle production ratio target Year New energy vehicle production Target ratio / / / 10% 12% Sources: MIIT, Internet, CGIS Research 4

5 Figure 5: Peer comparison Sector Ticker Company PE EV/EBITDA P/B ROE ROA Div yield Share Price Performance F 3M 6M 12M Price Market Cap 2017F 2018F 2019F 2017F 2018F 2019F F F F 1M YTD Lcy US$m x x x x x x x x % % % % % % % % % % % Automaker PV 1211 HK Byd Co Ltd-H , n.a HK Geely Automobile Holdings Lt , HK Guangzhou Automobile Group-H , HK Great Wall Motor Company-H , HK Baic Motor Corp Ltd-H , HK O Luxe Holdings Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8 n.a n.a. 0.7 n.a. 0.0 n.a Bus CH Saic Motor Corp Ltd-A , n.a CH Zhengzhou Yutong Bus Co -A , n.a CH Zhongtong Bus & Holding Co-A , n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.3 n.a n.a. n.a CH Anhui Ankai Automobile-A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.1 n.a. 4.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. n.a CH Beiqi Foton Motor Co Ltd-A , n.a n.a HK China Dynamics Holdings Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.3 n.a n.a n.a. 0.0 n.a HK Fdg Electric Vehicles Ltd ,134 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.0 n.a n.a Average CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A , n.a CH Beijing Easpring Material-A , n.a Cathode materials CH Citic Guoan Information-A , n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.2 n.a. 3.5 n.a. 2.1 n.a. n.a. n.a CH China Baoan Group-A ,897 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.3 n.a. 5.2 n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a CH Kingray New Materials Sci -A , n.a. n.a. n.a CH Hengdian Group Dmegc -A , n.a CH Jiangxi Special Electric -A , n.a n.a n.a Anode material CH Jiangsu Guotai Int Group -A , n.a CH China Baoan Group-A ,897 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.3 n.a. 5.2 n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A , n.a Li-ion battery separator CH Fspg Hi-Tech Co Ltd -A ,149 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 3.6 n.a. 6.0 n.a. 2.7 n.a. n.a. n.a CH Zhejiang Nanyang Technolog-A , n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.0 n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Shenzhen Hifuture Electric-A , n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a. n.a CH Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic -A , n.a CH Jiangsu Guotai Int Group -A , n.a Electrolytic solution CH Shenzhen Capchem Technolog-A , n.a CH Do-Fluoride Chemicals Co-A , n.a. n.a CH Jiangsu Bicon Pharmaceutic-A , n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.7 n.a n.a. 5.4 n.a. n.a. n.a CH Ningbo Shanshan Co Ltd-A , n.a Power core CH Sichuan Chengfei Integrat -A , n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.4 n.a. 7.9 n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. n.a CH Zhejiang Narada Power Sour-A , n.a CH Shenzhen Desay Battery Tec-A , n.a BMS CH Sunwoda Electronic Co Ltd-A , n.a CH Shenzhen Topband Co Ltd -A , n.a. n.a. n.a n.a CH Ningbo Joyson Electronic -A , n.a Lithium materials CH Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co-A , n.a CH Tibet Mineral Development-A ,573 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.0 n.a. 1.1 n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Qinghai Salt Lake Industry-A ,136 n.a n.a CH Tianqi Lithium Industr Ind-A , n.a Battery 1043 HK Coslight Technology Intl Gp n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.7 n.a. 7.4 n.a. 1.7 n.a. 0.0 n.a CH Guoxuan High-Tech Co Ltd , n.a CH Eve Energy Co Ltd-A , n.a HK Tianneng Power Intl Ltd , HK Chaowei Power Holdings Ltd HK Fdg Kinetic Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.8 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a HK Hybrid Kinetic Group Ltd n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.4 n.a n.a n.a. 0.0 n.a HK Xinyi Automobile Glass Hong n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 8.4 n.a. 0.1 n.a. 0.1 n.a. 0.0 n.a Super Capacitor 894 HK Man Yue Technology Holdings n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.5 n.a n.a. 1.2 n.a. 0.0 n.a CH Nantong Jianghai Capacitor-A ,259 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.8 n.a. 6.4 n.a. 6.2 n.a. n.a. n.a Average Permanent magnetic material CH Beijing Zhongke Sanhuan Hi-A , n.a CH Jilin Sino-Microelectronic-A n.a. n.a. n.a n.a CH Zhongshan Broad Ocean Moto-A , n.a HK Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric , n.a Motor driver CH Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A , n.a CH Zhejiang Founder Motor Co -A n.a CH Beijing Zhongke Sanhuan Hi-A , n.a CH Jiugui Liquor Co Ltd-A , n.a. n.a CH Jiangxi Special Electric -A , n.a n.a n.a CH Ningbo Yunsheng (Group) Co-A , n.a CH Wolong Electric Group Co L-A , n.a n.a CH Xinzhi Motor Co Ltd-A , n.a n.a CH Hunan Corun New Energy Co-A , n.a. n.a. n.a n.a n.a. 0.0 n.a Average n.a Charging equpment CH Shenzhen Auto Electric Pow-A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.1 n.a. 1.2 n.a. 1.9 n.a. n.a. n.a CH Nari Technology Co Ltd-A , n.a CH Sieyuan Electric Co Ltd-A , n.a n.a CH Shanghai Potevio Co Ltd - A n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.8 n.a n.a n.a. n.a. n.a CH Shenzhen Kstar Science And-A , n.a CH Suzhou Industrial Park Hes-A n.a HK China Titans Energy Technolo n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.5 n.a. 1.4 n.a. 1.6 n.a. 0.0 n.a HK Wasion Group Holdings Ltd HK Zte Corp-H , HK Jiangnan Group Ltd Average HSI Index Hang Seng Index HSCEI Index Hang Seng China Ent Indx SHCOMP Index Shanghai Se Composite MXCN Index Msci China Sources: Bloomberg, Company, CGIS Research 5

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公司 / 行业新闻 INDUSTRY UPDATE Electric vehicle sector Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) 3698 6318; Recent news flow from lead

公司 / 行业新闻 INDUSTRY UPDATE Electric vehicle sector Analyst: Mark Po, CFA; Tel: (852) 3698 6318; Recent news flow from lead 公司 / 行业新闻行业更新电动汽车行业分析员 : 布家杰, CFA; 电话 : (852) 3698 6318; markpo@chinastock.com.hk 2015 年 7 月 15 日近日一些有关汽车制造商龙头如华晨中国 [1114.HK] 和长城汽车 [2333.HK] 的消息, 确认了中国