22 5 2014 10 JOURNAL OF BASIC SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Vol 22 No 5 October 2014 1005-0930 2014 05-0916-012 doi 10 3969 /j issn 1005-0930 2014 05 008 P954 A 1 2 2 3 1 2 3 1 100875 2 / 100875 3 100875 1978 2007 OEP AEP OEP AEP AEP 60 1-2 3 2013-09-26 2014-04-08 2013YB21 41401097 2012DFG20710 1983 E-mail juan du@ bnu edu cn 1959 E-mail spj@ bnu edu cn
No 5 917 Risk = Hazard Vulnerability 4 Risk = Probability Consequences 5 6 7 8-10 1 1 1 11 Dong 12 Occurrence Loss Exceedance Probability OEP Aggregate Loss Exceedance Probability AEP OEP OEP Probable Maximum Loss PML AEP AEP n λ i L OEP F L max > l k = F max L 1 L 2 L n > l k = 1 - P L < l k 1 P L < l k l k L max = max L 1 L 2 L n L max OEP n L max l k
918 Vol 22 AEP Dong 12 AEP F L A > l k n = F L 1 + L 2 + + L n > l k = 1 - P L < l k 2 L A = L 1 + L 2 + + L n L A AEP n l k 1 2 OEP AEP 1 1 Table 1 Rainstorm flood event table /t /mm /t 1 v 1 w 1 z 1 λ 1 L 1 2 v 2 w 2 z 2 λ 2 L 2 N v n w n z n λ n L n 1 3 OEP AEP OEP AEP 1 13 14-15 X 0 1 2 P X = k = λk e -λ k k = 0 1 2 3 k = 0P X = 0 = e - λ P = P X > 0 = 1 - P 0 = 1 - e - λ λ λ = - ln 1 - P x R n 1 f x μ σ = σ 槡 2πlnx e - lnx-μ 2 2σ 2 4
No 5 919 M OEP AEP Fig 1 1 OEP AEP Flowchart of calculating OEP and AEP based on Monte Carlo simulation 2 2 1 13 4 6 16 30 1978 2007 2 2 2 30 12
920 Vol 22 λ i 3 2 Table 2 14 Annual flood frequency of 14 cities in Hunan Province 1978 2007 λ i 113 30 3 77 177 30 5 9 377 30 12 57 297 30 9 9 386 30 12 87 237 30 7 9 280 30 9 33 132 30 4 4 218 30 7 27 219 30 7 3 317 30 10 57 61 30 2 03 248 30 8 27 200 30 6 67 2 3 6 17 3 24h 50 99 9mm 100 250mm 250mm Table 3 3 Classification of rainfall by meteorological office 24h /mm 10 0 10 0 24 9 25 0 49 9 50 0 99 9 100 0 249 9 250 0 24h > 25mm 3 24 25 0 49 9mm DY 24 50 0 99 9mm BY
No 5 921 24 100 0mm DBY 3 DY P total P total 50mm DYⅠ50mm < P total 200mm DYⅡP total > 200mm DYⅢ BY P total 100mm BYⅠ100mm < P total 200mm BYⅡP total > 200mm BYⅢ DBY P total 200mm DBYⅠ200mm < P total 300mm BYⅡP total > 300mm BYⅢ 2 4 2812 9 ARENA Gamma Normal Weibull Beta 4 4 4 4 Table 4 Square error of Gamma Normal Weibull and Beta distribution fitting Gamma Normal Weibull Beta DYⅠ 0 0126 0 00605 0 00392 0 0038 DYⅡ 0 00671 0 00236 0 00279 0 00384 DYⅢ 0 0435 0 0175 0 019 0 0206 BYⅠ 0 00944 0 00387 0 00268 0 00356 BYⅡ 0 0104 0 00382 0 00272 0 00371 BYⅢ 0 0336 0 0147 0 0157 0 0192 DBYⅠ 0 011 0 00298 0 00249 0 00302 DBYⅡ 0 0206 0 00862 0 00727 0 00768 DBYⅢ 0 0266 0 0144 0 0119 0 0024 4 2 5 30 1
922 Vol 22 3 2 14 OEP AEP OEP AEP 2 1% 200% AEP 5 0 001 129 96 111 47 5 6 92 0 1 68 77 0 005 Table 5 5 AEP OEP The comparison of AEP and OEP of Changsha City A / B / A-B /B 100 /% 0 001 129 9596 111 4716 16 59 0 002 113 6261 102 3791 10 98 0 005 68 8083 68 7743 0 05 0 010 41 7687 38 7513 7 79 0 020 24 5023 23 2169 5 54 0 050 12 7711 9 3066 37 23 0 100 6 9235 5 5087 25 68 0 200 3 2712 2 4822 31 79 AEP 3 4 3 339
No 5 923
924 Vol 22 Fig 3 3 Direct loss risk distribution map of rainstrom flood in Hunan Province AAFL 18 AAFL AAFL = Δ f i D i Δ f i D i 6 3 2 10 1 8
No 5 925 Table 6 6 Average annual flood loss of 14 cities in Hunan Province / / 3 2143 3 5554 5 3949 5 2458 9 3658 5 9462 7 0503 7 0674 9 9770 5 5266 6 3360 1 8012 6 4289 5 3516 4 OEP AEP 14 OEP AEP 1% 200% AEP 12 300 60 50 20 14 10 1 8 1 J 2006 61 2 127-138 Xu Shiyuan Wang Jun Shi Chun et al Research of the natural disaster risk on coastal cities J ACTA Geographic Sinica 2006 61 2 127-138 2 J 2010 65 5 553-652 Yin Zhan'e Xu Shiyuan Yin Jie et al Small-scale based scenario modeling and disaster risk assessment of urban rainstorm water-logging J Acta Geographica Sinica 2010 65 5 553-652
926 Vol 22 3 J 2010 6 5 148-153 He Chuan Liu Gongzhi Ren Zhigang et al Comparative analysis of several worldwide disaster risk assessment models J Journal of Safety Science and Technology 2010 6 5 148-153 4 Wisner B Blaikie P Cannon T et al At risk Natural hazards people's vulnerability and disasters 2nd ed M London Routledge 2004 5 Schneider S H Kuntz-Duriseti K Uncertainty and climate change policy M Schneider S H Rosencranz A Niles J-O Climate change policy A survey Washington D C Island Press 2002 6 J 2005 14 6 1-7 Shi Peijun Theory and practice on disaster system research in a fourth time J Journal of Natural Disasters 2005 14 6 1-7 7 D 2010 Du Juan Integrated flood risk assessment and risk governance in Hunan Province D Beijing Beijing Normal University 2010 8 J 2007 14 4 180-185 Chen Xiang Assessment and management of rainstorm-flood hazard risk in Fujian Province J Research of Soil and Water Conservation 2007 14 4 180-185 9 J 2006 15 6 38-44 Du Juan He Fei Shi Peijun Integrated flood risk assessment of Xiangjiang river basin in China J Journal of Natural Disaster 2006 15 6 38-44 10 Tran P Shaw R Chantry G et al GIS and local knowledge in disaster management A case study of flood risk mapping in Viet Nam J Disasters 2009 33 1 152-169 11 J 2008 16 3 382-392 Shi Xing Huang Chongfu A preliminary study on insurability of natural disaster risk J Journal of Basic Science and Engineering 2008 16 3 382-392 12 Dong W M Building a more profitable portfolio Modern portfolio theory with application to catastrophe insurance M London Reactions Publishing Group 2002 13 Hsu W K Huang P C Chang C C et al An integrated flood risk assessment model for property insurance industry in Taiwan J Natural Hazards 2011 58 1295-1309 14 Shaw D Huang H Ho M Modeling flood loss and risk perception the case of Typhoon Nari in Taipei R The Fifth Annual IIASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management Innovations in Science and Policy Beijing 2005 15 D 2004 Luo Yilun A Benefit-cost analysis of flood mitigation strategies in Keelung River Basin D Taiwan Master Dissertation of Taipei University 2004 16 M 1999 Wang Xiaozhong Floods in Hunan Province and prevention M Changsha Hunan People's Publishing House 1999 17 2006 R 2007 Wang Yi Analysis of property insurance catastrophes in China 2006 R Beijing China Financial and Economic Publishing House 2007 18 Hardison C H Jennings M E Bias in computed flood risk J Journal of the Hydraulics Division 1972 98 3 415-427
No 5 927 A Probabilistic Approach of Assessing Rainstorm-induced Flood Loss Risk Based on Historical Event Records Case Study in Hunan Province China DU Juan 1 2 WANG Ming 2 3 SHI Peijun 1 3 1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural disaster Ministry of Education of China Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China 2 Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education P R China Beijing 100875 China 3 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resources Ecology Beijing Normal University Beijing 100875 China Abstract The economic losses caused by rainstorm floods are tremendous every year in China Flood risk is increasingly being recognized as a concern in both government and insurance company This article employs the probabilistic model to assess the risk of direct economic losses caused by rainstorm floods in Hunan province based on historical event records from 1978 to 2007 The Monte Carlo simulation is carried out to generate the flood event table and develop exceedance probability curves for flood losses including Occurrence Loss Exceedance Probability OEP and Aggregate Loss Exceedance Probability AEP curves The article finally utilizes these curves to calculate the Probable Maximum Loss PML and Total Losses at different return periods and to estimate Average Annual Loss AAL of every city in Hunan province The study reveals that the intensity of hazards is not necessarily proportional to the magnitude of disasters AEP curves can provide more accurate information for flood-prone areas Meanwhile the results indicate that the spatial distribution of flood losses is nonuniform at different return periods For the 1000-year return period Yiyang will become the highest risk city of flood losses for the 100-year return period Huaihua and Chenzhou will have largest losses among all cities the total losses will both exceed 6 billion RMB for the 50-year and 10-year return periods Huaihua will remain the highest risk city of flood losses Conversely Zhangjiajie is the city of lightest economic losses at various risk levels The assessment results are the data foundation for risk mapping It can be used as a reference for policy-makers to make effective flood risk management plan It could also serve the insurance industry for business development strategies Keywords flood disaster direct economic losses exceedance probability risk assessment Hunan province 2