E 系列飞机助飞低成本航空 E-Jets For Low Cost Carriers ICAO/CAAC 低成本航空运输研讨会 ICAO/CAAC Symposium on Low Cost Carriers 王凤鸣巴西航空工业中国区商用飞机市场总监 Philip Wang, Director, Airline Marketing, Embraer China November 2013
低成本航空运营的核心问题 Key Questions for Low Cost Carriers 低成本航空如何选择好的市场? What are the good markets for LCC? 针对这些市场如何选择合适的飞机? What are the right aircraft for those markets? 如何为乘客提供有价值的服务? How to bring value to customers?
巴西蔚蓝航空的成长 The Journey of Azul 2008.12 2 架 E195 开始服务 3 个城市 2 E195 covers 3 cities 2009.08 搭乘第 1 百万位旅客, 世界成长最快的航空公司 Carriers 1 millionth passenger, fastest growing airline in the world 2010.05 入选世界 30 最炙热品牌之一 One of 30 hottest brands 2012.05 蔚蓝航空与旅途航空合并 Merge with Trip 2012.09 搭乘第 2 千万位旅客 20 million passengers carried 2012.12 选为世界最佳低成本航空公司 (by CAPA) Best Low-Cost Airline in the world ( by CAPA) 2013.07 3 次获得拉美最佳低成本航空公司 (by Skytrax) 3 times Best Low-Cost Airline in the Latin America ( by Skytrax )
蔚蓝航空的成功经验 #1: 寻找 蓝海 市场 Azul Success Factor #1: Find the blue sea markets 开辟新市场 Develop new markets 通过差异化服务进入和刺激现有市场 Compete in and stimulate existing markets using differentiated products 双头垄断 : 93% 市场份额 Share TAM Duopoly : 93% Market Gol
蔚蓝航空的成功经验 #1 寻找 蓝海 市场 Azul Success Factor #1: Find the blue sea markets 蔚蓝航空成立前 Before Azul 蔚蓝航空成立后 After Azul 45 个通航机场 105 个通航机场 Destinations Gol TAM + Azul Destinatio
寻找中国的蓝海市场 Find Chinese Blue Sea markets 50% 机场少于 10 个通航点 <10 Destinations Served 50% 机场每天少于 4 个航班 <4 flights per day 330 国内及区域国际未通航市场 Un-served domestic and regional international markets 总计 185 个民航机场中 : Within the total 185 airports 通航城市 Destination Served <10 通航城市 Destination Served 11-40 通航城市 Destination Served 41-70 通航城市 Destination Served 71-100 通航城市 Destination Served >101
蔚蓝航空的成功经验 #2: 使用合适座级的飞机 Azul Success Factor #2: Use Right-sized Aircraft 用于开辟更多直达航线 : 从 2008 年开航时的 2 条到 2013 年的 120 条 把一个中型城市 Campinas 发展成一个枢纽 (Campinas 位于圣保罗北 100 公里 ) 支持航班量快速增长 :2009 年的 23,000 班到 2012 年底的 220,000 班 运力更好匹配需求 : 巴西 85% 的国内航班客流量为 60-119 能够在中低流量的市场上获利, 竞争对手 150-180 座级机型太大了 能够提供多班次 : 多过竞争对手班次, 吸引高收益旅客, 更好衔接枢纽 独占市场, 在受限制机场能享独家地位
蔚蓝航空的成功经验 #2: 使用合适座级的飞机 Azul Success Factor #2: Use Right-sized Aircraft Entering new markets: 2 city pairs in 2008 to 120 city pairs in 2013 Turning Campinas (100 km north of Sao Paulo) into a hub Airport Supporting rapid growth:23,000 flights in 2009 to 220,000 flights in 2012 Optimizing capacity:85% Brazil domestic flights demand of 60-119 pax Profitably serving markets too small for competitors 150-180 seaters Offering more frequencies than competitors: more flexibility and attractiveness to high yield customers; better connections at hubs Dominate the markets especially in restricted airports
变动成本对比 Variable Cost Comparison 52,036 40,028 6,905 4,804 4,142 30% 9,805 5,298 4,434 24,176 32,499 120 座飞机 170 座飞机 航油消耗机组机务维护起降地服航路 Assumption 假设条件典型航段距离 Typical Length 1100km 航油价格 Fuel Price 7500 元 CNY / 吨 Ton 机组薪水 ( 机长 / 副驾驶 / 空乘 ) 120/40/12 万元 *10,000 CNY Crew Wage ( CAP/FO/FA)
油耗对比 Fuel Burn Comparison 2.5 吨 Ton 1.83 吨 Ton 37% 120 座飞机 170 座飞机 典型航段 Typical Length 1100km, 每轮挡小时油耗 Fuel burn per block hour
起降地服航路费对比 Airport & Navigation Fees Comparison 9,805 元 6,905 元 42% 120 座飞机 170 座飞机 按二类机场, 客座率 75% 测算 CATII, Load factor 75%
利用率能更高 Higher Utilization 过站时间小于 20 分钟 Turn time less than 20 minutes 维修间隔更长 Longer maintenance intervals 无需跟机放行 No transit maintenance dispatcher
单班利润 Profit per Flight [RMB] 每旅客成本更低 Cost per Passenger is Lower 80,000 60,000 边际利润 vs. 单班需求 Marginal Profit vs. Demand per flight 120 seater 170 seater 40,000 20,000 0-20,000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170-40,000-60,000 单班需求 Passenger Demand per Flight
85% 的巴西国内航班乘客不足 120 85% flights in Brazilian domestic are less than 120 passengers 航班比例 Share of Frequencies 60% 50% 85% 48% 40% 35% 30% 20% 10% 0% 14% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 1-29 30-59 60-89 90-119 120-149 150-178 180-209 210-240 平均单班旅客数量 Average pax per flight
76% 的中国航班乘客不足 120 76% flights in China carry less than 120 passengers 平均单班旅客数量 Average pax per flight 航班比例 Share of Frequencies 30% 25% 76% 25% 25% 20% 15% 12% 16% 10% 9% 5% 0% 1% 4% 4% 1% 1% 1%
航班频次不足 Insufficient frequency 航班比例 Share of Frequencies 45% 40% 35% 68% 42% 30% 25% 26% 20% 15% 10% 9% 10% 10% 5% 0% 3% <1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 >5 每日单向班次 Frequency Per Day Each Way
务 Azul Success Factor #3: Offer more value to customers 更舒适宽敞的座舱体验 : 没有中间座位, 间距更长, 座椅更宽 More comfortable cabin experience: No middle seats, more pitch, wider seats 大方提供零食和饮料 ; 空乘训练有素, 轻松 活泼 Generous snacks and beverages; empowered, well-trained crews, Informal service style 提供直播电视 Live TV 往来枢纽机场的免费穿梭巴士, 远程办理值机 Free shuttle services at major hubs, remote Check-in.
蔚蓝航空的高速运量增长 Azul High Traffic Growth 30 20 Growing ASKs ( 十亿 billions) Azul TRIP 30 20 Growing pax transported ( 百万 millions) Azul TRIP 10 0 4.1 2.5 16.7 1.4 19.4 2.7 5.2 8.6 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 10 0 1.4 3.2 2 2.1 4.4 4.7 8.2 17.1 21.7 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
蔚蓝航空的成就 Achievements of Azul Manaus Fernando de Noronha 刺激需求 Demand Stimulated 运输量大增 Rapid traffic growth Cuiabá Goiânia 增加市场份额 Market share increased Campo Grande Campinas Belo Horizonte Vitoria 70 个城市占主导,42 个城市独飞 70 leading cities, sole operator in 42 cities Curitiba Azul Gol TAM
蔚蓝经验值得借鉴
E 系列飞机助飞低成本航空 E-Jets for LCC Business models
For further information, please contact: EMBRAER CHINA Tel: +86 10 6598 9988 Fax: +86 10 6598 9986 www.embraer.com.cn April 2013 The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the assumptions shown and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, EMBRAER will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.