Long-term Fuel Economy Improvement Technologies and CO2 Reduction Strategies 远期轻型车节油路径选择和温室气体减排战略 Beijing, 5 June 2014 Dr. Lewis Fulton, NextSTEPS Program, Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis 2014 年 6 月 5 日 Lewis Fulton 博士, NextSTEPS 项目 加州大学戴维斯分校交通研究所 H 2 www.steps.ucdavis.edu
The long term 远期的含义 Thinking out to 2030, 2050, and beyond How far can we go (and must we go) with fuel economy improvement, CO2 reductions? What are our options? Is there a logical pathway? How do we get there? 考虑到 2030 年 2050 年甚至更长远 我们能在燃油效率改善 CO 2 减排的道路上走多远 我们必须走多远? 我们有什么样的选择? 有没有一条合理的路径? 如何达到目标? 2
The options 我们的选择 Improve conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle efficiency to the limit Adopt low-carbon alternative fuels and power train systems Biofuel Battery electric Fuel cell electric 将传统内燃机效率推到极限 采用低碳替代燃料和动力总成系统 生物质燃料 电池 燃料电池 Some acronyms: ICE = internal combustion engine BEV = battery electric vehicles PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicles FCV or FCEV = fuel cell electric vehicles PEV = Plug-in electric vehicles (BEV+PHEV) ZEV = Zero emission vehicles (BEV+PHEV+ FCEV) 3
2010 2030 2050 2075 2010 2030 2050 2075 2010 2030 2050 2075 2010 2030 2050 2075 2010 2030 2050 2075 2010 2030 2050 2075 2010 2030 2050 2075 EJ IEA ETP-2012 Extensions (Fulton et al, draft paper) IEA 报告 50 By 2050, Passenger Light-duty Vehicles (PLDVs) are moving strongly toward electrification; Biofuels shifting to use in heavier modes (trucks, ships, aircraft) 在 2050 年前, 乘用车电动化的趋势强劲 ; 大型车辆或交通部门 ( 如货运卡车 船运 航空 ) 则更多采用生物质燃料 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Electricity Hydrogen CNG/LPG GTL/CTL Biofuel Kerosene HFO Diesel Gasoline 电能氢能 CNG/LPG 汽转液 / 煤转汽 生物燃料煤油重油柴油汽油 PLDV Bus Rail Air Road freight Rail Water 乘用车公交车铁路航空道路货运 Passenger transport 客运部门 铁路货运 Freight transport 货运部门 水路货运 4
By 2050 the world will need to shift to selling mainly near-zero emissions vehicles (plug-ins, or PEVs) 在 2050 年前全球新车市场要转型成接近零排放 ( 插电式和纯电动 ) Fuel Cell Electric (FCEV) Battery Electric (BEV) Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) Hybrids (HEV) 关键 : 在 改善情景 下, 纯电动 插电式混合动力和燃料电池车一共占到 2050 年新车市场的 75% Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (2012) OECD/IEA 2012
百万辆 But the next 2-decades will likely be ICE-driven, even with rapid Plug-in Vehicle (PEV) growth 但接下来 20 年可能仍是传统内燃机当道, 尽管插电式车辆会有显著增长 Note: this aligns with the IEA ETP 2012 2DS Scenario except with only 5 million PEV sales by 2020 instead of 20 million. 注 : 这与国际能源署 2012 年 ETP 报告中 2DS 情景一致, 唯一区别是对 PEV 的估计是 5 百万而不是 2 千万 6
Maximum Fuel Economy Improvements to 2030 到 2030 年最大燃油效率改善 From the NRC 2013 report: Light-weighting of up to 25% in 2030, 50% in 2050 relative to 2010 High efficiency accessories (e.g. air conditioning, lighting, tires) High efficiency engines (including but not limited to hybridization) E.g. 25% improvement from turbocharged, downsized direct injection gasoline engines Overall Impacts: By 2030, potential for 50% reduction in fuel consumption/co2 per km at $2000-3500 per vehicle (through hybridization) 66% reduction by 2050 at somewhat higher cost 根据 NRC 2013 年报告 : 2030 年实现最高 25% 减重,2050 年实现 50% 减重, 都是相对 2010 年 高效附件的应用 ( 如空调 照明 轮胎等 ) 高效发动机 ( 包括混合动力 ) 如通过使用涡轮增压 发动机小型化和汽油直喷发动机实现油耗改善 25% 总的改善 2030 年前实现 50% 油耗或二氧化碳率减少, 对应成本在 2000-3500 美元 ( 通过混合动力化 ) 2050 年前以较高成本实现 66% 改善 7
LDV efficiency improvements still have tremendous potential 轻型车能效改善仍有很大潜力 CO2 g/km Litres / 100km Gals / 100 mi 386 16.4 7 ICE potential, through hybridization and light-weighting (NRC, 2013) 内燃机的潜力包括混合动力化和轻量化 ( 国家科学院 NRC2013 年报告 ) 331 14.1 6 276 11.7 5 221 9.4 4 165 7.0 3 110 4.7 2 55 2.3 1 0 0.0 0 8
技术成本 ( 千欧元 ) The cost of fuel economy improvements will likely decline over time 燃油效率改善的成本逐年递减 Analysis for the IEA Technology Roadmap on Fuel Economy of Road Vehicles showed that fuel economy of passenger cars could be improved by 50% at additional costs of around 3000 per car IEA 道路机动车燃油经济性技术路线图 里显示乘用车燃油效率可在每车 3000 欧元左右的增量成本下提高 50% OECD/IEA 2012
Long-term costs of technologies will drop but by how much? 在长期新技术的成本会下降 - 关键是降多少? Cost (RPE) for vehicle technologies over time (NRC, 2013) RPE=retail price equivalent; BEV=Battery electric vehicle, PHEV=plug-in hybrid, FCV=fuel cell vehicle, HEV=hybrid electric vehicle, CNG=compressed natural gas, ICE= internal combustion engine vehicle. 10
Some cost/benefit estimates 成本收益分析 FE Improvement, hybrids, PEVs v. a base ICE vehicle over time 燃油效率改善 : 混合动力 插电式车辆与基准内燃机汽车比较 Notes: FE 30% =fuel economy improved by 30% in L/100km; PHEV-20 = plug-in hybrid with 20 km electric range; fuel savings estimated over 160k kms of driving; all related to a base gasoline vehicle of 9 L/100km; oil prices $100/bbl near term, $130/bbl long term; battery costs decline over time from $600 to about $300/kWh 11
Electric vehicle v. ICE, with declining power plant CO2 emissions 在上游电厂 CO2 排放不断下降的走势下, 电动车和内燃机车的比较 BEV, modest efficiency Efficient ICE LDV, 2014 Best HEV, 2020? BEV, more efficient Best HEV, 2050? Battery electric vehicles will probably be needed to get below 50 g/km, but we will also need deeply decarbonized electricity generation (Based on NRC, 2013 assumptions for fuel economy) 12
2DS ET electricity demand 2DS ET 情景下电能需求量 电能需求 交通能源消耗 交通建筑农业工业汽油柴油其他化石电能生物质氢能 but still total electricity demand for transport accounts for only 13% of total electricity use by 2050 到 2050 年前交通部门总的电能需求仍只有 13% OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel Cell Vehicles the other guy 燃料电池车 - 另一种选择 Fuel cell vehicles may provide longer range mobility than BEVs, with zero vehicular emissions Still some significant barriers on-board H2 storage, fuel cell system cost, chicken-egg problems Costs have dropped sharply in recent years estimated likely to be below $100/kW (or $7500 for a 75kW system) at high volume production within a few years, and competitive with gasoline vehicles by 2030) In 2015 we will see the roll out of FCEV programs in California, EU and Japan a renaissance for FCEVs? Must have zero carbon hydrogen (e.g. electrolysis), not cost effective at this time 燃料电池车可以提供比电动车更长的续航里程, 同样也是零尾气排放 仍需克服主要障碍 车载氢能存储, 燃料电池系统高成本, 鸡生蛋蛋生鸡的问题 近年成本下降很快 随着不久的将来量产化进程, 估计会下降到低于 $100/kW ( 或 75kW 的系统造价在 $7500 ), 在 2030 年前成为汽油车的竞争对手 2015 年左右会看到加州 欧盟和日本燃料电池车的 复苏 必须要有零碳排放的氢能 ( 即电解 ), 现在来说不具有成本效益 14
Some conclusions 一些结论 There remains substantial untapped fuel economy potential there is no reason to think that we can t get well below 90 g/km average new car fuel economy worldwide by 2030 (in China, perhaps by 2025) Technology costs will likely decline over time, new technologies will emerge Battery electric vehicles are important in the long term to move toward zero-emissions; but this must happen in concert with electricity improvements In any case, to meet climate targets, strong efforts to expand BEV production and sales, and reduce costs, must happen now Strong co-benefit potential with air quality improvements and cutting oil use 对于燃油效率的提高还有很多未开发的潜能, 没有理由相信我们不能在 2030 年实现全球平均新车 CO2 排放在 90 克 / 公里以下 ( 中国可能是 2025 年 ) 技术的成本不断下降 新技术不断涌现 电动车对于实现远期未来零排放车队很重要, 但前提是电厂排放须同步减少 无论如何, 为实现温室气体减排目标, 需要大力推进电动车的生产和销售 降低成本, 这些需要从现在做起 对于改善空气质量和减少油耗也有协同作用 15
Some Implications for Policy 一些政策建议 To go for rapid uptake of BEVs, super credits probably can not do this alone Price incentives will likely play an important role Incentives require a sustainable funding source, e.g. feebates Eventually move toward global alignment of policies? Could include targets, measurement systems, tradable credit systems 为大幅推动电动车, 达标配额激励这一项政策措施可能不够 价格刺激可能起到主要作用 为了能持续提供价格激励, 需要稳定的财政来源, 比如财税奖惩可以达到激励左右同时为政府平衡财政来源 最终全球是否会走到政策协同? 协同可以包括共同的目标 衡量体系和配额交易系统 16
Thank You! 谢谢! Lew Fulton lmfulton@ucdavis.edu