RESEARCH 研究报告 SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q1 2015 上海写字楼市场报告 2015 第一季度
DIVERSIFICATION OF OFFICE LOCATIONS BECOMES AN INCREASING TREND During the first quarter (Q1) of 2015, 303,000 sqm of new Grade-A offices were added to the Shanghai market, a 20.9% increase quarter on quarter. Of this new supply, approximately 60,000 sqm came from the recently completed Two ICC on Huaihai Middle Road. The office leasing market was subdued during the Chinese New Year holiday with reduced absorption levels recorded. Core business districts were almost fully leased with the occupancy rate in Pudong reaching 99.6%. The most active tenants in core business districts were from the financial and TMT (Technology, Media, Telecom) sectors. A growing number of office tenants were choosing to move to emerging districts due to their abundant supply, improved working environment and accessibility as well cost advantages. The rents of Grade-A offices in emerging districts are expected to be generally low due to the competitive supply. Looking ahead, the overall rents of Grade-A offices in Shanghai are expected to continuously edge down over the coming year. However, rents will remain stable in core business districts such as Little Lujiazui and Nanjing West Road where new supply will be limited. TABLE 1 Shanghai Grade-A office market indicators Indicator Q1 2015 figure QoQ change Outlook (Q2 2015) New supply 303,000 sqm 20.9% Rental RMB 8.9 / sqm / day 0.5% Vacancy rate 4.6% 1.6 percentage points Capital value RMB 52,066 / sqm 1.1% Yield 6.3% 2
SHANGHAI OFFICE MARKET REPORT Q1 2015 RESEARCH RENTS AND PRICES A considerable amount of new supply was added to emerging business districts over the past two quarters. As a result, the average rent of Grade-A offices slightly fell 0.5% in the first quarter of 2015 to RMB8.9 per sqm per day. The average rent of Pudong Grade-A offices continued to increase. After rising continuously during the past year, the average rent of Grade-A offices in Pudong grew further to reach RMB9.9 per sqm per day during Q1 2015, up 1.7% quarter on quarter and 7.9% year on year. While the supply shortage in Little Lujiazui is expected to ease after the completion of Shanghai Tower with office gross floor area (GFA) of 220,000 sqm in Q2, the launch of this building may further push up rents in the area. Business parks, such as Linkong and Caohejing, became more popular during Q1 due to their competitive rents luring tenants seeking cost savings. Rising demand was increasingly driven by tenants from the services industries. However, the average rent for business parks is expected to stay low at RMB3.6 per sqm per day because of the large amount of stock currently available as well as abundant new supply in the pipeline. In the strata-title sales market, the average price of office buildings decreased 1.1% quarter to quarter to RMB52,066 per sqm in Q1 2015. FIGURE 1 Grade-A office rental and price indices 2003Q1=100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TABLE 2 Grade-A office market indicators, Q1 2015 Submarket Rental Index Price Index Rent (RMB/sqm/day) Rent % change (QoQ) Vacancy Rate Vacancy rate percentage point change (QoQ) Huangpu 9.0 3.7% 0.5 Jing an 10.5 1.2% 5.2% Pudong 9.9 1.7% 0.5% Xuhui 8.9 1.8% Changning 7.7 0.7% 7.5% 2.0 TABLE 3 Major Grade-A office leasing transactions, Q1 2015 District Building Zone Area (sqm) Rent (RMB/sqm/day) Changning The Place Middle 5,000 7.5 Huangpu Hong Yi Plaza High 1,000 8.8 Jing an Kerry Centre Tower 1 High 1,300 9.8 Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation TABLE 4 Major Grade-A office strata-title sales transactions, Q1 2015 District Building Floor Area (sqm) Price (RMB/sqm) Xuhui Magnolia Plaza 10th floor unit 238 56,218 Hongkou Beyond the Bund 15th floor unit 207 55,894 Zhabei Suhe Creek 9th floor unit 159 55,149 Source: : Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre / Knight Frank Research Note: all transactions are subject to confirmation 3
SUPPLY, TAKE-UP AND VACANCY In the past six months, more than 500,000 sqm of Grade-A offices were added to emerging business districts. FIGURE 2 Grade-A office supply, take-up and vacancy rate During Q1 2015, Shanghai International Trade Centre in Jinqiao, Pudong provided 180,000 sqm of space, while three office buildings in KIC Phase 4 provided a total of 53,000 sqm. More tenants are expected to be attracted to emerging areas due to the widening rental gap from core locations, the steady supply of large projects and the clustering effect of similar industries. The new supply pushed up the overall Grade-A office vacancy rate to 4.6% in Q1, 1.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. During Q1, a foreign construction design and consultancy firm leased three whole floors covering 5,000 sqm in The Place in Changning District. '000 sqm 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 Grade-A office supply (left) Grade-A office net absorption (left) Vacancy rate (right) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% INVESTMENT MARKET In Q1, the unit price of en-bloc office transactions in Shanghai reached as high as RMB95,000 per sqm. On 6 January, AVIC Joy Holdings Limited acquired an office building, located at International Shipping Service Centre, No.18 Gong Ping Road, from Shanghai Yin Hui Real Estate Development Co., Ltd, for RMB1.57 billion or a floor value of RMB95,800 per sqm. On 12 February, Ascendas acquired a business park project in Shanghai through its private real estate fund. Located in Pudong s Zhangjiang High- Tech Park, the development, renamed Ascendas Lotus Business Park, covered a gross floor area of more than 700,000 sqm. Meanwhile, Shui On Land was planning to dispose Phase One of its Corporate Avenue development for US$1.2 billion, or a floor value of about RMB90,000 per sqm. The deal, if concluded, will become the largest ever en-bloc office transaction in Shanghai. 4
上海写字楼市场报告 2015 第一季度 研究报告 办公地点多元化成为主流趋势 2015 年第一季度共有 303,000 平方米的新增甲级写字楼竣工交付, 环比增加 20.9% 其中位于淮海中路的上海环贸广场二期竣工交付, 为市场新增约 60,000 平方米甲级写字楼面积 受到春节假期影响, 写字楼租赁市场成交低迷, 吸纳水平下降 核心商务区已基本满租, 其中浦东甲级写字楼入驻率已高企至 99.6% 较为活跃的租户来自金融以及 TMT( 科技 媒体和通信 ) 行业 受到新增供应竞争激烈的影响, 新兴商务区的甲级写字楼租金普遍偏低 展望未来, 上海甲级写字楼整体租金将会继续走低 但诸如小陆家嘴 南京西路等核心中央商务区由于新供有限, 租金将依旧保持稳定 新兴商务区内大量的新增供应及良好的 办公环境和清晰的产业规划, 使得更多 的租户选择搬迁至此 表一上海甲级写字楼市场参考指标 指标 2015 年第一季度数字按季变幅 预测 (2015 年第二季度 ) 新增供应 303,000 平方米 20.9% 租金 人民币 8.9 元 / 平方米 / 天 0.5% 空置率 4.6% 1.6 个百分点 资本价值 人民币 52,066 元 / 平方米 1.1% 回报率 6.3% 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 5
租金及价格 前两季度集中在新兴商务区的大量新增供应拉低了 2015 年第一季度的整体市场租金, 上海甲级写字楼平均租金环比微跌 0.5% 至每天每平方米人民币 8.9 元 浦东甲级写字楼的平均租金继续上扬 在经过连续一年的租金上调后, 第一季度浦东甲级写字楼整体租金环比上涨 1.7%, 同比上涨 7.9%, 至每天每平方米人民币 9.9 元 于第二季度推出的上海中心将为小陆家嘴区域提供 220,000 平方米的新增供应, 可缓解目前的供应紧张局面同时也会进一步抬高该区域的租金水平 第一季度, 临空和漕河泾等商务园区由于在租金上有较强的竞争力, 吸引了那些想要节省开支的租户, 其中服务业租户的比例逐渐增多 然而由于拥有较大的存量以及持续的新增供应, 上海商务园区的平均租金一直维持在每天每平方米人民币 3.6 元的较低水平 散售市场上, 第一季度写字楼整体均价环比下跌 1.1% 至每平米人民币 52,066 元 图一甲级写字楼租金及价格指数 2003Q1=100 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 表二甲级写字楼主要市场指标,2015 年第一季度 区域 租金指数 价格指数 租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 天 ) 租金环比变幅 空置率 空置率环比变幅 ( 百分点 ) 黄浦 9.0 3.7% 0.5 静安 10.5 1.2% 5.2% 浦东 9.9 1.7% 0.5% 徐汇 8.9 1.8% 长宁 7.7 0.7% 7.5% 2.0 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 表三甲级写字楼主要租赁成交,2015 年第一季度 区域项目楼层 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部注 : 所有成交均有待落实 面积 ( 平方米 ) 租金 ( 人民币 / 平方米 / 天 ) 长宁虹桥南丰城中区 5,000 7.5 黄浦宏伊国际广场高区 1,000 8.8 静安嘉里中心一座高区 1,300 9.8 表四甲级写字楼主要散售成交,2015 年第一季度 区域项目楼层 资料来源 : 上海房地产交易中心 / 莱坊研究部注 : 所有成交均有待落实 面积 ( 平方米 ) 成交单价 ( 人民币 / 平方米 ) 徐汇汇京国际广场 10 层单元 238 56,218 虹口绿地浦创商务大厦 15 层单元 207 55,894 闸北苏河湾华侨城中心 9 层单元 159 55,149 6
上海写字楼市场报告 2015 第一季度 研究报告 供应量 吸纳量及空置率 近六个月以来, 新兴商务区已有超过 500,000 平方米的新增甲级写字楼供应 图二甲级写字楼供应量 吸纳量及空置率 第一季度, 位于浦东金桥的东方万国企业中心的全面推出为市场带来了 180,000 平方米的新增供应 位于杨浦区的创智坊在第一季度新推出四期 3 栋总计 53,000 平方米的写字楼 由于与核心区域的租金差距逐步拉大, 又 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 千平方米 甲级写字楼供应量 ( 左轴 ) 甲级写字楼吸纳量 ( 左轴 ) 空置率 ( 右轴 ) 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 有大体量的新增供应推入市场, 新兴商务区将吸引更多的租户入驻, 聚集效应也将逐步体现 新增供应推高了市场空置率, 空置率环比 600 400 200 0 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 上升了 1.6 个百分点至 4.6% 一季度有一外资工程咨询公司租赁了长宁 2005 2006 资料来源 : 莱坊研究部 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1 区虹桥南丰城三个整层共 5,000 平方米的 面积 投资市场 第一季度, 上海写字楼整栋交易的成交单价高企至每平方米人民币 95,000 元 1 月 6 日, 幸福控股向上海银汇房产购买位于公平路 18 号上海国际航运服务中心内的整栋写字楼物业, 总价人民币 15.66 亿元, 折合楼板价每平方米人民币 95,800 元 2 月 12 日, 新加坡腾飞集团旗下私募基金收购一商务园项目 该项目位于浦东张江高科技园区内, 总建筑面积超过 700,000 平方米, 收购后更名为腾飞莲花商务园 此外, 瑞安房地产拟以 12 亿美元出售旗下上海新天地企业天地一期项目, 折合楼板 价约为每平方米人民币 90,000 元 若交易 达成, 将成为上海历年最大宗整幢写字 楼交易 7
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