096THU DOC

Similar documents
投影片 1

Microsoft Word - 9--杨岗_new_.doc


_OR_Zhang.CN.indd

untitled

1 SARS SARS SARS SARS SARS SARS S SARS SARS SARS 2 3 DNA SARS NatureScienceEmerging Infectious DiseasesJournal of Virology NatureScienceLa

葉子比比看

2-2

投资高企 把握3G投资主题

(Microsoft PowerPoint [L So] \272C\251\312\252\375\266\353\251\312\252\315\257f [\254\333\256e\274\322\246\241])

黑面琵鷺2015

産 産 産 産 産 爲 爲 爲 爲

42

Microsoft Word - Daily A.doc

Microsoft Word - 第四章 資料分析

1. 发 行 情 况 格 力 地 产 于 2014 年 12 月 25 日 发 行 9.8 亿 元 可 转 债 其 中, 原 股 东 优 先 配 售 亿 元 ( 万 手 ), 占 本 次 发 行 总 量 的 21.66% 网 上 向 一 般 社 会 公 众 投 资 者 发

文章题目

Microsoft Word - Software sector_ _CN_.doc

宏观与策略研究

信息管理部2003

专题研究.doc

PowerPoint Presentation

SARS综述_临床版.doc

衞 衞 ii

基金池周报

Microsoft PowerPoint - 人類H7N9禽流感國際疫情與防治策略 new

冠羽176期.indd

生 嬰 兒 出 現 小 頭 畸 形 1 ) 和 其 他 神 經 系 統 及 自 身 免 疫 性 的 併 發 2 症 如 吉 巴 氏 綜 合 症 的 潛 在 關 係 吉 巴 氏 綜 合 症 可 嚴 重 影 響 小 孩 的 腦 部 發 展 呼 吸 功 能 及 自 理 能 力 由 於 現 時 市 面 上

<4D F736F F D2047CEF7B7C920B9ABCBBED1D0BEBFB1A8B8E62E646F63>

2015医学版第六期

Microsoft Word 年報.doc

Microsoft PowerPoint - H1N1 新型流感的認識與防治

<4D F736F F D20CAFDBEDDCFC2D6DCB9ABB2BC20CAD0B3A1B3E5B8DFC8D4D3D0D5F0B5B42E646F63>

出 版 : 會 員 通 訊 網 址 香 港 大 眾 攝 影 會 有 限 公 司 通 訊 地 址 : 香 港 郵 政 總 局 郵 箱 號 非 賣 品 只 供 會 閱 覽 HONG KONG CAMERA CLUB, LT

(Microsoft PowerPoint - 03 \253\355\251w\245\315\262\ \301\277\270q.ppt)

2017 年累積鳥況同月進行兩次以上者, 擇取當月最大量鳥種學名 總計最大量保育等級 雁鴨科 Family Anatidae 赤膀鴨 Anas strepera 羅紋鴨 Anas falcata 12 1

Sector — Subsector


points after r8 (Autosaved)

全球新型H7N9流行現況與因應之道

<4D F736F F F696E74202D20BDC3A5CDBAD6A751B3A1AF65AF66BADEA8EEB87028AC79B750AF65AF66BB7BC3D1BB50A8BEAA76292E >

<4D F736F F F696E74202D20BDD3CCECC1ABD2B6B1CCA3ACD3B3C8D5BAC9BBA8BAEC2E707074>

points after r9.xlsx

东吴证券研究所

892213E006146

Microsoft Word _ doc

境外人民币期货的现状与趋势分析.doc

untitled

<4D F736F F D20A4BDA640BDC3A5CDAED6A4DFBDD2B57BB0F2A5BBAFE0A44FB4FAC5E72DAC79A6E6AF66BEC7B8D5C344A4BDA FA7B9BD5AAAA9>

<4D F736F F D20D0D0D2B5D1D0BEBF2DBBFAD0B A3BABABDCCECBABDBFD5CAC7D6D8B5E3A3ACD4A2BEFCD3DAC3F1CAC7C7F7CAC6A3A8D4F6B3D6A3A95B315D2E646F63>

學 校 名 稱 : 台 北 縣 永 和 市 永 和 國 民 小 學 作 者 姓 名 : 李 柏 歐 陳 柏 安 謝 忠 翰 林 芳 勤 黃 仕 杰 陳 皓 中 指 導 老 師 : 蘇 梅 雀 許 佩 蘭

Microsoft Word - 22 栗志民.doc

國民健康狀況是分配醫療資源及訂定全國健康目標之主要依據,更是衡量一個國家發展概況的重要指標之一

Microsoft Word H5N1流感感控指引2007版.doc

本 研 究 报 告 仅 通 过 邮 件 提 供 给 泰 信 基 金 管 理 有 限 公 司 泰 信 基 金 管 理 有 限 公 司 使 用 2 投 资 案 件 投 资 评 级 与 估 值 6 个 月 目 标 价 26 元, 首 次 评 级 给 与 买 入

Microsoft Word - GJPHV3N2-4.doc

香港促進健康飲食及體能活動參與的行動計劃書

< F63756D656E D2D796E2D31C6DABFAF2D31D6D0D2BDD2A9CFD6B4FABBAF2D C4EA2DB5DA35C6DA2D30322DD7A8C0FBD0C5CFA2D7CAD4B4D1D0BEBF35C6DA2E6D6469>

Dan Buettner / /

钝头蛇类系统学研究进展

, %, 3.01%, BMI BMI 24 BMI 28 85cm 80cm ii


主权之争和国家权力下渗

<4D F736F F D20A6DBB54DACECBEC7B7A7BDD7A655B667A46ABAF42E646F63>

Transcription:

1997 (High Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI H5N1) Shortridge 20002005 6000 Wang et al. 2007 FAO 2005 Migration Stallknecht 2007 8 Wetland International 2002 Lane(1987) (Anseriformes)(Charadriiformes HPAIV H5N1 20072007 12 1

WHO(World Health Organization WHO 2008 IBA 2007 Overlap Share habitat (Free-range) H5 H7 15 2

(Avian Influenza AI) 1878 Edoardo Perroncito (Fowl Plague, Fowl Pest) Schafer A OrthomyxoviridaeA (European Commission EC 2000) ( Hemagglutinin, HA) (Neuraminidase, NA) (subtypes) (Webster et al. 1992; Webster et al. 2006) HPAIV LPAIV (LPAIV, Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses) (HPAIV, High Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses) 100%(Alexander 2000) () H5H7 H5H7 16HA9NA 10 HPAIV (Anseriformes) (Charadriiformes) (Ciconiformes) (Passeriformes)(Suss et al. 1994) Sharp et al.(1997) 3

Animal Health Australia 2003 HPAIV 2005 4~6 6000 20057 20058 200510 H5N1 Olsen et al. 2006 1974 Slemons et al. 1974; Stallknecht and Shane 1988; Webster et al.1992; Stallknecht 1997; Webby and Webster 2003; Krause et al. 2004; Webster and Hulse 2005 (BirdLife 2006 Hinshaw et al. 1980; Ito et al. 1995; Hansonet al. 2002 ( Anseriformes ) ( Charadriiformes ) (Kawaoka et al. 1988 1988 4

Stallknecht and Shane 21,318 2317 (10.9%) (Passeriformes)2.9% (Charadriiformes)2.2% HPAIV HPAIV 30 Hinshaw et al., 1979; Sandu and Hinshaw, 1981; Sinnecker et al., 1983 Li et al. 2004; Chen et al. 2005) 1979 Starling Alexander et al. 1981 1994-1995 Alexander 2000 (WHO 2007) 20022004 5

2004 2006 95 2005 (Higher Risk Species) 2006 DAF(Department of Agriculture and Food) NPWS(National Parks and Wildlife Service) (Anseriformes) (Charadriiformes) 110 24 14 2 3 5 6

1. HPAIV H5N1 2. HPAIV H5N1 3. 4. 2006 EFSA(European Food Safety Authority) HPAIV H5N1 HPAIV Group size (Large) Eurasian Wigeon (Medium) Whooper Swan (Small) Purple Sandpiper (Solitary) 7

Green Sandpiper Group density (High) 2 (Dunlin) (Medium) 2-5 (Herring Gull) (Large) 5 (Common Snipe) (Solitary) Degree of mixing H5N1 HPAIV (High) Eurasian Wigeon (Medium) Northern Lapwing 8

(Low) Temminck's Stint (Solitary) (Common Sandpiper) Main habitat H5N1 HPAIV (A)Agricultural land (W)Water pond (G)Grass land (F)Fishpond (Bridge Species) (Bridge Species) 9

H5N1 HPAIV High contact Medium contact Low contact 10

2005 2007 Important Bird Area IBA 1,242 10,219 12% 1,565 1,390 1,871 2004 26 22 2005 20072008 2007 3 6 12 2008 2 2006-2007 1 11

1 2006 1 2007 12 12 2-3 2 4 3 2007 1 2 2007 3 2007 6 4 (Poultry farm) 2007 200 PF-P(Pretest)2007 3 6 1. 2007 3 2007 6 PF-P 4 3 8 5 9 1-2 12

15 2007 12 2008 2 3 15 5 2 8 ( PF-1PF-2PF-3PF-4PF-5PF-6PF-7PF- PF-1( PF-P) 8 3 8 5 1 12 72 8 15 Higher Risk Species HRS European Food Safety Authority EFSA2006 Migratory Birds and their Possible Role in the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza ( ) HPAIV 3 1. 2. 3. 13

4 4 () (Gregariousness during wintering/migration period) (1) (Group size) (Large)1000 Score4 (Medium)1000 Score3 (Small)10-100Score2 (Solitary)1-10Score1 (2) Group density 4 (High) 2 Score4 (Medium) 25 Score3 (Small) 5 Score2 (Solitary) Score1 () Degree of mixing 4 14

(High) 5 Score4 (Medium) 3-5 Score3 (Low) 1-3 Score2 (Solitary) Score1 () (Main habitat use) 3 (Agricultural land, Grass land)score3 (water pond)score2 (Sea wall)score1 Distance to poultry farm 3 (1) (1.5) (2) Ex1 (Lapwing) Small(S)2 Medium(M)3 Low(L)2 Agriculture(A)4 HPAIV (2+3+2+4) 1.5=16.5 15

Ex2 (Dunlin) (S)4 (M)4 (M)4 (A)1 1 HPAIV (4+4+4+1+1) 1=13 Ex3 (Green-winged Teal) (S)3 (M)3 (M)2 (A)2 2 HPAIV (3+3+2+2) 2=20 European Food Safety Authority EFSA2006 Migratory Birds and their Possible Role in the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza High contact Medium contact Low contact 16

( ) ( ) (non-migratory species) (8 ) Excel SPSS10.0 for Windows 2007 3 2007 6 One-Way ANOVA 8 5 (1 2007 12 2008 2 One-Way ANOVA PF-1PF-2PF-3PF-4 PF-5PF-6PF-7PF- 17

2006 12 2007 11 12 9 21 64 4 4 32 7 1 22 1 2 12 28 (12-2 ) (3-6 (7-11 ) (n=13422) 80% (n=9476)73%2006 12 (n=2642)97% 12 2 (n=510)95% ( 1 2 3 5 8 18

2007 3 2007 6 PF-P 4 7 9 3 6 4640 51%(n=2484) 24%(n=1186) 10%(n=509) 10%(n=500) 2%(n=97) 1.8%(n=79) 1%(n=47) 0.12%(n=6) 0.04%(n=2) 15 200 94 80 2007 3 6 PF-1 5 7 5 19

One-Way ANOVA 8 5 1 3-4 F =0.329; p=0.9340.05, n=2 days F=0.702; p=0.6860.05, n=2 days 8 5 2007 12 2008 2 2007 12 2008 2 PF-1 8 (PF-1PF-2PF-3PF-4PF-5PF-6PF-7 PF-8) 3 6 8 4253 2813 548 484 204 116 55 29 4 ( ) 12 2 12 PF-7 20

4 ( ) 4 100-1000 (medium) 2-5 (medium) 3 (small) 2 1000 4 2 4 3 1 2 1 1000 4 3(medium) 100-1000 3 2 4 21

22 (medium) 2 4 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 3 2

5 24 5-10 11-17 18-24 2-4 1-5 1-2 23

24 100 10-100 10 8 PF-1PF-5 PF-8 5

10 10 2 3 9 1500 12-3 2000 3-8 10 55%(n=510) 23% 17% 5% 1~2 10~12 3~5 12 7~8 72.7 n=1980 21.7 n=592 (Sinnecker et al. 1982Halvorson et al. 1985) (juvenile) (adult) (Deibel et al. 1985; Hinshaw et al. 1985, 1986) 25

(physiologic activities) (Wang et al. 2008) 2005 6000 HPAIV Thomas et al.(2007) (Bar-tailed godwit) 6000-8600 - (stopover) 26

HPAIV Deible(1985) Munster(2007) 2 (Black-headed gull) AI 27

(EFSA 2005) (1993) (n=2) 4 10-3 1000-2500 (2005) Sanzenbacher (2002)and Haig(2001 28

29

30 (Ranking) (USGS 2006) (Score17) 5(Rank:1-5)

31 () (2002) 2 3 2 3 () 4 4 4 (Heronry) PF-7

(Mobility) () 8 PF-7 7 PF-PF-2PF-3 PF-8 PF-7 PF-7 PF-5 PF-6 6 12-2 PF-5 PF-6 6 6 32

33 HPAIV Wetland International 2007 (EFSA)2006 () HPAIV (Ilaria 2006) (Biosecurity

34 HPAIV (ecological fallacy) Early warming system (hot spot)

Alexander DJ. 2000. A review of avian influenza in different bird species. Veterinary Microbiology 74: 3-13. AHAW. 2006. Scientific Opinion on Migratory Birds and their Possible Role in the spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. EFSA Journal, 357:1-46. Alexander DJ, Allan WH, Parsons DG, Parsons G, 1978. The pathogenicity of four avian influenza viruses for fowls, turkeys and ducks. Res Vet Science 24: 242-247. Adrianus C. M. Boon, Matthew R. Sandbulte, Patrick Seiler, Richard J. Webby, Thaweesak Songserm, Yi Guan, and Robert G. Webber. 2007. Role of Terrestrial Wild Birds in Ecology of Influenza A Virus(H5N1). Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(11):1720-4. Baillie, SR. 1995. Uses of ringing data for the conservation and management of bird populations: a ringing scheme perspective. Journal of Applied Statistics 22: 967-987. Bairlein, F. 2001. Results of bird ringing in the study of migration routes. Ardea 89 (Special Issue): 7-19. Bjorn Olsen, Vincent J. Munster, Anders Wallensten, Jonas Waldenstrom, Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus, Ron A. M. Fouchier. 2006. Global Patterns of Influenza A Virus in Wild Birds. Science 312:384-388. Chwan-Chuen King, Chuan-Liang Kao, Ding-Ping Liu, Min-Chu Cheng e, Hui-Lin Yen, Min-Shiuh Lee, Ching-Ping Tsai, Shin-Ru Shih, Happy K. Shieh, Jen-Pang Hsiu, Shu-Fang Li, Hour-Young Chen, Hsu-Mei Hsu, Shing-Jer Twu, Nancy J. Cox, Robert G. Webster. Seven integrated surveillance systems in Taiwan. 2003. International Congress Series(1219):107-118. C J Feare. 2006. Fish farming and the risk of spread of avian influenza. BirdLife International: http://www.birdlife.org/action/science/species/avian_flu/index.html. 35

Chen H, Smith GJD, Zhang SY, Qin K,Wang J, Li KS,Webster RG, Peiris JSM, Guan Y. 2005. H5N1 virus outbreak in migratory waterfowl. Nature436: 191 192. Dennis Normile. 2006. Evidence Points to Migratory in H5N1 Spread. Science 311:1225. Delany, S., J. Veen & J. Clark, Eds. 2006. Urgent preliminary assessment of ornithological data relevant to the spread of Avian Influenza in Europe. EU-DG Environment, Brussels. http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/nature_conservation/focus_wild_birds/av ian_influenza/pdf/avian_influenza_report.pdf. Gauthier-Clerc, M., Lebarbenchon, C., Thomas F. 2007. Recent expansion of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1a critical review. 2007. IBIS 149: 202-214. Humphrey Q P Crick, Philip W Atkinson, Stuart E Newson, Robert A Robinson, Lucy Snow, Dawn E Balmer, Dan E Chamberlain, Jacquie A Clark, Nigel A Clark, Peter A Cranswick, Ruth L Cromie, Baz Hughes, Mark J Grantham, Rebecca Lee & Andrew J Musgrove. 2006. Avian Influenza Incursion Analysis (through wild birds). BTO Research Report: 448. Ilaria Capua and Stefano Marangon. 2006. Control of Avian Influenza in Poultry. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12(9):1319-1324. John P Tracey, Rupert Woods, David Roshier, Peter West, and Glen R. Saunder. 2004. The role of wild birds in the transmission of avian influenza for Australia: an ecological perspective. Emu 104:109-124. Kilpartrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleisher RC, Marra PP, and Daszak P. 2006. Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. NCBI 103(51):19368-19373. Katharine M. Sturm-Ramirez, Trevor Ellis, Barry Bousfield, Lucy Bissett, Kitman Dyrting, Jerold E. Rehg, Leo Poon, Yi Guan, Malik Peiris, and Robert G. Webster. 2004. Reemerging H5N1 Influenza Viruses in Hong Kong in 2002 Are Highly Pathogenic to Ducks. Virology 78: 4892-4901. Kevin Winker, Kevin G.McCracken, Daniel D. Gibson, Christin L. Pruett, Rose Meier, 36

Falk Huettmann, Michael Wege, Irina V. Kulikova, Yuri N. Zhuravlev, Michael L. Perdue, Erica Spackman, David L.Suarez, and David E. Swayne. 2007. Movements of Birds and Avian Influenza from Asia into Alaska. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(4):547-552. Liu J, Xiao H, Lei F, Zhu Q, Qin K, Zhang X-w, et al. Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus infection in migratory birds. Science. 2005;309:1206. Larry Clark and Jeffery Hall. 2006. Avian Influenza in Wild Birds: Status as Reservoirs, and Risk to Humans and Agriculture. Ornithological Monographs 60: 3-29. K. S. Li, Y. Guan, J. Wang, G. J. D. Smith, K. M. Xu, L. Duan, A. P. Rahardjo, P. Puthavathana, C. Buranathai, T. D. Nguyen, A. T. S. Estoepangestie, A. Chaisingh, P. Auewarakul, H. T. Long, N. T. H. Hanh, R. J. Webby, L. L. M. Poon, H. Chen, K. F. Shortridge, K. Y. Yuen, R. G. Webster & J. S. M. Peiris. 2004. Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia. Nature 430:209-213. Yasue. Mai, Feare. Chris J, Bennun Leon, Fiedler, Wolfgang. 2006. The Epidemiology of H5N1 Avian Influenza in Wild BirdsWhy We Need Better Ecological Date. BioScience 56:923-929. Martin, V., A. Forman, and J. Lubroth. 2006. Preparing for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization. Maria Pittman, Alberto Laddomada, Ramunas Freigofas, Valentina Piazza, Aart Brouw, and Ian H. Brown. Surveillance, Prevention, and Disease Management of Avian Influenza in the European Union. Wildlife Disease 43: S64-S70. Neil M. Ferguson, Derek A. T. Cummings, Simon Cauchemez, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Aronrag Meeyai, Sopon Iamsirithaworn and Donald. Burke. 2005. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437(7056):209-214. Pfeiffer, D. U. 2007. Assessment of H5N1 HPAI risk and the important of wild birds. Wildlife Diseases 43:47-50. Robert G. Webster, and Elena A. Govorkova, M. D. 2006. H5N1 37

Influenza-Continuing Evolution and Spread. The New England Journal of Medicine 355:2174-2177 Rose, K. Newman, S. Uhart, M. Lubroth, J. 2006. Wild Bird Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Surveillance, Food and Agriculture Organization. Robert G. Webster, Ph.D., and Elena A. Govorkova, M.D., Ph.D. 2006. H5N1 InfluenzaContinuing Evolution and Spread. NEJM 355:2174-2177. Robert G. Webster, Scott Krauss, Diane Hulse-Post, and Katharine Sturm-Ramirez. 2007. Evolution of Influenza A Viruses in Wild Birds. Wildlife Diseases 43: S1-S6. Sabir Bin Muzaffar, Ronald C. Ydenberg and Ian L. Jones. 2006. Avian Influenza: An Ecological and Evolutionary Perspective for Waterbird Scientists. Waterbirds 29: 243-406. Stallknecht, D. E., and Brown. J. D. 2007. Wild Birds and the Epidemiology of Avian Influenza. Wildlife Diseases 43: S15-S20. Thomas P. Weber and Nikolaos I. Stilianakis. 2007. Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza(H5N1) in Migratory Birds. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(8):1139-1143. V. Martin, S. von Dobschuetz, A. Lemenach, N. Rass, W. Schoustra, and L. DeSimone. 2007. Early Warming, Database, and Information Systems for Avian Influenza Surveillance. Wildlife Diseases 43:71-76. Vittorio Guberti and Scott H. Newman. 2007. Guidelines on Wild Bird Surveillance for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus. 2007. Wildlife Diseases 43: S29-S34. Vincent J. Munster, Chantal Baas, Pascal Lexmond, Jonas Waldenstrom, Anders Wallensten, Thord Fransson, Guus F. Rimmelzwaan, Walter E. P. Beyer, Martin Schutten, Bjorn Olsen, Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus, Ron A. M. Fouchier. 2007. 38

Spatial, Temporal, and Species Variation in Prevalence of Influenza A Viruses in Wild Migratory Birds. PLos Pathogenics 3(5):e61. 39

40 1997 2005 H5H7 2006 2002 2006 NO.4187~96 1996 2005 1998 6123-129 20052005 (NO6) http://210.240.1.25/%7ekite/vbb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26525 2005b2005 (NO6) http://210.240.1.25/%7ekite/vbb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26525

20022002 2005 2008429 http://www.nvri.gov.tw/module/pagecontent/400/337.aspx?pid=xkbzyqguh1y %3d 1998-2003 41

(12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (9-11 ) (12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (9-11 ) (Podicipedidae ) (Pycnonotidae) 33 11 5 8 57 89 74 30 39 232 (Ardeidae) (Pycnonotidae) 144 61 0 224 429 0 6 6 4 16 60 0 0 0 60 10 18 10 8 46 35 132 323 284 774 (Sylviinae) 226 152 0 50 428 14 26 63 34 137 731 353 574 485 2143 (Zosteropidae) 130 71 8 76 285 6 2 0 0 8 17 52 14 35 118 (Ploceidae) (Threskiornithidae) 4 0 3 0 7 14 0 0 0 14 149 117 283 77 626 (Accipitridae) (Sturnidae) 6 0 0 1 7 0 2 14 0 16 (Rallidae) 0 0 0 2 2 19 8 10 12 49 3 3 2 4 12 (Columbidae) (Dicruridae) 444 316 590 431 1781 1 6 13 5 25 1 6 2 3 12 (Anseriformes) (Alaudidae) 69 0 0 18 87 15 22 24 32 93 197 0 0 84 281 (Hirundinidae) 121 0 0 0 121 3 1 2 0 6 12 0 0 9 21 48 38 95 191 372 (Rostratulidae) 16 0 0 0 16 3 3 2 1 9 42

(12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (Charadriidae) (9-11 ) (12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (9-11 ) 48 203 143 352 746 5567 1419 525 2434 9945 11 3 3 5 22 28 9 27 44 108 15 57 30 23 125 151 993 1013 96 2253 32 15 2 2 51 22 104 37 3 166 0 0 0 1 1 206 274 2 100 582 0 16 17 2 35 370 127 1 166 664 314 223 0 62 599 206 0 0 79 285 3 1 1 5 10 240 108 88 141 577 0 0 1 1 2 (Scolopacidae) 0 1 0 9 10 1347 1159 80 772 3358 1 1 0 0 2 12 463 0 0 475 0 12 1 1 14 5695 2538 0 1687 9920 1 91 137 2 231 25 37 0 6 68 (Glareolidae) 0 97 21 6 124 0 4 7 36 47 105 783 4 242 1134 (Laridae) 40 2 0 127 169 121 0 0 18 139 0 98 0 0 98 0 53 90 0 143 43

2007.03 2007.06 (mean±sd ) hours 34 34 25.46±29.9 49.5±43.1 24.64±23.8 103.2±89.4 3.2±4.1 1.2±2.2 1.9±4.9 0.86±4.3 ±2.27 3.33±2.11 1.11±2.42 1.39±2.06 0.33±0.49 0.83±0.99 0 0 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 2007.03 2007.06 (34 ) (56 ) X 2 806639.611 25.778 523.611 20.444 df 17 17 17 17 0.993 0.438 0.686 0.404 2007.12 2008.02 (mean±sd ) hours 18.3±4.9 9 67±61.6 9 101.7±12.5 9 79.3±36.9 9 38.7±13.7 9 39±33.9 9 592.7±108.5 9 125.7±23.7 9 44

45 2007.12 2008.02 *(p)0.05 Site Site (p) Site Site (p) PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF-8 0.629 0.348 0.367 0.256 0.259 0.000* 0.367 PF-5 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-6 PF-7 PF-8 0.256 0.503 0.061 0.052 0.994 0.000* 0.052 PF-2 PF-1 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF-8 0.629 0.179 0.175 0.503 0.508 0.000* 0.175 PF-6 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-7 PF-8 0.259 0.508 0.062 0.053 0.994 0.000* 0.053 PF-3 PF-1 PF-2 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF-8 0.348 0.179 0.893 0.061 0.062 0.000* 0.893 PF-7 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-8 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* PF-4 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF-8 0.367 0.175 0.893 0.052 0.053 0.000* 1.000 PF-8 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 0.367 0.175 0.893 1.000 0.052 0.053 0.000*

AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) (Podicipedidae ) Little Grebe Podiceps ruficollis 2 3 1 2 1.5 13 N (Ardeidae) Little Egret Egretta garzetta 4 3 3 2 2 22 Y Black-crowned Night Heron Nycticorax nycticorax 2 3 2 2 2 19 Y Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis 3 2 2 3 1.5 15 N Great Egret Egretta albat 3 3 2 2 1.5 15 N Intermediate Egret Egretta intermedia 3 3 2 2 1.5 15 N Grey Heron Ardea cinerea 3 3 2 2 1.5 15 Y (Anseriformes) Teal Anas crecca 3 3 2 2 2 20 N Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope 3 3 2 2 1.5 15 Y Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata 2 3 2 2 1.5 14 N Spot-billed Duck Anas poecilorhynacha 2 3 2 2 1.5 14 N Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score : 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score : 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 46

AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) (Rallidae) Mooehen Gallinule chlorpus 2 1 1 2 1.5 9 Y (Charadriidae) Lapwing Vanellus vanellus 3 3 3 1.5 16.5 N Little Ringed Plover Charadrius dubius 2 2 1 2 2 14 N Mongolian Plover Charadrius mongolus 2 3 3 1 1.5 13.5 N Kentish Plover Charardrinus alexandrinus 4 4 4 1 1 13 N Greater Sand Plover Charadrius leschenaultia 4 4 4 1 1 9 N Black-bellied Plover Pluvialis squatarola 3 3 2 1 1 9 N Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score : 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score : 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 47

AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) Scolopacidae Wood Sandpiper Tringa glareola 3 3 2 3 1.5 16.5 N Common Sandpiper Tringa hypoleucos 2 1 1 3 2 14 N Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpres 4 4 4 1 1 13 N Dunlin Calidris alpine 4 4 4 1 1 13 N Sanderling Crocethia alba 3 4 4 1 1 12 N Marsh Sandpiper Tringa stagnatilis 2 2 2 2 1.5 12 N Sharp-tailed Sandpiper Calidris acuminate 3 3 2 2 1 10 N Red Knot Calidris canutus 2 3 4 1 1 10 N Rufous-necked Stint Calidris ruficollis 3 3 3 1 1 10 N Great Knot Calidris tenuirostris 2 3 2 1 1 8 N Greenshank Tringa nebularia 2 3 2 1 1 8 N Long-toed Stint Calidris Subminuta 2 3 2 1 1 8 N Gray-tailed Tattler Tringa brevipes 2 3 2 1 1 8 N Curlew Sandpiper Calidris ferruginea 2 3 2 1 1 8 N Terek Sandpiper Xenus cinerus 1 2 2 2 1 7 N Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago 1 1 1 3 1 6 N Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus 1 1 1 2 1 5 N Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score : 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score: 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 48

AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) (Laridae) Saunders s Gull Larus crassirostris 2 1 1 2 1 6 N Little tern Sterna albiforns 1 1 1 2 1 5 N (Columbidae) Red-Turtle Dove Streptopelia tranquebarica 3 4 2 3 2 24 Y Feral pigeon Columba livia 2 4 2 3 2 22 Y (Alaudidae) Oriental Skylark Alauda gulgula 2 2 1 3 1.5 13 N Hirundinidae Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica 1 2 1 3 2 14 N Pacific Swallow Hirundo tahitica 2 2 1 3 1.5 12 N Brown-throated Sand Martin Riparia paludicola 1 2 1 3 1.5 10.5 N (Pycnonotidae) Chinese Bulbul Pycnonotus sinensis 3 2 1 3 2 18 N (Pycnonotidae) Brown Shrike Lanius cristatus 1 2 1 3 1.5 10.5 N Black-headed Shrike Lanius schach 1 2 1 3 1.5 10.5 N (Sylviinae) Tawny-flanked Prinia Prinia subflava 2 2 1 3 1.5 12 N Zosteropidae) Japanese White-eye Zosterops japonica 1 2 1 3 1.5 10.5 Y (Ploceidae) Tree Sparrow Passer montanus 3 4 2 3 2 24 Y Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score: 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score : 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 49

Common name Scientific name Little grebe Tachybaptus ruficollis Mute Swan Cygnus olor Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope Common teal Anas crecca Lesser black-backed gull Larus fuscus Gadwall Anas strepera Goldeneye Bucephala clangula Gadwall Anas strepera Garganey Anas querquedula Shoveler Anas clypeata Mallard Anas platyrhynchos Northern Pintail Anas acuta Garganey Anas querquedula Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata Common Pochard Aythya farina Tufeted Duck Aythya fuligula Whooper swan Cygnus cygnus Coot Fulica atra Moorhen Gallinula chloropus Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica Curlew Numenius arquata Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago Ruff Philomachus pugnax Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus Common gull Larus canus (Defra 2006), (DAF 2006), (Susanne 2006) 50

Common name Scientific name Great Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis Grey Heron Ardea cinerea Ring-necked Pheasant Phasianus colchicus Common Coot Fulica atra Common Moorhen Gallinula chloropus Wood Pigeon Columba palumbus Black-billed Magpie Pica pica Eurasian Jackdaw Corvus monedula Rook Corvus frugilegus Carrion Crow Corvus corone European Starling Sturnus vulgaris Eurasian Tree Sparrow Passer montanus Feral Pigeon Columba livia Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus Common Gull Larus canus (Susanne 2006), (EFSA 2006) 51

PF-6 PF-5 PF-3 PF-7 PF-2 PF-1 PF-8 PF-4 52

4000 3500 Numbers of population 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month 2006.12-2007.11 2500 Numbers of population 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month 2006.12-2007.11 53

3000 2500 Numbers of population 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month 2006.12-2007.11 120 100 Numbers of population 80 60 40 20 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month 2006.12-2007.11 54

Numbers of population 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month 2006.12-2007.11 Numbers of population 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month 2006.12-2007.11 55

Numbers of population 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Mar Apr May Jun Month 2007.3-2007.06 600 500 Numbers of population 400 300 200 100 Mar Apr May Jun 0 8:00-9:00 9:00-10:00 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 Time 2007. 03-2007. 06 34 56 56

Number of species 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8:00-9:00 9:00-10:00 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 Time Mar Apr May Jun 2007.03-2007.06 34 56 57

100% 90% 80% 70% Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site3 (n=139) Site 7 (n=592) Site 4 (n=159) Site 8 (n=104) Site 2 (n=135) Site 5 (n=45) Site 6 (n=17) Site 1 (n=16) 2007.12 100% 90% 80% 70% Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site3 Site4 Site7 Site8 Site2 Site5 Site6 Site1 (n=125) (n=86) (n=702) (n=122) (n=15) (n=23) (n=78) (n=24) 2008.01 58

100% 90% 80% 70% Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site 4 Site 8 Site 7 Site3 Site 2 Site 5 Site 6 Site 1 (n=132) (n=151) (n=485) (n=114) (n=51) (n=48) (n=22) (n=15) Site 2008.02 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Percentage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site7 (n=1779) Site3 (n=378) Site4 (n=377) Site8 (n=377) Site2 (n=201) Site5 (n=116) Site6 (n=117) Site1 (n=55) 2007.12-2008.02 59

800 700 Number of population 600 500 400 300 200 DEC JAN FEB 100 0 Site 1 Site 2 Site3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Site 8 2007.12-2008.02 30 25 Relative Riskiness 20 15 10 Low risk Medium risk High risk 5 0 AI 60

250 200 Relative Riskiness 150 100 50 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month 300 250 Numbers of population 200 150 100 50 0 low contact intensity medium contact intensity high contact intensity (Bridge species) 61

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% others(not bridge species) BS (Bridge species) 0% Dec(n=1207) Jan(n=1175) Feb(n=1018) (Bridge species) ( ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% others(not bridge species) BS (Bridge species) 20% 10% 0% Site3 (n=378) Site4 (n=377) Site8 (n=377) Site2 (n=201) Site7 (n=1779) Site6 (n=117) Site5 (n=116) Site1 (n=55) (Bridge species) 62

30 25 Relative Riskiness 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 30 25 Relative Riskiness 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 63

30 25 Relative Riskiness 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 30 25 Relative Riskiness 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 64

Relative Riskiness 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 30 25 Relative Riskiness 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 65

Relative Riskiness 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb May Apr May Month AI 30 25 Relative Riskiness 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb May Apr May Month AI 66

Relative Riskiness 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 67