迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 28 12 V w 886.2.2181.873 x stephen.wang@kgi.com.tw V (Coordinator) w 86.21.6125.8672 27 474.14 8.24%8 863 973 4.42 (238.SZ, Rmb29.7, ) http://research.kgi.com
2812 : 28KGI2 1997 2723 21 3-7 2
4 6 18 35 3 1 4
1 238.SZ, Rmb29.7, 5 2 6
2 4.42 Novo Nordisk4 7 2 4-7 Rmb 5 4 5 4 81-8 81-8 8.3 3 2 1 3 2 3.6 26.7 36.5 37.7 4.5 23.8 14 3.3 4.4 1 24 25 26 27 Menet Menet 8
迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 2 1H7-1H878 IL-2 5 3 6 G-CSF 12 2,3 1,863 1,5 943 3 5 39 27 19 EPO 24 Menet Menet 9 2 - Biogenerics Indications Manufacturers IFNa-1b Hepatitis B,Hepatitis C Shenzhen Kexing,Shanghai Institute of Biological Pruducts,Beijing Tri-prime IFNa-1b(eye drop) Viral keratitis Changchun Institute of Biological Products IFNa-2a Hepatitis B,Hepatitis C Changchun Institute of Biological Products,Changsheng Gene Pharma,Sunshine Pharma,Sundiro Pharma,Liaoning Satellite IFNa-2b Hepatitis B,Hepatitis C Anke,Hansheng,Huaxin,Dingli,Yuance,Hualida,Neptunus interlong,reahar,changchun Institute of Biological Products IFNa-2b(gel) Herpes Hefei Zhaofeng IFNg Rheumatoid Shanghai Institute of Biological products,clone,zhuhai Lizon Pharma Interleukin-2(IL-2) Adjunctive therapy for cancer Four ring,huaxin,changchun Institute for Cancer Biological Products,Sunshine Pharma,Changsheng,Gene-Science,Ruide,Jinsli,Kangli 125Ala IL-2 Adjunctive therapy for cancer Beijing SL Pharma 125Ser IL-2 Adjunctive therapy for cancer Shandong Quangang,Liaoning Staelite G-CSF GM-CSF Leukopenia Leukopenia Hangzhou Jiuyuan,Beijing SL,Changchun GeneScience,SuZhou Zhongkai,Shanghai Sunway,BeihaiFangzhou,Amoytop,Shandong Kexing,Xinpeng,Gene Leuk,Lilu,Chengdu Rongsheng Xiamen Amoytop,North China Pharma,Hainan Huakang,Gene-Science,Shanghai Huaxin,Liaoning Satellite. Erythropoietin(EPO) Renal anemia Sunshine Pharma,Huaxin,Shandong Kexing,Shanghai Clone,Chengdu Diao,Shandong Ahua,Four-rings Biologicals,North China Pharma Hepatitis B vaccine Hepatitis B Shenzhen kangtai,beijing Institute of Biological Products 1
- 2 277512.5% 8 6 4 2 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Global biotech salesus$ bn Global biotech growth IMS Health 35 3 25 2 15 1 Top 1 Therapy Classes Sales (US$mn) IMS Health Market Share 27 Growth (%) (%) Const US CAGR 2-6 (%) Global Biotech Market 75,12 1. 12.5 18.8 Erythropoietins 12,872 17.1-9. 11.9 Oncologics 11,365 15.1 24.2 45.9 Antidiabetics 1,231 13.6 14.6 15.4 Autoimmune agents 8,357 11.1 24.5 59. Interferons 6,679 8.9 2.3 9.8 Immunostim Ag Ex Intfron 6,5 8. 5. 17.3 Immunosuppressive Agents 4,52 6. 19.6 21.7 Growth Hormones 2,627 3.5 12. 9.7 Blood Coagulation 2,433 3.2 9.6 17.4 Pure Vaccines 2,99 2.8 172.4 2.8 Total top 1 67,189 89.4 11.4 19.2 11 2-2748.3 27 27(mn) (%) (%) Enbrel Amgen 5,29 7. 15.5 Aranesp Amgen 4,415 5.9 (12.9) Remicade Centocor 4,22 5.6 15.6 Rituxan Genetech 3,714 4.9 13.2 Neulasta Amgen 3,556 4.7 8. Herceptin Genetech 3,255 4.3 24.1 Procrit Ortho Biotech 3,291 4.4 (12.4) Epogen Amgen 2,982 4. (5.2) Avastin Genetech 2,847 3.8 4.9 Humira Abbott Labs 2,79 3.7 4.8 36,36 48.3 8.9 75,12 1. 12.5 Datamonitor 12
-CAGR35 2 CAGR35 Rmb 2,5 2, 1,5 NovoLilly Eli Lilly 3G [1] Aventis 3G TDP 3G Gan & Lee 3G [.8] 3 Novo 3G 6 9 1, 5 Eli Lilly 2G 1 MAT-1H3 MAT-1H4 MAT-1H5 MAT-1H6 MAT-1H7 MAT-1H8 Gan & Lee 3G Eli Lilly 3G TDP 3G Aventis 3G Novo 2G Eli Lilly 2G Nove 2G 68 Novo 2G IMS Health IMS Health 13 2 IL-2 CAGR1 IL-2 CAGR1 IL-2Rmb IL-2 29 34 37 24 27 [1] 3 3 3 [1] 4 5 21 12 71 73 68 67 54 46 49 49 58 31 MAT ~ 6/24 MAT ~ 6/25 MAT ~ 6/26 MAT ~ 6/27 MAT ~ 6/28 14 14 18 IMS Health IMS Health 14
G-CSF/GM-CSF4CAGR13.25 迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 2 1H7-1H89.43 Rmb 73% 1, 8 6 4 2 MAT6/24 MAT6/25 MAT6/26 MAT6/27 MAT6/28 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 22 23 3 4 5 9 6 6 6 6 6 6 IMS Health IMS Health 15 2 4CAGR2.15 273.87 1H7-1H818.63 Rmb -2a42% 2, 1,5 5 4-1b [.7] PEG -2b 5 7 [.4] 1, 3 2-2b 23 41-2a 5 1 MAT6/24 MAT6/25 MAT6/26 MAT6/27 MAT6/28 PEG -2a 24 IMS Health IMS Health 16
- 迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 2 2 17 3 18
迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 3 RocheAvastin 7(Rmb) (%) Avastin Bevacizumab 41.6 41 Herceptin Trastuzumab 48.52 23 MabThera Rituximab 55.16 15 Tarceva Erlotinib 1.62 31 Xeloda Capecitabine 11.51 19 Roche 19 3 DNA DNA DNA RNA S-Fu DNA DNA SLS8 DNA -2 5 2
25 3 1/1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 27 ( )[1.8] [2.6] [2.6] [3.2] 12. 7.8 [1.4] [.8] [.6] 24.4 [.1] 12.4 16.7 13.2 Data Monitor DataMonitor 21 3 G-CSF G-CSF IL-11 IL-11 22
23 3 SLS23 SLZ22 24 WHO 3 22 13 1 5 17 7 2 2 6 2 2 1 11 21 6 1 1 6 16 26 迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net
迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 3 7-8 5.58 49% 72% Rmb 6 1 5 8 4 6 3 4 2 1 2 MAT6/24 MAT6/25 MAT6/26 MAT6/27 MAT6/28 IMS Health 25 3 Rmb 396 315 283 278 151 156 99 93 69 17 18 5 Dec-4 Dec-5 Dec-6 Dec-7 GSK GSK/ BMS Novatis / 21-15 21 / 3mg 1mg.5mg 6mg 3mg 1mg.5mg 6mg 17/ 14-21/ 39/ 24/ 7 5.1 3.96 1.93 IMS Health 26
3 8 9 () () () () ( () 27 3 5-28
迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 3 Rmb 5 3 4 25 2 3 15 2 1 1 5 MAT ~ 6/24 MAT ~ 6/25 MAT ~ 6/26 MAT ~ 6/27 MAT ~ 6/28 IMS Health 7-8 () (%) 99 2.9 32 6.8 29 6.2 26 5.5 25 5.2 22 4.6 UCB 21 4.4 16 3.4 16 3.3 16 3.3 172 36.3 IMS Health 29 3 ROE27.57%: 5.92% 56.76% ROE 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Bloomberg ROE 3
迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 3 3 1,8 681 275 31 1,326 1,481 (%) 1.8 6. 24. 27.1 54. 54.4 42.8 4,5 23 25 43 12 7 12 (%).45 1.13 2.8.73.55 1.1.88 31 3 27-212 22 238. SZ, Rmb29.7, 32
(238.SZ, Rmb29.7, ) 3 7 44%8-1 19%89.6% 9743% 8-1 8-1 8%61% 46.8 ( 5 4 3 2 1 21 21 23 24 25 26 27 28F 29F 21F :k 2 15 1 5 713%8-1 3%56% 33 (238.SZ, Rmb29.7, ) 3 8-1EPS.91.211.69 93PE 36.3 1231 EBITDA () () () () () () 27A 238 153 94 14 134 1.8 28F 377 26 23 217 224.9 29F 575 397 311 323 31 1.21 21F 827 562 438 45 419 1.69 1231 EV/Sales EV/EBIT EV/EBITDA EV/Inv. C (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) (%) 27A 16.8 42.5 38.4 31.6 7.2 27.5 28F 17.9 33.2 2.2 33. 7.5 3.8 29F 11.3 21. 31.2 24.5 5.5 29. 21F 7.5 14.1 2.2 17.6 3.9 3.6 52 (/): 22.4-7.9 12 () 36.3 (/): 7.4 / 1,25 / (%) 22.2 (): 248 (percentile, %) 54 () 139-12/8 (%).3 (): N.A. -12/8() 3.6 3 ():.9-12/8(x) 8.2 %(3, 6, 12) 1.4; -1.7; -27.6-12/8(%) %(3, 6, 12) 23.4; 88.7; 53.3 :k 34
4 35 4 Company Name Biogeneric CBNC www.cnbpc.com.cn rhifn a-2a,il-2,transfer Factor,Human Leucocyte Interferon,Thymosin,Histaglobuin,rh IFN 1-b Beijing Tiantan Biological Products btbp.com.cn Human albumin,human immunoglobulin,human immunoglobulin for venous injection Chengdu Rongsheng Pharmaceuticals affiliated to CNBC www.ronsen.com Human albumin,human immunoglobulin,human immunoglobulin for intravenous injection Shanghai Institute of Biological Pruducts www.siobp.com Blood products,vaccines,genetically-engineered pruducts,diagnostic kits Changchun Institute of Biological Products www.ccibp.com rhifn 2-a,rhIFN a-1b,riifn a-2b,rhifn a-2a,rh GM-CSF Shengyang Sunshine Pharma www.3sbio.com rhifn a-2a,rhil-2,rhepo Anhui Anke Biotechnology www.ankebio.com rhgrowth Hormone,rhIFN a-2b Beijing Tri-Prime Genetic Engineering www.triprime.com rhifn a-1b Changchun Changsheng Gene Pharmaceutical;www.csgp.com.cn rhifna-2a,rhifna-1b,rhil2,b FGF Shenzhen Kexin Biotech;www.kexing.com.cn IFNa-1b,Insulin,IL-2,Growth Hormone Sinovac Biotech;www.sinovac.com Vaccines(Hepatitis A,A+B,Influenza and SARS Tianjin Hulida Biotechnology;www.hualida.com rhifna-2b Injection and Spray Xiamen Amoytop Biotech;www.amoytop.com rhg-csf,rhil-11 Beijing Shuanglu Pharma;www.slpharm.com rhg-csf,rhil-11,alsil-2,rh-bfgf Hangzhou Jiuyuan Gene Engineering;www.china-gene.com rhg-csf,lmwh,rhil-11 Hualan Biological Engineering;www.hualan.com Human albumin,immunoglobulin,tetanus immunoglobulin,hepatitis B Immunoglobulin NCPC GeneTech Biotechnology;www.ncpcgt.com.cn rhgm-csf,rhg-csf,rhepo 36
迅嘉机构内参 - http://www.123678.net 4 7 R&D 25 67R&D R&D 3 2 25 15 1 5 2 15 1 5 Pfizer Sanofei- Aventis GSK Novartis J&J Astra Zeneca Merck Bayer Eli Lilly BMS Wyeth Sche ring- Plough R&D Adv ertising Genetech Gilead Biogen Idec Vertex Celgene Genzyme Alnylam Mannkind Regenron Amylin 26 R&D 27 R&D Data Monitor DataMonitor 37 4 Global Biotech Leading Corps. Rank MAT Dec 27 (US$mn) Market Share 27 (%) MAT Dec 27 (US$mn) CAGR 2-6 (%) Global Biotech Market 75,12 1. 12.5 18.8 Amgen 15,964 21.3 (.5) 27. Roche/Genetech 15,469 2.6 2.4 33.5 J&J 6,285 8.4 (3.4) 3. Novo Nordisk 5,89 7.8 13.7 17.6 Lilly 3,931 5.2 7.1 4.7 Sanofei-Aventis 3,21 4.3 33.3 37.7 Abbott 3,145 4.2 39.2 119.1 Merck KGaA 2,734 3.6 13.5 17.9 Schering-Plough 2,577 3.4 5.8 1.4 Wyeth 2,254 3.4 5.8 1.4 Top 1 61,451 81.8 1.5 2.3 38
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