2013 1 童伟 俄 伊戈里 戈尔基 近 20 年来, 俄罗斯对养老保障制度进行了一系列改革, 通过逐步 扩大养老保险覆盖范围 建立养老保险基金 提高养老保险统筹层次 健全基本养老金增长机制 鼓励非国有养老保险机构发展, 实现了养老保障制度由国家统包向以保 险为原则 以市场调节与国家调控相结合的新型养老保障制度的过渡 俄罗斯养老保障保险费率 童伟,1967 年生, 中央财经大学财经研究院研究员 博士生导师, 经济学博士 ( 北京 士 100081) ; 伊戈里 戈尔基, 全俄函授财经学院教授, 经济学博 2031 20 90 7 650 1 4 007 1990 1991 2010 2. 8 1 2031 1. 9 1 36% 53% 47. 2% 2 20 1 16 ~ 59 16 ~ 54 2 Предположительная численность населения РФ до 2030 42 года Росстат 2010.
2013 1 1 2 3 1967 31. 6% 5% 2002 6% 4 2008 2009 1 2002 2002 2010 2008 11 2020 1 2016 ~ 2020 2. 5 ~ 3 2 2010 1 3 40% 2002 GDP 35. 6% 28% 4% 3. 6% 14% 2005 6% 2 2010 2002 14% 1967 14% 1967 1. 8% 2011 3 1 2007 7 43
2013 1 26% 4. 2. 2011 5. 26% 1967 41. 5 26% 26% 1967 16% 10% 41. 5 2012 51. 2 3. 22% 51. 2 10% 1 1 % 2002 2006 2011 2012 35. 6 28 34 34 28 20 26 41. 5 22 51. 2 10 51. 2 14 6 - - 1 1967 2 1967 14 8 1967 6 6 6 6 14 8 26 20 22 51. 2 10 51. 2 16 51. 2 4 51. 2 6. 8. 7 476 1. 67 7. 2002 10% 1991 1% 2010 1991 2007 2. 4 2002 2 2007 22. 9% 2010 35. 4% 54. 6% 2 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 GDP % 5. 1 5. 1 7. 0 8. 9 / 3 116 4 199 5 191 7 476 % 104. 8 118. 1 110. 7 134. 8 1. 02 1. 15 1. 27 1. 67 % 22. 9 24. 3 27. 9 35. 4 Гурвич Е. Т. Как обеспечить стабильность пенсионной системы http / /www. opec. ru 2007 ~ 2010 44
2013 1 2 3. 7 3 GDP 1. 5% 5. 2% 3 GDP % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3. 9 3. 6 3. 9 3. 6 4. 7 0. 4 0. 6 0. 7 0. 7 0. 7 1. 5 2. 0 3. 3 5. 2 4. 3 28 36 45 60 47 расчеты ЭЭГ на основе данных Министерства финансов РФ и ПФР. 2011 20% 26% 2007 1 GDP 2. 3 4. 3% 2. 1 4 4 2007 % GDP GDP 3. 8 30 3. 3 39 3. 3 31 2. 2 21 3. 2 27 4. 7 41 0 0 0 0 3. 6 26 2. 2 32 1. 5 13 0 0 0. 4 3 2. 4 20. 5 3. 2 34 2. 1 22. 1 Гурвич Принципы новой пенсионной реформы / /Вопросы экономики 2011 4. GDP 9% 5 5 GDP % 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4. 2 4. 3 5. 9 7. 6 7. 4 2010 0. 3 0. 3 0. 5 0. 6 0. 6 1 35% 0. 6 0. 5 0. 6 0. 7 0. 7 5. 1 5. 1 7. 0 8. 9 8. 7 28 36 45 60 47 2 /3 OECD Гурвич Принципы новой пенсионной 60% реформы. 2010 OECD GDP GDP 2010 8. 2% 1 45
2013 1 8. 3% OECD 8. 4% 21% 6. 0% 20. 2% 22. 1% 6 6 % 0 9. 0 9. 0 10. 3 12. 6 22. 9 2011 0 26. 0 26. 0 7. 5 8. 9 16. 4 7. 1 8. 9 16. 0 11. 0 12. 8 23. 8 9. 5 24. 0 33. 5 10. 0 10. 0 19. 9 1. 7 7. 0 8. 7 6. 7 13. 3 20. 0 11. 3 14. 3 25. 5 4. 0 10. 8 14. 8 10. 5 20. 8 31. 3 4. 7 23. 6 28. 3 7. 0 20. 0 27. 0 9. 2 23. 8 33. 0 9. 0 11. 0 20. 0 5. 0 5. 0 9. 9 6. 5 21. 5 28. 0 19. 0 5. 7 24. 7 4. 5 4. 5 9. 0 7. 8 14. 1 21. 9 11. 0 23. 8 34. 8 6. 8 9. 9 16. 7 7. 0 11. 9 18. 9 6. 2 6. 2 12. 4 7. 7 7. 7 15. 4 7. 9 12. 3 20. 2 7. 5 14. 7 22. 1 OECD 21. 0 Ageing Report / European Commission 2009 Social Security Programs throughout the World / Social Security Administration and International Social Security Association 2009 2010. 2006 ~ 2010 20% 2011 26% 2010 ~ 2050 1 GDP 5 1 40 GDP 8 13% 2031 2010 2 1 100 2010 2010 61. 8% 55% 12. 4% 900 22% 28. 8% 30. 9% 100 1 36 53 47. 2% 1 2 46 Предположительная численность населения РФ до 2030 года Росстат 2010. Гурвич Принципы новой пенсионной реформы / / Вопросы экономики 2011 4.
2013 1 2010 34% GDP 0. 5% 21 OECD 65 63 63 60 60 55 1. 54 52. 5 1 /3 2. 3. 5 20 18 4. 20 5. 6. 47
2013 1 GDP 1. 4% ~ 2. 3% GDP1. 2% ~ 1. 9% GDP0. 2% ~ 0. 4% 2005 2004 1 350 2005 35. 6% 26% 28% 20% 10 28 2005 1 870 1 300 2010 1. 3 GDP 2. 9% 2011 20% 26% GDP 1. 8% 2050 GDP 1. 25% 2010 1% 32 ~ 34% 1 2 48
2013 1 3 2011 4 659 7. 5% 1 773 / 20% 2000 ~ 2011 7 262 146 7 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 262 290 289 252 235 165 151 146 337 605 642 675 674 675 663 659 28 70 86 102 113 127 136 147 % 0. 7 1. 8 2. 3 2. 7 2. 9 3. 3 3. 4 3. 7 599 7 569 10 317 13 842 17 515 22 152 26 659 31 304 177 893 993 1 124 1 290 1 448 1 631 1 773 1. 30 ~ 40% 20% 6 ~ 9 2008 4 30 56 1 10 12 000 10 120 000 1 000 2008 本文受教育部 新世纪优秀人才支持计 划 国家社科基金项目 ( 编号 : 11BZZ047) 及教育 部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目 ( 编号 : 10YJA790173) 资助 ( 责任编辑张红侠 ) 2. 1 2010 4 49
2013 1 Tong Wei and Igor Gorki In the past twenty years Russia carried out a series of pension reform. With these reforms the coverage of endowment insurance was extended a pension insurance fund was established the package level of endowment insurance was enhanced growth mechanism of basic old-age pension was improved and development of non-state endowment insurance institutions was encouraged. The old-age security system is transforming from the state total support to the combination of market regulation and state s financial support. Zhu Xinglong and Liu Wenge This paper carried out an empirical analysis of Russian enterprises in transformation period and found that marketization of an enterprise is not necessary condition for economic growth. Adversely excessive marketization probably result in economic stagnation and decline. The final outcome marketization depends on the rationality of institution arrangement. The key is marketization of enterprise should match with realistic demand of economic development. Institution arrangement must be flexible and tallying with country s situation. Shen Lihua Both Russia and Ukraine belong to the East Slavs. Kievan Rus is their common cradle the Mongol invasion had Russia and Ukraine took a different path of development. Treaty of Pereiaslav led to the establishment of the Cossack Hetmanate in left-bank Ukraine under the Russian Empire. Since then Russian Empire used various means to assimilate Ukraine. After the October Revolution as Republics of the Soviet U- nion Russia and Ukraine experienced vicissitudes in the Soviet Union. Living together hundreds of years Russian and Ukrainians did not become brotherhood but have implicated memory about the past. With different national feelings Russia and Ukraine estranged from each other gradually after the collapse of the Soviet Union. De Quanying and Jiang Shujuan The USA is making security strategy for Central Asia. Geographically the strategy took Afghanistan as the center covering Central Asia and South Asia. Economically this strategy tries to promote and implement trade and investment framework agreement between the USA and Central Asia focuses on the development of trade in Great Central Asia help Central Asian countries to reduce trade barriers promote integration between Central Asian countries and adjacent Afghanistan region. In energy field American strategy makes effort to build northern transportation network which links with the Central Asian Latvia and Russia. America also want to strength the cooperation with the Central Asian countries in security area to ensure the transit of American forces in Afghanistan. 96