T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo 600750.SH OTC 10 2007 20072008 1-2 200820100.48 0.540.62 -A 14.4 IBE_5 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 1,200.6 1,168.6 1,362.3 1,560.2 1,769.7 Growth(%) 22.6% -2.7% 16.6% 14.5% 13.4% 77.8 96.1 142.8 158.6 182.9 Growth(%) 46.2% 23.2% 47.6% 11.1% 15.3% (%) 63.1% 65.5% 65.1% 63.9% 63.0% (%) 6.5% 8.3% 10.5% 10.1% 10.3% () 0.27 0.33 0.48 0.54 0.62 () 2.52 2.83 3.14 3.49 3.90 44.8 36.4 24.7 22.2 19.3 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 (%) 10.4% 11.5% 15.3% 15.3% 15.9% ROIC(%) 8.9% 9.4% 13.9% 13.3% 13.8% EV/EBITDA 11.9 20.6 17.3 15.9 14.0 0.8% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% T_RankInfo -A 14.40 6 11.88 2008-04-11 T_MarketInfo 3,515.02 1,981.53 295.88 166.80 9.16/41.58 % 30.59% 48,740 12 % (17.53) (7.42) (33.53) (32.80) (41.22) (11.69) T_Analyst 010-66581623 zhaonan@essences.com.cn T_RelatedReport 1
1. OTC 1.1. 600750.SH 1996 8 1998 7 OTC 99.71 96.67 2002 100% 99% 1% 72.37% 43.63% 80% 600053.SH 600750.SH 96.67% 99.71% 49% 40% 20% 26.56% 6 2
1.2. IBE_5 20 IBE_5 60 8 CAGR 17.89 8 CAGR 19.6 8 CAGR 19.59% 2 20002007 3 20002007 16 12 8 4 0 3.68 3.55 6.68 9.41 8.34 9.79 11.81 11.66 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 4 20002007 5 20002007 12 9 6 3 2.69 2.06 4.74 7.05 6.49 8.13 9.87 9.40 160% 120% 80% 40% 0% 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.28 0.40 0.43 0.51 0.43 0.54 0.78 0.97 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 62% 48% 55% 38% 72% 73% 72% 74% 72% 57% 60% 59% 66% 64% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% 75% 66% 0-40% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3
1.3. 6 2. OTC 2.1. 4
2.2. 2.3. 2006 2007 12 28 2007 TOP10 2004 3. 2007 2007 2008 1-2 5
2 17 80 100 60 3.1. 2006 D- FDA D- D 1D-2 3 D 4 2007 3-5 300 7 45%14 21% 67.3% 11.7% 75% 88.3% 2006 5.1 65.8 27% 17 30% 5.1 2007 2 6
3.2. 18 8 158 / 146 / 80 2007 7-12 2 5 58.5% 2008 3.3. OTC 100 60 2007 7
3 12.80 12.80 12.80 13.50 4 1 2 14.00 15.20 13.50 12.00 8
4. OTC WHO OTC GDP 1 1.7 OTC OTC 1990 19 2005 800 15 28% 7 OTC 900 60% 50% 600 40% 30% 300 20% 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 10% 0% 8 2007 11 OTC 5.7 21 OTC OTC OTC 5 OTC 10 21 OTC 9
5. OTC 2007 20 5 2007 1 11 2 12 3 13 4 14 5 15 6 16 7 17 8 18 9 19 10 20 9 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 5.1. 2007 10
16% 40% 6 2007 1 6.65% 2 6.39% 3 4.75% 4 4.15% 5 3.93% 6 3.71% 7 2.80% 8 2.19% 9 999 2.10% 10 1.74% 7 2007 1 25.95% 2 17.51% 3 6.43% 4 6.11% 5 4.51% 6 3.14% 7 3.00% 8 2.98% 9 2.91% 10 2.60% 8 2007 1 10.00% 2 9.48% 3 999 5.07% 4 3.75% 5 999 3.57% 6 3.50% 7 2.48% 8 2.31% 9 1.97% 10 1.86% 11
5.2. 20 10%~20% 45 9 2007 TOP10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2003 2006 20062007 10 6000 4500 3000 1500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 12
6. 10 2001~2007 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001-1.25% 20.58% 17.38% -11.34% 40.96% 87.96% -3.59% -4.70% 21.37% 25.18% -7.91% 48.72% 129.87% -23.19% -15.66% 18.81% 46.61% 13.78% 4.24% 18.04% -8.99% 39.60% 7.53% -43.11% -32.03% 34.31% 24.45% 127.20% -2.66% 20.58% 17.38% -11.34% 40.96% 88.09% -3.63% 17.75% 28.31% 35.24% -43.54% 48.78% 2.26% 42.84% 23.17% 42.32% 24.39% -15.00% 17.38% 14.26% 7144.13% 65.53% 63.09% 65.66% 58.63% 59.52% 57.32% 38.24% 75.43% 72.09% 73.91% 72.22% 72.96% 72.30% 55.23% 22.32% 24.67% 27.46% 28.23% 23.32% 17.45% 15.22% 22.98% 17.07% 21.60% -0.57% 15.04% 18.95% 11.94% 51.73% 51.88% 55.57% 50.62% 47.76% 45.47% 14.52% 43.55% 42.61% 42.11% 36.04% 36.68% 37.55% 5.51% 7.21% 7.65% 12.34% 11.92% 10.15% 7.87% 8.94% 0.98% 1.62% 1.12% 2.66% 0.94% 0.05% 0.07% 10.36% 8.86% 8.21% 7.11% 11.07% 10.75% 21.85% 11.39% 10.11% 10.24% 8.74% 11.46% 10.40% 19.84% 8.22% 6.48% 5.41% 5.22% 6.67% 5.80% 13.44% 21.04% 24.69% 32.76% 25.14% 39.10% 44.17% 32.05% - 11.66% 10.99% 8.10% 6.99% 8.99% 8.66% 8.67% 31.42% 43.28% 39.02% 43.08% 35.17% 22.35% 13.80% 1.46 1.76 1.64 1.76 1.54 1.29 1.16 1.22 0.94 0.73 0.97 1.48 2.98 5.31 0.94 0.76 0.53 0.78 1.22 2.39 4.81 11.64 6.72 4.66 4.96 22.9 610.67 336.9 101.07 84.52 103.31 101.99 100.32 131.54 228.67 91.97 75.13 85.51 75.06 72.64 79.16 76.17 9.11 9.39 17.8 26.92 27.68 52.39 152.5 3.91 4.79 4.21 4.8 4.96 4.55 4.73 39.54 38.34 20.23 13.37 13.01 6.87 2.36 2.33 2.79 2.84 2.14 2.27 1.51 0.75 2.03 2 1.73 1.86 3.83 5.48 0.92 0.97 0.85 0.78 1.09 0.97 0.53 Wind 13
7. 20082010 0.48 0.54 0.62 -A 14.4 2008 30 10 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 13.6 15.6 17.7 19.8 16.57% 14.53% 13.43% 12.11% 65.13% 63.94% 63.03% 62.42% 106,386 116,164 126,877 138,616 13.12% 9.19% 9.22% 9.25% 11,220 12,342 13,576 14,933 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10,555 11,610 12,771 14,048 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00% 8. 8.1. 1965 2007 8.2. 8.3. 14
T_FSAndVS 2008-4-10 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 1,200.6 1,168.6 1,362.3 1,560.2 1,769.7 443.2 402.9 475.0 562.6 654.2 22.6% -2.7% 16.6% 14.5% 13.4% 13.0 13.3 13.6 15.6 17.7 32.3% 13.8% 45.7% 11.2% 16.0% 511.6 508.9 579.0 655.3 725.6 46.2% 23.2% 47.6% 11.1% 15.3% 91.8 84.2 102.2 117.0 132.7 EBITDA 26.1% 2.8% 21.5% 9.4% 12.9% 19.4 11.4 10.7 10.4 8.9 EBIT 34.1% 5.3% 41.2% 10.4% 14.4% 15.4 24.9 2.8 3.5 3.5 NOPLAT 53.2% 13.7% 44.0% 10.3% 13.8% - - - - - 7.2% -2.6% 15.9% 9.0% 7.9% 0.2-1.9-2.5 0.5 0.5 6.4% 12.2% 11.0% 11.1% 11.5% 106.4 121.1 176.5 196.2 227.6-3.1 0.6 2.0 2.0 1.0 63.1% 65.5% 65.1% 63.9% 63.0% 103.3 121.7 178.5 198.2 228.6 8.9% 10.4% 13.0% 12.6% 12.9% 25.5 25.6 35.7 39.6 45.7 6.5% 8.3% 10.5% 10.1% 10.3% 77.8 96.1 142.8 158.6 182.9 EBITDA/ 14.8% 15.6% 16.3% 15.5% 15.5% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E EBIT/ 10.5% 11.3% 13.7% 13.2% 13.4% 69.1 112.6 262.9 325.6 401.0 - - - - - 180 177 150 131 114 39.4 47.5 48.5 55.6 63.0 82 104 108 122 128 240.8 177.6 205.3 235.1 266.7 129 154 152 175 187 86.2 23.2 47.0 75.1 107.8 26 18 12 14 14 97.1 108.7 126.2 149.5 173.9 29 33 32 33 34 0.2 0.1-6.0-6.0-6.0 370 391 356 358 351 2.2 7.4 7.0 7.0 7.0 323 339 310 303 290 - - - - - 54.2 78.3 104.5 115.2 126.1 ROE 10.4% 11.5% 15.3% 15.3% 15.9% - - - - - ROA 5.9% 7.9% 9.7% 9.7% 10.1% 581.7 567.5 571.1 563.5 555.0 ROIC 8.9% 9.4% 13.9% 13.3% 13.8% 49.6 11.8 18.7 25.1 31.1 89.8 79.7 79.7 79.7 79.7 42.6% 43.5% 42.5% 42.0% 41.0% 6.4 7.5 8.0 8.5 9.0 7.6% 7.2% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 1,316.8 1,221.9 1,472.8 1,633.8 1,814.1 1.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 272.7 274.1 380.0 390.0 400.0 / 51.9% 51.7% 50.8% 50.2% 49.0% 82.6 78.6 84.6 100.2 116.5 50.0 - - - - 43.3% 31.4% 36.8% 36.7% 36.5% 164.4 31.0 77.6 109.9 145.0 76.3% 45.8% 58.3% 58.1% 57.4% - - - - - 0.94 1.22 1.26 1.39 1.52 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.76 0.92 1.02 1.13 1.25 569.9 383.9 542.4 600.2 661.7 6.48 11.59 17.46 19.82 26.71 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.8 146.1 295.9 295.9 295.9 295.9 DPS() 0.10-0.17 0.19 0.22 599.2 541.0 633.2 736.1 854.8 37.3% 0.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 746.8 838.0 930.4 1,033.6 1,152.5 0.8% 0.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 77.8 96.1 142.8 158.6 182.9 EPS() 0.27 0.33 0.48 0.54 0.62 62.3 60.5 34.4 35.9 37.4 BVPS() 2.52 2.83 3.14 3.49 3.90 15.4 24.9 2.8 3.5 3.5 PE(X) 44.8 36.4 24.7 22.2 19.3 - - - - - PB(X) 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 8.0 19.1 10.2 10.7 10.4 P/FCF - 62.0 46.6 63.8 42.0-0.2 1.9 2.5-0.5-0.5 P/S 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.0-0.6-0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 EV/EBITDA 11.9 20.6 17.3 15.9 14.0-116.1-113.8-41.8-45.4-49.9 CAGR(%) 26.8% 23.9% 11.6% -100.0% -100.0% 55.2 153.6 151.7 162.7 182.5 PEG 1.7 1.5 2.1-0.2-0.2-26.0-31.2-58.1-39.5-39.5 ROIC/WACC 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.5-43.7-79.0 44.9-55.8-62.8 REP 2.0 3.4 2.0 2.0 1.7 Wind.NET 15
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68801216 liangtao@essences.com.cn 021-68801217 zhangqin@essences.com.cn 021-68801229 ligr@essences.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essences.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essences.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essences.com.cn 0755-82558082 hesz2@essences.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essences.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essences.com.cn : 518026 : 200120 : 100034 16