2012 8
1. 2. 3. 2009 4. 5. 6. 2
6/29 8/3 STOXX 50 100 V2X Index 90 STOXX 50 >3 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 15 STOXX 50 % 10-10 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000-5 0-5 STOXX 50 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 6/29 4.96% 3 8/3 4.83% V2X V2X 2000 26 3 : Bloomberg, 1999.12.31-2012.7.10, 1999.12.31 STOXX 50-0.012% 1 1.60% 3
67% 1 62% STOXX 50 3 報 酬 為 正 之 次 數 總 次 數 8 8 13 24 24 21 單 日 漲 幅 (%) 未 來 3 個 月 報 酬 未 來 6 個 月 報 酬 未 來 1 年 報 酬 2001/9/24 6.62 21.6% 13.9% -27.1% 2002/7/5 5.03-20.7% -15.9% -21.3% 2002/7/29 7.33-17.8% -13.1% -8.8% 2002/8/6 5.92-11.1% -5.5% -6.0% 2002/8/8 5.2-18.2% -7.8% -8.1% 2002/9/26 6.03 11.2% -9.8% 2.8% 2002/10/11 5.24 5.7% -8.2% 8.5% 2002/10/15 7.19-0.6% -12.0% 2.9% 2003/1/2 5.69-15.1% -6.2% 9.5% 2003/3/13 6.77 17.0% 26.4% 43.5% 2003/3/14 5.31 12.7% 20.1% 36.3% 2008/1/24 6.46-5.2% -10.6% -43.3% 2008/9/19 8.42-26.5% -35.0% -11.3% 2008/10/13 11-7.2% -26.7% 8.4% 2008/10/29 5.61-2.5% -17.7% 10.5% 2008/11/4 5.56-6.4% -20.9% -1.6% 2008/11/24 9.9-6.5% -4.2% 21.8% 2008/12/8 8.76-4.1% -1.0% 18.2% 2009/3/10 6.05 26.8% 41.0% 50.0% 2009/4/2 5.67 12.0% 22.5% 32.2% 2010/5/10 10.35-4.5% 0.0% 7.0% 2011/9/27 5.31-4.7% 14.3% NA 2011/10/27 6.08-7.5% 2.5% NA 2011/11/28 5.23 10.7% 5.5% NA 2012/6/29 4.96 NA NA NA 2012/8/3 4.83 NA NA NA 6/29 8/3 2002/7-2002/10 2008/9-2008/12 2011/9-2011/11 : Bloomberg, 1999.12.31-2012.8.7, 1999.12.31 STOXX 50-0.012% 1 1.60% 4
TED (3 Libor 3 ) 7 TED ECB TED TED ECB : Bloomberg, 2012.8.8 5
2012 7 ( ) ( ) : Bloomberg, 2012.8.14, 6
LME : Bloomberg, 2012.8.14, 7
QE3 ( ) ( ) ( ) QE3 : Bloomberg, 2012.8.8 8
(Affordability Index) ( ) vs ( ) 100 200 205 : Bloomberg, 2012.8.10 9
~ S&P500 : Bloomberg, 2012.8.9 10
REITs (%) 8.0 7.6 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.4 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.8 5.8 4.7 4.0 3.0 MXWO :2.9% 2.0 1.0 10 :1.7% 0.0 (US REITs) 4.4% MSCI 2.89% 10 1.66% : Bloomberg, 2012.8.13 11
MACD (2000.1-2012.8) MACD (2010.1-2012.8) : Bloomberg, 2012.8.14, 12
S&P 500 1400 S&P500 S&P500 S&P500 S&P500 5 S&P500 1270 1400 1400 : Bloomberg, 2012.8.8 13
MSCI OW31% -> OW14% ( 14% 31%) : BofA Merrill Lynch, Fund Manager Survey Global, 2012.7.17 14
10 vs 10 10 ( ) 10 ( ) : Bloomberg, 2012.8.10 15
DXY DXY DXY ( ) DXY ( ) DXY MACD( ) ( ) : Bloomberg, 2012.8.8 16
Buy and hold 10 2010 2000-2010 10 2009 : Richard Bernstein Advisors LLC, Is buy and hold dead? 2012.7 17
(%) 31-45 46-55 Capegemini and BofA Merrill Lynch, World Wealth Report 2011 100 18
GDP vs 2010-2012 4 1997 Morgan Stanley, ASEAN Equity Strategy, 2012.6.20, 2012.8.12 5 4 5 19
100 80 60 75.5 67.7 63.3 40 20 0 7.2 11.3 3.5 21 25.1 25.4 1998 2003 2010 1998 2010 : ASEAN Community in figures 2011 CLMV 4 20
vs 10 ( ) 10 ( ) ( ) : Bloomberg, 2012.8.13 21
2009 MSCI ( ) MSCI ( ) 2009 2010 2011 2012? 2009 MSCI 11% : Bloomberg, 2012.8.13 22
/ ( ) ( ) / : Morgan Stanley, ASEAN Equity Strategy, 2012.8.7 23
FTSE 2005 2008 2000 2011 FDI 2011 2008 10 ( ) Bloomberg, 2012.8.13 ( ): World Bank Group, Bloomberg, 2001-2011 24
vs 10 MSCI vs 10 MSCI MSCI MSCI : Bloomberg, 2012.8.10 25
( ) http://www.fidelity.com.tw http://www.fundclear.com.tw 10% ;, Fidelity Fidelity Worldwide Investment, Fidelity Worldwide Investment F FIL Limited FIL Limited FIL Limited 100% 207 15 0800-00-9911 26