2006.03.09 5.81 4.88 A () 6.09 A () 3.46 () 1250.38 2.29 / A 725878/291311 A () 142160 64.80 94.93 126.45 167.85 205.92 (%) 57.1% 46.5% 33.2% 32.7% 22.7% 13.91 20.38 27.03 33.75 39.67 (%) 56.1% 46.5% 32.6% 24.9% 17.5% (/) 0.38 0.39 0.37 0.46 0.55 (%) 2.5% -5.3% 24.9% 17.5% 2.66 2.49 2.13 2.52 2.97 31.0% 38.0% 45.2% 30% 30% E-mail: zhangxi@chinastock.com.cn :(8610)6656 8223 5.81 / 1
2004 9493.25 6772.76 2005 12645.37 9684.20 2006E 16784.54 12915.77 2007E 20592.46 15758.59 510.24 594.23 829.02 1035.83 2210.25 2366.95 3039.75 3798.05 760.07 4385.59 1021.11 6006.51 1381.70 8290.22 1726.38 10358.31 4347.60 5617.76 7112.62 8507.77 1195.90 1357.99 1999.00 2497.68 2865.45 827.05 2038.40 4242.69 1540.17 2702.52 5113.61 1738.63 3374.99 6010.09 2043.43 3966.66 5184.45 7258.78 7258.59 7258.59 0.393 0.372 0.465 0.546 2.49 2.13 2.52 2.97 2
5.40% 5.20% 5.00% 4.80% 4.60% 4.40% 3.40% 3.20% 3.00% 2.80% 2.60% 2.40% 2003 4,315.44 6.6% 1H2004 9,458.27 13.7% 2004 26,183.44 29.5% 1H2005 25,789.36 30.0% 2005 19,912.45 25.0% 18,806.05 28.9% 42,049.54 64.5% 19,709.59 28.6% 39,847.88 57.7% 23,620.11 26.6% 38,849.90 43.8% 20,664.83 24.0% 39,512.83 46.0% 25,506.22 32.0% 34,199.70 43.0% 65,171.03 69,015.74 88,653.45 85,967.02 79,618.37 3
2004 127% 2004 2006 RIMV 6.19 /PB-ROE 5.44 / 5.81 / BVPS(2005) RIMV PB-ROE 4
2000 12 367 5000 n n 5
6
1+3 2004 7
8
9
10
1 5.78 23.12 7237% 2005 2004 2005 chg 27.70% 14.40% 5.80% 3.40% 25.90% 13.60% 3.60% 4.50% -1.80% -0.80% -2.20% 1.10% 7.60% 5.33% 7.90% 3.24% 0.30% -2.09% 2.72% 1.73% -0.99% 1.60% 0.97% -0.63% 1.84% 2.62% 1.84% 2.62% 6.13% 2.16% -3.97% 14.90% 15.10% 0.20% 10.40% 16.70% 6.30% 11
6 13.2 2.04 2006 100 3 200 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 12
8.00 / 20.0% 6.00 4.00 2.00-90.0% 75.0% 60.0% 45.0% 30.0% 15.0% 0.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00% 90.0% 75.0% 60.0% 45.0% 30.0% 15.0% 0.0% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 13
90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0-5.90% 5.70% 5.50% 5.30% 5.10% 4.90% 4.70% 4.50% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.50% 4.00% 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 2003 3.5 70% 14
15 12 2005 100% 12
16 1.00% 1.20% 1.40% 1.60% 1.80% 2.00% 2.20% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% 110.0% 120.0% 130.0% 15 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 13 14
: 12/31 2003a 2004a 2005a 2006e : 12/31 2003a 2004a 2005a 2006e () (2005) 3608.57 4445.28 5562.41 7264.50 38.6% 45.9% 48.6% 46.5% (/) 0.19 0.28 0.37 96.7 151.3 207.17 276.34 54.58 83.62 110.33 147.18 1.33 1.78 2.13 42.13 67.73 96.84 129.16 ROCE 0.39% 0.46% 0.49% 20.43 22.10 23.67 30.40 2.25 5.10 5.94 8.29 40.55 55.81 73.64 102.89 13.22 18.19 21.62 29.84 14.4% 15.8% 17.5% 10.55 11.96 13.58 19.99 0.37% 0.39% 0.46% 2.16 3.21 3.60 4.97 () 38.29 37.42 34.51 1Q(e) 2Q(e) 3Q(e) 4Q(e) 17
18