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Wind 1 20162018 2018 2 2019 2016 2017 80% 2017 78% 82% 1 2018 500 2017 300 2 2 20162018 Wind 60
3 20112015 49. 6% 51. 8% 2. 2 48% 44.7% 3.3 2018 76.2% 2018 11 8.1% 2003 6 3 3 Wind 20162018 2018 2019 2018 2018 2019 2017 GDP 2.5 1400 4 2019 1. 2017 47. 0% 5 20172018 61
36.4% 37.0% 6 2016 GDP 3.0% 20162018 GDP 3.55% 4.01% 4.07% 2019 2.15 2018 8000 2019 GDP 2017 19.9% 7 IMF 51.8% 16.47 2016 21 30.5 1.42 20% 65%78% 8 Wind 20042016 1 20% 2018 7.7 5600 8% 2019 3523 17 842 9 2019 1 60% 90%150% 2016 60% 11 100% 12 29 100% 10 GDP 2016 GDP 11 2. 2017 160.3% 12 2017 158.2% 2018 153.6% 4. 6 13 101.6% 95.2% 73.5% 104.6% 2017 99.7 BIS 129.8 144.1 1 62 GDP
70% 14 2017 78.4% 2017 Wind 136 79% 12 15 Wind 2018 5 24 20 150 2017 2018 2018 33.81% 34.71% 16 2015 2018 1493 775 17 3. 2018 A 2493.90 24.59% 34% 2008 29% 2011 35.88% A 43.36 13.26 1.45 A 8 2017 12 2018 Wind 1200 40% 18 2018 IPO 10 4. 2016 2019 2019 5. 2018 24 10% 2019 3 21 2015 63
2018 27% 2011 2019 1. 2012 20122017 23 241 21 824 4 500 2019 600 800 2009 20092017 1671 / 819 / 5 2018 2019 2. 300 19 3. 2019 Wind 4 20092017 2018 2019 1. 2019 64
5 20092017 Wind 2018 3.7% 9 IMF 0.4 2.5% 0.1 0.2 1.9% 0.9% 2019 2019 2. 2017 10 2018 10 137 11 5883 7 20 TPP 232 301 21 3. 2019 2018 65
2019 2019 22 23 2018 2019 MLF PSL MLF 66
24 25 1 4 11. GDP 6.9% EB /OL. 2018-04-16. http / / www.eeo.com.cn /2018 /0416 /326734.shtml. 2.2018 EB /OL. 2018-10- 22. http / /www.sohu.com /a /290740107_ 120055288. 3. N. 2018-12-26. 5 7 12 14. 2018 J. 2018 8 5-19. 6 13. 2018 N. 2019-03-20. 8 10 EB /OL. 2018-03-12. http / /www.ccxi.com.cn /cn /News /info /4286. 9. EB /OL. 2018-07-31. http / /www.caijing.com.cn /. 15 13 A 7700 EB /OL. 2018-05- 17. http / /finance.ce.cn /rolling / 67
201805 /17 / t20180517_29157377.shtml. 16 180 EB /OL. 2018-05- 15. http / /www.southmoney.com /jijin / jijinkanshi /201805 /2255634.html. 17 2018 12 EB /OL. 2019-01- 01. http / /finance.sina.com.cn /stock /usstock /c /2019-01- 01 / doc-ihqfskcn3043498.shtml. 18. 2019 J. 2019 1 6-13. 19 24 2019 EB /OL. 2019-01 - 10. https / /new. qq. com /omn /20190110 / 20190110A1DZVX. 20 2018 EB /OL. 2018-12-14. https / /baijiahao.baidu.com /s id = 1619840172698877356&wfr = spider&for = pc. 21 EB /OL. 2018-11-01. http / /www.drc.gov.cn /xsyzcfx /20181101 /4-4- 2897273.htm. 22 EB /OL. 2019-01- 23. http / /www.chinanews.com /gn / 2019 /01-23 /8736619.shtml. 23 2019 3 15 EB /OL. 2019-03-05. http / /www.npc.gov.cn /npc /xinwen /2019-03 /15 /content_2083536.htm. 25. EB /OL. 2018-07-20. http / /wemedia.ifeng.com /89234583 /wemedia.shtml. The Risks of China s Current Economy and Countermeasures Li Wen-jun Institute of Quantitative and Technological Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Beijing 100732 Abstract Under the combined effect of external environmental deterioration and internal adjustment factors China s economic operation will face many risks in 2019. This paper deeply analyses the main risk sources such as weak growth of aggregate demand agglomeration of financial risks increasing unemployment pressure and external risk input and points out that prevention and resolution of risks should strengthen the bottom line thinking balance the relationship between stable growth and risk prevention and keep the bottom line of no systematic risk. Considering both the length and the situation we should not only ensure that the economic operation slips out of a reasonable range and the growth expectation is stable but also avoid short-term strong stimulus policies damaging long-term development and creating new risks. Keywords Economic Risk Financial Risk Supply -side Structural Reform Aggregate Demand Employment 68