AA

/ 440400 (601628), 29 2006 1 9 / 18.88 / 2.39 ( ) 2826400/150000 B /H /744117 : 2 2006.12 20 16% 2006 46% 2006.08 2006.04 2006.04 35% 20 14.4% yubin@sw108.com liyamin@sw108.com (8621) 63295888450 huhaoping@sw108.com 99 862163295888 http://www.sw108.com : % 150000 2004 66257-7223 - 0.27 10.8 12 26 2005 81022 22.3% 9365 29.7% 0.35 11.6 2006E 99208 22.4% 17495 86.8% 0.65 14.0 + 2007E 128365 29.4% 19399 10.9% 0.69 13.0 / 2008E 158987 23.9% 26871 38.5% 0.95 15.0 2007.01.09 A 2006 11.5% A 10.66% 24.4 31% NBV/APE 2006 26.4 10% 29 10-12% 5 20%

2 20 16% 2006 46% 35% 20 14.4% 1.5 1.8 11.5% A 10.66% 24.4 31% NBV/APE 10% 2006 11 10% 2006 26.4 10% 29 11% 5 20% 1

1 20 CAGR 16% 2 1.1. 16-60 20 1 15-64 2005 32.6 2025 39.5 2010 2015 10 2020 43.5% 2005 2.6% 0.3% 1% 2015 2

1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 % 1 2005-2015 20% 2015 10 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 2005-2015 1985 1990 1995 40.9% 43.5% 39.1% 38.4% 2000 2005 2010 UN Population Division 1985 3.89 2002 3.01 1985 5.12 2002 4.13 2006 1.85 30% 25% 2005 2001 2075 9.15 1.2 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 40% 5.88 2005 7 86% 18.7% 2005 1.5 37.4 4% 15% 2040 2045 2050 3

6% 2% 1% 3% 5% 12% 13% 14% 14% 7% 1% 2% 18% 18% 25% 2% 5% 6% 39% 36% 11% 16% 4% 30% 27% 15% 14% 3% 13% 36% 36% 19% 39% 10% 13% 88% 6% 2 30% 19% 4% 60% 53% 8% 43% 35% 34% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 42% Insurance density US$ 24% 24% 17% 1% 14% 8% 10% 16% 4% 11% 7% 15% 26% 55% 67% 56% 34% 77% 72% 96% 72% 72% 66% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 40% 33% 38% 29% 13% 14% 15% 18% 18% 1.3 GDP 2000 4000 225 200 175 150 3 S Beijing Shanghai 125 GDP 2000-100 4000 75 Tianjin 50 Fujian Jiangsu Zhejiang Xinjiang Guangdong 25 Shangdong 0 200 1200 2200 3200 4200 5200 GDP per cap US$ CEIC 3% 4

1.4 20 5% GDP 2006 GDP 10.5%2007 2015 GDP 8.5%9% 2025 5%, 2005 4.34% 2005 5. 19% 4 12 % 10 GDP 8 6 4 2 0 sigma 20 16% 2 2005-2025 16% Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2010E Y2015E Y2020E Y2025E % 9.90 10.50 9.80 8.45 8.37 5.59 5.09 % 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 GDP % 14.52 13.26 12.55 11.16 11.08 8.23 7.72 GDP183085 207367 233381 324573 549640 859926 1258900 8.19 7.82 7.51 6.75 5.79 5.11 4.86 GDP 22260 26517 31076 48085 94929 168283 258927 12.98 13.20 13.60 14.00 14.50 15.00 15.52 GDP 1715 2009 2285 3435 6547 11219 16686 % 1.78 1.81 2.01 2.65 3.76 4.65 5.00 396 480 625 1274 3569 7825 12946 3245 3753 4691 8601 20666 39987 62945 GDP 5

16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2 CAGR 14.4% 2.1 2005 2006 44.1%49.4% 3 % 2005 2006 1,609 44.1 1,114 49.4 588 16.1 373 16.5 362 9.9 192 8.5 211 5.8 145 6.4 178 4.9 109 4.8 698 19.1 322 14.3 3,646 100 2,255 100 648000 12000 3600 2003 2005 5 / 2003 2004 2005 2003 1999 6 10 6

1999 6 2.5% 04-05 4 2003 % 28.5154.6463.9437.7368.3659.7457.09 5818.7736.0969.9136.4361.62 61.352.98 58.8673.42 2003 % 62.8555.4263.4948.11 69.943.3738.7583.7462.23 88.6471.27 6081.5851.0163.9475.96 68.1543.45 6 CEIC 1788.94 1750 649.13 451.44 338 384.82 253.39 255.82 246.65 167.23 132.28 224.67 152.94 192.44 130.09 131.35 209.98 112.55 108 271.5 142.16 124.49 148.94 151.75 126.37 171.07 127.98 100.84 129.13 64.94 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Shanghai Beijing Tianjin Zhejiang Guangdong Jiangsu Fujian Liaoning Shandong Hebei Hainan Heilongjiang Hubei Jilin Hunan Henan Shanxi Jiangxi Anhui Xinjiang Inner Mongolia Qinghai Chongqing Ningxia Sichuan Shaanxi Yunnan Guangxi Gansu Guizhou Insurance density RMB 2.2 50% METLIFE 4% AVIVA PRUDENTIAL 13.9% 1982 7

2001 12 11 2003 2004 2004 7 97% 91% 94% 3% 9% 6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2004 2005 200611 2006 11 2005 10% 15% 5% 8

35% 20 14.4% 5 2005-2025 14.4% Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2010E Y2015E Y2020E Y2025E 3245 3753 4691 8601 20666 39987 62945 46.00% 46.00% 46.00% 43.0% 41.0% 38% 35.2% 1493 1727 2158 3699 8473 15195 22169 15.66% 24.98% 19.12% 18.00% 11.22% 7.48% 1.49 2.55 2.26 2.15 2.01 1.47 2.3 3 20% 25% 4-7% 6 Y2004 Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2008E Y2009E 66,257 81,022 99,208 128,365 158,987 195,159 61,063 74,939 92,669 120,521 149,908 184,661 5194 6083 6539 7843 9080 10498 117,094 125,688 151,278 198,516 246,708 302,533 50,113 63,205 80,177 107,199 135,690 169,419 19,900 19,574 24,830 33,198 42,022 52,467 2,526 1,085 1,242 1,660 2,101 2,623 17,374 18,489 23,589 31,538 39,921 49,844 30,213 43,631 55,347 74,000 93,668 116,951 66,981 62,483 71,101 91,317 111,019 133,115 22,100 24,330 23,502 22,184 20,328 18,641 344 867 1190 1456 1639 1783 21,756 23,463 22,312 20,728 18,689 16,859 10,606 10,867 11,302 11,867 12,579 13,459 9

2/3 3 2 3.1 2005 2002 7 2002 2002 2002 2001 2002 2002 2005 57.86 37.44 33.3 22.5 50.3 30.29 52.82 23.42 35.38 25.6 32.3 11.1 9.15 7.82 7.41 1.25 11 14.81 0.97 6.05 2.6 8 4.2 6.08 3.11 0.19 7.23 6.61 0.5 4.5 2.89 7.43 25.7 34.9 29.9 12.04 31.66 1.3 2.3 8.32 37.21 16.42 2005 99 5 8 99 5 /03 6 20% /AA 04 3 /6 04 7 20% 99 10 /01 3 5% 30% 100% 04 8 04 10 /05 2 <5% <=100% <=80% 10

06 3 5 2 06 6 06 10 3% 8 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2008E Y2009E Y2010E Y2011E Y2012E Y2013E Y2014E Y2015E Y2016E Y2017E 3.2 2006 55.2% 37.5% 7.1% 2006 4.5%3.1% 4.9% AXA 5.32% 11

2007 4.4%, 4.3% 5-5.5% 9 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2008E Y2009E Y2010E Y2011E Y2012E Y2013E Y2014E Y2015E Y2016E Y2017E Y2018E Y2019E Y2020E 3.3 3.3.1 4 70% 9 2.5% 2-2.5% 70% 12

3.3.2 2.5% 2.5% 2001-2005 2001 67% 2005 30% 21% 62% 2006 2006 10 3% 65% -19% 53% 26% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% CAGR2001-2005 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% LH LH RH RH 1999 2006 2006 11 11% 13

10.3% 2/3 4 4.1 2 EV 2006 EV NBV 05 3 = EV+ NBV* + 4.2 2005 2005 4.0% 2013 5.2% 0.72% 33%. 22% 26% 11.5% APE + /10 APE 22% 15% 14

2025 3% NBV/APE 31% 2006 20 2007 2008 11.6%11.8% 3/4 1/10 10 y2006 y2007 y2008 Y2009 2009-2015 2016-2025 2006 41.80 1.15 1.26 1.38 9.67 15.04 13.30 2007 35.36 1.10 1.20 8.41 13.09 11.57 2008 31.20 1.09 7.66 11.92 10.54 11 Y2004 Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2008E A 52909 70143 108960 120599 136722 D (B + C) 37164 43811 58075 78178 101648 E (A + D) 90073 113954 167035 198777 238370 F 8550 9324 11852 15319 18885 G -2046-1834 -2326-3111 -3937 H (F + G) 6504 7489 9525 12208 14948 49 42 35 31 365617 398138 431715 466414 479571 565173 630492 704784 3.37 4.26 5.91 7.03 8.43 17.92 20.00 22.31 24.93 11.6% 11.8% 4.3 NBV/APE 31% NBV/APE 2, 2 15

NBV/APE 12 NBV/APE AXA2005 21% PRUDENTIAL2005 40% AVIVA2005 14% 29% 2004 58% 2005 69% 2005 24% 2005 29% 31% NBV/APE 2.5% 2-2.5% 31%NBV/APE 4.4 132005 EV NBV 10.50% 48,716 8,446 11.50% 43,811 7,489 12.50% 39,524 6,659 y=309x 2-11703x+137530 y=63.5x 2-2354x+26162 8% 63,682 11,394 9% 57,232 10,120 10% 51,400 8,972 16

11% 46,186 7,952 10.5%11.5%12.5% 2 14 PRUDENTIAL 2005 2004 UK 7.6% 7.1% 7.7% 7.1% US 6.9% 6.1% 6.1% 5.8% CHINA 12.0% 10.0% 12.0% 10.0% KOREA 10.3% 7.1% 10.3% 7.1% INDIA 16.5% 16.0% AXA 16.5% 16.0% 7.1% 6.2% 8.37% 7.97% 11.5% 12.0% 11.5% 12.0% A A 2006 9.68%( 3% 6.84%) 2007 9.84 2012 8% 1.12 10.66% 8.6% 0.388%, 4% NBV 5% 17

15 ERP 2007-2011 6.84 3 9.84 2007-2016 5 3 8 2017-2026 4 3.8 7.8 ERP6.84 10 3 9.84 ERP 10 5 3 2007-2016 8 10 16 15 Purdential AXA 0.958 1.31 1.3 1.12 1.14 0.76 bloomberg/2 10.66% 26.6 11.5% 22% 17 10.66% / 11.5% Y2006E Y2007E Y2008E 20.00 22.31 24.93 10.66% 167035 198777 238370 H (F + G) 9525 12208 14948 48 40 35 455209 491526 528974 626323 694381 771423 6.05 7.18 8.58 22.16 24.57 27.29 10.9% 11.1% 10% 24.37 27.02 30.02 4.4 2005 1.5-1.8 1% 18

5-5.5% 1% X = X- 18 20% 30% 40% 50% 12.5% 0.10 0.21 0.31 0.41 25% 0.21 0.41 0.62 0.83 2007 6071 9.8% 51% 70% 70% 75% 25% 07 33% 0.5%, 10% 4.5 8.4% 2008 19.5% 25.7%, 8.4% 19 19

22.0% 33.0% 25.7% 22.0% 25.0% 19.5% 8.4% 4.6 26.8-28.4 6 2005 1 10.66% 2 26.4 20 / Y2004 Y2005 Y2006 Y2007 Y2008 11.5% 33% 3.37 4.26 5.91 7.03 8.43 20.00 22.31 24.93 110.66% 33% 24.37 27.02 30.02 210.66% 25% 26.42 29.29 32.54 310.66% 2025 5% 8%31%NBV/APE 34.3 38.5 42.2 410.66% 25% 46% 31.39 34.79 38.68 510.66% 40%NBV/APE 1 23% 30 33.23 36.92 2 1/10 1/3 2006 26.4 10% 29 11% 5 20% 20

5 / 0.13 / 0.99 1 2007.1.3 2005 / / AXA CS FP 88,262 682,388 109,776 0.13 0.80 66% Assicurazioni Generali G IM 57,423 408,894 99,974 0.14 0.57 63% Manulife MFC CN 52,215 277,160 26,457 0.19 1.97 100% Metlife MET US 45,728 481,645 44,776 0.09 1.02 93% Prudential US PRU US 41,314 417,776 31,708 0.10 1.30 100% Aviva AV/ LN 42,204 452,786 74,399 0.09 0.57 100% Aegon AGN NA 31,637 368,261 53,610 0.09 0.59 91% Prudential UK PRU LN 34,536 356,419 74,748 0.10 0.46 100% Great-West Lifeco GWO CN 25,529 152,546 19,707 0.17 1.30 100% Sun Life SLF CN 24,097 147,841 18,095 0.16 1.33 100% 0.13 0.99 2 ROE% 2005 2006E 2007E 2005 2006E 2007E 2005 2006E 2007E AXA CS FP 14.5 13.5 12.3 1.8 1.7 1.6 13.4 13.8 14.6 Assicurazioni Generali G IM 22.3 18.3 15.9 3.1 2.8 2.5 16.5 16.0 16.3 Manulife MFC CN 17.1 16.1 14.2 2.6 2.5 2.3 14.2 16.2 17.0 Metlife MET US 12.4 12.0 11.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 18.7 13.8 12.6 Prudential US PRU US 15.5 14.3 12.7 1.8 2.0 1.8 15.7 13.9 14.5 Aviva AV/ LN 11.0 10.6 10.1 2.3 3.4 3.2 21.8 18.2 16.1 Aegon AGN NA 9.5 10.0 10.2 1.2 1.3 1.2 15.6 12.8 11.9 Prudential UK PRU LN 22.9 13.0 11.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 15.5 15.3 16.6 Great-West Lifeco GWO CN 16.2 15.7 13.9 3.2 2.9 2.6 20.7 20.5 21.4 Sun Life SLF CN 13.9 13.5 12.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 12.7 13.5 14.1 15.5 13.7 12.4 2.3 2.3 2.1 16.5 15.4 15.5 21

3 Y2004 Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2008E Y2009E 66,257 81,022 99,208 128,365 158,987 195,159-1,182-769 -747.656-785.0388-832.1411-890.391 65,075 80,253 98,460 127,580 158,155 194,268-67 -215-205.88-267.644-337.2314-417.0429 65,008 80,038 98,254 127,312 157,818 193,851 11,317 16,685 29,047 29,786 37,235 50,100-510 500 0 0 0-237 260 8000 0 0 0-1,061 1,779 1,739 1,820 1,862 1,905 1,948 76,806 98,212 137,621 158,960 196,957 245,900-6,816-8,311-9,815-12,906-16,075-19,759-6,418-6,847-6,894-7,239-7,673-8,210-25,361-33,977-41,729-55,691-70,375-87,738-3,704-4,894-6,558-7,866-9,106-10,529-616 -973-1057.532-1268.471-1468.433-1697.856-7,793-8,521-10,648-14,222-17,985-22,437-2,048-5,359-16,767-8,490-10,561-13,009-6,263-7,766-9,831-12,969-16,240-20,090-1,472-1,845-2,209-2,817-3,459-4,219-6,585-7,237-7,922-8,834-9,679-10,568-131 -798-519 -677-839 -1,030-96 -174-242 -292-345 -408-67303 -86702-114,192-133,270-163,806-199,694 9,503 11,510 23,430 25,690 33,152 46,205-2,280-2,145-5,935-6,291-6,280-9,010-24.0% -18.6% -25.3% -24.5% -18.9% -19.5% 7223 9365 17,495 19,399 26,871 37,195 4 22

Y2004 Y2005 Y2006E Y2007E Y2008E Y2009E 12,250 12,710 12,685 12,659 12,634 12,609 32,787 37,741 39,842 41,943 44,044 46,145 348,757 467,765 597,491 728,749 881,388 1,066,970 150,234 255,554 330,051 394,036 469,414 557,368 79,603 146,297 198,031 236,422 281,649 334,421 96,425 115,518 137,913 164,295 195,079 69,791 0 0 0 0 12,832 16,503 19,702 23,471 27,868 840 0 0 0 0 17,271 39,548 73,345 92,933 135,408 191,254 26,261 44,007 55,760 81,245 114,752 12,597 0 0 0 0 13,287 29,338 37,173 54,163 76,501 4,674 0 0 0 0 175,498 164,869 193,359 239,912 279,502 323,831 279 0 0 0 0 5,084 6,813 7,953 9,817 11,401 13,175 3,912 4,959 6,072 7,857 9,731 11,945 1,297 1,182 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 27,217 28,051 29,479 31,780 33,709 35,616 3,451 1,458 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 433,671 559,219 688,768 826,188 984,706 1,176,484 1,215 1,784 1,855 1,948 2,065 2,210 5,212 5,147 5,353 5,621 5,958 6,375 89,698 124,656 152,475 189,602 236,519 295,011 191,885 237,001 270,058 308,739 353,678 405,129 27,603 34,631 42,404 54,867 67,955 83,416 32,476 42,230 45,899 55,054 63,733 73,690 1,635 1,872 2,035 2,440 2,825 3,267 4,731 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 2,801 4,492 5,500 7,117 8,815 10,820 2,447 2,951 3,613 4,675 5,791 7,108 2,037 6,204 7,597 9,829 12,174 14,944 23

4,922 4,106 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 38 525 642.83912 831.766817 1030.1924 4,371 7,982 11495.7747 16188.9757 20685.236 26294.473 429 98 340 632 977 1,384 366769 478410 563,268 671,545 796,205 944,912 26,765 26,765 28,265 28,265 28,265 28,265 31,573 37,225 69,875 87,330 104,998 125,657 8,192 16,388 26,819 38,385 54,406 76,583 66,530 80,378 124,959 153,980 187,669 230,505 372 431 541 663 833 1067 66,902 80,809 125,500 154,644 188,501 231,572 433,671 559,219 688,768 826,188 984,706 1,176,484 1264.5746 24

6 (Buy) 20 (Outperform) 5 20 (Neutral) 5 5 (Underperform) 5 6, (Overweight) (Neutral) (underweight) 300 25