カテゴリー Ⅱ 日本建築学会論文集第 82 巻第,297-2913,17 年 11 月 J. Archit. Plann., AIJ, Vol. 82 No. 741, 297-2913, Nov., 17 DOI http://doi.org/1.313/aija.82.297 住宅 土地統計調査を用いた住宅残存率曲線の決定手法および既存住宅築年推定法の検討 DETERMINATION METHOD OF RESIDUAL RATE CURVE USING HOUSING AND LAND SATATISING SURVEY, AND APPLOCATION TO ESTIMATION OF BUILDING YEAR * 小浦孝次 Kouji KOURA The number of houses built before 1944 were calculated by using Housing and Land Survey. The residual ratio curve of the house was calculated by using Housing and Land Survey, and the number of new housing starts in the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport's (MLIT). The three parameters were decided for presumption. As a result, it became possible to estimate the year in which total houses, occupied houses and vacant houses were built. Changes in the number of residual houses by construction year were obtained by comparing estimation results of "housing and land statistics surveys" every 5 years. Keywords : Existing houses, Presumption method, Residual ratio curve, Year of Construction, Simulation,,,, * JSP 総合技術本部主管 Senior Manager, JSP Corporation, General Technology Division 297
S23 5 H1 35 1948 5 () S53H H 1 1) 2) 3) 3 19 193 (19141918 ) 1923 1927 (1929 ) (193 )(1938 )(19391945 ) 25 298
4)5) Breakdown Unoccupied Occupied Temporary Vacant Under occupants As second For rent or sale Others construction only dwellings 195 1951196 1961197 1971198 1981199 year 19911995 of 1996 construction 13 4 5 6 7 Jan.Sep.8 Not reported Survey year S23 S33 S38 S43 S48 S53 S58 S63 H5 H1 H15 H H25 1948 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 3 8 13 13,847,769 17,411,,372, 24,197,9 28,73,5 35,45,5 38,66,8 42,7,3 45,878,7 5,246,1 53,89,8 57,585,9 6,628,6 1913 4,185, 19131926 2,738, 19271941 171, 1941 11,628,165 7,94, 9,259, 19421944 579,539 811, 684, 1944 7,95, 9,943, 8,496,6 6,227,7 4,92,3 3,67, 2,71,4 2,144,3 1,647,1 1945195 2,599, 2,37, 1,85,89 1,498, 1,266,1 993,3 824,5 668,4 195 1,54, 12,313, 8,33,59 6,4,5 4,936,1 3,694,7 2,968,8 2,315,5 2,188,3 1,858,5 1,639,9 year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 186 329,68 332,35 187 335,13 338,9 341,19 344,437 347,836 351,393 355,116 359,12 363,87 367,35 188 371,87 376,469 381,342 386,436 391,759 397,323 43,137 49,21 415,555 422,183 189 429,15 436,335 443,885 451,768 46,1 468,596 477,572 486,944 496,731 56,951 19 517,626 528,777 54,427 552,63 565,332 578,644 592,574 67,159 622,441 638,467 191 655,294 672,983 683,553 321,239 334,69 348,379 364,367 382,262 42,336 424,99 19 45,363 479,161 511,864 549,163 591,922 641,231 663,499 193 135,346 194 335,66 549,12 123,427 319,77 547,733 1944 Nunber of houses (Ten thousand houses after 1945 18 before 1944 Statistics 16 14 1 1 8 6 4 186 188 19 19 194 196 198 299
Probability of survival Nunber of houses 1.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 4 6 8 1 1 14 Age of house (year) 18 16 14 1 1 8 6 4 186 188 19 19 194 196 198 Target statistics Occupied Without not repoted Coefficient Average Standard deviation Nunber of houses ().3967 2.8313.6861 58,92,519.4132 2.5736.784 5,14,919.4219 2.4534.81 46,551,119 Nunber of houses 14 1 1 8 6 4 Probability of survival Occupied Occupied without not repoted Statistical value 1 1998.9 3.8 8.7 13.6.5.4.3.2.1 4 6 8 1 1 14 Age of house (year) Statistical year Average life(year) Occupied 1998 37.8 27.8 3 4.1 29.7 8 42.7 31.7 13 46.8 35.5 291
Number of total houses 18 16 1998 14 3 1 8 13 1 8 6 4 186 188 19 19 194 196 198 Year built (year) Number of vacant houses 35 3 H1 H15 25 H H25 15 1 5 186 188 19 19 194 196 198 Year built (year) Number of occupied houses 18 16 1998 14 3 1 8 1 13 8 6 4 186 188 19 19 194 196 198 Year built (year) 1998 3 8 13 2,315,8 2,143,56 2,3,11 1,985,446 1945196 Vacant houses 768,193 676,84 639,157 657,378 Vacant houses rate (%) 33.2 31.6 31.5 33.1 6,541,235 5,938,769 5,479,156 5,339,965 1961197 Vacant houses 1,654,228 1,564,45 1,499,691 1,57,345 Vacant houses rate (%) 25.3 26.3 27.4 28.2 13,263,25 12,165,96 11,185,781 1,855,234 1971198 Vacant houses 2,147,386 2,426,564 2,515,27 2,515,216 Vacant houses rate (%) 16.2 19.9 22.5 23.2 13,82,513 13,362,665 12,644,976 12,274,157 1981199 Vacant houses 436,991 1,114,296 1,675,714 1,79,115 Vacant houses rate (%) 3.2 8.3 13.3 14.6 11,527,551 11,515,751 11,383,393 11,3,698 19911998 Vacant houses 231 77,11 448,942 689,381 Vacant houses rate (%)..7 3.9 6.2 period Number of dismantled houses 1999 3 2,226,513 97, 4 8 2,226,44 887, 9 13 1,234,235 743, 7 H115 H15 5 H25 5 123 2 9 H115 H15H 5 197 1973 1978 H25 5 198 197 197 H3 Number of dismantled houses 16 14 12 1999 3 1 4 8 7 13 8 6 4 2-2 186 188 19 19 194 196 198 2911
Nunber of houses 1 1 8 6 4 Estimated housing number Statistics for 13 Error rate (%) Estimated housing number Occupied Statistics for 13 Error rate (%) Estimated housing number Occupied Occupied without no repoted Statistical value Occupied without no repoted () Statistics for 13 Error rate (%) 58,241,623 61,95,225-4.7 49,392,45 52,568,825-6. 48,79,634 48,361,475.9 195 3,713,447 2,45,189 2,336,59 1,639,9 42.5 1951196 1,162,711 79,81 765,98 925, -17.3 1961197 4,86,845 3,399,78 3,37,598 3,294,.4 1971198 9,93,93 7,42,187 7,242,145 8,331,6-13.1 1981199 11,66,143 9,56,195 9,374,712 9,662,7-3. 19911995 6,833,917 6,74,665 6,25,683 5,391,7 11.8 1996 6,543,888 6,181,694 6,156,846 5,661,8 8.7 15 5,91,457 5,843,67 5,839,124 5,479,6 6.6 68 3,444,646 3,444,39 3,444,362 3,676,5-6.3 9 788,41 788,41 788,41 78841*. 1 813,126 813,126 813,126 813126*. 11 834,117 834,117 834,117 834117*. 12 882,797 882,797 882,797 882797*. 13 98,25 98,25 98,25 9825*. * House construction start statistics 4 Toshiharu IKAGA et.al., AIJ Journal of Technology and Design. Des No.22 pp.263-268, 5.5 Yukio KOMATSU, Journal of Architecture and Building Science Vol.117, No.1494, pp.28-29, 2 Yukio KOMATSU, Journal of Architecture, Planning and Environmental Engineering (Transactions of AIJ), No.439, pp.91-99, 1992.9 2912
DETERMINATION METHOD OF RESIDUAL RATE CURVE USING HOUSING AND LAND SATATISING SURVEY, AND APPLOCATION TO ESTIMATION OF BUILDING YEAR Kouji KOURA * * Senior Manager, JSP Corporation, General Technology Division In the building administration, it is necessary to improve existing buildings as earthquake resistant, fire prevention and energy conservation countermeasures. Grasp of the number of residual houses by building year is important. In this paper, the building year estimation method for existing buildings using "Housing and Land Statistics Survey" in the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications(MIC) Bureau of Statistics. At first, the number of houses built in each year was estimated. The residual rate curve of the housing can be calculated using three parameters and three statistics (estimated housing starts before 1944, the number of new housing starts by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport since 1945, housing and land statistics survey). The building year distribution of housing in 13 was estimated from the 8 survival curve. The estimation result was similar to the statistics of 13. This method was confirmed that this estimation method is effective for short-term future prediction. This estimation method is effective for grasping the number of residual houses for each building year which was previously difficult. For example, in the total number of homes, the total number of houses with residence, vacancy, in a lost house. Furthermore, changes in the number of residual houses by construction year were obtained by comparing estimation results of "housing and land statistics surveys" every 5 years. (17 年 4 月 4 日原稿受理,17 年 7 月 日採用決定 ) 2913