--2005 6 2 2005 6 A 86-0755-82943202 zhaojx@ccs.com.cn 86-0755-82960074 huangsx@ccs.com.cn 86-0755-82943566 luxw@ccs.com.cn 86-0755-82960739 jingzz@ccs.com.cn 2005-6-2 1996 2005 A 4 5 6 6 A+H 2005 A, 2005-4-6 2005 5 A A 2005-5-8 1/17
A 1.1 2004 1996 2005 A 5 5 1996 A 18 4 6 A 7 7 A 96-01 A 96 4 2010 96 A 30 1999 2000 A 30 60 2001 6 76.98 61.89 A A 2/17
1996 A 1 A 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 PE 11.44 940729 33.77 940913 15.45 950207 24.84 950522 17.51 960122 53.48 961209 39.73 961224 62.34 970512 35.6 970923 49.93 980603 38.6 40.51 980818 990518 64.47 990630 49.98 991227 76.98 010613 49.41 020128 63.62 020628 43.67 030103 53.18 030415 41.842.01 031113 040406 34.2 29.24 26.43 23.6 040913 040923 050201 050308 16.22 050526 2500.00 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 0.00 ( ) ( ) 2 A PE 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 68.89 199212 36.80 199312 23.4722.14 16.98 199412 199512 43.44 33.86 35.64 30.57 32.53 199612 199712 12.26 199812 28.50 199912 63.1762.37 200012 200112 46.38 200212 34.86 200312 22.67 16.79 19.54 200412 15.11 200505 A S&P500 Index HSI Index BLOOMBERG 3/17
A 2001 WTO 2002 1300 40 A 76 15 2200 500 A H 2003 A 2005 A 2005 A 1997 1000 1996 A 4/17
A A A 6 2.1 4 4 45.9 22.5 1 4 25.7 4 26.4 3 4 16 GDP 4 5 6 5/17
1-4 500 3893 15.6% 27 1-4 718 46.1% 10863 19.5% 22769 15.4% 05 12 15 05 0.072 2.62 25.03 6.37 2004 28.45 2004 43.46 2.2 6/17
5 17 5 15 20 5 24 5 31 6 QFII 7/17
A 5 6 3.1 5 A 5 A+H 5 A H A A-H 30% 20% 1035 1100 8/17
9/17 3 4 2004 10 259 269 279 289 299 309 0401 0408 0415 0422 0429 0513 0520 0527 1030 1080 1130 1180 1230 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1008 1029 1119 1210 1231 0124 0223 0316 0406 0427 0525 5 10 5 6 10 5-23 -18-13 -8-3 % 0 10 20 30 40 % 2-300 -200-100 0 100 200 300 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 1 7-17.00-12.00-7.00-2.00 H A 180 50 100 40 100 300 A % 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 % 2
10/17 8 1996 A 9 A 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 9601 9607 9701 9707 9801 9807 9901 9907 0001 0007 0101 0107 0201 0207 0301 0307 0401 0407 0501 P/E P/E 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 0305 0308 0311 0402 0405 0408 0411 0502 0505 P/E P/E 6 A-B 7 A-H 20 40 60 80 100 120 0405 0406 0407 0408 0409 0410 0411 0412 0501 0502 0503 0504 A/B A/B 20 40 60 80 0405 0406 0407 0408 0409 0410 0411 0412 0501 0502 0503 0504 A/H BLOOMBERG 10 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2003 2004 2005 IPO
3.2 6 A 3.2.1 A B H 11/17
12/17 3.2.2 6 A 1997 1000 3.2.3 1783
A ---- B ---- C 1 C 3 4 5 A B C D 2 1080 D C 4 11 12 5 6 A 4.1. 1050 13/17
50 5% 4.2 5-7.92% -2.40% 5 9.41% 14/17
13 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 01-07 02-04 03-04 04-01 04-29 05-27 06-24 07-22 08-19 09-16 10-14 11-11 12-09 01-07 02-04 03-04 04-01 04-29 05-27 06-24 07-22 08-19 09-16 10-14 11-11 12-09 0529 1 2004 2005 2006 9.0% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 7.0% 600900-3.65% 7.78 0.36 0.47 0.57 4.5% 100795-0.28% 106.70 2.0% 100236-0.85% 103.00 1.0% 000027-16.67% 6.25 0.56 0.60 0.70 1.0% 000875 0.99% 3.07 0.12 0.20 0.28 0.5% 600519-15.91% 44.57 1.94 2.19 2.46 5.0% 000858-7.31% 7.10 0.31 0.37 0.42 3.0% 600535-15.00% 12.06 0.61 0.74 0.92 3.5% 600085-12.72% 20.85 0.79 0.88 1.01 2.0% 600529-13.88% 7.32 0.42 0.58 0.67 1.0% 600267-16.12% 8.22 0.51 0.64 0.74 0.5% 600521-10.05% 13.69 0.66 0.88 1.07 0.5% 600019-9.60% 4.80 0.76 0.79 0.73 4.0% 000898-5.41% 3.94 0.54 0.92 0.82 2.0% 600005 2.26% 3.37 0.45 0.71 0.61 1.0% 600018-11.24% 15.00 0.64 0.71 0.71 3.0% 000088-18.81% 10.06 0.62 0.75 0.95 1.5% 110317-2.65% 108.00 1.5% 000022-12.79% 28.30 1.05 1.40 1.60 1.0% 6.5% 600009-10.75% 14.98 0.69 0.85 0.98 6.0% 15/17
6.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 600004-5.70% 6.78 0.30 0.32 0.41 0.5% 110036-1.68% 103.19 4.5% 600036-8.60% 8.50 0.49 0.63 0.74 1.0% 600383-20.91% 4.07 0.63 0.79 1.02 1.5% 000002-21.19% 4.65 0.39 0.41 0.51 1.5% 126002 2-7.18% 104.47 1.5% 600426-23.87% 7.78 0.50 0.71 1.02 1.5 000731-21.37% 8.35 0.75 1.08 1.25 1.0% 600028-14.46% 3.55 0.39 0.46 0.50 0.5% 000726-14.07% 7.88 0.66 0.78 0.93 2.0% 600439-2.28% 10.26 0.65 0.84 1.05 1.0% 600033-11.70% 7.70 0.40 0.49 0.57 2.0% 600012-12.39% 6.79 0.24 0.35 0.42 1.0% 000069-19.78% 7.95 0.31 0.63 0.84 2.5% 600410-13.59% 13.16 0.87 0.91 1.24 2.5% 000933-9.06% 12.74 1.37 1.62 1.77 1.0% 600123-18.88% 10.14 0.76 1.06 1.23 1.0% 1.5% 600549-18.56% 9.17 0.46 0.75 0.89 1.5% 1.5% 000488-10.53% 6.11 0.64 0.98 0.93 1.5% 1.0% 600694-15.40% 11.54 0.56 0.65 0.71 1.0% 75.0% 25.0% -8.30% 0.38% -7.92% 0.15% -5.52% -9.27% -2.40% 9.41% 1 2 3 = + = 1+ 1+ 1+ n -1 = 50 80%+ 20% 16/17
= 1+ 1+ n -1 = - = - 17/17