2007 2006.12 1
1. 2. 3. 2
3 25.8 (1-3Q2006) 42 (1-3Q2006) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1-3Q2006-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% ( ) ( ) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1-3Q2006-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% ( ) ( ) :
4 8 25.8% 42.0% -70% -20% 30% 80% 130% 180% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1-3Q2006-21000 -14000-7000 0 7000 14000 21000 28000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006.1-9 / -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% ( ) ( ) ( ) :
: : 35 30 25 20 15 1312 11 18 15 12 23 20 17 26 22 19 31 32 25 25 21 20 35 26 22 10 5 2006PE 2007PE 2008PE 5
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0-16.5% -11.4% Nov.05&Nov.06 22.1% 37.4% 41.7% 43.1% 95.1% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% -20% S A 0% Nov.05(E) Nov.06(E) :Wind 6
7-30% 0% 30% 60% 90% 120% 150% Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 300-50% 50% 150% 250% 350% Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 A 300 :Wind
1. 2. 3. 8
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1~3Q06 17.2% 16.5% 14.3% 11.8% 5.0% : 9
12000 2300 / 34% 10000 8000 6000 2100 1900 32% 30% 4000 1700 2000 1500 28% 0 1300 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006E 26% 2005 2006E 2007E ( ) ( ) : 10
8.04 35% 31.6% 31% 33% 34% 34% 35% 35% 35% 30% 30% 28% 29% 25% 25% 24% 25% 20% 15% 10% 20% 15% 18% 18% 18% 15% 5% 10% 0% 5% A S S :Wind 11
12 MBO -50% 50% 150% 250% 350% 450% 550% 650% 750% Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 A 300 MBO -50% 50% 150% 250% 350% 450% 550% Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 300 :
ROE MBO 1959 5 13
14 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2500% 3000% 3500% 4000% 4500% Jul-80 Jul-82 Jul-84 Jul-86 Jul-88 Jul-90 Jul-92 Jul-94 Jul-96 Jul-98 Jul-00 Jul-02 Jul-04 Jul-06 500 1984 1996 2002 0% 5000% 10000% 15000% 20000% 25000% Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 1988 1998 2000 20004 :Bloomberg
2008 ( 28 ) (2/11) 2008 (0/11) 2008 (5/10) 2008 (5/10) 2008 (0/1) :www.beijing2008.com 15
1. 2. 3. 16
: 17
07 : 18
: 19
000858 07 1.2 600887 250 400 600195 ( ) ( 9 6 ) 20
A EPS PE 11.23 2005 2006E 2007E 2005 2006E 2007E 000895 S 514 202 31.17 0.72 0.90 1.08 43 35 29 600438 344 138 9.68 0.36 0.45 0.57 27 22 17 000911 263 126 9.22 0.13 0.75 0.75 69 12 12 600887 516 371 19.30 0.57 0.67 0.82 34 29 23 600597 1042 269 5.90 0.20 0.23 0.25 29 26 24 600519 944 302 63.46 1.19 1.53 1.90 54 42 33 000858 2711 893 14.75 0.29 0.48 0.63 51 30 23 600809 433 102 19.86 0.31 0.62 0.81 65 32 25 000568 841 333 18.40 0.05 0.42 0.60 335 44 31 600600 S 1308 200 12.39 0.23 0.32 0.36 53 38 35 000729 1100 482 7.96 0.25 0.31 0.35 32 26 23 000869 A 527 83 39.50 0.59 0.80 1.08 67 49 37 600059 233 138 10.52 0.11 0.20 0.36 94 53 29 600616 366 178 11.90 0.47 0.57 0.73 26 21 16 000848 190 109 10.34 0.23 0.22 0.32 46 48 33 600598 1634 482 5.00 0.30 0.32 0.33 16 16 15 600467 396 156 6.47 0.20 0.3 0.33 32 22 20 002041 176 56 8.47 0.49 0.11 0.17 17 77 51 600195 390 162 10.10 0.16 0.34 0.43 62 30 23 000061 388 263 11.10 0.04 0.04 0.32 310 257 35 : 21
63295888-434 449 yaozonghui @sw108.com zhaojinhou @sw108.com 22