600169 2008-7-29 : 24.97 2007.12.31 32.13 7.68 12 / 45.08 / 20.34 12 10.00% -10.00% -30.00% -50.00% 300 Wind 07A 08E 09E EV/EBITDA 24.2 16.2 11.9 07A 08E 09E PE 36.84 35.45 22.11 PB 3.96 3.37 2.79 ( ) 37,217 A /B ( ) 19,152/0 77.57% 3.25 30.00% 2007 11 2 00 7 12 2 008 1 2 008 2 2 008 3 2008 4 2008 5 2 008 6 2008 7 PE 25.61 20.00 16.94 PB 5.21 4.01 3.21 EV/EBITDA 23 12 8 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 4725 6446 8677 11105 ( ) 34.62% 36.42% 34.61% 27.98% 282 452 646 764 ( ) 348.15% 160.28% 142.92% 118.27% ( ) 0.76 1.21 1.74 2.05 23.27% 27.19% 27.99% 24.87% 0.42 1.11 1.38 1.64 2008 (8621) 63295590 liujing4@cjsc.com.cn (8621) 63217917 yangjf@cjsc.com.cn
...5... 5... 7...8...13... 13... 14...16...19...22... 22... 23... 23...24...24... 24... 25 2
1... 5 2... 5 3... 6 4... 7 5 2006.6 6... 7 7... 8 8... 9 9 4 m³... 9 11... 9 12... 11 13... 11 14... 12 15... 12 16... 12 17... 13 18.13 19... 13 20..13 21... 15 22... 17 23... 17 24... 18 25... 19 26 2006... 19 27... 19 28... 20 29... 20 30... 21 31 2005... 21 32 NGC... 22 33... 22 34... 23 35... 23 1 1990-2030... 6 2... 8 3 2006 12 31... 10 4... 10 5... 13 6... 14 3
7... 16 8... 16 9... 17 10... 18 11... 24 12 A... 26 13... 26 4
1 - - - - - - 2 5
- 2010 1.9 2020 3-2010 550 2020 3000-2010 500 2020 3000-2010 30 2020 180 2010 1.5 2020 3-2010 400-2020 1200 10 1 1990-2030 1990 2005 2015 2030 CAGR(2005-2015) CAGR(2005-2030) 534 1094 1869 2399 5.50% 3.20% 116 327 543 808 5.20% 3.70% 13 42 109 199 10.00% 6.40% 0 14 32 67 8.80% 6.50% 11 34 62 86 6.10% 3.80% 200 227 225 227 0.1% 0.00% - 3 12 33 14.40% 9.90% 874 1742 2851 3819 5.10% 3.20% 673 1515 2626 3592 5.70% 3.50% IEA 3 6
50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 1980 2000 2005 2015 2030 IEA 20% 4 5 2006 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 84.00% 6 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 7
2 2006 2 2006 2007 (2006 ) 2007 12 2008 1 7 8
8 100000 80000 60000 14.09% 19.83% 18.22% 18.99% 16.32% 25% 20% 15% 40000 10% 20000 5% 0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 4m³ 6-16m³ 16-35m³ 4m³ 10m³ 10m³ 9 4 m³ 10 10 m³ 11 9
200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 150% WK-10B 3 2006 12 31 Экг 8ус 2 7186626 4441335 2745291 0.38 WK-10B 12 81876520 27866457 54010063 0.66 SW270-2 1 260440 252627 7813 0.03 SW220LC-3 3 1968171 892954 1075217 0.55 EC460BLC 3 7445000 718956 6726044 0.90 EC210BLC 2 2030000 427518 1602482 0.79 EW200B 2 3500000 226800 3273200 0.94 2006 12 31 12 WK-10B 0.66 1/3 2003 10m ³ 4 10-40 9.7%-2.43% 7-14 13.86%-6.93% 6-12 16.17%-8.08% 4-28 24.25%-3.46% 2004 10
12 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 44.7% 21.6% 12.5% 36.9% 5.8% 11.9% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% WIND 10m³ 2004 2003 2003 2007 3.85 2007 7.71 2007 30% ( ) 13 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1 5 5 10 10 20 20 50 50 100 100 11
EIA 14 15 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 1950 1958 1968 1978 1988 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 EIA 2006 12 31 12 10m³ 2000 10m³ 60 20m³ 20m³ 30 15 20m³ 40% 20m³ 2 3 1.2 1.5 16 38m³ 195 55.8m³ 345 1 109m³ 107 7413 12
20m³ 2008 30% 35% / 2001 30% 17 18 160000 120000 80000 40000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% ( ) 20% 19 48% 11% 6% 19% 2% 14% 7300 1300 2010 1.9 1.2 5000 2000 31 5 13
2020 3 2.25 7500 2005 0.7 2010 1.2 2020 2.25 15% 6.7% 6 2000 2005 % 7935 10000 11000 6.7 34 120 126 30 15 25 11 1.9 5.3 7 30 170 200 3 2020 125 70% 80% 85% 200 85% 14
20 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 1-5 2004 1-5 2005 1-5 2006 1-5 2007 1-5 2008 1-5 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% WIND 11 13 2006 2005 2007 2008 21 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2010 5500 2010, 3000 10 50% 2 3 15
7 2008 5000 t 2012 7500 t, 300 t 2020 1 t/ a 3 7% 8% 2050 1.5 8 OCL 0.25 2042.1 AML 0.275 2086.7 Maheswari 0.25 2100.0 Monnet 0.25 2810.9 Aryan ( P) 0.30 2931.4 Action ( P) 0.25 2700.0 Agrim 0.357 5017.3 SteeMetaliks 0.25 1904.4 MAL 0.27 3352.5 MSPMetalike 0.26 2605.9 SCAW 0.25 SMC 0.25 3.21 16