261225 0

. 1

. () 2

100 LP 100 100 100 1 40 3 22 23 35 87% 2 83 7 30% 1 2% 0 1% 2 7% 2 4% 2 9% 2 7% 3 7% 0 10 11 51% 19 81% 0 1% 2 9% LP 100% 45 5 11 11 23 100% 43 14 34% 2 5% 2 5% 9 22% 7 17% 100% 20 4 22% 1 5% 5 28% 0 1% 9 44% 100% 23 22 95% 0 2% 0 0% 0 2% 100% 14 3 18% 1 10% 3 21% 7 51% 2011 2011 20132011100 3 LP

. 1 1 2 a ( a a ) b ( b b ) c ( c c ) A ( A A ) B ( B B ) C ( C C ) 3 1 2 ex. a 3 ) A B ) A B C 1 3 D ( D, D ) 4

. 1 (, ) B C (1 ), =, =, +,,, = +,, + +,,, (1 ) = = +, A 0% 100% 0% 100% 5

. Primary Energy Mix 100% Primary Energy Mix 80% 60% 40% Other Renewable Nuclear Natural gas EU 20% 0% Japan United States EU United Germany France Canada Italy Korea China India Viet Nam Russian Finland Denmark Sweden Poland Czech Kingdom Federation Republic Oil Coal Primary Energy Mix 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Japan United States EU Energy supplier composition and Security Index United Germany France Canada Italy Korea China India Viet Nam Russian Finland Denmark Sweden Poland Czech Kingdom Federation Republic 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 Security Index Self-sufficiency Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) Central & South Asia North America Middle East Latin America & Caribbean Europe East Asia & Pacific Security Index International Trade Center (UNCTAD/WTO), EC, Eurostat, IEA Energy Balances of OECD Countries / Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, IEA Natural Gas Information, IEA Coal Information 6

. 0.06 Security Index 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 Japan United States EU United Kingdom Germany France Canada Italy Korea China India Viet Nam Russian Federation Basic +Regional Correlation +Conflict frequency +Sea lane risk +All Finland Denmark Sweden Poland Czech Republic 7

. 8

DOE EIA International Energy Statistics 1994120147 2011120147 2006112 b a 6 2011/01 = a / b 2011/01 East Asia & Pacific 0.936 0.055 0.929 0.053 0.931 0.048 Europe 0.933 0.061 0.940 0.050 0.917 0.064 Latin America & Caribbean 0.954 0.057 0.971 0.022 0.954 0.034 Middle East 0.949 0.052 0.967 0.030 0.960 0.032 North America 0.955 0.031 0.940 0.040 0.951 0.029 Central & South Asia 0.968 0.027 0.981 0.014 0.970 0.022 Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) 0.938 0.079 0.896 0.087 0.952 0.036 10

1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 East Asia & Pacific Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East North America Central & South Asia Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) 19942014 2006 20112014 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 East Asia & Pacific Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East North America Central & South Asia Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) 19942014 2006 20112014 11

Europe Central & South Asia North America Middle East Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) East Asia & Pacific Latin America & Caribbean 12

20062014 East Asia & Pacific Europe Latin America & Caribbean Middle East North America Central & South Asia Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) East Asia & Pacific 0.062-0.052 0.137 0.304 0.053 0.157 Europe 0.062-0.132-0.240 0.296 0.266-0.055 Latin America & Caribbean -0.052-0.132 0.415-0.331-0.119-0.463 Middle East 0.137-0.240 0.415-0.090 0.010-0.176 North America 0.304 0.296-0.331-0.090 0.077 0.207 Central & South Asia 0.053 0.266-0.119 0.010 0.077-0.185 Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) 0.157-0.055-0.463-0.176 0.207-0.185 Middle East Latin America & CaribbeanOPEC AfricaLatin America & CaribbeanNorth AmericaLatin America & Caribbean 13

0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 2006.1~.12 2011.1~2014.7 1994.1~2014.7 0 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 (C) C=0 1 0log10(C)0.5 1.5 0.5<log10(C)1.0 2 1.0<log10(C)1.5 2.5 1.5<log10(C) 3 14

Index of Conflict Frequency Logarithmic scale display 19702013 Index of Conflict Frequency 19702013 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 10 Country Number 20 30 40 50 60 70 Country Number 80 90 100 110 120 Australia, Brazil, Canada, Qatar, UAE, United States Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela Argentina, Kuwait, Libya, Niger, Oman Algeria, Azerbaijan, China, Morocco, Russian Federation Angora, Colombia, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, Turkey 15

16

2006-2011-2014 1994-2014 Mandeb(MD) Suez (Su) Hormuz(Ho) Malacca(Ma) Panama(Pa) Japan TO &Kore China Vietna US & Canad FROM m a a Russia India EU East Asia & Pacific Newcastle X X X X X X X Europe Rotterdam Ma Ma Ma X X X X Latin America & Caribbean Puerto Bolivar Ma Ma Ma X X X X Middle East Basrah Ho,Ma Ho,Ma Ho,Ma Ho,MD, Su X Ho North America Baltm/Vanc r X X X X X Ma X Central & South Asia X X X X X X X Africa (North & Sub Saharan Africa) Ho,MD, Su Lagos Ma Ma Ma X X X X 0.1 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 0.89 0.9 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1 1 1 1.5 2 2 3 2.5 17