2014 6 207 POPULATION & ECONOMICS No. 6 2014 Tot. No. 207 100872 Logistic C913. 6 A 1000-4149 2014 06-0022 - 13 DOI 10. 3969 /j. issn. 1000-4149. 2014. 06. 003 A Study on the Factors Associated with Preferences for Institutional Care of the Elderly in Urban China Evidences from Xicheng District of Beijing ZHANG Wenjuan WEI Meng Institution of Gerontology Renmin University of China Beijing 100872 China Abstract Employing the data from The survey on demands of the elderly for ageing support services in Xicheng District of Beijing this study adopted the Anderson Model as the analytical framework. We introduced community variables into the model and explored the intention to institutional care and predict factors of elderly with and without ADL disability respectively. The Logistic Regression Model has been used for analysis the tendency and enabling factors as well as demand and community variables have been put into the model. The regression results indicated that 2014-04 - 09 2014-06 - 25 09YJC840051 10CRK013 22
those four kinds of factors are significantly associated with the intention to institutional care of the elderly without ADL disability. However for the elderly with ADL disability their intentions are highly related to tendency and enabling factors as well as demands for services. Based on the results from the analysis recommendations and suggestions for families communities and government have been put forward to improve the social aging services support system. Keywords elderly with ADL disability elderly without ADL disability institutional care intention Anderson Model community factors 2011 1 2 3 4 9064 1 9073 2 5 1. 1 2 9064 2008 12 24 2020 90% 6% 4% 9073 2009 3 12 2010 60 3% 65% 30% 5% 23
2014 6 Andersen 1 2 3 6 2. 7 8 ~ 10 11 12 13 ~ 15 16 ~ 18 19 20 21 22 ~ 23 24 ~ 27 28 24
29 ~ 32 33 34 ~ 36 1. Logistic 2. 2013 32. 2 23. 4% 2013 25
2014 6 9 43 60 2031 200 3. 1 1963 Katz ADL 0-1 0 = 1 = 2 1 2 3 1. 60 10% 3 /4 50% 1 7. 7% 26. 8% 11. 1% 42. 1% 1 % 60 ~ 69 70 ~ 79 80 + 7. 7 22. 2 70. 1 50. 0 50. 0 7. 7 26. 8 38. 1 14. 9 12. 4 44. 6 37. 0 18. 4 74. 9 25. 1 11. 1 42. 1 15. 5 28. 3 3. 1 2013 7% 3% 1000 11. 4% 2. 6% 26
118 239 800 17% 480 70 30 / 480 16 4476 3709 5326 3239 2 2 / 2773 1432 239 0 4476 796 226 480 122 3709 2893 2253 118 75 5326 798 331 66 168 3239 2013 1 2 2. 3 27. 53% 10. 50% 9064 10% 4% 3 27
2014 6 3 % 27. 53 10. 50 33. 21 27. 27 25. 68 14. 89 16. 11 8. 49 24. 55 7. 02 29. 25 15. 12 12. 06 6. 12 23. 77 9. 09 28. 87 5. 17 31. 06 20. 00 29. 03 28. 21 21. 77 6. 25 29. 04 13. 16 23. 14 8. 87 31. 94 25. 00 32. 99 10. 00 22. 76 6. 47 37. 84 20. 00 27. 07 12. 50 27. 71 9. 17 23. 90 30. 78 10. 38 11. 76 24. 48 10. 11 31. 42 16. 67 1 ~ 2 30. 20 33. 33 3 ~ 4 39. 06 0. 00 24. 53 0. 00 19. 08 8. 51 29. 49 11. 11 33. 33 14. 29 27. 32 9. 95 26. 10 13. 89 30. 55 1. 79 22. 92 8. 89 29. 00 11. 82 26. 82 10. 43 27. 91 10. 59 26. 78 11. 81 28. 53 7. 14 2013 1. 2. 3. 4. 28
3 Logistic Logistic 1. 4 1 51. 9% 71. 2% 3 ~ 4 1. 68 1. 89 63. 1% 29
2014 6 4 Logistic 1-2 - Exp B Exp B 0. 819 0. 314 0. 519 * 0. 258 2. 407 ** 2. 849 2. 236 * 0. 123 2. 562 ** 1. 198 1. 090 6. 451 * 0. 982 0. 089 0. 889 0. 062 ** 0. 712 * 0. 258 + 1. 479 0. 687 0. 919 0. 167 * 1. 025 0. 808 1. 215 2. 098 1. 137 0. 200 1 ~ 2 0. 969 0. 498 3 ~ 4 1. 682 + 0. 773 1. 899 *** 2. 212 0. 631 + 0. 226 1. 223 0. 044 + 1. 246 1. 699 0. 804 1. 519 0. 996 0. 490 1814 159-2LL 2026 74 2013 *** p < 0. 001 ** p < 0. 01 * p < 0. 05 + p < 0. 1 2. 2 6. 45 25. 8% 6. 2% 30
16. 7% 4. 4% 3. 37 38 31
2014 6 32
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