T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo 2 T_ReportAbstract 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 8,437.9 14,324.2 20,770.1 31,155.2 42,059.5 Growth(%) 16.5% 69.8% 45.0% 50.0% 35.0% 67.6 141.2 252.6 444.7 654.5 Growth(%) 6.9% 108.7% 78.9% 76.1% 47.2% 9.6% 8.6% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 0.13 0.28 0.50 0.88 1.30 0.89 1.16 2.12 2.95 4.25 247.03 118.34 66.15 37.57 25.53 37.45 28.63 15.63 11.23 7.80 23.0% 31.0% 30.7% 35.5% 34.7% 1520.4% 285.9% 156.3% 78.7% 53.5% 39.02 23.55 26.71 17.02 12.22 0.03% 0.00% 0.11% 0.16% 0.00% T_RankInfo -B 39.00 18 32.33 2007-07-20 T_MarketInfo 16,294.32 8,086.55 504.00 250.13 9.60/43.80 % 21.15% 8,743 12 % 13.57 45.99 482.46 5.14 61.73 665.47 T_Analyst 021-68801202 T_RelatedReport 1
1....3 1.1....3 1.2....4 1.3....4 1.4....5 2. FD...5 2.1....5 2.1.1. 2000...5 2.1.2. 2000 2004...6 2.1.3. 2003 FD...6 2.1.4....6 2.1.5....7 2.2. : FD...7 2.2.1. FD...7 2.2.2. FD...7 2.2.3. FD...8 2.3. FD...8 2.4....9 3....9 3.1....9 3.2....10 3.3.... 11 3.4....12 3.4.1. VS...12 3.4.2. VS...12 3.4.3. VS...12 4....13 4.1....13 4.1.1....13 4.1.2....13 4.1.3....13 4.1.4. 3G...14 4.2....14 5....14 6....15 6.1....15 6.1.1. 18...15 6.1.2. 10 20...15 6.1.3....16 6.1.4....16 6.2....16 6.2.1....16 6.2.2....17 6.3....17 2
1. 1.1. GFK 2004 48 2005 40 29 33 6 10 1 04 2 05 GFK GFK 06 37.2 23.7 60.906 2006 GSM 1660 16.3 2006 37.2 23.7 16.3 06 78 4.9 57 06 40 11 10 3
2006 37 78 4.9% 42 57 3.6% 40 2.5% 1601 11.0% 1 12 2 32007 6 8 60 40 2002 DRP(Direct Retail Program) 12 1.2. 2006 1600 1.3. 2002 2003 FD 4
1.4., 2. FD FD FD FD 2.1. 2.1.1. 2000 2000 85% 2002 50 : 15% 5
2.1.2. 2000 2004 2000 TCL 1999 28 300 6000 TCL 2.1.3. 2003 FD 6 2004 (FD ) 3 2007 4 B2B Digital Suning FD 2004 4 2005 2006 FD 4 15.63 250 5000 2.1.4. 6
7-10 15 2.1.5. 1 2 3 2.2. : FD 2.2.1. FD FD Fullfillment Distribute FD FD FD FDFD FD FD FD FD 2.2.2. FD FD FD FD 7
FD FD FD 2.2.3. FD FD FD FD FD FD FD 4 5 FD 5000 8000-10000 FD 2.3. FD FD FD 6 2 2 2005 2006 9 12 2006 150 2005 06 10 2006 07 1200 2003 8
1 23 4 2.4. 2 FD 3G 30 10 45 5060 2025 10 3. 3.1. 0008292003 2007 3 2006 9
98 93 70 1996 1997 1999 2001 2002 CDMA MOTO 2003 2005 GSM 04 06 GSM 1999 2003 3.2. 10
1997 45 2003 9899 2003 3.3. 10 4 36 143 546 1000 6000 1700 4.5 2006 1200 5000 4 40 130 1 48 5 11
3.4. 3.4.1. VS 2006 1601 140 10 2025 2006 A1200 N95 I718 20-25 4 3.4.2. VS CR3 11 30 45 FD+ 2006 8.12 5 3.4.3. VS FD 12
4. 4.1. 4.1.1. 6 1 5 1695.3 49.6% 300% 485 TelefonicaO2Orange TCL Gartner 2006 2006 4.1.2. 2004-2006 2004 3000 3500 2007 30% 5 57 MTK IC 6 MTK MT6225 4.1.3. 13
4.1.4. 3G 2.5G MTK 3G 3G 4.2. FD FD FD IT 5. 7 FD 16 2006 43.6 IT 35 400 7000 05 120 ITIC FD FD 14
6. 6.1. 6.1.1. 18 2006 252010 18 4 35.3% 07 4 4.87 2006 2006 300-400 600-700 100 25-30 3G GMIpoll 2 75 6.1.2. 10 20 10 2010 20% 8.4 20 20-25 162010 30 1. 2005 10 N95 2. 3. 10 4 4 67 30 4. 15
5. 6.1.3. 1.6-2.0 2006 1.7 05 1999 2003 6.1.4. 182010 3100 18 558 520 4 38 56 07 45 78 6.2. 6.2.1. 1 16
1 1 2 6.2.2. 2006 1.69 1.2 6811 1.61 7.83 06 4.77 6.3. 39 Rf 4.00% Risk Premium 6.00% β 1.20 Rm 10.00% Ke 11.20% WACC 11.07% 7% PE 118 0708 PE 66 37 09 2010 25 20 07 PEG 1.3 18 39 17
T_FSAndVS 2007-07-20 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 8,437.9 14,324.2 20,770.1 31,155.2 42,059.5 7,589.5 13,047.4 18,890.4 28,335.7 38,232.1 9.6% 8.6% 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 41.5 45.3 83.1 124.6 168.2 EBITDA Margin 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 806.9 1,231.5 1,796.6 2,694.9 3,659.2 EBIT Margin 2.3% 2.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 37.6 76.4 110.8 166.2 224.4 NOPLAT Margin 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 531.8 768.9 1,038.5 1,495.4 1,976.8 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 97.1 189.0 265.9 389.4 504.7 59.9 67.0 83.5 99.2 112.0 78.41 140.62 181.69 184.62 176.76 155.7 283.0 519.6 877.0 1,290.0-24.31-59.05-129.38 141.15 43.28-18.1-16.1 - - - 2.97 3.98 3.76 3.86 3.89-0.4-0.1-2.0-1.5-1.5 25.88 46.44 51.50 47.54 43.23 137.2 266.7 517.6 875.5 1,288.5 7.81 8.74 7.93 8.00 7.66 40.5 68.8 139.7 218.9 322.1 2.61 3.60 3.21 3.19 3.28 67.6 141.2 252.6 444.7 654.5 900.14 160.22 73.74 33.47 21.41 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 1,053.2 1,414.5 1,968.8 2,290.4 2,672.1 ROE 23.0% 31.0% 30.7% 35.5% 34.7% 310.7 306.1 500.6 810.0 1,135.6 ROA 4.4% 5.5% 5.3% 6.5% 7.3% 223.3 266.9 456.9 732.1 1,009.4 ROIC 2106.5% 373.5% 214.1% 104.9% 71.4% 1,152.1 2,126.1 3,115.5 4,673.3 6,308.9 ROIC 1520.4% 285.9% 156.3% 78.7% 53.5% 148.5 199.8 290.8 498.5 715.0 110.1 93.6 135.0 202.5 273.4 16.5% 69.8% 45.0% 50.0% 35.0% 14.3 40.1 967.0 987.0 995.0 21.8% 52.6% 45.0% 50.0% 35.8% - - 58.0 59.0 60.0 EBITDA -1.2% 63.0% 80.6% 61.9% 43.6% 261.6 240.9 373.9 591.9 799.1 EBIT 0.4% 69.1% 80.6% 61.9% 43.6% 3,273.7 4,688.2 8,266.5 11,244.8 14,368.6 NOPLAT -0.1% 79.3% 72.2% 66.3% 43.6% 277.9 293.0 415.4 623.1 841.2 6.9% 108.7% 78.9% 76.1% 47.2% 292.5 704.6 1,020.1 1,524.5 1,949.8-228.5% 11.7% 397.0% 197.0% 82.1% 1,876.0 2,632.8 3,778.1 5,242.1 6,614.2 181.3 214.5 332.3 498.5 673.0 81.0% 82.4% 82.6% 81.6% 78.9% 20.5 15.3 1,285.3 1,291.9 1,283.5 594.7% 662.2% 638.9% 617.2% 530.5% 4.7 4.5 - - - 173.8% 191.7% 25.1% 25.2% 25.6% 2,652.8 3,864.7 6,831.2 9,180.0 11,361.7 1.10 1.12 1.21 1.19 1.21 174.8 239.9 365.1 577.1 888.9 0.66 0.57 0.65 0.60 0.59 252.0 252.0 504.0 504.0 504.0 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 194.1 331.6 565.3 983.3 1,637.8 DPS 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.00 446.1 583.6 1,069.3 1,487.3 2,141.8 7.5% 0.0% 7.5% 6.0% 0.0% 3,273.7 4,688.2 8,265.6 11,244.4 14,392.4 0.03% 0.00% 0.11% 0.16% 0.00% 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F EBIT 197.5 333.9 603.0 976.2 1,402.0 EBITDA 204.8 333.9 603.0 976.2 1,402.0 EBIT 58.3 86.1 162.8 244.1 350.5 EBIT 197.5 333.9 603.0 976.2 1,402.0 NOPLAT 139.1 247.8 440.2 732.2 1,051.5 NOPLAT 142.5 255.6 440.2 732.2 1,051.5 7.4 - - - - 67.6 141.2 252.6 444.7 654.5 170.2 38.8 125.3 637.2 864.8 EPS 0.13 0.28 0.50 0.88 1.30 (23.7) 209.0 314.9 94.9 186.7 BVPS 0.89 1.16 2.12 2.95 4.25 (12.4) 16.5 (41.4) (67.5) (70.9) PE(X) 247.03 118.34 66.15 37.57 25.53 25.0 12.4 (208.0) (219.1) (208.2) PB(X) 37.45 28.63 15.63 11.23 7.80 12.7 28.9 (249.3) (286.6) (279.1) CAGR 87.3% 66.7% 49.5% (11.0) 237.9 65.6 (191.6) (92.3) PEG 2.83 1.77 1.34 (42.2) (49.7) (60.9) (74.4) (84.0) EV/EBITDA 39.02 23.55 26.71 17.02 12.22 50.2 17.9 1,404.9 214.3 209.7 EV/EBIT 40.47 23.55 26.71 17.02 12.22 61.9 137.6 485.6 418.1 654.5 EV/NOPLAT 56.08 30.77 36.59 22.69 16.29 (5.0) - (18.9) (26.7) - EV/IC 94.63 83.35 34.34 11.93 6.75 32.4 64.6 125.3 211.9 311.9 ROIC/WACC -19.59 27.33 42.13 14.10 6.82 115.9 355.1 2,651.1 643.2 1,092.1 REP -4.83 3.05 0.82 0.85 0.99 Wind.NET 18
T_AuthorInfo 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68801217 zhangqin@essences.com.cn 021-68801229 010-66578818-251 lixin@essences.com.cn 010-66578818-249 mazn@essences.com.cn 0755-82825385 panlin@essences.com.cn 0755-82825473 lijin@essences.com.cn 021-68801216 liangtao@essences.com.cn 528 2008 200120 021-68801200 28 100032 010-66578819 4018 35 518026 0755-82825555 19