%

GDP 80% Logistic Beckmann 2006 2007 2010 2000 2013 80% 90% 2015 23

2017. 2 50% 200424 1. 1 2 24

2. 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 25

2017. 2 2008 2012 2006 2015 1 1 1 2 1 2015 136840 136812 136826 141100 139456 136974 2020 139189 139150 139169 144200 142484 138779 2025 141167 141119 141143 146300 143930 139526 2030 142831 142778 142804 147400 144155 2035 144232 144117 144204 147500 143869 2040 145412 145354 145383 143103 2045 146405 146345 146375 141290 2050 147241 147181 147211 138279 2 2 2020 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 2040 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 2030 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 2050 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 1. 2005 2. 28 1. 90 1. 78 2007 2007 2006 17207. 84 1 2015 26

2009 2006 21724. 02 2008 2006 18353. 25 2011 2022 2011 2022 2011 1. 567 283 2013 2020 2050 3 3 2020 1. 3123 2040 0. 7463 2030 1. 0293 2050 0. 4633 2. 4 2015 4 % 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2045 2050 37. 7 40. 7 41. 9 45. 4 56. 8 58. 5 59. 1 3. 3 4 5 27

2017. 2 5 % 2020 1. 3123 40. 7 1. 85 2030 1. 0293 45. 4 1. 50 2040 0. 7463 56. 8 1. 17 2050 0. 4633 59. 1 0. 74 2 5 6 6 % 2020 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 1. 3123 40. 7 1. 85 12. 05 ~ 12. 55 2030 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 1. 0293 45. 4 1. 50 12. 80 ~ 13. 20 2040 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 0. 7463 56. 8 1. 17 13. 13 ~ 13. 33 2050 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 0. 4633 59. 1 0. 74 13. 06 ~ 13. 96 2011 13. 47 2. 5% ~ 9% 12 ~ 13 28

= / = = 29

2017. 2 = + = / + / 2014 1978 2013 1. 2014 3-5 1978 2013 GDP GDP 3-1 1978 GDP 1978 2013 1978 GDP 7 1 2. 2014 3-2 1978 2013 7 2 4 1978 GDP 1978 7 3 5 1978 2013 1978 3-5 1978 2013 1978 3-1 1978 30

1978 2013 1978 1978 GDP 3. 2014 4-3 1978 2013 7 6 7 7 1978 2013 GDP % % 1978 3645. 2 47. 9 1745. 2 23. 9 872. 6 1980 4228. 4 48. 2 2038. 1 21. 6 913. 3 1985 7031. 6 42. 9 3016. 6 28. 7 2018. 1 1990 10268. 5 41. 3 4240. 9 31. 5 3234. 6 1995 18309. 8 47. 2 8642. 2 32. 9 6023. 9 2000 27699. 9 45. 9 12714. 3 39. 0 10803. 0 2005 44121. 5 47. 4 20913. 6 40. 5 17869. 2 2010 75054. 7 46. 7 35050. 5 43. 2 32423. 6 2013 95088. 7 43. 9 41743. 9 46. 1 43835. 9 / / 1978 6945 4890 2513 1784 1980 7707 5532 2644 1651 1985 10384 8359 2905 2414 1990 13856 11979 3061 2700 1995 15656 16680 5520 3611 2000 16219 19823 7839 5450 2005 17766 23439 11772 7624 2010 21842 26332 16047 12313 2013 23170 29636 18016 14791 GDP 1978 4. 8 6 7 7 1978 2013 GDP 31

2017. 2 9. 77% 5. 79% 6. 23% 2014 GDP 7% GDP 8 2015 8 2020 2050 GDP % % / / 2020 152691. 7 40 61706. 7 50 76345. 9 26716 22580 2030 300367. 6 35 105128. 7 55 165202. 2 46905 41324 2040 590868. 6 30 177260. 6 60 354521. 1 82350 75626 2050 1162328. 0 30 348698. 4 60 697396. 8 144580 138402 % 2020 23097. 3 33811. 3 56908. 6 40. 7 80070. 4 2030 22413. 1 39977. 3 62390. 4 45. 4 90715. 6 2040 21525. 3 46878. 2 68403. 5 56. 8 107256. 7 2050 24118. 0 50389. 2. 74507. 2 59. 1 118541. 0 8 9 32

9 1 % 2020 80070. 4 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 55. 6 ~ 57. 6 2030 90715. 6 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 61. 7 ~ 63. 4 2040 107256. 7 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 74. 0 ~ 75. 0 2050 118541. 0 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 80. 6 ~ 85. 9 9 2014 37 85% 27 75% 17 63% 7 57% 9 1991 67% 1998 1999 70% 2010 80% 10 1 2 201425-26 80% 11 9 9 2020 4. 5 2030 3 ~ 4 2040 2. 5 2050 1 ~ 2 12 33

2017. 2 10 % / 1991 40. 30 26. 94 66. 84 1992 41. 50 27. 46 66. 17 1993 43. 60 27. 99 64. 20 1994 45. 70 28. 51 62. 39 1995 47. 80 29. 04 60. 75 1996 49. 50 30. 84 61. 58 1997 50. 10 31. 91 63. 69 1998 50. 20 33. 35 66. 43 1999 49. 90 34. 78 69. 70 2000 50. 00 36. 22 72. 44 2001 50. 00 37. 66 75. 32 2002 50. 00 39. 09 78. 18 2003 50. 90 40. 53 79. 63 2004 53. 10 41. 76 78. 64 2005 55. 20 42. 99 77. 88 2006 57. 40 43. 90 76. 48 2007 59. 20 44. 94 75. 91 2008 60. 40 45. 68 75. 63 2009 61. 90 46. 59 75. 27 11 2 % 2020 80070. 4 64056. 3 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 43. 6 ~ 46. 1 2030 90715. 6 72572. 5 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 49. 4 ~ 50. 7 2040 107256. 7 85805. 4 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 59. 2 ~ 60. 0 2050 118541. 0 94832. 8 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 64. 5 ~ 68. 7 12 2020 8. 00 1. 85 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 4. 05 ~ 4. 55 2030 9. 07 1. 50 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 3. 73 ~ 4. 13 2040 10. 73 1. 17 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 2. 40 ~ 2. 60 2050 11. 85 0. 74 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 1. 21 ~ 2. 11 34

2020 2. 9 ~ 3. 2 2030 2. 6 ~ 2. 8 2040 1. 5 ~ 1. 7 2050 0. 76 ~ 1. 3 1. GDP GDP 13 14 2014 GDP 8% 6% 13 14 2014 GDP 8% 2020 3. 5 ~ 4 2030 2. 2 ~ 2. 6 2040 GDP 6% 2050 60% 2020 2050 5 2020 4. 5 ~ 5 35

2017. 2 2030 5 ~ 5. 5 2040 4. 8 ~ 5 2050 4. 68 ~ 5. 58 2003 2020 2030 GDP 5. 4% 2030 2040 4. 5% 2040 2050 3. 4% 6 2014 2050 GDP 6% 2050 2020 2050 15 13 2020 2050 3 GDP % % / / 2020 162965. 3 40 65186. 1 50 81482. 7 26716 22580 2030 351829. 9 35 123140. 5 55 193506. 4 46905 41324 2040 759574. 4 30 227872. 3 60 455744. 6 82350 75626 2050 1639864. 1 30 491959. 2 60 983918. 5 144580 138402 % % 2020 24399. 6 36086. 2 60485. 8 40. 7 85103. 5 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 59. 1 ~ 61. 2 2030 26253. 2 46826. 6 73079. 8 45. 4 106258. 0 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 72. 3 ~ 74. 3 2040 27671. 2 60263. 0 87934. 2 56. 8 137880. 8 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 95. 1 ~ 96. 4 2050 34026. 8 71091. 3 105118. 1 59. 1 167242. 9 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 113. 8 ~ 121. 2 14 2020 2050 4 GDP % % / / 2020 142978. 2 40 57191. 3 50 71489. 1 26716 22580 2030 256052. 3 35 89618. 3 55 140828. 7 46905 41324 2040 458550. 6 30 137565. 2 60 275130. 4 82350 75626 2050 821194. 3 30 246358. 3 60 492716. 6 144580 138402 % % 2020 21407. 1 31660. 4 53067. 5 40. 7 74666. 0 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 51. 9 ~ 53. 7 2030 19106. 3 34079. 2 53185. 5 45. 4 77331. 7 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 52. 6 ~ 54. 1 2040 16704. 9 36380. 4 53085. 3 56. 8 83237. 8 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 57. 4 ~ 58. 2 2050 17039. 6 35600. 4 52640. 0 59. 1 83750. 2 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 57. 0 ~ 60. 7 36

15 2020 2050 5 GDP % % / / 2020 152691. 7 40 61706. 7 50 76345. 9 26716 22580 2030 258357. 8 35 90425. 2 55 142096. 8 46905 41324 2040 401221. 8 30 120366. 5 60 240733. 1 82350 75626 2050 560518. 4 30 168155. 5 60 336311. 1 144580 138402 % % 2020 23097. 3 33811. 3 56908. 6 40. 7 80070. 4 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 55. 6 ~ 57. 6 2030 19278. 4 34386. 0 53664. 4 45. 4 78028. 1 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 53. 1 ~ 54. 6 2040 14616. 5 31832. 0 46448. 5 56. 8 72831. 2 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 50. 2 ~ 50. 9 2050 11630. 6 24299. 6 35930. 2 59. 1 57165. 0 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 38. 9 ~ 41. 4 2. 16 17 2014 16 7% 8% 1 /4 17 4% 4% 1 /3 16 2020 2050 6 GDP % % / / 2020 162965. 3 40 65186. 1 50 81482. 7 28930 25349 2030 351829. 9 35 123140. 5 55 193506. 4 56909 54727 2040 759574. 4 30 227872. 3 60 455744. 6 111949 118151 2050 1639864. 1 30 491959. 2 60 983918. 5 220221 255080 % % 2020 22532. 4 32144. 3 54676. 7 40. 7 76930. 1 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 53. 4 ~ 55. 3 2030 21638. 1 35358. 5 56996. 6 45. 4 82873. 1 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 56. 4 ~ 58. 0 2040 20355. 0 38573. 1 58928. 1 56. 8 92399. 2 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 63. 7 ~ 64. 6 2050 22339. 3 38572. 9 60912. 2 59. 1 96911. 3 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 65. 9 ~ 70. 2 37

2017. 2 17 2020 2050 7 GDP % % / / 2020 162965. 3 40 65186. 1 50 81482. 7 23708 19464 2030 351829. 9 35 123140. 5 55 193506. 4 35093 28811 2040 759574. 4 30 227872. 3 60 455744. 6 51947 42648 2050 1639864. 1 30 491959. 2 60 983918. 5 76894 63129 % % 2020 27495. 4 41863. 3 69358. 7 40. 7 97587. 7 13. 9 ~ 14. 4 67. 8 ~ 70. 2 2030 35089. 8 67164. 1 102253. 9 45. 4 148677. 2 14. 3 ~ 14. 7 101. 1 ~ 104. 0 2040 43866. 3 106861. 9 150728. 2 56. 8 236341. 8 14. 3 ~ 14. 5 2050 63978. 9 155858. 4 219837. 3 59. 1 349761. 1 13. 8 ~ 14. 7 16 17 2014 7% 8% 2050 70% 2014 4% 4% 1 /3 2020 70% 2030 100% 2030 3. 4. GDP GDP 13 2020 50% 38

2020 50% 5. 1 GDP 2 3 4 9 2014 GDP 7% 1978 2013 GDP 9 9 39

2017. 2 2007 10 2013 5 2006 2005 2050 4 2012 20 2006 1 2000 2 2013 8 13 http / /www. csmcity. com /news /info - 12078. html 2015 2014 2004 2010 3 2003 50 2 2007 12 2008 2008 2050 11 2008 6 2015 95% 3 23 http/ /citiccard. world. people. com. cn /n /2015 /0323 /c57506-26737107. html 2013 2013 2007 2020 4 2009 6 40

JOURNAL OF 2017 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT Quarterly 2 Vol. 4 May. 2017 PAPER Organized Precarious WorkA Case Study of the Garment Industry in Great-Shanghai Areas Liu Aiyu 1 AbstractPrecarious work is an important and longstanding issue in labor studies. The core characteristics of it are insecurity and instabilitywith the decrease in work tenure in an organization the increase in long-term unemploymentand a sense of insecurity and informal employment in practice. These phenomena are the main results of the ownership reform and enterprise restructuringprivatization of economic structuredemands-bond labor market and economic globalization in the past decades. This research is a case study of the garment industry in City S in the east of Zhejiang provincefocusing on the precarious employment phenomenon in the garment industry as a labor-intensive section. We find that the precarious employment presents an organized featurebecause of the emergence of Chao-gong organization among the garment workers. As a resultthe organized precarious employment is causing a stabilizing trend of precarious workwhich will bring big challenge to both the garment industry development and the workers' right protection. What Is the Highest Level of Urbanization in China in the FutureSimulation Based on Non-farm Labor Demand Xie Lizhong 23 AbstractExcluding the barriers from resources landwaterenergyetc. and any institutional or policy factors that block the migration of people to urban areasand under the condition that all people are capable to migrate to and willing to live in urban areasthe influential factors of the highest possible level of urbanization in China would be as followsthe growth rate of GDPthe growth rate of nonagricultural labor productivitythe growth rate of populationthe change of industrial structure and the support ratio of population. The simulation shows that the highest level of China's urbanization rate in the next few years may be about 80% by optimistic estimatebut in the case of harsh conditionsthe highest level of urbanization rate in China may be lower than this number. 242