2012 9 * 2004 200433 D80 A 1006-9550 2012 09-0131 - 24 * 131
1 Joseph S. Nye 2 3 4 1 Solomon W. Polachek Conflict and Trade The Journal of Conflict Resolution Vol. 24 No. 1 1980 pp. 55-78 Richard N. Rosecrance The Rise of the Trading State Commerce and Conquest in the Modern World New York Basic Books 1986 John R. Oneal and Bruce N. Russett The Kantian Peace The Pacific Benefits of Democracy Interdependence and International Organizations 1885-1992 World Politics Vol. 52 No. 1 1999 pp. 1-37 Erik Gartzke Quan Li and Charles Boehmer Investing in the Peace Economic Interdependence and International Conflict International Organization Vol. 55 No. 2 2001 pp. 391-438 Katherine Barbieri Economic Interdependence A Path to Peace or a Source of Interstate Conflict Journal of Peace Research Vol. 33 No. 1 1996 pp. 29-49 Barry Buzan Economic Structure and International Security The Limits of the Liberal Case International Organization Vol. 38 No. 4 1984 pp. 597-624 Norrin M. Ripsman and Jean - Marc F. Blanchard Commercial Liberalism under Fire Evidence from 1914 and 1936 Security Studies Vol. 6 No. 2 1996 /1997 pp. 4-50 Kenneth S. Waltz The Myth of National Interdependence in C. P. Kindleberger ed. The Multinational Corporation Cambridge MIT Press 1970 2 3 David A. Baldwin Power Analysis and World Politics New Trends versus Old Tendencies World Politics Vol. 31 No. 2 1979 p. 176. 4 Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye Power and Interdependence New York Harper Collins Publishers 1989 p. 11. 132 Joseph S. Pearson Longman 2007 p. 215. Nye Understanding International Conflicts An Introduction to Theory and History New York
2012 9 Robert O. Keohane 1 Mark J. C. Crescenzi 2 net cost 3 1 2 Mark J. C. Crescenzi Economic Exit Interdependence and Conflict The Journal of Politics Vol. 65 No. 3 2003 pp. 809-832. 3 2002 12 2010 4 131 133
R. Harrison Wagner 1 2 1. 1 R. Harrison Wagner Economic Interdependence Bargaining Power and Political Influence International Organization Vol. 42 No. 3 1988 pp. 461-483. 2 David A. Baldwin Economic Statecraft New Jersey Princeton University Press 1985 pp. 38-42 134
2012 9 1 2. 2 3 3. 4 1 2 2011 9 129 3 Richard N. Haass ed. Economic Sanctions and American Diplomacy New York Council on Foreign Relations Press 1998 p. 205. 4 Risa A. Brooks Sanctions and Regime Type What Works and When Security Studies Vol. 11 No. 4 2002 pp. 1-50. 135
1 2 1 Richard N. Haass ed. Economic Sanctions and American Diplomacy p. 203. 2 2000 1 136
2012 9 Paul Krugman 1 2 / 1 2 Paul Krugman What s New about the New Economic Geography Oxford Review of Economic Policy Vol. 14 No. 2 1998 pp. 7-17. 80 2009 3 137
1 2 political geography political cleavage 3 4 1 2 4 Stephen Whitefield Political Cleavages and Post - Communist Politics Annual Review of Political Science Vol. 5 2002 pp. 181-200 Seymour M. Lipset and Stein Rokkan Cleavage Structures Party Systems and Voter Alignments An Introduction in Seymour M. Lipset and Stein Rokkan 138 2007 4 54-60 J. 2005 Fiona McGillivray Privileging Industry The Comparative Politics of Trade and Industrial Policy Princeton Princeton University Press 2004 pp. 1-72 Peter Trubowitz Defining the National Interest Conflict and Change in American Foreign Policy Chicago University of Chicago Press 1998. 3 Kevin R. Cox Murray Low and Jennifer Robinson eds. The Sage Handbook of Political Geography London Sage Publications Ltd. 2008 pp. 21-58. eds. Party Systems and Voter Alignments New York The Free Press 1967
2012 9 1 20 80 90 2 core voter p. 3. 1 John A. Agnew Place and Politics in Modern Italy Chicago The University of Chicago Press 2002 2 Nicole Mellow and Peter Trubowitz Red versus Blue American Electoral Geography and Congressional Bipartisanship 1898-2002 Political Geography Vol. 24 No. 6 2005 pp. 659-677 Charles E. Cook The Equilibrium Election The Washington Quarterly Vol. 25 No. 2 2002 pp. 251-256 2010 2 8-14 Maxim Ryabkov The North - South Cleavage and Political Support in Kyrgyzstan Central Asian Survey Vol. 27 No. 3 2008 pp. 301-316 139
1 2 3 swing voter 4 5 1 Ron Shachar Party Loyalty as Habit Formation Journal of Applied Econometrics Vol. 18 2003 pp. 251-269. 2 Kevin Denny and Orla Doyle Does Voting History Matter Analysing Persistence in Turnout American Journal of Political Science Vol. 53 No. 1 2009 pp. 17-35. 3 William G. Jacoby The American Voter in Jan Leighley ed. The Oxford Handbook of American Elections and Political Behavior Oxford Oxford University Press 2010 pp. 375-396 Michael Lewis - Beck William Jacoby Helmut Norpoth and Herbert Weisberg The American Voter Revisited Ann Arbor The University of Michigan Press 2008 pp. 138-160 4 G. William G. 5 140 Mayer William G. Mayer The Swing Voter in American Politics Washington D. C. The Brookings Institution 2008 pp. 1-31 2004 3 1-16
2012 9 1 1 2007 4 54-60 141
A B C D A B 1 A B C > D C < D 142
2012 9 1 1 Peter Trubowitz Political Conflict and Foreign Policy in the United States A Geographical Interpretation in G. John Ikenberry ed. American Foreign Policy Theoretical Issues New York Harper Collins 1996 pp. 395-411 143
1 1. 2 2001-2009 21% 33% 2 2 2001-2009 2001 22. 42% 37. 02% 54. 36% 2002 17. 61% 37. 36% 60. 99% 2003 18. 53% 39. 00% 68. 79% 2004 18. 02% 40. 74% 74. 95% 2005 21. 86% 35. 54% 68. 45% 2006 22. 54% 30. 61% 54. 59% 2007 25. 72% 27. 75% 49. 50% 2008 23. 50% 22. 70% 38. 01% 2009 21. 40% 29. 13% 55. 96% 21. 29% 33. 32% 58. 40% 2000-2003 IMF Ukraine Statistical Appendix 2005 2004-2009 State Statistic Committee of Ukraine Ukraine s Foreign Trade in Goods Monthly Information Ukraine s Foreign Trade in Goods with EU Countries United Nations Statistics Division UNcomtrade 1 1991-2008 2009 24 144
2012 9 2. GDP 65% 1 50% 2 3. 90% 66% 90% 38% 36% 3 2002 23% 47% 4 1. 1 Hrant Bagratian and Emine Gtirgen Payments Arrears in the Gas and Electric Power Sectors of the Russian Federation and Ukraine IMF Working Paper http / /www. imf. org /external /pubs /ft /wp /wp97162. pdf. 2 IMF Ukraine Statistical Appendix February 2007 p. 40. 3 Nataliya Blyakha Russian Foreign Direct Investment in Ukraine Electronic Publications of Pan - European Institute No. 7 2009 p. 9. 4 2002 5 24 2002 2 15 145
1 2 2. 27 3 27 17 38% 1 Stephen Shulman Asymmetrical International Integration and Ukrainian National Disunity Political Geography Vol. 18 No. 8 1999 pp. 921-922. 2 Stephen Shulman Asymmetrical International Integration and Ukrainian National Disunity pp. 921-922. 3 27 24 2 1-146
2012 9 1 2005 59% 2-7 - 3 17 10 1 Paul Kubicek Regional Polarization in Ukraine Public Opinion Voting and Legislative Behavior Europr - asia Studies Vol. 52 No. 2 2000 p. 274. 2 1954 Janusz Bugajski Ethnic Relations and Regional Problems in Independent Ukraine in Sharon L. Wolchik and Volodymyr Zviglyanich eds. Ukraine The Search for a National Identity Lanham Rowman & Littlefield 2000 pp. 173-175 3 2009 73-88 104-108 147
1 2 2004 Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovich Viktor Yushchenko 3 2005 50 / 2006 230 4 1 Sarah Birch Interpreting the Regional Effect in Ukrainian Politics Europe - Asia Studies Vol. 52 No. 6 2000 pp. 1017-1041 2 3 4 Gazprom Naftogaz 148
2012 9 2006 1 2 1 2006 95 2006 2006 2007 130 2008 179. 5 / 2 2009 250 / 201 / 418 / 2009 20% 3 259 / NATO Membership Action Plan 2005 4 2006 4 2006 2006 12 4 2008 1 Yulia Timoshenko 1 208. Peter Rutland Russia as an Energy Superpower New Political Economy Vol. 13 No. 2 2008 p. 2 Simon Pirani Jonathan Stern and Katja Yafimava The Russo - Ukrainian Gas Dispute of January 2009 A Comprehensive Assessment Working Paper Oxford Institute for Energy Studies February 2009 p. 21. 3 2009 1 27 4 Jeffrey Simon Ukraine Needs to Decide Its Strategic Alignment Southeast European and Black Sea Studies Vol. 9 No. 3 2009 pp. 370-372. 149
2008 2 2008 9 2009 5 1 2005 12 2 2008 2004 12 10 17 17 63% 7 89% 10 76% 6. 2% 4. 2% 2004 10 3 4 1 2 2009 6 82 2005 11 29 3 Ralph S. Clem and Peter R. Craumer Shades of Orange The Electoral Geography of Ukraine s 2004 Presidential Elections Eurasian Geography and Economics Vol. 46 No. 5 2005 pp. 374-375. 4 Ivan Katchanovski Regional Political Divisions in Ukraine in 1991-2006 Nationalities Papers Vol. 34 No. 5 2006 p. 507. 150
2012 9 2010 10 10 17 90% 1 2004 2010 1 Central Election Commission of Ukraine http / /www. cvk. gov. ua /pls /vp2010 /WP313 PT001F01 = 701. 151
1 2 3 2010 2010 2004 2010 3 4 5 1 William Brustein Mapping Politics How Mode of Production Counts in Electoral Geography Political Geography Vol. 15 No. 2 1996 pp. 153-158 2 Anders Aslund How Ukraine Became a Market Economy and Democracy Washington D. C. Peterson Institute for International Economics 2009 p. 229. 3 2010 Ivan Katchanovski Regional Political Divisions in Ukraine in 1991-2006 Nationalities Papers Vol. 34 No. 5 2006 pp. 507-532 2004 2010 4 F. Stephen Larrabee Russia Ukraine and Central Europe The Return of Geopolitics Journal of International Affairs Vol. 63 No. 2 2010 p. 42. 5 152 2011 4 55
2012 9 1 3 / 2004 2010 2004 2010 81. 34% 74. 39% 17. 43% 18. 51% 18. 66% 25. 61% 82. 57% 81. 49% 2004 http / / www. cvk. gov. ua /pls /vp2004 /WP313 PT001F01 = 502 2010 http / / www. cvk. gov. ua /pls /vp2010 /WP313 PT001F01 = 701 1 153
2012-05 -10 2012-06 -18 154
World Economics and Politics No. 9 2012 contrast the U. S. economic pattern mainly relied on domestic market which had relatively less impact on Britain and facilitated a peaceful power transition between the U. S. and Britain. Based on a trans - historical and trans - regional comparison the author demonstrates that different economic development patterns have different international political consequences and peaceful development needs domestic foundation. Therefore expanding domestic market is critical for great powers to achieve peaceful economic development. Key Words economic development pattern of great powers international political consequence power transition Author Huang Qixuan Assistant Professor School of International and Public Affairs Shanghai Jiaotong University China. Economic Geography Political Bloc and the Power in Asymmetrical Economic Interdependence Song Guoyou Gao Qunbo 131 Abstract There s an interesting puzzle in the international relations that asymmetric economic interdependence doesn t bring effective power. The less dependent actor which is predominant in an interdependent dyad couldn t transform its economic influence into political influence by using economic means and thus fails to excise its power over the more dependent actor. Based on existing literature the author constructs a new explanatory model by utilizing economic geography and political bloc and argues that whether economic geography can match with the political bloc is crucial to the power from asymmetric economic interdependence. The case study of Russia taking advantage of its predominant position to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO bolsters core viewpoint presented by this article. Key Words economic geography political bloc asymmetrical interdependence power Authors Song Guoyou Associate Professor in Center for American Studies at Fudan University Gao Qunbo Master Candidate at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs at Fudan University. 160