10% 12%
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1...1...2...2...3...4 ----------------------------------------------------------------5...5...5...6...12 Discount Rate...14...16...16...18...21...21...28...35 ----------------------------------------------- 43...43...45...48 (Sensitivity Analysis)...48 (Scenario Analysis)...49 ----- 50...51...51...52...53...53...53...55...56...57
...63...63...64 -------------------------------------------------------------------- 71...71...72 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 74...74...75...75
1-1...4 2-1 IRR...9 2-2...20 3-1...44 3-2...45 4-1...51 4-2...52 4-3...53
2-1...12 2-2...22 2-3...23 2-4 2004...24 2-5...26 2-6...29 2-7...30 2-8...32 2-9...34 2-10...42 4-1...58 4-2...60 4-3...61 4-4...62 4-5...63 4-6...64 4-7 (1)...65 4-8 (2)...65 4-9...66 4-10...66 4-11 5%...67 4-12...67 4-13 5%...68 4-14...68 4-15...68 4-16...69 4-17...70
- 1 -
- 2 -
30-3 -
1-1 1-1 - 4 -
NPV IRR PBY 1 2 3-5 -
83 capital budgeting - 6 -
- 7-85 90 88 DCF NPV Net Present Value NPV NPV 0 NPV = + = + + + + + + + = n t t t n n k CF k CF k CF k CF CF NPV 0 2 2 1 0 ) (1 ) (1... ) (1 ) (1 CFt t t k n
NPV (A) + NPV (B) + NPV (C) IRR Internal Rate of Return IRR 0 IRR IRR YTM IRR k 0 IRR NPV CF1 CF2 + + (1 + IRR) (1 + IRR) CFn +... + (1 + IRR) = CF0 = 2 n 0 k * IRR CFt t t n A B A - 8 -
NPV A NPV B K* A K* B A 82 k* IRRA IRRB B A 2-1 IRR PBY Payback Years Method PBY T CF t = 0 t = 0 T - 9 -
CFt t AAR Average Accounting Return AAR AAR = 1 PI Profitability Index PI 2 Benefit-cost Ratio 1 1 PI 1 2-10 -
= NPV NPV PI 1 NPV 0 PI 1 NPV 0 DPB Discounted Payback Period DPB 0 T PV ( CF t ) = 0 t= 0 PV CF t t - 11 -
- 12-2-1 2-1 NPV NPV>0 IRR IRR>k PBY AAR ARR> PI PI>1 DPB 88 89
John Wiley &Sons, 1996 Free Cash Flows, FCF 1. EBIT (1-T)+ - - 2. 3 + (1-T)+ + + WACC Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (1-Taxes), EBIT (1-T) 1. FCF+ - 2. NOI+ 3. NOPLAT 4 WACC Net Operating income (1-Taxes), NOI (1-T) FCF+ - - (1-T) WACC Earning Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization, EBITDA FCF+EBIT T+ + WACC 0.75 0.25 25% 3 Free Cash Flows to Equity, FCFE - (1-T)- - - 4 NOPLAT Net Operating Profit after taxes - 13 -
= - + = - Discount Rate Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC WACC = R S * W + R * W *(1 T ) S D D RS capital asset pricing model, CAPM RD - 14 -
W Equity/Asset S WD Debt/Asset T R S capital asset pricing model, CAPM R S = R f + β *( RM R f ) R f RM β CAPM β β Bloomberg β Robert S. Hamada Miles & Ezzel Hamada Miles & Ezzel β U β L = D 1+ (1 T ) E β U β L = D 1+ E β β β β U β β β β L D D U L E 5 E T 5-15 -
6 2.3 7 8 9 10 6 7 8 9 10 12.1.1-16 -
11 ( ) 11 12.4-17 -
12.1 12 12.4 13 14 1. IC Card Business IC IC 2. Parking Lot Business 3. Shop & Kiosk Business 12 13 14 http://www.krtco.com.tw/supply/sup_2s.htm - 18 -
4. Souvenir Business 5. Telcommunication & Optical fiber e 6. Electronic Commerce 7. Logistics Business 8. Life Style 9. Marketing Business 10. Advertising Business ( ) - 19 -
21 2-2 15 15 http://www.krtco.com.tw/supply/sup_1s.htm - 20 -
1. 1993 16 2004 67 2 76 5 208 2-2 0 94 73.33 79.04 15 16 94 3 8-21 -
4.6 5.8 2-2 15 0 ( ) ( ) 94 1.09 10.09 5.91 4.18 73.33 79.04 1.215 95 0.97 9.99 6.06 3.93 73.46 79.17 1.215 96 0.95 9.88 6.21 3.67 73.71 79.25 1.215 97 0.95 9.79 6.36 3.43 74.20 79.56 1.215 98 0.91 9.68 6.42 3.26 75.09 80.72 1.215 99 0.91 9.54 6.49 3.05 75.87 81.75 1.215 100 0.88 9.35 6.55 2.80 76.22 82.64 1.215 101 0.87 9.14 6.53 2.61 76.54 83.04 1.215 102 0.58 8.96 6.53 2.44 76.84 83.41 1.215 103 0.65 8.79 6.55 2.23 77.11 83.74 1.215 104 0.75 8.62 6.60 2.02 77.35 84.04 1.215 105 0.50 8.47 6.67 1.80 77.57 84.30 1.215 106 0.43 8.31 6.76 1.55 77.75 84.53 1.215 107 0.31 8.15 6.89 1.26 77.92 84.73 1.215 108 0.31 7.98 7.03 0.95 78.05 84.90 1.215 2004 2. 2-3 92 17 1.2 1.5 2.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 92 22.7 51.3% 36.6% 12.1% 82 8.5 28.4 82 1 25-29 37.4 30-34 27.3 82 25-29 17-22 -
5.6 30-34 35-39 5.4 3.6 2-3 91 82 92 1.2 91 1.3 82 1.8 92 227,447-7.8-30.2 92 51.3 +1.1 +7.6 92 36.6-0.1 +0.8 92 12.1-1 -8.5 15-19 92 3.9-0.4-1 20-24 92 22.1-0.6-2.9 25-29 92 37.4 +0.1-5.6 30-34 92 27.3 +0.4 +5.4 35-39 92 8.3 +0.5 +3.6 40 92 1.2 +0.2 +0.7 92 28.4 +0.2 +1 2003 2.8 2002 2.8 1993 3.3 2003 1.5 2002 1.6 2003 0.9 2002 0.9 1993 1.2 2003 1.3 2002 1.3 1993 1.5 2003 1.3 2002 1.5 1993 1.6 2003 1.7 2002 1.8 1993 1.9 147-23 -
1993 WHO 18 65 7.1 94 3 8 9% 2004 2-4 2004 2-4 2004 64 65 7% 23.3 4% 3% 7% 2004 65 15 23.3 1993 28.2 2004 45 18 65 7-24 -
19% 135.7 20 6.785 10 7% 14% 19 45 2.5% 93 9% 140 29.8% 50 19 92.12-25 -
2-5 1981 14.5 2004 7.6 3.3 2-5 1981 14.5 1991 10.3 2004 7.6 2014 6.4 2026 3.3 2051 1.6 92 5-26 -
1989 1999 71% 49% 44 65 10 1 1992 65 61.3% 2002 51% 10 55 99 3 10 4 9 31 1946 1965 65 15 3,000-27 -
91 6 22 9 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 92 758 26,810 20 875 73.71 49 11,712 791 46.9 2-6 - 28 -
2-6 ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 90 10 406 331 (81.53%) 598 18,331 12,768 (69.65%) 50 11,499 7,500 (65.22%) 4 811 344 (42.42%) 17 487 239 (49.08 %) 91 15 712 616 (86.52%) 711 23,945 16,634 (69.47) 53 11,812 7,480 (63.33%) 4 791 364 (46.02%) 15 421 217 (51.54 %) 92 20 875 645 (73.71%) 758 26,810 19,208 (71.64) 49 11,712 7,563 (64.57) 4 791 371 (46.90%) 12 374 186 (49.73 %) 33.33 22.89-12.8 6.61 11.96 2.18-7.6-0.85 1.25 0 0 0.88-20 % -11. 2-1.81 1. 2-7 10 100-29 -
300 7,250 10,480 12,000 24,000 2-7 1 2 3 4 5 (1) (8 )3 (2) (8 )2 (3) (16 )3 (1) (8 )0.725 (2) (8 )0.525 (3) (16 )0.725 (1) 1.2 (2) 2~3 0.9-30 -
6 7 8 9 10 (1) 0.78 (2) 0.69 (1) 30 ~40 (2) 40 ~50 (1) 1.25 ~2.4 (2) 2.468 ~3.6 0~10 1.8 (1) 3.72 (2) 6.72 : (1) 0.93 (2) 1.68 (1) 3 ~4 (2) 8 (1) 0.9094 ~1.048 (2) 1.8232 2. 4-31 -
397 108 11,150 15,000 2-8 1 2 3 2.5 (1) (7.08 )0.75 (2) (8.97 )1 2 (3) (10.97 )1.16 10 (1) 7 1.3 (2) 8 1.5 (1) 10 (2) 20 (1) 1.68 (2) 2.54-32 -
4 (1) 4.8 (2) 8.4 (1) 1.115 (2) 2.03 3. 79 85 500 1100 100 80 3,687-33 -
2-9 2-9 1 2 3 BOT ( 2004/04/08) 7,000 20 500 ( 2004/08/20) ( 2004/08/20) 51 700 ( 2003/08/05) ( 2004/04/02) ( - ) ( / -2000 ) ( ) -33 ) ( ) ( / 4 ) - 34 -
1. 674 3,639 1 12 7~8 300 2. 60 100,000 13,000 15,000 3. 24-35 -
KTV 5 4. 300 7~8 150 135 80 1 1 5. 7~8-36 -
1. 1,110 4,607 79 2. 90,000 130,000 12,800 23,100 3. 24-37 -
1. 84 11 26 7 2,300 2. 60 150,000 300,000 28,000 33,000 40,000 47,000 3. 24 OK OK - 38 -
1. 85 10 17 2 15 24 30 260 10 2. 50 500 1,100 17,000 29,000 3. - 39 -
1. 34 14 22 3,687 6,000 7,000 2. 60 50 216,000 312,000 276,000 372,000 18,000 26,000 23,000 31,000 3. 4. 2000 74 85-40 -
5. 80 2-10 100 200 300 10 13~24 30 90,000 150,000 10,000 30,000-41 -
2-10 81.2 65 84.11.26 85.10.20 93.10 674 1,110 2,300 34 8 3,639 4,607 7 13.51 14.62 21.08 23.17 11 14 15 24 30 14 22 200 79 80 270 3687 300 79 80 5540 1.28 ~1.95 2.8 ~3.3 1.7 1.8 ~2.6 1.3 / ~1.5 / 1.72 4 ~4.7 2.3 ~3.1 ~2.31 2.9 9 15 10 / 10 ~13 30 21.6 ~31.2 500 ~1,100 27.6 ~37.2-42 -
(Output) (Input) 3-1 - 43 -
3-1 - 44 -
3-2 x = + = = 3-2 - 45 -
Financial projection 1 2 3 20 (Robustness) 20 2004-46 -
0 Michael E. Porter - 47 -
(Sensitivity Analysis) 21 NPV IRR 21 1997 2002 2000-48 -
IRR (Scenario Analysis) 1970 22 23 extrapolate stable 24 22 Robert P. Bood and Postma 1997 23 Global Business Network 24 1999 Robert P. Bood and Postma 1997-49 -
1993 2002 9.0% 109 14% 120 20% 40 22 10 8 93 5 13-50 -
6825 R24 4-1 R24 4-1 - 51 -
6825 300 15 25 150 15 105 45 25 60 90 500 200 1 2 4-2 - 52 -
55 60 60 80 4-3 4-3 - 53 -
1. 2. 3. 4. 25 5. 26 25 26 88 5 17-54 -
( ) ( ) ( ) - 55 -
- 56 -
6825 826 1240 300 15 25 150 15 105 45 25 60 90 7020 25-57 -
500 200 134 50 1. 826 8260 50000 413,000,000 2. 134 400 80000 66,080,000 3. 7240 5000 36,200,000 4. 27 5% 23,954,000 5. 28 5% 25,151,700 6. 5% 25,151,700 619,014,270 4-1 4-1 1~10 8,260 50,000 413,000,000 826 80,000 66,080,000 479,080,000 7,240 5,000 36,200,000 1 23,954,000 23,954,000 1 25,151,700 25,151,700 1 25,151,700 25,151,700 589,537,400 5% 1 29,476,870 29,476,870 619,014,270 27 28-58 -
ex. 2.5 2005 1. 50% 50% 6.475% 2. 120 5 3. 30 10-59 -
1. 4-2 15 25 150 15 105 25 60 50% 100% 4-2 105 105 18,000 22,680,000 15 45 90 23,000 12,420,000 60 60 26,000 18,720,000 25 90 180 31,000 33,480,000 435 87,300,000 16,724 2. 75% 80% 85% 85% 60 7% - 60 -
3. ( ) 134 40 44 50 4-3 10% 5 50 5% 90% 4-3 40 1 12 3,000 36,000 60% 44 2 12 2,000 48,000 70% 50 12 365 25 109,500 60% 50 2 12 500 12,000 70% 4. 1.8% WACC WACC β - 61 -
β 29 β r (CP) r M r M r f ri r f r M r f βi WACC β r f r M 1971/01~2005/04 1982/11~2005/04 1985/05~2005/04 TEJ 20 4-4 WACC f 4-4 β β β r f WACC 1971/1 0.6379 0.8592 0.7486 6.59% 10.02% 9.19% 1982/11 0.7154 0.8592 0.7873 5.747% 9.945% 9.13% 1985/5 0.7186 0.8617 0.7902 5.47% 9.29% 8.58% 29-62 -
4-5 4-5 NPV IRR DPB PI 28,404,506 9.58% 27.19 1.04 1.00 164,566,861 11.60% 18.46 1.25 5.79 47,944,021 9.90% 25.53 1.06 1.69 4-5 NPV $164,566,861 NPV $28,404,506 5.79 3.43-63 -
IRR IRR 11.6% 9.58% IRR 9.9% 30 8% 9.58% 8% 10% 12% 6.475% 4.475% 10.07% 4-6 6.475% 4-6 19,001,529 9.45% 27.90 1.03 0.67 28,404,506 9.58% 27.19 1.04 1.00 45,965,858 9.83% 25.87 1.07 1.62 62,985,667 10.07% 24.58 1.10 2.22 70,886,477 10.19% 23.99 1.11 2.50 30 BOT - 64 -
50% 40% 10.14% 4-7 4-7 (1) 14,083,467 9.40% 27.91 1.02 0.29 31,013,744 9.65% 26.72 1.04 0.65 47,944,021 9.90% 25.53 1.06 1.00 64,862,428 10.14% 24.34 1.09 1.35 81,715,373 10.38% 23.16 1.11 1.70 4-8 70% 60% 50% 4-8 (2) -13,271,854 9.01% 30.33 0.98-0.47 7,566,326 9.29% 28.76 1.01 0.27 28,404,506 9.58% 27.19 1.04 1.00 49,230,816 9.88% 25.62 1.08 1.73 69,991,664 10.17% 24.06 1.11 2.46-65 -
1. 50% 100% 65% 100% 10% 40% 100% $28,404,506 4-9 NPV IRR DPB PI 64,292,485 10.11% 24.49 1.10 1.00 200,454,841 12.22% 16.94 1.31 3.12 83,832,000 10.47% 23.01 1.11 1.30 4-10 NPV IRR DPB PI 11,102,000 9.34% 28.49 1.02 1.00 147,264,356 11.31% 19.20 1.23 13.26 30,641,515 9.63% 26.74 1.04 2.76-66 -
2. 14 22 15 25 5% 4-11 4-12 10% 5% 4-13 4-14 4-11 5% 5% 18,000 18,900 15 23,000 24,150 26,000 27,300 25 31,000 32,550 4-12 NPV IRR DPB PI 68,070,064 10.12% 24.45 1.10 1.00 204,232,420 12.14% 17.21 1.31 3.00 87,609,579 10.47% 23.04 1.11 1.29-67 -
4-13 5% 5% 18,000 17,100 15 23,000 24,850 26,000 24,700 25 31,000 29,450 4-14 NPV IRR DPB PI -13,293,979 9.01% 30.36 0.98 1.00 122,868,377 10.97% 20.05 1.19-9.24 6,245,536 9.28% 28.44 1.01-0.47 9.19% 31 8% 10.109% 8.271% 8% 4.48 1.66 3.62-1.24 4-15 4-15 NPV/ 9.19% 8.00% 8.271% 10.109% 28,404,506 127,275,025 102,904,089-35,237,763 1.00 4.48 3.62-1.24 164,566,861 272,936,509 246,306,646 94,280,137 1.00 1.66 1.50 0.57 47,944,021 143,025,609 119,606,661-13,390,673 1.00 2.98 2.49-0.28 31 BOT - 68 -
5% 60% 4-16 10% 4-16 NPV IRR DPB PI 104,939,744 10.65% 21.83 1.16 1.00 186,877,942 11.89% 16.90 1.29 1.78 89,874,643 10.49% 22.83 1.12 0.86-69 -
$45,222,161 $67,833,241 17 $71,067,136 IRR 12.45% 65% 100% 4-17 IRR 12.55% 4-17 NPV IRR DPB PI 78,171,653 12.55% 17.25 1.36 1.00 119,243,576 14.64% 13.32 1.55 1.53 84,065,540 13.03% 16.64 1.34 1.08-70 -
10% 12% - 71 -
93 5-72 -
- 73 -
1. 85 2. 3. 74 4. 5. 92 12 6. 7. 8. 9. 12. 13. 92 Fred L. Fry Charles R. Stoner Laurence G. Weinzimmer 14. 15. 16. 78 17. 77 18. 87 19. - 74 -
20. 21. 22. 91 23. 93 202 24. 25. 88 26. 27. 89 28. 29. 30. 31. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. http://www.moi.gov.tw 2. http://www.3722.cn 3. http://www.cepd.gov.tw 4. http://www.krtco.com.tw/ 5. http://fn.yam.com/ - 75 -