东吴证券研究所

证券研究报告 行业研究 食品饮料行业 食品饮料周报 + ( ) : 3.8% 1% 1.7% 17 : 1 1 14 217 4 16 S651592 mahb@dwzq.com.cn 21-6199762 1 688716 2 217413 17Q1 2 + 15%+18%+ 17Q1 + 217411 15%+35%+ 3 6872 2 + +3% 1 217411 2 4 6327 + 217411 3 4%1 5 259 16 2 +PPP +17 17 PE22X 22XPE 21741 6 89516 17 GDT185 2.4% 21746 7 664Q16 21645 3.52 / 8 633217 -.3% -.3%+.3% 217315 -.3% +1.% -4.8%

1.... 4 1.1.... 4 1.2.... 5 2.... 6 3.... 7 4.... 11 5.... 12 6.... 13 7.... 14 8.... 17

1 3 %... 4 2 3 %... 4 3 3 %... 4 4... 5 5... 6 6... 7 7... 7 8 /... 8 9... 8 1 /... 8 11... 8 12... 9 13... 9 14... 9 15... 9 16... 9 17... 9 18... 1 19... 1 2... 11 21... 11 22... 13 23216... 14 24216... 15 25217... 17

1. 1.1. 3.8% 1% 1.7% 1 3 % -1. -6-4 -2 2 4 6 Wind 2 3 % -1.1-8 -6-4 -2 2 4 6 8 1 Wind 3 3 % Wind

4 (%) (%) (%)2 (%) 2 2 2 14.1-15.7 72.9-2.5 4.5-12.8 72.2-2.2 4.4-11.1 22. -19. 3.8-1.7 18. -16.7 3.8-9.8 17.7-16.3 2.8-9.6 12.5-14.8 2.4-9.4 1.9-14.6 2.3-8.6 1.5-14.6 2.1-7.9 9.6-13.4 1.6-7.6 9.6-12.6 B 1.6-7.5 8.6-12.4 1.5-7.3 6.3-12.3 1.4-7.2 5.9-11.9 1.3-6.1 5.7-11.2 1.1-5.9 5.7-11.1 1. -5.7 5.6-1.2.7-5.7 5.6-1.2.5-5.4 B 5.4-1.2.5-5.1 5.2-1.1.4-5. 4.1-9.5 Wind 1.2. 17 17 : 1 1 14 2 17Q1 15%+ 18%+ 17Q1

15%+35%+ 2 1 2 3 4% 1 16 2 17 PE 22X 2. 5 EPS(/) PE 216E 217E 218E 216E 217E 218E

Wind 3. 3.52 / -.3% +.3% -.3% +1.% -4.8% 6 3.5 / 3.5 3.5 3.5 -.3% -.3%.3% 5.4 / 51.6 5.7 58.8-2.3% -.5% -14.2% 15.8 / 15.9 16.6 19.9 -.3% -4.5% -2.4% 1.11 1.21 11.1 1.71 -.8% -8.5% -5.4% * Wind 7 2.7 4.9 2.1 8.6% -23% 5.3 / 4.4 5.4-16.7% 3.2% 384.4 3241.2 295. -4.8% 47.2%

/ / / / / 1.1 1.1 1.2.6% -2.5% 81. 67. 26. 2.9% 211.5% 21.4 24.8 262.9-1.6% -23.4% 7.5 14.1 5.3-47.2% 39.4% 2.9 2.7 2.4 8.6% 21.% 4. 3.6 2.9 11.1% 4.5% 1.2 1.2 1.2 4.% 1.5% 11. 11.2 7.4-1.2% 48.4% 1.8 1.9 1.9-2.3% -2.7% 3.6 3.6 3.7 1.% -2.8%.4.4.4 % -3.4% * Wind 8 / 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 14 12 1 4 68 2 Wind Wind 1 / 11

2. 2.5 3. 3.5 4. 4.5 5. /.5.8 1.1 1.4 1.7 2. 2 4 6 8 1 / Wind Wind 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 3 6 9 12 15 18 / Wind..5 1. 1.5 2. 3 6 9 / Wind 14 15..5 1. 1.5 2. 2.5 3. 4 8 12 16 2.32.34.36.38.4.42.44 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4. 4.2 Wind Wind 16 17

1 8 6 4 2 / 38 34 3 26 22 18 Wind Wind 18 4 16 4 8 1 1 4g*1 13.9 11.6 13.9 11.6.% -8.3% smithfield 396 32.5 28.9 32.5 28.9.% -4.5% Q 12 12.5 11.5 12.5 2.1% 85g*5 6g*1 18.8 17.8 18.8 17.8.%.% 3g*3 49.9 53.9 49.9 53.9.%.% 1 19 4 16 4 8 1 1 25ml*12 64.9 55.3 56 57 6.4% 8.3% 54.9 56 25g*12 62.9 56-6.7% -6.7% 1 ( -6 9g) 231 231.%.% 24ml*12 59.9 25ml*12 57.8 67.8 61.2-8.8% -8.8% (2g*12) 59.9 59.4 59.9 56.1 2.8% -7.7% 65.9 55 65.9 55.% -3.2%

2g*12 95ml 18.4 2.9-12.% -12.8% 1 2 4 16 4 8 1 1 33ml*24 12 129 12 129.% -6.7% 5ml*12 18 99 11 15-3.7% -3.3% 33 ml*24 96 89 9 89 3.4% 3.9% 33ml*24 95.8 86 11.4% -.2% 33ml*24 129 128.8%.% 33ml*24 54 51 5.9% 1.2% 33ml*24 165 149 165 149.% 6.8% 33ml*24 198 198 198 198.% 6.2% 355ml*24 238 198 239 198 -.2% -12.3% 1 21 4 16 / 4 8 / / 1919 1919 4 16 4 8 4199 428 4199 428 4239.5 4239.5-1.1% 53 1299 1659 1339 1299 1659 1339 1432.3 1432.3 5.1% 52 899 85 829 899 85 829 859.3 859.3-1.9% 52 1573 899 899 899 899 729 899. 842.3 9.2% 52 219 28 189 219 198 189 25.3 22. 3.7% 52 469 469 469 469 469 469. 469. 1.1% 52 329 349 349 349 339. 349. 1.5% 53 3 398 455 399 455 426.5 427. 9.4% 53 2 285 345 285 345 315. 315. 9.4% 52 M3 499 459 499 559 479. 529..% 52 48 ml 333 333 333 318 333. 325.5 6.4% 5 5 134.9 138 134.9 138 136.5 136.5 3.4% 5 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 -.1% 36 95 94 151.8 95 94 151.8 113.6 113.6 1.7% 1919 4. 1 259 +PPP + 17

22XPE http://t.cn/rxvoq7u 2 + http://t.cn/rxvltao 3 6327 + + http://t.cn/rxvofch 4 6872 + +3% http://t.cn/rxvpfwg 5 639 + + http://t.cn/rxvamq6 5. 1 Q1 1.57 299%4 11 217 479 191% 1.57 299% 6 http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lynh8ugixifypgij7ormg 2 217 28 4 12 217 8 12 75-8 217 27528 12.4% 14.8% http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/9d5w8ap7m5cx7hqzw4wbdg 3 4 12 216 年中国葡萄酒消费量达 17.2 亿升, 比 215 年增长 6.9%, 增幅位居 全球之首 据统计, 去年全球葡萄酒消费量达 242 亿升, 比 215 年微增

.4%; 美国以 31.8 亿升的消费量位居世界第一 数据表明,216 年中国 葡萄酒生产量达 11.4 亿升 同期, 全球葡萄酒生产量达 267 亿升, 较前 一年下滑约 3.3% ( 新华社 ) http://www.ce.cn/cysc/sp/info/2174/12/t217412_219153.shtml 4 3 CPI 4 12 3 CPI CPI 1.4% 4 12 3 CPI.9%.1 CPI 1.4% http://114.8.154.46/ns/findsnap.php?ad=&sitetype=&sourcetype=&id=4 19191&t=1&device=pc&terminaltype=wft&version=14.5.1.527 6. 22 217417 12: 148 217418 9:3 217418 14: 217418 14:3 21742 14: 21742 15: 15 3 437 37 217421 9: 217421 16: 118 38 217421 14: 217421 1: 137 217421 14: 32 217421 14: 8 217421 13:3 258 3F 217425 13: 16 217425 14:3 29 2 217426 14: 1-1

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2329.SZ 716.SZ 3138.SZ 63345.SH 233.SZ 265.SZ 2582.SZ 284.SZ 27693 33231, 5%8% 15 2, 86.59%89.94% 9 11, 3.7%59.74% 15 16, 42.86%52.38% 113 2261, % 5% 14732 19152, % 3% 29 36, 996.9657%1213.4747% 83 95, 1.4% 26.36% 217-4-18 217-4-18 217-4-18 217-4-2 217-4-2 217-4-2 217-4-2 217-4-21 6381.SH 35%45% 217-4-21 752.SZ 2216.SZ 329 1152, 3% 8% 3141 4188, -1% 2% 217-4-21 217-4-21 6872.SH 4%55% 217-4-22 69.SH 219.SZ B 43 47, 3255.36%3567.49% 88 12, 349.617%44.366% 217-4-22 217-4-24 6573.SH 8%9% 217-4-24 19.SZ 2646.SZ A 63886.SH 2719.SZ 88 12, 349.617%44.366% 19636 2311, % 15% 12394 12394, 8.3%8.3% 57 7125, % 2% 217-4-24 217-4-25 217-4-25 217-4-26 63777.SH 217-4-26 2726.SZ 2661.SZ 2481.SZ 234.SZ 23167 26642, 1%13% 1818 15145, % 4% 4764 14293, 25% 75% 536519 5917, %1% 217-4-26 217-4-27 217-4-27 217-4-28

673.SH 5%1% 217-4-28 6779.SH 16%16% 217-4-28 6199.SH 7%9% 217-4-28 257.SZ 995.SZ *ST 6186.SH -8-75, 823.6561%871.8999% -16-15, 11259.88%123.88% 2 2, 13.9332%13.9332% Wind 217-4-28 217-4-28 217-4-29 25217 217 A *ST B - 32 ~ -27 2816.28421 ~5376.542565, - 45%~5% 34 ~4, 178.93%~228.15% ~3-2 ~2 555 ~645, 28%~258% - 4 ~1-4 ~1 3 ~35, 95.46%~128.3% 25857.7 ~3353.95, 15%~35% 9 ~95 3 3 5 95.46% 128.3% 5 55 514.17 575.58 2246.49 22496.1 8%-1% 32 -- 365 99.97% 128.9% - 12 ~ -8-11 ~ -9-12 ~ -8 12 2846.21 ~365.19, 5%~9% 16 ~19 516.41 ~7294.86, 5.%~5.% - 4 ~ -3 Wind 8.

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