T_ReportAbstract T_FSAndVSAbstract T_Graph T_ YieldInfo 600519 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 4,903.4 7,237.4 10,132.4 13,577.4 17,243.3 Growth(%) 24.8% 47.6% 40.0% 34.0% 27.0% 1,616.4 2,966.1 4,629.5 6,260.4 8,044.9 Growth(%) 38.1% 83.2% 60.9% 35.2% 28.5% (%) 84.0% 88.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% (%) 31.5% 39.1% 45.0% 45.4% 45.9% () 1.64 3.00 4.58 6.20 7.96 () 6.54 8.87 13.12 19.41 27.49 103.9 56.7 37.1 27.4 21.4 26.0 19.2 13.0 8.8 6.2 (%) 26.2% 35.4% 35.5% 32.5% 29.4% ROIC(%) 105.0% 148.7% 107.9% 111.9% 131.5% EV/EBITDA 61.4 34.1 26.4 19.1 14.3 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% T_RankInfo -A 248.00 12 182.94 2008-05-19 T_MarketInfo 172,658.77 74,626.89 943.80 407.93 94.13/230.55 % 32.97% 27,636 12 % (12.71) 9.98 82.78 7.57 (11.62) 87.00 T_Analyst T_RelatedReport 1
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1. 1.1. 1.1.1. 1.1.2. 1.1.3. 1.1.4. 3
1.2. 1.3. 1.3.1. 4
Wind 1.3.2. % % % %( 3 %( 3 600519.SH 3.00 8.72 87.96 40.98 39.60 140.46 247.24 000568.SZ 0.89 3.10 56.93 26.37 31.33 128.60 2,223.41 600809.SH 0.83 2.98 77.14 22.48 29.75 120.58 271.33 600735.SH 0.73 1.01 6.85 6.35 113.63 1,802.02 5,354.48 600779.SH 0.41 2.67 74.59 20.31 16.22 26.49 210.66 000858.SZ 0.39 2.52 53.91 20.10 16.47 16.37 77.50 600197.SH 0.24 2.04 41.55 16.97 12.15 92.35 28.29 000799.SZ 0.21 1.90 76.32 29.57 11.44-56.40 618.36 000596.SZ 0.14 3.60 32.32 2.82 4.09 99.65 112.82 600702.SH 0.12 5.11 41.27 4.59 2.42 12.01 199.56 600199.SH 0.10 2.11 19.05 3.36 4.88 87.67 114.19 000995.SZ -0.29 1.74 21.33-54.63-15.18 14.52-605.96 Wind 5
1.3.3. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Wind 6
1.3.4. 1 7
2. 2.1. Wind 8
2.2. 9
2.3. Wind 3. 3.1. Wind 2 10
3.2. 3.3. 3 11
3.4. 3.5. 4 12
25,757 1000 2001 2002 1000 28,664 1000 2001 2002 10,083 800 2001 2003 700 9,620 700 2001 2004 13,776 2100 2001 2006 2200 7,741 2200 2001 2006 1000 36,800 1000 2000 2007 2000 47,397 2000 2000 2007 2000 10,294 2000 2001 2006 2000 84,456 2000 2006 2007 6,408 2000 2008 3.6. wind 4. 4.1. 13
PEG=1.20 EPS CAGR PE 2008E 2009E 2010E 08-10 2008E 2009E 2010E PEG 000568 62.06 1.58 2.07 2.63 29% 39 30 24 1.03 600519 183.66 4.32 5.84 7.77 34% 43 31 24 0.92 000858 28.59 0.57 0.74 0.94 28% 50 39 30 1.38 600779 30.46 0.79 1.05 1.38 32% 39 29 22 0.91 Wind consensus 2008-5-5 4.2. 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2108 2361 2597 2857 3142 49.80 58.76 64.64 71.10 78.21 104,978 138,739 167,874 203,127 245,784 8239 9063 10150 11165 12282 68.60 85.75 102.90 118.34 130.17 565,186 777,131 1,044,465 1,321,248 1,598,710 3515 5624 7873.6 9842 12302.5 15.21 16.73 18.40 20.24 22.27 53,463 94,095 144,907 199,246 273,964 723,628 1,009,965 1,357,245 1,723,622 2,118,458 5. 14
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1953 1915 1963 1985 1979 1986 1984 1986 1989 1989 1989 1991 1990 1992 1992 1992 1992 1992 1993 1992 1994 1993 1994 1994 2000 1994 16
T_FSAndVS 2008-4-18 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 4,903.4 7,237.4 10,132.4 13,577.4 17,243.3 786.5 871.6 1,418.5 1,900.8 2,414.1 24.8% 47.6% 40.0% 34.0% 27.0% 574.9 604.1 911.9 1,222.0 1,551.9 29.6% 82.0% 36.4% 35.3% 28.5% 584.9 560.4 810.6 1,086.2 1,379.5 38.1% 83.2% 60.9% 35.2% 28.5% 496.0 723.2 1,013.2 1,357.7 1,724.3 EBITDA 30.5% 80.0% 33.2% 33.6% 26.7% -25.3-44.7-194.4-338.4-552.8 EBIT 30.5% 82.0% 33.4% 34.0% 27.0% 1.1-0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 NOPLAT 39.2% 83.6% 52.7% 34.0% 27.0% - - - - - 29.5% 110.4% 29.2% 8.1% 2.2% 1.8 1.8 - - - 19.5% 35.7% 55.8% 47.9% 41.6% 2,487.1 4,525.3 6,171.7 8,348.2 10,725.5 0.9-3.3 1.0-1.0 1.0 84.0% 88.0% 86.0% 86.0% 86.0% 2,488.1 4,522.0 6,172.7 8,347.2 10,726.5 50.7% 62.5% 60.9% 61.5% 62.2% 871.7 1,556.0 1,543.2 2,086.8 2,681.6 31.5% 39.1% 45.0% 45.4% 45.9% 1,616.4 2,966.1 4,629.5 6,260.4 8,044.9 EBITDA/ 51.9% 63.3% 60.3% 60.1% 59.9% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E EBIT/ 50.2% 61.9% 59.0% 59.0% 59.0% 4,474.2 4,722.7 8,734.7 14,826.5 23,025.9 - - - - - 81 76 70 59 48 125.0 132.5 208.2 279.0 354.3-43 7 60 70 63 185.7 101.0 141.6 189.7 240.9 469 349 357 439 525 3.1 6.8 21.0 40.0 64.2 5 3 2 3 3 1,980.9 2,304.8 3,689.9 4,944.4 6,279.4 141 107 107 115 117 0.0 3.6 16.8 34.0 52.3 647 499 468 519 586 - - - - - 128 152 169 148 122 42.8 58.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 ROE 26.2% 35.4% 35.5% 32.5% 29.4% - - - - - ROA 16.9% 28.3% 29.2% 26.9% 24.5% 1,222.9 1,827.0 2,141.2 2,282.2 2,315.9 ROIC 105.0% 148.7% 107.9% 111.9% 131.5% 989.0 994.5 597.3 359.0 216.0 256.9 249.3 249.4 249.5 249.6 11.9% 7.7% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 286.2 77.3 12.8 10.3 8.8 10.1% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 9,570.8 10,481.5 15,866.7 23,268.5 32,861.2-0.5% -0.6% -1.9% -2.5% -3.2% - - 300.0 300.0 300.0 / 21.5% 17.1% 16.1% 15.5% 14.8% 341.3 483.2 114.6 153.6 195.1 - - - - - 35.6% 20.2% 17.8% 17.1% 16.9% 3,061.7 1,629.4 2,411.1 3,523.6 5,042.9 55.2% 25.2% 21.7% 20.6% 20.3% - - - - - 1.99 3.44 4.53 5.11 5.42 - - - - - 1.41 2.35 3.23 3.86 4.29 3,402.9 2,112.6 2,825.7 3,977.2 5,538.0-97.26-100.14-30.75-23.67-18.40 104.4 134.8 201.8 292.5 409.1 943.8 943.8 993.8 993.8 993.8 DPS() 0.59 - - - - 5,119.6 7,290.3 11,845.3 18,004.9 25,920.3 36.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6,167.9 8,368.9 13,040.9 19,291.3 27,323.2 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 1,616.4 2,966.1 4,629.5 6,260.4 8,044.9 EPS() 1.64 3.00 4.58 6.20 7.96 97.0 178.1 131.0 148.2 159.4 BVPS() 6.54 8.87 13.12 19.41 27.49 1.1-0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 PE(X) 103.9 56.7 37.1 27.4 21.4 - - - - - PB(X) 26.0 19.2 13.0 8.8 6.2-32.3-4.9-2.0-194.4-338.4 P/FCF - 246.7 46.4 29.5 21.7-1.8-1.8 - - - P/S 32.7 22.2 16.7 12.4 9.8 71.6 135.2 74.5 100.8 129.5 EV/EBITDA 61.4 34.1 26.4 19.1 14.3 274.0-1,834.5-1,052.4-258.9 56.0 CAGR(%) 57.0% 39.5% 29.3% -100.0% -100.0% 2,112.9 1,743.3 3,589.0 5,913.0 7,837.9 PEG 1.8 1.4 1.3-0.3-0.2-778.5-789.5-24.1-32.1-32.1 ROIC/WACC 10.7 15.2 11.0 11.4 13.4-756.0-705.4 544.4 338.4 552.8 REP 7.4 2.5 2.7 2.3 1.9 Wind.NET 17
T_AuthorInfo Glasgow University 6 300 15% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300-5% 5% 6 300 5% 15% 6 300 15% A 300 B 300 T_Sales 021-68763879 zhangqin@essences.com.cn 021-68763872 ligr@essences.com.cn 010-66581689 lixin@essences.com.cn 010-66581668 mazn@essences.com.cn 0755-82558268 panlin@essences.com.cn 0755-82558084 lijin@essences.com.cn 0755-82558082 hesz2@essences.com.cn 0755-82558089 zhangqp@essences.com.cn : 518026 : 200122 : 100034 18