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,,,,,, (Jeffrey Record),,,,,,, ( Ivan A rregu n2toft), 1800 2003,71. 5%,,,1946 1948,1954 1962, 1982 1985,,, ( ), : ( ),, 1994, 228 Jeffrey Rocord, W hy the Strong Lose? Param eters, Vol. 35, W inter 2005 /06, pp. 16 31. HansMorgenthau, Politics Am ong N ations, 5 th ed. (New York: Knopf, 1978), chap ters 11 12. Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 3. 4
? (Andrew Mack), :,,, ;,,,,,:,,,, ( Steven Rosen), ( GilMerom ),, ( ) ;,,,,,,,, Andrew Mack, W hy B ig Nations Lose Small W ars: The Politics of A symmetric Conflict, W orld Politics, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1975, pp. 175 200. Ibid., p. 175. Ibid., pp. 195 200. Steven Rosen, W ar Power and the W illingness to Suffer, in John Vasquez and Marie Henehan ed., The Scientific S tudy of Peace and W ar, 1999, chap ter 11. Gil Merom, How Dem ocracies Lose Sm allw ars: S tate, Society, and the Failures of France in A lgeria, Israel in Lebanon, and the United S tates in V ietnam (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003). 5
,,,,,,,,,, ( ) ;, (, ), ( ), ( ),,,, ( Ivan A rregu n2toft) 2001 2005,, 1800 2003, : ( ), ; ( ),, M ichael C. Desch, Democracy and V ictory: W hy Regime Type Hardly Matters, International Security, Vol. 27, No. 2, 2002, pp. 5 47 Ivan A rregu n2toft, How the W eak W in W ars: A Theory of A symmetric Conflict, International Security, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2001; Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005). 6
?,,,,, ;,,,, :,,,,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,?,?, Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), pp. 23 48. Ibid., p. 34. Ibid., p. 35. Ivan A rregu n2toft, The Futility of Barbarism: A ssessing the Impact of the Systematic Harm of Non2combatants in W ar, 2003, http: / /www. ksg. harvard. edu /wappp / research /working/ ivan_toft. pdf J. Bowyer Bell, The M yth of the Guerrilla: Revolutionary Theory and M alpractice ( Hardcover: Knopf, 1971) ; : ( ), 1975 7
,,,,,,, : (),?, :,,,,,,,, ( ),,,,,:,,;,, ( ),,,, Ivan A rregu n2toft, How the W eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict, p. 36,, 1948 1957 : ( ),, 2001, 499 501 :,, 2005, 57 8
?,,,?,,, : 1945 2007, ; ( 2003 2007), 5 1,,, 36 (21),,,?,, (Andrew Mack) ; ( Gil Merom ) ; (Jeffrey Record) ; ( Ivan A rregu n2toft) :,, 2005, 29,,,,, 1800 1849, 11. 82% ; 1850 1899, 20. 5% ; 1900 1949 34. 9% ; 1950 199955% Ivan A rregu n2toft, How the W eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p. 4 Andrew Mack, W hy B ig Nations Lose Small W ars, pp. 175 200; Gil Merom, How D em ocracies Lose Sm allw ars; Jeffrey Rocord, W hy the Strong Lose? pp. 16 31; Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars. 9
( ) 1945 2007 36,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ;,, ( ), 10 :, 20031, 4 9
?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ( ), 1945 2007 21 21 ( 1945 2007) () 1 2 3 4 1945. 9 1954. 7 1947. 3 1948 1947. 7 1949. 11 1948. 6 1957. 8 : ( ),,1991, 106 107 ; Gil Merom, How Dem ocracies Lose Sm allw ars, p. 15. 11
() () 5 6 7 8 9 1952. 1 1956. 3 1952. 10 1963. 12 1953 1953 1954. 8 1956. 3 1954. 11 1962. 3 10 1955. 4 1960 11 1955. 12 1960 12 1956. 7 1960 13 1956. 10 1956. 11 14 ( ) ( ) 1960. 7 1964. 11 15 1961. 2 1975. 1 16 1961. 5 1975. 4 17 1963. 1 1974. 8 18 1963. 10 1967. 11 19 1964. 9 1974. 9 12
? () () 20 1969. 4 1979. 12 21 1970. 4 1975. 4 22 1974. 7 1974. 8 23 1975. 10 1976. 7 24 1975. 11 1983. 6 25 1977. 7 1978. 3 26 1979. 2 1979. 3 27 1979. 12 1989. 2 28 1983. 10 1983. 12 29 1989. 12 1990. 2 30 1990. 8 1990. 8 31 1991. 1 1991. 2 32 1993. 4 1993. 11 33 1999. 3 1999. 6 13
() () 34 2001. 10 35 2003. 3 36 2006. 7 2006. 8 : (Melvin Small) ( J. David Singer) (Correlates of W ar) ( 1816 2003) 1945 1999 Melvin Small and J. David Singer, R esort to A rm s: International and Civil W ars, 1816 1980 (Beverley H ills: Sage Publications, 1983) ; Ivan A rregu n2 Toft, How thew eak W in W ars: A Theory of Asymm etric Conflict (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), pp. 228 232; : :,,1999, 390 401 21,, 63. 9% ;, 61. 1% ;,50% ;, 91. 7%,,, 43. 8%,,, ( ) 2001,,http: / /news. xinhuanet. com /world /2008201 /31 /content_7529686. htm,,, http: / / news. xinhuanet. com /world /20062 12 /21 /content_5514572. htm 14
?,,,, 21,: ( ),,, ;,,, ;,,, 10,: 26, 72. 2% 26,3 ( ), 22: 22 / ( ) 15. 8% (3) 84. 2% (16) 100% (7) 0% (0) 88. 5% (23), 26, ( ) 88. 5%, 10, SPSS 36,, 23 15
23 (Beta) t ( Sig. ) (Constant) 0. 158 0. 876 (X 1 ) 0. 822 7. 357 0. 000 (X 2 ) - 0. 006-0. 052 0. 959 (X 3 ) - 0. 028-0. 269 0. 790 (X 4 ) 0. 091 0. 890 0. 380 : X, Y( ) ; Y = 0. 822X 1-0. 006X 2-0. 028X 3 + 0. 091X 4 ; Adjusted R Square = 0. 672,, 0. 822, 0. 000,,, :,, ;,,,, ( ),,,, ( 16
? ),,,,,,, ( ),,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, 19,,, ( ),,,,,,,1991, 478 : ( ),, 1964, 12 :,,1999, 35, 44 : ( ), 15 16, 46 17
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?,,, 2007 2 2,,, 43,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, :,,,, :, 51 http: / / news. nen. com. cn /72341298102665216 /20070322 /2182654. shtm l.,,, Ivan A rregu n2toft, How thew eak W in W ars, p. 227 Ibid., pp. 226 227. B ruce Hoffman, Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq, June 2004, p. 15, http: / /www. rand. org/ pubs/occasional_papers/2005 /RAND_OP127. pdf. 33
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