Equity Research Report Flash Note Equity Research 股 票 研 究 Flash Note: Kay Mai 麦梓琪 快讯 : 医药行业 (86755) 2397 6685 maiziqi@gtjas.com Release of ilot Scheme about State Joint rocurement for Drugs Linked with Specific Volume 快 讯 证 券 研 究 报 告 医药行业 国家组织药品集中采购试点方案出台 Joint rocurement for Drugs in 4+7 Cities was filed on Nov. 5, 208. Key takeaways: ilot cities: Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Shenyang, Dalian, Xi'an, Chengdu and Xiamen. rocurement cycle: 2 months roducts procured: 3 drugs (please refer to the Appendix for dosage and volume). Tender conditions: products should satisfy one of the following conditions: ) originator drugs or reference listed drugs for Quality Consistency Evaluation for Generic Drugs ("QCE"); 2) generics passing QCE; or 3) generics approved under new Classification of Registration of Chemical Drugs in. Explanation for procurement execution: In the procurement cycle, usage of products winning the bid will be given first priority until the procurement volume achieves and usage of products not winning the bid is also allowed with suitable prices. rinciple of preliminary candidate winning bidder determination: No. of enterprises satisfying tender conditions No. of enterprises with best price bid 2 or above preliminary candidate 2 or above n.a. rinciple of final candidate winning bidder determination: No. of enterprises satisfying tender conditions Determination procedure preliminary candidate reliminary candidate will be: the one with biggest supplying area before the joint procurement; otherwise, the one with largest sales volume of major dosage in the cities mentioned above in 207. 2 or below 3 or above If the preliminary candidate faces seventh largest price cut among all bidders for this procurement, it will turn to final candidate; otherwise, it need to further reduce its price according to the level of price cut faced by the final candidate of other drugs with 3 or more competitors. final candidate winning bidder if bidding price fits all other requirement Others: Supporting documents related to purchase and sale contract, drug delivery, quality examination, price adjustment to candidates losing the bid and medical reimbursement standards will be issued by each pilot city. State Joint rocurement for Drugs Linked with Specific Volume ("SJDLSV") will accelerate the replacement of originator drugs by generics as well as price cut of generics. Based on the experience of the joint procurement in Shanghai, prices cuts of products procured in SJDLSV are expected to be 0%-40%, a level where originator drugs hardly accept, therefore accelerating the replacement of originator drugs by generics. In addition, we believe the SJDLSV will push forward QCE as passing QCE is the principal access to the major market share of those pilot cities and even other parts of the country. With more types of drugs passing QCE, the number of drugs procured through SJDLSV is expected to increase. Therefore, in the long run, SJDLSV will facilitate a sharp price cut of generics no matter whether they are included in the first round of SJDLSV or not. 2) SJDLSV may hurt industry bellwethers profitability. We believe the SJDLSV is not purposed to squeeze the reasonable profit of pharmaceuticals, but to help reduce selling expenses for pharmaceuticals in order to achieve drug price reduction. But its actual impact on companies may differ based on distinct competitive landscape of each product and unique marketing strategy of each bidder. For those manufacturers of generics which have occupied considerable market share, we cannot deny that they are the most competitive candidates with optimized production capacity efficiency. But See the last page for disclaimer age of 7
TablageHeader] their profitability may be hurt no matter whether they win the tender or not, as they are not able to reduce selling expenses straight away. Beneficiaries of SJDLSV are expected to be companies that have strong production capacity with little market share and low selling expenses input, whose profit is expected to surge through incremental increase in sales volume. Investment suggestion: As for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, SJDSV is changing the rules of the game for generics: In the future, the success of a manufacturer of generic drugs will depend on cost control and pipeline variety rather than marketing capability. Moreover, we believe that the primary reason for the issuance of the SJDLSV is to make room for the addition of more innovative drugs into RDL and to relieve the paying burden of medical insurance funds. Thus, innovative drugs are still the main objective for investment. All in all, we recommend temporarily avoiding the manufacturing industry which is under short-term uncertainty brought by the SJDSV. As the distribution industry is gradually getting rid of risks brought by the two-invoice system, we still suggest to pay proper attention to the distribution industry. Our top pick is Sinopharm (0099 HK) with T of HK$44.33. Currently, our investment rating for the health care sector is Outper. Appendix NO. roduct Drug Dosage 2 3 4 5 6 Atorvastatin regular Rosuvastatin Clopidogrel regular Irbesartan regular Amlodipine regular Entecavir regular Quantity (0'000) Atorvastatin Calcium 0mg 8,724.36 Atorvastatin Calcium 20mg 5,672.8 Rosuvastatin Calcium 0mg 8,285.70 Rosuvastatin Calcium Clopidogrel Hydrogen Sulphate Clopidogrel Hydrogen Sulphate 5mg 6,006.97 Irbesartan 75mg 4,432.42 Irbesartan 50mg 9,3.5 Amlodipine Besylate 5mg 29,382.02 Entecavir Company assing QCE 3-year AS Jialin pharmaceutical 3.46 Lepu pharmaceutical 3.04 Jialin pharmaceutical 5.8 Lepu pharmaceutical 3.33 Jingxin pharmaceutical 4.22 Hisun pharmaceutical 3.38 Chia tai Tianqing pharmaceutical Simcere pharmaceutical 3.29 Jingxin pharmaceutical 2.58 Hisun pharmaceutical.93 25mg 8,320.56 Salubris pharmaceutical 3.45 Originator 3-year AS fizer 6.33 fizer 8.57 AstraZeneca 7.05 AstraZeneca 4.4 75mg 5,746.59 Salubris pharmaceutical 8.72 Sanofi 6.05 0.5mg 4,33.5 Hanhui pharmaceutical 0.79 Huahai pharmaceutical 0.66 Hanhui pharmaceutical.29 Hengrui pharmaceutical.35 Jiangsu The Yellow River harmaceutical 2.89 Saike pharmaceutical.3 Haini pharmaceutical.25 Chia tai Tianqing pharmaceutical 4.4 Qingfeng pharmaceutical 2.68 Entecavir Capsules Qingfeng pharmaceutical 9.7 Sanofi 4.27 fizer 4.44 Hunan Dongting harmaceutical 7.02 7 Escitalopram regular Escitalopram Oxalate 0mg,003.44 Jewim pharmaceutical 7.3 Lundbeck 4.36 Kelun pharmaceutical 7.42 8 aroxetine regular aroxetine Tablet 20mg,85.66 Huahai pharmaceutical 3.86 GSK 9.84 9 Hansoh pharmaceutical Eli Lilly and 0mg,047.36 3.85 39.4 Olanzapine regular Company Olanzapine Eli Lilly and 5mg,783.47 Hansoh pharmaceutical 7.49 2.03 Company Cefuroxime Axetil Sinopharm Zhijun 2.55 0 Cefuroxime Axetil 250mg 3,35.59 United Laboratories.45 GSK 4.09 Brilliant pharmaceutical.08 Risperidone regular Risperidone mg 3,40.05 Huahai pharmaceutical 0.6 JANSSEN 2.56 2 Gefitinib regular oral dosage Gefitinib 250mg 49.5 Qilu pharmaceutical 62.45 AstraZeneca 35. 3 Fosinopril regular Bristol-Myers Fosinopril Sodium 0mg 2,304.47 Huahai pharmaceutical 2.08 Squibb 2.79 Irbesartan and Huahai pharmaceutical 3.72 4 Hydrochlorothiazide Irbesartan and Hydrochlorothiazide 50mg+ 9,25.60 2.5mg Chia tai Tianqing pharmaceutical 2.67 Sanofi 4.34 5 Lisinopril regular Lisinopril 0mg 208.7 Huahai pharmaceutical.33 AstraZeneca 3 See the last page for disclaimer age 2 of 7
TablageHeader] 6 7 8 9 20 2 22 23 24 25 26 5mg 22.62 Huahai pharmaceutical 0.86 AstraZeneca Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Chia tai Tianqing pharmaceutical 4.24 Tenofovir Disoproxil Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Fumarate regular 300mg 62.82 Qilu pharmaceutical 4.53 Gilead 8.22 Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Brilliant pharmaceutical 5.3 Losartan regular Losartan otassium 00mg,883.77 Huahai pharmaceutical 4.26 Merck &Co. 7.09 Losartan otassium 50mg 6,28.99 Huahai pharmaceutical 2.64 Merck &Co. 5.57 Amoxicillin regular Azithromycin regular Enalapril regular Levetiracetam Tramadol regular Imatinib regular oral dosage Alfacalcidol regular Montelukast regular Montmorillonite Amoxil Capsule Jinhua Conba Bio-pharm 250mg 5,64.60 Amoxil Capsule United Laboratories 0.54 Azithromvcin CSC harmaceutical 3.77 fizer 0.8 250mg 2,039.5 Azithromycin capsules Jiangsu Erye pharmaceutical.7 Azithromvcin 500mg 2,039.5 CSC harmaceutical 4.7 fizer Enalapril Maleate 0mg,48.88 Yangtze River harmaceutical.88 Merck &Co..26 Enalapril Maleate 5mg 82.52 Yangtze River harmaceutical 0.77 Merck &Co. 0.74 Levetiracetam 250mg 647.76 Jingxin pharmaceutical 3.3 UCB 4.47 Tramadol Hydrochoride 50mg 85.4 CSC harmaceutical.59 Imatinib Mesylate 00mg 253.66 Hansoh pharmaceutical 8.42 Novartis 77.37 Alfacalcidol 0.25μg 3,200.03 YAOHARMA.39 Alfacalcidol 0.5μg 694.78 YAOHARMA 2.87 TEIJIN HARMA TEIJIN HARMA Montelukast Sodium 0mg 2,632.23 Minsheng Binjiang harmaceutical Merck &Co. 7.03 Montmorillonite Simcere pharmaceutical.3 Montmorillonite 3g,699.32 Yangtze River harmaceutical.05 Montmorillonite Vital pharmaceutical.09 27 Captopril regular Captopril Changzhou pharmaceutical 0.9 Bristol-Myers 25mg 597.33 Captopril CSC harmaceutical 0.58 Squibb 0.95 28 Eli Lilly and emetrexed Disodium for 00mg 3.9 Sichuan Huiyu pharmaceutical 2459.56 3238.04 emetrexed for Company Eli Lilly and 33.4 emetrexed Disodium for 500mg 2.29 Sichuan Huiyu pharmaceutical 822.48 Company 29 Flurbiprofen Axetil 50mg5 Flurbiprofen Axetil 56.4 Wuhan Docan pharmaceutical 98 ml 30 Dexmedetomidine Dexmedetomidine Hydrochloride 0.2mg2 34.23 Yangtze River harmaceutical 20 ml 3 Azithromycin for Azithromycin for 0.5g 38.03 Hainan oly harmaceutical fizer 89.2 Source:Insight, Sunshine Medical rocurement All-in-One Guotai Junan International. 2.08 3.5 Ipsen.82 See the last page for disclaimer age 3 of 7
TablageHeader] 4+7 城市药品集中采购文件 于 208 年 月 5 日公布 方案纪要如下 : 试点城市 : 北京 天津 上海 重庆 广州 深圳 沈阳 大连 西安 成都 厦门 采购周期 :2 个月 采购品种 :3 个 ( 规格与采购量请见附录 ) 申报要求 : 申报品种需满足以下要求之一 :) 原研药及一致性评价参比制剂,2) 通过一致性评价的仿制药品以及 3) 按化学药品新注册分类批准的仿制药 另外, 申报企业须承诺申报品种的全年产销能力达到本次采购数量要求 采购执行说明 : 集中采购结果执行周期中, 医疗机构须优先使用集中采购中选品种, 并确保完成约定采购量 在此基础上, 剩余用量可适量采购同品种价格适宜的非中选药品 预中选品种确定准则 : 符合申报条件的企业数 家 2 家或以上 最低报价企业数 家 获得预中选资格 获得预中选资格 2 家或以上不适合 按以下规则及顺序确定 家企业获得预中选资格 : 本次集中采购前供货地区数多的企业优先 2207 年度上述 个地区该品种主品规销售量大的企业优先, 有多个主品规的, 销售量合并计算 拟中选品种确定准则 : 符合申报条件的企业数 确认程序 2 家或以下 3 家或以上 预中选品种申报价格降幅排名前列的 ( 不多于 7 家 ), 经双方确认后获得拟中选资格 ;2 其余预中选品种 : 联采办参考符合申报条件的企业数 3 家的拟中选品种平均降幅等确定议价谈判最低降幅 申报价格符合降幅要求且达成一致意见的, 即可获得拟中选资格 预中选品种申报价格符合本次报价的有关要求, 经双方确认后, 获得拟中选资格 其他 : 各试点地区按试点工作有关要求, 就购销合同 药品配送 质量检测 未中选品种价格调整 医保支付标准等事项发布补充文件 国家集中带量采购将加速进口替代以及仿制药价格下降 根据上海集中带量采购的经验, 我们预计此次采购药品价格将下降 0%~40%, 并到 达原研药较难接受的价格空间, 因此, 进口替代有望加速 另外, 由于一致性评价成为试点区域甚至是全国其他区域重要市场份额的主要准入 条件, 此次集采政策预计将推动药企加快完成一致性评价 随着通过一致性评价的药品的增多, 我们预计集采目录将会进一步扩展 因此, 从 长远来看, 该政策将造成仿制药 ( 不论是否在第一次采购范围内 ) 大幅降价 国家集中带量采购短期或不利于行业龙头的利润率 我们认为带量采购的目的并不是为了压缩企业的合理利润空间, 而是旨在帮助药企压缩销售费用以达到降药价的目的 但基于各产品竞争格局的区别以及各竞标者市场策略的差别, 该政策对不同公司的影响或有所区别 对于此前占据一定市场份额的仿药制造商来说, 虽不能否认其产能以及生产效率具备中标的优势, 但考虑其销售人员的费用是难以在短时间内直接砍掉, 因此, 无论公司是否中标, 其利润率预计将难免会受到负面影响 此前品种市占率相对较小且销售费用投放较少的但具备大规模产能的企业预计将是本次政策较为确定的受益者, 该等企业有望于中标后通过产品快速放量获得可观的利润增长 投资建议 : 对于制造业来说, 仿制药的游戏规则将因国家集中带量采购而发生根本性变化 : 成本的控制以及产品管线的厚度而不再是销售能力将成为未来决定仿制药制造商是否成功的重要因素 另外, 我们认为国家集中带量采购的出台主要的目的是让出额度给更多的创新药纳入医保以缓解医保基金支付压力, 因此, 创新药依然是未来的投资主线 总的来说, 我们认为目前制造业正处于国家带量集采带来的短期不确定性之中, 建议先暂时回避 考虑到流通行业已逐步走出两票制所带来的风险, 因此依然建议可以适当关注 行业首选股是国药控股 (0099 HK), 目标价为 44.33 港币 目前, 我们对行业的评级是 跑赢大市 See the last page for disclaimer age 4 of 7
TablageHeader] 附录 序号 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 品种名称品种名规格 阿托伐他汀口服常释剂型 瑞舒伐他汀口服常释剂型 氯吡格雷口服常释剂型 厄贝沙坦口服常释剂型 氨氯地平口服常释剂型 恩替卡韦口服常释剂型 艾司西酞普兰口服常释剂型 帕罗西汀口服常释剂型 采购数量 ( 万片 万袋 万支 ) 阿托伐他汀钙片 0mg 8,724.36 阿托伐他汀钙片 20mg 5,672.8 瑞舒伐他汀钙片 0mg 8,285.70 瑞舒伐他汀钙片 5mg 6,006.97 通过一致性评价的企业 企业近三年平均价 ( 最小规格 ) 北京嘉林药业股份有限公司 3.46 浙江乐普药业股份有限公司 3.04 北京嘉林药业股份有限公司 5.8 浙江乐普药业股份有限公司 3.33 浙江京新药业股份有限公司 4.22 浙江海正药业股份有限公司 3.38 南京正大天晴制药有限公司 南京先声东元制药有限公司 3.29 浙江京新药业股份有限公司 2.58 浙江海正药业股份有限公司.93 原研企业 原研近三年平均价 ( 最小规格 ) 辉瑞 6.33 辉瑞 8.57 阿斯利康 7.05 阿斯利康 4.4 硫酸氢氯吡格雷片 25mg 8,320.56 深圳信立泰药业股份有限公司 3.45 原研国内未上市 硫酸氢氯吡格雷片 75mg 5,746.59 深圳信立泰药业股份有限公司 8.72 赛诺菲 6.05 厄贝沙坦片 75mg 4,432.42 厄贝沙坦片 50mg 9,3.5 苯磺酸氨氯地平片 5mg 29,382.02 恩替卡韦分散片 9 奥氮平口服常释剂型奥氮平片 0 头孢呋辛酯 ( 头孢呋辛 ) 口服常释剂型 0.5mg 4,33.5 瀚晖制药有限公司 0.79 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 0.66 瀚晖制药有限公司.29 江苏恒瑞医药股份有限公司.35 江苏黄河药业股份有限公司 2.89 华润赛科药业有限责任公司.3 上海海尼药业有限公司.25 正大天晴药业集团股份有限公司 4.4 江西青峰药业有限公司 2.68 原研国内未上市 赛诺菲 4.27 辉瑞 4.44 原研国内未上市 恩替卡韦胶囊江西青峰药业有限公司 9.7 原研国内未上市 草酸艾司西酞普兰片 0mg,003.44 湖南洞庭药业股份有限公司 7.02 山东京卫制药有限公司 7.3 四川科伦药业股份有限公司 7.42 灵北制药 4.36 盐酸帕罗西汀片 20mg,85.66 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 3.86 葛兰素史克制药 9.84 头孢呋辛酯片 250mg 3,35.59 0mg,047.36 江苏豪森药业集团有限公司 3.85 礼来制药 39.4 5mg,783.47 江苏豪森药业集团有限公司 7.49 礼来制药 2.03 国药集团致君 ( 深圳 ) 制药有限公司 2.55 珠海联邦制药股份有限公司中山分公司.45 成都倍特药业有限公司.08 葛兰素史克制药 4.09 利培酮口服常释剂型利培酮片 mg 3,40.05 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 0.6 比利时杨森制药 2.56 2 3 4 5 6 吉非替尼口服常释剂型福辛普利口服常释剂型 厄贝沙坦氢氯噻嗪口服常释剂型 赖诺普利口服常释剂型 替诺福韦二吡呋酯口服常释剂型 7 氯沙坦口服常释剂型 8 9 20 2 阿莫西林口服常释剂型 阿奇霉素口服常释剂型 依那普利口服常释剂型 左乙拉西坦口服常释剂型 吉非替尼片 250mg 49.5 齐鲁制药 ( 海南 ) 有限公司 62.45 阿斯利康制药 35. 福辛普利钠片 0mg 2,304.47 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 2.08 百时美施贵宝制药 2.79 厄贝沙坦氢氯噻嗪片 赖诺普利片 富马酸替诺福韦二吡呋酯片 50mg+2.5mg 9,25.60 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 3.72 南京正大天晴制药有限公司 2.67 赛诺菲制药 4.34 0mg 208.7 浙江华海药业股份有限公司.33 阿斯利康制药 3 5mg 22.62 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 0.86 阿斯利康制药 正大天晴药业集团股份有限公司 4.24 富马酸替诺福韦二吡呋酯片 300mg 62.82 齐鲁制药有限公司 4.53 富马酸替诺福韦二吡呋酯片成都倍特药业有限公司 5.3 吉利德制药 8.22 氯沙坦钾片 00mg,883.77 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 4.26 默沙东制药 7.09 氯沙坦钾片 50mg 6,28.99 浙江华海药业股份有限公司 2.64 默沙东制药 5.57 阿莫西林胶囊 阿莫西林胶囊 250mg 5,64.60 浙江金华康恩贝生物制药有限公司 珠海联邦制药股份有限公司中山分公司 0.54 原研国内未上市 阿奇霉素片石药集团欧意药业有限公司 3.77 辉瑞制药 0.8 250mg 2,039.5 阿奇霉素胶囊苏州二叶制药有限公司.7 原研国内未上市 阿奇霉素片 500mg 2,039.5 石药集团欧意药业有限公司 4.7 辉瑞制药 马来酸依那普利片 0mg,48.88 马来酸依那普利片 5mg 82.52 扬子江药业集团江苏制药股份有限公司扬子江药业集团江苏制药股份有限公司.88 默沙东制药.26 0.77 默沙东制药 0.74 左乙拉西坦片 250mg 647.76 浙江京新药业股份有限公司 3.3 优时比制药 4.47 22 曲马多口服常释剂型盐酸曲马多片 50mg 85.4 石药集团欧意药业有限公司.59 原研国内未上市 23 24 25 伊马替尼口服常释剂型 阿法骨化醇口服常释剂型 孟鲁司特口服常释剂型 甲磺酸伊马替尼片 00mg 253.66 江苏豪森药业集团有限公司 8.42 诺华制药 77.37 阿法骨化醇片 0.25μg 3,200.03 重庆药友制药有限责任公司.39 帝人株式会社 2.08 阿法骨化醇片 0.5μg 694.78 重庆药友制药有限责任公司 2.87 帝人株式会社 3.5 孟鲁司特钠片 0mg 2,632.23 杭州民生滨江制药有限公司默沙东制药 7.03 26 蒙脱石口服散剂蒙脱石散 3g,699.32 先声药业有限公司.3 益普生制药.82 See the last page for disclaimer age 5 of 7
TablageHeader] 27 卡托普利口服常释剂型 蒙脱石散扬子江药业集团有限公司.05 蒙脱石散四川维奥制药有限公司.09 卡托普利片常州制药厂有限公司 0.9 25mg 597.33 卡托普利片石药集团欧意药业有限公司 0.58 施贵宝 0.95 注射用培美曲塞二钠 00mg 3.9 四川汇宇制药有限公司 2459.56 礼来制药 3238.04 28 培美曲塞注射剂 33.4 注射用培美曲塞二钠 500mg 2.29 四川汇宇制药有限公司 822.48 礼来制药 29 氟比洛芬酯注射剂氟比洛芬酯注射液 50mg5ml 56.4 武汉大安制药有限公司 98 原研国内未上市 30 右美托咪定注射剂盐酸右美托咪定注射液 0.2mg2ml 34.23 扬子江药业集团有限公司 20 原研国内未上市 3 阿奇霉素注射剂注射用阿奇霉素 0.5g 38.03 海南普利制药股份有限公司辉瑞制药 89.2 资料来源 :Insight 上海阳光医药采购网 国泰君安国际 See the last page for disclaimer age 6 of 7
TablageHeader] Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 8 months Rating Definition Buy 买入 Relative erance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate 收集 Relative erance is 5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral 中性 Relative erance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce 减持 Relative erance is -5% to -5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell 卖出 Relative erance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 8 months Rating Definition Outper 跑赢大市 Relative erance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral 中性 Relative erance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underper 跑输大市 Relative erance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS () Except for SHENZHEN INTERNATIONAL (0052 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for KAISA GROU (0638 HK),GUOTAI JUNAN I (0788 HK),BINHAI INVESTMENT (02886 HK),VALUE A SHARE (03095 HK),CAM SCSMALLCA (0357 HK),Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than % of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not had investment banking relationships with the issuer(s) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 2 months. (5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the ination and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the ination and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 208 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27F., Low Block, Grand Millennium laza, 8 Queen s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-98 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk See the last page for disclaimer age 7 of 7