Company Research Kingsoft (3888.HK) May 15 st, 213 Kingsoft(3888.HK) Buy Target price: HK$11., Upside:+12.8% Major four business functions all witnessed steady growth Investment Highlights Kingsoft(3888.hk)is one of the earliest software and Internet service provider in China, and is still a major brand. The company was founded in 1988, and undergoing 25 years development and transition, now the products range from PC desktop software like Anti-virus software to web browser, to WPS office kit, online gaming, Mobile apps and cloud based platform. Total users passed 2 million in China. The company finished restructuring and MBO process in 212, operating performance achieved a record high. Since 211, the company elected new president and CEO. Four subsidiaries finished MBO and has been given top priority for development, including Gaming, Kingsoft Network, WPS application Software and Cloud. In 212, total revenue and net profit grew by 38% and 31% to RMB 1.41 bn and 43mn, far beyond the average growth rate of 7.5% and 1.4% achieved in last three years. Gaming continues providing steady cash flow while Kingsoft network has become another growth driver. Based on strong games portfolio and continue develpment, key games like the series of <JX online> has been popular for several years and continue achieve healthy growth. <JX online 3> grew 13% in 212, we expect it may continue grow +5% in revenue in 213. Besides, Kingsoft network business also enjoys steady growth based on the user of antivirus software and Kingsoft browser. In 212, revenue from Kingsoft doubled and it may still be an major growth driver in 213-215. WPS software merited from Government orders, while Cloud business may open another major revenue source in two years time. Kingsoft has been a major supplier to government office software orders as the revenue of WPS software grew three-fold in 212 compared to 29, It also invested in cloud platform since 27, and has set up partnership with Xiaomi, Skyworth, this market has the potential to grow to RMB 1bn within ten years time. Intiatied with Buy rating and TP of HK$9.9. Adding the cooperation with another three Internet Giants - Tencent, Alibaba and Baidu, we are confident for contituing strong revenue growth for Kingsoft in 213, margin may squeezed for few percent. Current cash postion is HK$ 2.3bn. Target price is for~16x the 214 expected EPS, implying a +17.6% upside for current price. Internet Media and Software Analyst: Qiu Lin (Eric) SFC CE No.:AYI76 (852)- 2899312 lin.qiu@guosen.com.hk Stock performance Source: Tencent Finance Key Data Price(HK$) 9.75 Shares Outstanding(m) 1,164 Market Cap. (HK$ m) 11,349 Free float (%) 72.8 52 Week Range 9.75 /2.96 Controlling Shareholder Lei Jun (27.1%) BVPS (HK$) 2.27 Asset-liability ratio (%) 26.5 Exhibit 1: Financial Summary Year to Dec 211A 212A 213E 214E 215E Turnover (RMB m) 1,21 1,411 1,969 2,449 2,91 Turnover Growth (%) 5.1 38.3 39.6 24.4 18.5 Net Profit (RMB m) 32 433 514 674 83 Net Profit Growth (%) (14.1) 35.1 18.8 31.2 19.1 EPS (RMB).28.37.42.55.66 CFO per share(rmb).24.47.5.66.79 P/E (x) 25.6 19.2 16.8 12.8 1.7 P/B (x) 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7 Dividend per share(hkd).1.11.15.19.23 For ratings definitions and other important disclosures, refer to the Information Disclosures at the end of this report. 1
公司报告金山软件 (3888.HK) 213 年 5 月 15 日 截至 31/12 211A 212A 213E 214E 215E 1,21 1,411 1,969 2,449 2,91 5.1 38.3 39.6 24.4 18.5 32 433 514 674 83 (14.1) 35.1 18.8 31.2 19.1.28.37.42.55.66.24.47.5.66.79 25.6 19.2 16.8 12.8 1.7 2.9 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.7.1.11.15.19.23
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5 4 3 2 1 246 246 229 25 231 263 243 284 293 9 Q1 21 67 Q2 21 85 Q3 21 131 Q4 21 67 Q1 211 14 Q2 211 75 74 88 Q3 211 Q4 211 Q1 212 322 365 431 112 18 125 Q2 212 Q3 212 Q4 212 季度收入 ( 单位 : 百万元 ) 净利润 ( 单位 : 百万元 ) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 87% 87% 86% 85% 86% 87% 92% 9% 9% 9% 88% 88% 39% 29% 34% 13% 42% 4% 3% 3% 36% 36% 3% 3% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 21 21 21 21211211211211212212212212 毛利率 (%) 经营性利润率 (%) 金山办公软件 19% 金山云 1% 金山网络 19% 金山游戏 61% 5
4 35 3 34 29 296 273 25 2 238 25 2 15 121 15 1 95 117 1 5 5 37 28 29 21 211 212 29 21 211 212 剑侠世界 收入( 百万元 ) 剑侠情缘网络版 3 收入( 百万元 ) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 122 139 13 114 116 113 7 6 5 4 3 2 13 34 48 62 2 1 1 27 28 29 21 211 212 28 29 21 211 212 剑侠情缘网络版 2 收入( 百万元 ) 反恐行动 收入( 百万元 ) 6
剑侠情缘网络版 1 7% 其它 13% 剑侠世界 32% 反恐行动 7% 剑侠情缘网络版 2 13% 剑侠情缘网络版 3 28% 7
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 82 71 63 47 63 65 39 56 35 31 28 44 4 28 29 22 1Q 211 2Q 211 3Q 211 4Q 211 1Q 212 2Q 212 3Q 212 4Q 212 剑网 3 季度收入 ( 百万元 ) 剑网 3 季度活跃付费用户数 (APA, 万人 ) 8
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45.5% 46.2% 27.% 27.9% 8.% 8.6% 5.9% 5.7% 4.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.% 2.4% 3.5% 2.% 1.% 1.%.9%.8%.7% CNZZ CNZZ 1
16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 11 11 12 1 12 14 13 12 1 8 6 4 2 12 13 17 2 24 1Q 211 8% 2Q 211 31% 3Q 211 18% 2% 4Q 211 1Q 212 71% 41 2Q 212 85% 76 3Q 212 17 41% 4Q 212 11% 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% 网址导航页面日均独立访问用户数 ( 单位 : 百万人 ) 广告收入 ( 单位 : 百万元 ) 广告收入季度环比增速 11
5 4 3 23 3 34 4 43 2 1 4Q 211 1Q 212 2Q 212 3Q 212 4Q 212 月活跃用户数 ( 万人 ) 12
CNZZ 13
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3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 647 491 42 34 35 28 65 11 48 195 36 248 851 1,22 1,124 1,18 212 213E 214E 215E 金山游戏收入金山网络收入金山办公软件收入其他业务及金山云收入 15
211A 212A 213F 214F 215F 1,2,58 1,411,161 1,969,282 2,448,891 2,91,395 147,812 186,939 295,392 342,845 377,181 872,696 1,224,222 1,673,89 2,16,46 2,524,214 85.5% 86.8% 85.% 86.% 87.% 33,848 385,49 571,92 71,178 841,45 125,873 234,115 413,549 489,778 58,279 127,498 147,954 216,621 244,889 29,139 (16,343) 42,834 331,82 413,91 472,628 661,2 812,391 (2,278) 16,1 61,669 89,271 122, 122, 122, (6,15) 8,62 1, 1, 1, 385,196 527,793 64,628 793,2 944,391 (5,162) (61,359) (9,694) (118,98) (141,659) 335,34 466,434 513,934 674,22 82,732 14,921 33,845 32,113 432,589 513,934 674,22 82,732.28.37.42.55.66.35.46.53.69.83.1.11.15.19.23 16
28A 29A 21A 211A 212A 345,626 47,98 392,767 395,328 371,213 7,138 6,972 45,83 44,142 43,21 2,377 2,377 11,71 14,559 14,559 39,71 48,489 69,45 68,17 53,261 11,62 38,738 8,19 4,722 4,112 18,793 1,622 2,122 27,77 6,378 93 18,675 4,99 7,182 13,785 11,812 27,822 2,52 2,649 3,542 4,5 5,864 29,262 28,917 25,67 27,547 32,962 469,686 583,813 599,531 662,79 576,6 4,686 5,384 2,856 3,311 17,6 84,819 12,378 98,939 8,366 13,346 55,138 6,75 85,125 9,956 12,476 137,52 161,262 5,889 3,122 2,25 95 113 111,78 85, 19, 1,269,537 1,268,98 1,656,157 1,953,77 2,416,259 1,531,777 1,457,57 1,845,282 2,351,81 2,864,462 2,621 1,531,777 1,457,57 1,845,282 2,351,81 3,65,83 7,649 12,597 15,571 16,568 23,89 12,18 346,655 413,559 16,792 186,896 163,23 219,4 298,827 183,445 158,643 161,57 161,21 185,462 19,616 19,453 3,765 17,221 11,22 371,862 377,763 446,475 761,54 931,959 31,179 42,144 29,139 2,321 14,252 7,863 16,653 35,138 2,24 19,373 39,42 58,797 64,277 4,345 33,625 639,34 525,349 48,241 44,974 347,965 81,481 16,23 253,914 275,739 362,447 723,335 883,575 1,21,77 1,624,488 12,848 15,618 24,183 93,287 16,13 232,555 34,8 61,832 223,238 266,637 1,328,365 1,64,31 1,934,61 2,213,12 2,674,932 1.4 1.69 1.9 2.27 17
Information Disclosures Stock ratings, sector ratings and related definitions Stock Ratings: Buy: A return potential of 1 % or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Neutral: A return potential ranging from -1% to 1% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: A negative return of 1% or more relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sector Ratings: Buy: The sector will outperform the overall market by 1% or higher within 6 12 months. Neutral: The sector performance will range from -1% to 1% relative to overall market within 6 12 months. Sell: The sector will underperform the overall market by 1% or lower within 6 12 months. Interest disclosure statement The analyst is licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Neither the analyst nor his/her associates serves as an officer of the listed companies covered in this report and has no financial interests in the companies. Guosen Securities (HK) Brokerage Co., Ltd. and its associated companies (collectively Guosen Securities (HK) ) has no disclosable financial interests (including securities holding) or make a market in the securities in respect of the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no investment banking relationship within the past 12 months, to the listed companies. Guosen Securities (HK) has no individual employed by the listed companies. Disclaimers The prices of securities may fluctuate up or down. It may become valueless. It is as likely that losses will be incurred rather than profit made as a result of buying and selling securities. The content of this report does not represent a recommendation of Guosen Securities (HK) and does not constitute any buying/selling or dealing agreement in relation to the securities mentioned. Guosen Securities (HK) may be seeking or will seek investment banking or other business (such as placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or proprietary trading in such securities) with the listed companies. Individuals of Guosen Securities (HK) may have personal investment interests in the listed companies. This report is based on information available to the public that we consider reliable, however, the authenticity, accuracy or completeness of such information is not guaranteed by Guosen Securities (HK). This report does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual clients and does not constitute a personal investment recommendation to anyone. Clients are wholly responsible for any investment decision based on this report. Clients are advised to consider whether any advice or recommendation contained in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances. This report is not intended to be an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. This report is for distribution only to clients of Guosen Securities (HK). Without Guosen Securities (HK) s written authorization, any form of quotation, reproduction or transmission to third parties is prohibited, or may be subject to legal action. Such information and opinions contained therein are subject to change and may be amended without any notification. This report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guosen Securities (HK) and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. 18
信息披露 公司评级 行业评级及相关定义 公司评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅在 1% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘涨幅介于 -1% 与 1% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 个股相对大盘跌幅大于 1% 行业评级买入 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报高于市场整体水平 1% 以上 ; 中性 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报介于市场整体水平 -1% 与 1% 之间 ; 减持 : 我们预计未来 6-12 个月内, 行业整体回报低于市场整体水平 1% 以上 利益披露声明 报告作者为香港证监会持牌人士, 分析员本人或其有联系者并未担任本研究报告所评论的上市法团高级管理人员, 也未持有其任何财务权 益 本报告中, 经纪有限公司及其所属关联机构 ( 合称) 并无持有该公司须作出披露的财务权益 ( 包括持股 ), 在过去 12 个月内与该公司并无投资银行关系, 亦无进行该公司有关股份的庄家活动 本公司员工均非该上市公司的雇员 免责条款 证券价格有时可能非常波动 证券价格可升可跌, 甚至变成毫无价值 买卖证券未必一定能够赚取利润, 反而可能会招致损失 本研究报告内容既不代表 的推荐意见, 也并不构成所涉及的个别股票的买卖或交易要约 或其集团公 司有可能会与本报告涉及的公司洽谈投资银行业务或其它业务 ( 例如配售代理 牵头经办人 保荐人 包销商或从事自营投资于该股票 ) 不排除其员工有个人投资于本报告内所提及的上市法团 报告中的资料均来自公开信息, 我们力求准确可靠, 但对这些信息的正确性 公正性及完整性不做任何保证 本报告没有考虑到个别客户 特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要, 并不构成个人投资建议, 客户据此投资, 责任自负 客户在阅读本研究报告时应考虑报告中的任何意 见或建议是否符合其个人特定状况 本报告并不存在招揽或邀约购买或出售任何证券的企图 本报告仅向特定客户传送, 未经国信证券香港书面授权许可, 任何人不得引用 转载以及向第三方传播, 否则可能将承担法律责任 研究报告所载的资料及意见, 如有任何更改, 本司将不作另行通知 在一些管辖区域内, 针对或意图向该等区域内的市民 居民 个人或实体发布 公布 供其使用或提供获取渠道的行为会违反该区域内所适用的法律或规例或令 受制于任何注册或领牌规定, 则本研究报告不适用于该等管辖区域内的市民 居民或身处该范围内的任何人或实体 19