1 2 3 1. 310030 2. 100054 3. 116000 CFS BP doi 10. 13928 /j. cnki. wrahe. 2016. 04. 020 TV697. 1 A 1000-0860 2016 04-0088-05 Abandoned water risk ratio control-based reservoir pre-discharge control method GUO Tuanting 1 CAO Lu 2 LIAO Shengli 3 1. Huadian Electric Power Research Institute Hangzhou 310030 Zhejiang China 2. Beijing Zhongshui Runze Consulting Co. Ltd. Beijing 100054 China 3. Hydropower and Water Information Research Institute Dalian University of Technology Dalian 116000 Liaoning China Abstract Aiming at the phenomena of the abandoned water which are almost occur in flood season from the hydropower stations with limited regulating capacities a study on the reservoir pre-discharge control is carried out in combination with the mid-term runoff forecast concerned. At first a model directly related to the forcast and risk is established for quantifying the reservoir a- bandoned water risk and then the decision-making for reservoir control at the moment that facing the abandonment of water is adjusted in accordance with the daily runoff forecast information by taking the risk range as the basis for control of the pre-discharge amplitude. The result from the actual control made by taking Puding Hydropower Station as a case shows that the abandoned water risk ratio control-based reservoir pre-discharg control method mentioned above can not only reduce the power generation loss caused by abandoned water but also can ensure the water level of the reservoir at the end of the flood season. Key words CFS Climate Forecast System forecast BP neural network mid-term runoff forecast forecast period abandoned water risk ratio reservoir pre-discharge 1 1. 1 2003 2015-09-01 1990 88 W ater Resources and Hydropower Engineering V ol. 47 No. 4
85% NCEP CFS 10 CFS 1. 2 1. 2. 1 CFS 2. 2 1-2 BP BP BP 3-4 11-12 1 3 ~ 15 d CFS 1. 2. 2 5-6 1 2. 3 9 BP r - 1 r 7-9 2 CFS 2. 1 CFS 10% 50% 3 d CFS Climate Forecast System 5 d 7 d Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ CFS 1 m 3 /s NCEP 2004 8 1 89
1 m 3 /s 3 d 5 d 7 d Ⅰ - 50 100-50 200 Ⅱ Ⅲ 100 730 730 + 200 1 200-50 300 300 1 650 1 200 + 1 660 + 2. 4 2005 ~ 2014 6 ~ 10 3 d 5 d 7 d 2 ~ 4 3 5 d 2 3 d 3 d 5 d 7 d 80% Ⅰ 20% Ⅱ 10% 15% Ⅲ 10% 4 7 d BP 80% θ D V t Q t i = 3 Δ j p K ij 1 j θ i j 3 1 2 3 p ij V t i j K j i D Q t j Δ j j = 1 90
Step1 Step5 p ij Step2 K j V t + 1 Step1 Step3 2 5 Δ j Step4 3 1 84 MW θ 1 145. 0 m 1 126. 0 m 4 6 ~ 8 1 142. 0 m 4. 01 m 3 2. 48 m 3 6 ~ 8 9 ~ 10 86. 5% 6 ~ 10 5. 1 Step1 V t Z t D i t N t Q t θ t θ t > 2 θ max Q t < Q max Step2 Q t Step4 Step2 λ Q t Q max θ 6-8 = 0. 1 θ 9-10 = 0. 1 l Q l θ l θ max Q l θ Step4 6-8 = 0. 3 θ 9-10 = 0. 3 Q max Step3 Step5 188. 4 m 3 /s 13. 9 MW 1 d D 2007 2 θ 6-8 = 0. 1 θ 9-10 = 0. 3 Step3 Q max Step5 7 2. 43 8. 90 1 145. 0 Step4 6 ~ 8 /d / kw h / m 3 /m 3 2. 39 9. 50 1 144. 2 5 2. 46 8. 91 1 143. 6 7 2. 49 8. 64 1 142. 7 3 2. 37 9. 62 1 145. 0 5 2. 28 10. 44 1 145. 0 7 2. 35 9. 77 1 145. 0 3 2. 24 10. 81 1 145. 0 5 2. 42 9. 13 1 145. 0 91
9 3 ~ 10 / / m 3 / kw h /m /d 3 0. 1 0. 1 10 0. 61 1. 78 2006 5 0. 15 0. 1 21 6 1. 63 0. 12 1. 71 1. 82 1 145. 0 1 145. 0 7 0. 2 0. 1 0 0 1. 83 3 0. 1 0. 2 39 9. 54 2. 38 2007 5 0. 1 0. 2 48 37 10. 88 9. 08 2. 23 2. 43 1 145. 0 1 145. 0 7 0. 1 0. 25 35 8. 85 2. 43 3 0. 1 0. 35 56 11. 21 2. 73 2008 5 0. 1 0. 4 65 55 12. 46 10. 91 2. 60 2. 77 1 145. 0 1 145. 0 7 0. 1 0. 45 52 10. 20 2. 84 5. 2 0. 05 6 ~ 8 3 0. 1 0. 35 24 9. 88 1. 76 2009 5 0. 1 0. 4 28 22 10. 74 9. 49 1. 67 1. 81 1 136. 4 1 136. 4 9 ~ 10 7 0. 1 0. 55 21 8. 89 1. 86 0 1 3 0. 1 0. 45 42 5. 66 2. 13 2010 5 0. 1 0. 25 49 41 6. 12 5. 07 2. 08 2. 19 1 144. 4 1 144. 4 7 0. 1 0. 3 35 4. 47 2. 24 2006 ~ 2010 6 ~ 10 1 3 2006 7 d J 21 1. 63 m 3 5 J 7. 0% 0. 12 kw h 6 forecast error J 8 J. 2012 43 7 803-807. 9 J. 2000 1 14-18. 10. J. 11 2005 3 350-353. 12. J. 2014 34 4 8-14.. J. 1995 11 36-38. 2 Dirk Schwanenberg Fernando Mainardi Fan Steffi Naumann et al. Short-Term reservoir optimization for flood mitigation under meteorological and hydrological forecast uncertainty J. Water Resources Management 2015 29 5 1635-1651. 3. GFS J. 2013 5 730-734. 4.. 2014 4 39-45... 2011 2 26-31. 6. J. 2012 2 57-60. 7 Zhang YanPing Wang GuoLi Peng Yong et al. Risk analysis of dynamic control of reservoir limited water level by considering flood 7 1888-1893.. Science China Technological Sciences 2011 54.. CFS 2012 6 797-808.. BP J. BP 92