35 5 Vol. 35 No. 5 2012 10 Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences Oct. 2012. 2012. 50 a J. 35 5 591-602. Li Ming-gang Guan Zhao-yong Han Jie et al. 2012. Interdecadal changes of summertime precipitation extremes in East China in recent five decades J. Trans Atmos Sci 35 5 591-602. in Chinese 50 a 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1. 2. 210044 90 1960 2009 6 8 50 a 20 a 30 a 1990 9 d 9 d 3 P467 A 1674-7097 2012 05-0591-12 Interdecadal changes of summertime precipitation extremes in East China in recent five decades LI Ming-gang 1 2 GUAN Zhao-yong 1 2 HAN Jie 1 2 JIN Da-chao 1 2 1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education 2. School of Atmospheric Sciences NUIST Nanjing 210044 China Abstract Using the daily rainfall data of 90 stations in East China from 1960 to 2009 the interdecadal changes of occurrence frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in boreal summer June-July- August in East China in recent five decades are investigated. Results show that there are significant interdecadal changes of the precipitation extremes in the past 50 years. In recent 20 years the precipitation extremes occur more frequently than those in the earlier 30 years and more and stronger extreme precipitation events are observed in 1990s. In East China the extreme events of precipitation processes last usually less than 9 days. However the extreme events of continuous rainy days last usually more than 9 days. Relative to the other regions in East China the more precipitation processes w ith higher persistence and stronger intensity occur in Fujian Province. The largest extreme rainfall appear in conjunction part of Jiangxi and Anhui provinces. Zones w here the extreme events of precipitation occur more frequently moves interdecadally in meridional direction. The north-south shifts of the zones mentioned a- bove are also observed in the extreme events of daily precipitation and precipitation processes. Interestingly there exist tw o frequent occurrence zones of precipitation extreme events over the south and north of Yangtze River respectively. The two zones get closer to each other and even merge into one in some 2011-04-12 2012-06-27 2007BAC29B02 1986 li. ericko@ yahoo. com. cn guanzy@ nuist. edu. cn.
592 35 decades and get distant from each other in other decades which is observed in the last three decades. Key words East China precipitation extremes boreal summer interdecadal change 0 al. 2000 NAO PNA 2001 Groisman et al. 1999 Alexander et al. 2006 SSTA 2004 Karl and Knight 1998 2010 Yamamoto and Sakurai Zhai et al. 2005 2009 1999 Stone et al. 2000 2007 1 2005 2006 1. 1 2009 Zhai et al. 743 2005 2008 114 ~ 123 E ~ 38 N 1960 2009 6 8 1999 5 2010 1996 2008 5% 2009 1 a 1 a 2 a 90 2a 20 70 2004 8 20 km 1970 2a 1. 2 Zhang et 2009 1 al. 2004 2010 d 2 d 3 d 4 d 4 Jones et al. 2004 Stone et 2 d
5 50 a 593 3 d 2 1 d 2. 1 4 3 d 116 E 118 E 120 E 3 11 a 115. 5 ~ 116. 5 E Plummer et 12 117. 5 ~ 118. 5 E 12 al. 1999 Manton et al. 2001 Zhai et al. 2005 119. 5 ~ 120. 5 E 12 2010 11 a 1 1960 2009 50 a 1a 116 E 90 0. 1 10 mm 95% 12 10 11 2 3 d 3 d 3 d 1980 3 d 1960 2009 50 a 90 4 7 3 d 1980 1990 3 d 95% 1 3 3 d 3 1960 2009 50 a 90 1960 1980 95% 1980 2009 1990 120 E 1c 9 1980 2 d 1990 4 1980 2 d 1960 2009 50 a 90 3 95% 1. 3 1960 2009 50 a 10 a 1960 N 1970 1980 1990 2000 5 n 2 i = - n 2 118 E 1b 7 x ^x j = x j +i j = 1 2 2. 2 N n = 11 50 90 a j 6 ~ 45 50 a
594 35 1 Fig. 1 116 E a 118 E b 120 E c 11 a The time sections of 11-yr running accumulated occurrence frequency of the extreme events of daily precipitation along a 116 E b 118 E and c 120 E from south to north 80 ~ 120 95 95 2010 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 5 5 1 5 Table 1 Regional averaged occurrence frequency of extreme events of precipitation in East China in each decade 2b f 3 d 1990 23. 8 1 2000 20. 9 1980 16. 9 1960 2b 18 12 ~ 18 1960 1969 18. 7 7. 6 5. 2 6. 0 1970 1979 17. 4 6. 2 4. 3 5. 9 1980 1989 16. 9 5. 5 3. 7 3. 7 1990 1999 23. 8 10. 3 5. 7 4. 4 2000 2009 20. 9 8. 1 4. 5 3. 2 1970 2c 12 ~ 19. 5 7. 5 4. 7 4. 6 24 17. 4 1 1980 2d 1990 1960 2b 2e 18 30 24 2000 2f 1990 1970 2c
5 50 a 595 2 Fig. 2 a 1960 b 1970 c 1980 d 1990 e 2000 f / 10 a 90 mm mm a Locations of 90 stations in East China and spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity Contours show the 10-yr mean intensity of extreme daily precipitation with the units of mm and the shadings denote the magnitude higher than 90 mm of the extreme events of 1-d precipitation during b 1960s c 1970s d 1980s e 1990s and f 2000s 1980 3 1980 2d 1990 2e 1980 1970 1980 1960 1970
596 35 2000 3 d 2f 3 d 1960 2009 3 d 3 3 d 95% 3 d 3f 3 d 5 20 ~ 70 20 2 4 50 a 14 70 2008 2 107 3 d 2010 2 1990 2009 1980 44 40 35 3 d 60 m 3 50 a 3 d 40 1990 2000 2 3 d Table 2 Regional averaged precipitation intensity of extreme events of precipitation in East China in each decade mm 1990 90 10. 3 / 2000 8. 1 / 1980 5. 5 /1 3 d 1960 1969 84. 50 184. 27 257. 23 183. 75 1970 1979 83. 11 177. 04 234. 29 160. 16 1980 1989 83. 04 171. 74 233. 66 156. 99 1990 1999 86. 57 189. 49 262. 61 188. 88 2000 2009 86. 00 188. 91 246. 49 156. 51 84. 64 182. 29 246. 86 169. 26 3 d 5 3 d 1970 3b 1980 3c 3 1990 3d 4 3 d 2. 3 3 d 3 d 1999 3 d 1960 3a 1970 Qian and 3b 1980 Lin 2005 3 d 3c 1990 2007 3 d 2009 3 d 3d 10 a
5 50 a 597 3 Fig. 3 1960 a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e 3 d / 10 a 1960 2009 50 a / 50 a 50 a f 180 mm mm Spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of 3-d precipitation in East China during a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s e 2000s and f spatial distribution of occurrence frequency 50 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of 3-d precipitation in East China during 1960 2009 Contours show the mean intensity of extreme 3-d precipitation with the units of mm and the shadings denote the magnitude greater than 180 mm 3e 3 1990 3 d 3d 2000 3e 50 a 3f 2. 4 1970 1960 2009 3b 1980 3c 3 95% 3 d 50 a 50 a 23. 3
598 35 27 95% 17 3 d 50 a 1960 1 6 23 2000 3. 2 1960 5a 3d 1980 1960 3. 7 1990 5. 7 1 1960 4a 5 1980 5c 5 ~ 8 5 ~ 8 5 3 3 10 a 1990 5. 2 1 1970 4b 4. 3 1 2000 5e 1980 4c 1960 3 1960 1990 5a 3 d 1970 5b 1990 4d 2000 4e 1980 5c 10 a 3 d 1990 5d 2000 5e 3 1990 2 188. 88 5 2000 1970 1980 3 2000 160 mm 2 1970 1980 3 180 mm 2 3 d 6 5 1960 1990 4f 8 ~ 9 1960 6a d 10 1970 6b 1990 6d 1960 6a 2009 5 4a e 4f 169. 26 mm 2. 5 1970 5d mm 2000 13 d 15 d 246. 86 mm 2 1960 9 d 2009 9 d
5 50 a 599 4 Fig. 4 1960 a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e / 10 a 300 mm mm f d Spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of precipitation process in East China during a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s and e 2000s Contours show the 10-yr mean intensity of extreme events of precipitation process with the units of mm and the shadings denote the magnitude bigger than 300 mm and f spatial distribution of mean rainy days units d of extreme events of precipitation process in East China 2000 1960 2009 50 a 20 a 20 a 3 d 2 3 1 3 d 1960 1970 1980 1960 1990 2000 1 2 1990
600 35 5 Fig. 5 1960 a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e / 10 a 200 mm mm Spatial distributions of occurrence frequency 10 a - 1 and mean intensity of the extreme events of continuous rainy days in East China in a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s and e 2000s Contours show the 10- yr mean intensity of precipitation for the extreme events with the units of mm and the shadings denote the value greater than 200 mm 3 d 1990 30 a 3 1960 1970 1980 1980 1990 2 1 20 a 3 2000 50 a 3 4 30 a 1990 1960 1970 1980
5 50 a 601 6 Fig. 6 1960 a 1970 b 1980 c 1990 d 2000 e d Distributions of mean rainy days of the extreme events of continuous rainy days in East China in a 1960s b 1970s c 1980s d 1990s and e 2000s units d 1990 2010 2 9 d 9 d 3 3 d 3 50 a
602 35 3 3 144-148. J 27 2 244-252. GrADS Grid Analysis and Display System Groisman P Y Karl T R Easterling D R et al. 1999. Changes in the. 2007. 50 probability of heavy precipitation Important indicators of climatic J. 31 5 779-792. change J. Climatic Change 42 1 243-283. doi 10. 1023 /. 2008. A 1005432803188. J. 51 2 352-359. Jones C Waliser D E Lau K M et al. 2004. Global occurrences of extreme precipitation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation Observations. 1999. J. 18 4 465-476. and predictability J. J Climate 17 4575-4589.. 2010. 50 Karl T R Knight R W. 1998. Secular trends of precipitation amount frequency and intensity in the USA J. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 79 J. 34 5 947-961.. 2004. 231-241. J. 20 1 73-80. Manton M J Della-Marta P M Haylock M R et al. 2001. Trend in extreme daily rainfall and temperature in Southeast Asia and South. 2005. J. 41 6 577-589. Pacific 1961 1998 J. Int J Climatol 21 269-284.. 2010. Plummer N Salinger M J Nicholls N et al. 1999. Changes in climate J. 15 4 337-353. extremes over the Australian region and New Zealand during the. 2010. 1960 ~ 2008 J. twentieth century J. Climatic Change 42 1 183-202. 15 4 462-469. Qian W Lin X. 2005. Regional trends in recent precipitation indices in. 2006. 1960 2004 China J. Meteor Atmos Phys 90 193-207. J. 2 1 9-14. Stone D A Weaver A J Zwiers F W. 2000. Trends in Canadian precipitation intensity J. Atmos-Ocean 28 2 321-347. doi. 1996. 40 J. 20 5 575-583. 10. 1080 /07055900. 2000. 9649651.. 2009. Yamamoto R Sakurai Y. 1999. Long-term intensification of extremely J. 33 5 1047-1057. heavy rainfall intensity in recent 100 years J. World Resource Review 11 271-281.. 2008. 1960 2005 J. 28 4 384-388. Zhai P M Zhang X B Wan H et al. 2005. Trends in total precipitation. 2009. J. and frequency of daily precipitation extremes J. J Climate 18 20 1 1-9. 1096-1198.. 2008. Zhang Y S Li T Wang B. 2004. Decadal change of the spring snow J. 13 1 75-83. depth over the Tibetan Plateau The associated circulation and influence on the East Asian summer monsoon J. J Climate 17. 2010. SSTA J. 32 1 23-33. 2780-2793.. 2010. J. 15 4 365-370.. 1999. J. 57 2 208-216.. 2007. J.. 2001. J. 59 5 569-577.. 2004... 2009. J. 45 1 99-109. Alexander L V Zhang X Peterson T C et al. 2006. Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation J. J Geophy Res 111 D05109. doi. 10. 1029 /2005JD006290.