櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒 36 6 2012 11 Vol. 36 No. 6 November 2012 27 Population Research 櫒 1958 60 55
櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒 28 36 櫒 1 1. 1 2002 ~ 2027 25 65 67 2010 ~ 2020 65 2024 ~ 2046 68 2018 65 2050 68 2012 ~ 2029 65 67 2018 60 62 2013 ~ 2025 2018 ~ 2030 60 65 60 2013 61 2033 65 2012 1. 2 2011 60 1. 85 13. 7% UN 2012 60 2014 2 2026 3 2040 4 2055 4. 4 2025 20. 2% 2045 30% 2050 33. 9% 2075
6 29 36. 8% 36% 15 ~ 59 2011 9. 4 70. 1% 2025 9 65% 2040 8 57% 2050 7 53% 74. 9 2050 79. 5 1990 ~ 2010 2011 965. 3 6305 553. 2% 17. 5% 103. 6% 30 4 1990 1. 49% 5. 66% 2010 8. 29% 18. 18% 20 50 60 ~ 70 80 20 90 2 2. 1 1994 16 16 2. 2 1951 60 50 1955 55 1978 1978 104 1978
30 36 1 60 55 10 2 50 45 10 3 1 60 50 10 2 55 45 10 3 50 45 10 4 1999 1999 10 1999 1999 8 1999 60 50 55 55 45 50 45 60 55 45 16 ~ 60 40 16 ~ 55 3 3. 1 1 2015 60 30 60 65 2 2045 65 2 0 ~ 15 16 ~ 60 61 0 ~ 15 16 3. 2 2012 3. 3 1 1 0 ~ 15 2010 17. 9% 2020 19. 6% 2042 15% 15% ~ 17% 60 2010 16 ~ 60 69. 8% 2018 64. 5% 2027 60% 2052 50% 50% ~ 52% 60% 2048 56%
6 31 Figure 1 1 Comparing Age Structure before and after Raising Retirement Age 61 2010 12. 3% 2026 20% 2045 30% 2055 33. 7% 30% ~ 33% 2031 20% 5 27. 6% 2060 6. 1 18 69 13 17 50 33 16 52 32 17 59 24 16 57 27 2 2 Figure 2 Working - age Population before and after Raising Retirement Age 2 2015 ~ 2045 30 15. 56 300 20 ~ 30 1959 ~ 1961 900 16 ~ 60 2010 9. 4 9 2036 60 13 2037 ~ 2053 8 ~ 9 2015 282 2 1 5 3
32 36 61 2015 2. 04 2045 4. 31 2. 27 2. 49% 2053 4. 68 2015 ~ 2045 2. 04 3. 39 1. 35 1. 69% 0. 92 0. 80 2. 57 3. 72 4 1 60 60 2023 2028 5 100 1 1 + 70 ~ 80 potential support ratio1 5. 5 2030 2. 5 1. 5 2030 2050 3. 2 2. 5 Table 1 1 Dependency Ratios before and after Raising Retirement Age 2010 25. 68 17. 56 43. 24 25. 68 17. 56 43. 24 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 2015 27. 06 21. 95 49. 01 27. 06 21. 95 49. 01 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 2020 30. 84 26. 67 57. 51 30. 46 25. 13 55. 59 0. 38 1. 54 1. 92 2025 32. 29 32. 14 64. 43 30. 97 26. 74 57. 71 1. 32 5. 40 6. 72 2030 31. 09 40. 65 71. 75 29. 06 31. 48 60. 54 2. 03 9. 18 11. 21 2035 27. 67 48. 09 75. 76 25. 39 35. 87 61. 26 2. 28 12. 21 14. 49 2040 26. 50 51. 62 78. 12 24. 22 38. 56 62. 78 2. 28 13. 06 15. 34 2045 28. 56 55. 13 83. 69 25. 56 38. 81 64. 37 3. 00 16. 32 19. 32 2050 32. 33 63. 47 95. 80 27. 89 40. 98 68. 86 4. 45 22. 49 26. 94 2055 33. 87 68. 15 102. 02 29. 51 46. 50 76. 01 4. 36 21. 65 26. 02 2060 31. 83 65. 26 97. 09 28. 70 49. 02 77. 72 3. 13 16. 24 19. 37 2065 29. 39 60. 49 89. 88 26. 84 46. 55 73. 39 2. 55 13. 94 16. 49 2070 28. 96 57. 83 86. 79 26. 26 43. 12 69. 38 2. 70 14. 70 17. 40 2075 30. 55 59. 05 89. 60 27. 10 41. 09 68. 19 3. 45 17. 96 21. 41 2080 32. 70 63. 81 96. 51 28. 36 42. 07 70. 43 4. 34 21. 74 26. 08 2085 32. 92 65. 78 98. 71 29. 04 46. 22 75. 26 3. 89 19. 56 23. 45 2090 31. 53 64. 78 96. 30 28. 40 48. 44 76. 85 3. 12 16. 33 19. 46 2095 30. 31 63. 18 93. 48 27. 48 47. 97 75. 46 2. 82 15. 20 18. 03 2100 30. 37 62. 93 93. 29 27. 30 46. 46 73. 76 3. 07 16. 47 19. 54 5 40 2010 40. 6% 2023 50% 2033 55% 51% ~
6 33 53% 60 4 ~ 8 6 20 50 45 45 16 ~ 60 40 16 ~ 55 100 90 = 100 74. 9 56 ~ 62 79 ~ 80 60 50 100 65 50 60 4 1 2 20 50 60 3 3 ~ 5 4 5 2. 3 2030 60 ~ 65
櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒 34 36 櫒櫒 1 20 80 2002 60% 2 20 90 2003 2004 2009 2011 1 20 50 1978 104 3 60 55 50 1990 1992 60 50 55 60 60 5 1 2 3 10@ ZH020 2005 5 93 ~ 98 1978 104
6 35 2 2010 18 ~ 64 94780 3901 / 1025 2852 24 64 2. 1 3901 35 ~ 64 37. 99% 62. 01% 59. 20 56. 08 1 7. 19% 50 36. 04% 55 49 5. 69% 50 ~ 54 74. 18% 55 ~ 59 94. 59% 49 50 ~ 54 55 ~ 59 3 8. 25 5. 35 2. 13 Table 1 1 Age Distribution of the Retirees and Percentage of the Retirees in the Total Population by Age Group % N = 3901 % N = 12309 49 7. 19 1. 75 5. 69 0. 69 50 ~ 54 28. 85 9. 85 74. 18 13. 87 55 ~ 59 37. 62 30. 63 94. 59 44. 34 60 26. 33 57. 76 100. 00 96. 83 100. 00 100. 00 χ 2 0. 000 0. 005 2010 9. 38 0. 05 10. 25 0. 06 68. 88% / 1 1. 94% 0. 45% 41. 17% 56. 43% 2 1
36 36 1 /4 1 /3 33. 54% 56. 34% 4 15. 22 4. 79 13. 35 28. 98 Table 2 2 Distribution of the Respondents by Occupation and Administrative Post % % 1. 94 2. 43 26. 26 11. 04 0. 45 3. 37 34. 38 29. 59 41. 17 57. 56 33. 54 20. 19 56. 43 36. 64 56. 34 27. 36 100. 00 100. 00 χ 2 0. 000 0. 000 35 ~ 64 64. 13% 61. 92% 90. 24% 9. 76% 1. 54 2. 2 3 1 1 49. 50 Figure 1 Actual Retirement Age of Retirees by Education Level 50 / 48. 98 49. 58 51. 65 1 49. 54 49. 19 50 2 52. 54 53. 56 50. 09 48. 98 2 7. 46 6. 44 4. 91 1. 02 55 2. 46 1. 44 55 50. 00% 22. 22% 60 50. 09 55 55 77. 57%
6 37 Figure 2 2 Actual Retirement Age of Retirees by Occupation and Administrative Post 3 5. 75 5. 36 5. 61 5. 54 2 50 3 Figure 3 Cumulative Percentage of Retirees by Retirement Age and Sex 1 /5 55 98% 57. 73% 50 49 52. 31% 55 54 13. 38% 34. 24% 60 59 3 2. 3 1 1 4 Figure 4 Cumulative Percentage of Retirees by Length of Service and Sex 19. 63 19. 64 29. 79 5. 82 31. 53 4. 50 4 30 35 38. 84% 87. 70% 1
38 36 35 12. 30% 11. 94% 36. 51% 63. 49% 1 Table 4 2 4 Pension of Retirees by Occupation and Administrative Post 19875. 27 6265. 20 and by Education Yuan % / 28115. 38 28980. 00 97. 02 41555. 56 52242. 00 79. 54 23208. 27 29131. 72 79. 67 17087. 17 20720. 38 82. 47 19875. 27 26140. 47 76. 03 15689. 51 18765. 65 83. 61 / 20228. 26 24396. 16 82. 92 38137. 82 50739. 83 75. 16 19875. 27 26140. 47 76. 03 79. 54% 10686. 44 75. 16% 4 3 16. 69 5. 80 18. 19 8. 40 3 2 60 1 2 35 90% 30 ~ 35 85% 20 ~ 30 80% 2010 77. 37 72. 38
櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒 6 39 櫒 1 1 65 66 2004 2012 2 2. 1 5 50% 2001 1 10JJD840006
40 36 11 1 1 11 313. 2 1309. 6 949. 5 Table 1 1 Change of Basic Old - age Insurance by Year 2001 10802 3381 2489 2321 2002 11128 3333 3171. 5 2842. 9 2003 11646 3860 3680 3122 2004 12250 4103 4258 3502 2005 13120 4367 5093 4040 2006 14131 4635 6310 4897 2007 15183 4954 7834 5965 2008 16587 5304 9740 7390 2009 17743 5807 11491 8894 2010 19402 6305 13420 10555 2011 21565 6826 16895 12765 978. 5 313. 2 1309. 6 949. 5 2006 ~ 2011 17435. 17 5638. 5 10948. 33 8411 2006 ~ 2011 1239 365. 2 1764. 2 1311. 3. http / /www. mohrss. gov. cn /page. do pa = 40288020246a7c6601246ad9ea22032f 11 313. 2 313. 2 2005 10% 2006 ~ 2011 1 2006 ~ 2011 6 8411 10% 8411-841. 1 = 7569. 9 6 365. 2 7569. 9 /0. 56385* 0. 03652 = 490. 29 6 490. 29 2006 20% 8% 10948. 33 /1. 743517* 0. 03652 = 229. 33 490. 29 + 229. 33 = 719. 62
6 41 719. 62 2006 ~ 2011 2012 1 ~ 5 2 1 365. 2 490. 29 229. 33 719. 62 Table 2 2 1 ~ 5 Influence on Amount and Balance of Pensions by Raising Retirement Age by 1 ~ 5 Years 1 365. 2 490. 29 229. 33 719. 62 2 730. 4 980. 58 458. 66 1439. 24 3 1095. 6 1470. 87 687. 99 2158. 86 4 1460. 8 1961. 16 917. 32 2878. 48 5 1826. 0 2451. 45 1146. 65 3598. 10 5 1 2 2. 2 15 2006 = + = + 2 1% = 0. 6 3 = 50 195 55 170 60 139 2010 36539 3045 3000 2. 2. 1 = 3000 + 3000 2 1% 3 3 1 30 5 150 3 3 2. 2. 2
42 36 8% W 1 + r n + 1 + g 1 + r n - 1 + + 1 + g n - 1 1 + r 8% W 1 + g n n Table 3 3 15 1 ~ 5 / Fundamental Pensions after Paying for 15 Years and Raising Retirement Age by 1 ~ 5 Years yuan /month 0. 6 1 3 15 360 450 900 16 384 480 960 17 408 510 1020 18 432 540 1080 19 456 570 1140 20 480 600 1200 5% 2010 3000 1 60 2011 5% 4 Table 4 4 Monthly Pensions and Accumulative Total in Personal Account with Different Time Period of Payment 1 ~ 5 139 + 5 % 1 / 2 63020. 25 3 / 4 6 / 5 7 = 4-2 8 15 89809. 70 646. 11-1096. 11-17. 58 450 62550 16 100586. 86 723. 65 10777. 16 1107. 65 11. 54 16. 91 384 48768 17 112217. 22 807. 32 11630. 36 1215. 32 119. 21 17. 67 408 46920 18 124759. 14 897. 55 12541. 92 1329. 55 233. 44 18. 42 432 44496 19 138274. 72 994. 78 13515. 58 1450. 78 354. 67 19. 14 456 41496 20 152829. 95 1099. 50 14555. 23 1579. 50 483. 39 19. 84 480 37920 30 373415. 82 2686. 45 220585. 87 3586. 45 27. 66 900 125100 15 8% 36000 1 + 5% 15 15 3 1 4 15 139 60 1 61 2 62 139 4 8
櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒櫒 6 43 3 6 1 490. 29 229. 33 719. 62 2005 1% 47. 43 53. 47 2011 10 ~ 20 8 櫒
44 36 1 2 3 /References 1.. http / /forum. home. news. cn /thread /99775567 /1. html 2012-06 - 14 Jin Chengse. 2012. The Table of Mandatory Age for Retirement of Selected Countries. http / /forum. home. news. cn / thread /99775567 /1. html June 14. 2. 2010. http / /esa. un. org /unpd /wpp /index. htm 2012-06 - 18 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of UN. 2012. World Population Prospects The 2010 Revision. http / /esa. un. org /unpd /wpp /index. htm June 18. 3. 2011. 2011. http / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjsj /ndsj /2011 /indexch. htm 2012-06 - 14 National Bureau of Statistics. 2012. China Statistics Yearbook 2011. Beijing China Statistics Press http / /www. stats. gov. cn /tjsj /ndsj /2011 /indexch. htm June 14. 4.. 1978. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = 2557834 2012-06 - 17 The Sate Council. 1978. The Interim Procedures for Resettling the Old Weak Sick and Disabled Cadres and The Interim Procedures for Retirement of Workers. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = 2557834 2012-06 - 17 5.. 1999. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = 2560615 2012-06 - 17 General Office of the State Council. 1999. The Announcement for Further Improving Basic Living Security for Laid - off Workers and Pension Payment for Retired Workers of the State - owned Enterprises. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = 2560615 2012-06 - 17. 6.. 1999. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = 2560632 2012-06 - 17 Ministry of Labor and Social Security. 1999. The Announcement for Curbing and Correcting the Deregulation Behaviors of Processing Early Retirement. http / /law. people. com. cn /showdetail. action id = 2560632 2012-06 - 17. 7.. 2003 2 25-30 Peng Xizhe. Social Policy and Gender Equality with the Analysis of China's Pension System as an Example. Collection of Women s Studies 2003 2 25-30. 8.. 2004 1 28-31
6 45 Chen Weimin and Li Ying. 2004. The Impacts of the Retirement Age on the Sexual Difference in Old - age Pension among China s Urban Employees. Collection of Women s Studies 1 28-31. 9.. 2009 6 32-37 Gao Qingbo and Deng Han. 2009. On Women's Statutory Pensionable Age in China. Collection of Women s Studies 6 32-37. 10. / 2011 3 22-30 Retirement Age Research Team. 2011. Why Do Women and Men Agree or Disagree with Retirement at Same Age Collection of Women s Studies 3 22-30. 11.. 2004 4 23-25 Liu Qingrui and Miao Hongjun. 2004. Study on Delaying Retirement Age in the Context of Population Ageing in China. Population Journal 4 23-25. 12.. 2001 221 Li Zhen. 2001. Social Society Theory. Beijing Chinese Labour Social Security Publishing House 221. 13.. 2011 57 Cui Hongwei. 2011. Study on Retirement Age of China in the Context of Population Ageing. PhD Thesis of Renmin University of China 57. On Raising Retirement Age Abstract China is rapidly ageing. Working - age population will be declining and demand and cost for old - age support increasing. Raising retirement age has been proposed to be an approach to addressing the ageing challenge being a central theme of the recent hot debate over China s pension gap. While raising retirement age will not change anything with regard to China s population size and structure it will expand labour force population. If retirement age were to increase from 60 to 65 in the next 30 years working - age population would have an annual increment of 3 million people thus helping relieve the ageing pressure and prolong the demographic dividend. Raising retirement age could enlarge national pension fund stocking which helps ease the government s payment pressure and reduce future pension risk but it could also reduce individual rate of return. Since retirement age is different for males and females retirement policy needs to be adjusted to equalize the retirement age between the two sexes. However retirement policy adjustment must be preceded with great caution in a best manner and at a best time. Keywords Population Ageing Raising Retirement Age Pension Retirement Policy Authors Yao Yuan is Professor Center for Population and Development Studies Renmin University of China Yuan Xin is Professor Economics College Nankai University Tan Lin is Professor Institute of Women s Studies All - China Women s Federation and Jiang Xiangqun is Professor Institute of Gerontology Renmin University of China. 2012-11