2 : 235 [17] ( ) 70 [18~20] [21] [22] [23] [2425] [26] [27] 31 ( ) 1 [13] [28] : CV vw = n i=1 槡 (Y i - Y) 珚 2 (P i /P ) 珚 Y

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1 GEOGRAPHICAL RESEARCH Vol.31No.2 Feb.2012 ( ) : 1978~ ~ ;1987 ; ;1987 GDP ;2008 GDP : ; ;Mann-Kendal ; ; : (2012) [1~8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] : ; : : ( ); (BR ); (08KJD170004); (11KJB170003) : (1970-) guanweihua@njnu.edu.cn

2 2 : 235 [17] ( ) 70 [18~20] [21] [22] [23] [2425] [26] [27] 31 ( ) 1 [13] [28] : CV vw = n i=1 槡 (Y i - Y) 珚 2 (P i /P ) 珚 Y (1) N T = (P i /P) log( 珚 Y/Y i ) (2) i=1 CV vw T Y i i 珚 Y Y i N i P i i P CV vw T 1

3 (1978~2008) Fig.1 ThechangesofregionaldiferencesofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChina sincethereformandopeningup (1978~2008) 2 Mann-Kendal 1978~2008 Mann-Kendal {x 1 x 2 x n } UF i UB i UF UB 0 ; 0 ( ) UF UB [29] Mann-Kendal 1978~2008 α= 0.01 U 0.01=±2.58 Mann-Kendal ( 2) Mann-Kendal ( 3) 2 3 UF UB ~ ~ Fig.2 Mann-Kendal ( α= 0.01 ) Mann-Kendalstatisticcurveofweightedvariationcoeficientofregionaldiferences ofsocialconsumptionlevelsinchinasincethereformandopeningup

4 2 : Fig.3 Mann-Kendal ( α= 0.01 ) Mann-KendalstatisticcurveofTaylorcoeficientofregionaldiferencesof socialconsumptionlevelsinchinasincethereformandopeningup [30] SPSS ( 1) 1978 ( 4) Tab.1 TheregionalclasificationofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain

5 Fig.4 RegionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain Tab.2 TheregionalclasificationofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain

6 2 : Fig.5 RegionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain Tab.3 TheregionalclasificationofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain

7 Fig.6 RegionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelsinChinain [31] ( ) ; ;

8 2 : 241 [17] [32] [33] [34] [35] (Y) GDP (X 1 ) GDP (X 2 ) (X 3 ) (X 4 ) (X 5 ) (X 6 ) (X 7 ) (X 8 ) (X 9 ) (X 10 ) (X 11 ) (X 12 ) (X 13 X 14 X 15 ) [36] [22] : T 槡 = T p Tt (3) A T T p T t A : Y =2.044X X X (4) (R 2 = % ) Y =0.488X X X (5) (R 2 = % ) Y =0.206X X X (6) (R 2 = % ) (4) 1978

9 (5) 1987 GDP ; ; GDP (6) 2008 GDP GDP 5 : (1) (2) 1978 ~ ~2008 (3) (4) GDP 2008 GDP

10 2 : 243 : [1] FriedmanE.Maoismandtheliberationofthepoor.WorldPolitics198739(3):408~428. [2] TsuiK Y.Chinasregionalinequality1952~1985.JournalofComparativeEconomics199115(1):1~21. [3] WeiYehua.RegionalinequalityinChina.Progressin HumanGeography199923(1):49~59. [4] FujitaMHuD.RegionaldisparityinChina1985~1994:Theefectsofglobalizationandeconomicliberalization. TheAnnalsofRegionalScience200135(1):3~37. [5] YingLG.UnderstandingChina'srecentgrowthexperience:Aspatialeconometricperspective.AnnalsofRegional Sciences200337(4):613~628. [6] (1):57~68. [7] (4):710~718. [8] (6):1255~1264. [9]. 2003(3):19~25. [10] (6):701~708. [11]. 2004(1):33~44. [12]. 2004(5):117~129. [13]. 2006(7):117~125. [14]. : (4):303~307. [15]. :. : 2009(12):89~93. [16]. (1952~1995) (2):28~32. [17]. : ~98. [18] (3):276~281. [19]. 2008(1):102~106. [20] (3):415~418. [21] (2):63~67. [22]. 2009(10):175~178. [23]. 2008(7):27~33. [24] (2):84~89. [25] (3):213~222. [26]. 2005(2):13~14. [27]. 2009(13):225. [28] (4):693~704. [29]. : ~106. [30].SPSS10.0. : ~334. [31]. 2007(12):35~37. [32]. 2009(3):5~8. [33] (2):27~30. [34] (8):13~16. [35]. 2008(2):99~103. [36]. :

11 Studyontheregionalpaternchangeofsocialconsumption levelsinchinasincethereformandopeningup GUAN Wei-huaZHOUJingLU Yu-qi (SchoolofGeographicalSciencesNanjingNormalUniversityNanjing210046China) provementofsocialistmarketeconomyandtherapiddevelopmentofcommoditycirculation inchinathescaleofsocialconsumptionhasbeengreatlyimproved.atthesametime Abstract:Sincethereformandopeningupstartedin1978withtheestablishmentandim- somethingsarechangingsuchastheregionaldiferencesofconsumptionlevelsandthe regionalconsumptionpaternswhichresultsfromthediferences.inthispaperwefirstly analyzethediferencesofsocialconsumptionlevelsbetweenprovincesinchinasincethe reformandopeningupbasedonthevariationcoeficientand Taylor'sindexandindicate thatsince1978thediferenceofsocialconsumptionlevelsbetweenprovincesinchinain generalpresents wideningtrendbuttherearesomefluctuations.bytheanalysisof change-pointbasedon Mann-Kendalmethodsincereformandopeningupthediferences' changesofsocialconsumptionlevelsinchinacanbedividedintotwophasesfrom1978to 1987andfrom 1987to2008.Usingtheclusteranddiscriminateanalysis methodswe comparetheregionalpaternsofsocialconsumptionlevelsin Chinain and 2008.Theresultsareasfolows:in1978thesocialconsumptionlevelsin Chinahad prominentnorth-southregionaldiference;in1987thesocialconsumptionlevelinchina notonlyhadnorth-southdiferencebutalsohadeast-westdiference;in2008thesocial consumptionlevelinchinaingeneralpresentseast-middle-westdiferencesinthepatern ofladder.wecanfindthattheregionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevelhasbeenshif- tedfrom north-southdiferencetoeast-westdiference.finalywestudysuchindexes whichareinconnectionwiththeregionalsocialconsumptionlevelasthepopulationeco- nomicdevelopmentlevelandinvestmentinfixedassetsincomelevelsavingsfinancial levelstraficconvenienceandindustrialstructure.bystepwiseregressionanalysiswe analyzetheformationmechanismofregionalconsumptionpaternsinchinain and2008.theresultsareasfolows:in1978regionalpaternofsocialconsumptionlevel wasmainlyafectedbypercapitasavingsofurbanandruralresidentspercapitaexpendi- tureandtheproportionofprimaryindustryoutputvalue;in1987itwasmainlyafected bypercapita GDPtransportaccessibilitylevelsandtheproportionoftertiaryindustry outputvalue;in2008itwasmainlyafectedbypercapitagdppercapitaincomeandper capitasavingsofurbanandruralresidents. Key words:socialconsumptionlevel;regionalpatern change; Mann-Kendal method; mechanism;china

第六章中国中等收入者调查的三个发现

第六章中国中等收入者调查的三个发现 1999 2003 1. 3 2. - 1 - 3. 4. 4 6-2 - 4 8000 ~50000 2002 18% 2.5 ~3 7.5 ~10 2003 6 22.83 48.5% 15 ~30 30 2 18% 60% 50%~60% 40%~50% 40% GDP 3000, 50% 2001 2020 GDP 3 1. 2002-3 - 1 3000 8000 8000 ~25000