096THU DOC

Transcription

1 1997 (High Pathogenic Avian Influenza HPAI H5N1) Shortridge Wang et al FAO 2005 Migration Stallknecht Wetland International 2002 Lane(1987) (Anseriformes)(Charadriiformes HPAIV H5N

2 WHO(World Health Organization WHO 2008 IBA 2007 Overlap Share habitat (Free-range) H5 H7 15 2

3 (Avian Influenza AI) 1878 Edoardo Perroncito (Fowl Plague, Fowl Pest) Schafer A OrthomyxoviridaeA (European Commission EC 2000) ( Hemagglutinin, HA) (Neuraminidase, NA) (subtypes) (Webster et al. 1992; Webster et al. 2006) HPAIV LPAIV (LPAIV, Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses) (HPAIV, High Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses) 100%(Alexander 2000) () H5H7 H5H7 16HA9NA 10 HPAIV (Anseriformes) (Charadriiformes) (Ciconiformes) (Passeriformes)(Suss et al. 1994) Sharp et al.(1997) 3

4 Animal Health Australia 2003 HPAIV ~ H5N1 Olsen et al Slemons et al. 1974; Stallknecht and Shane 1988; Webster et al.1992; Stallknecht 1997; Webby and Webster 2003; Krause et al. 2004; Webster and Hulse 2005 (BirdLife 2006 Hinshaw et al. 1980; Ito et al. 1995; Hansonet al ( Anseriformes ) ( Charadriiformes ) (Kawaoka et al

5 Stallknecht and Shane 21, (10.9%) (Passeriformes)2.9% (Charadriiformes)2.2% HPAIV HPAIV 30 Hinshaw et al., 1979; Sandu and Hinshaw, 1981; Sinnecker et al., 1983 Li et al. 2004; Chen et al. 2005) 1979 Starling Alexander et al Alexander 2000 (WHO 2007)

6 (Higher Risk Species) 2006 DAF(Department of Agriculture and Food) NPWS(National Parks and Wildlife Service) (Anseriformes) (Charadriiformes)

7 1. HPAIV H5N1 2. HPAIV H5N EFSA(European Food Safety Authority) HPAIV H5N1 HPAIV Group size (Large) Eurasian Wigeon (Medium) Whooper Swan (Small) Purple Sandpiper (Solitary) 7

8 Green Sandpiper Group density (High) 2 (Dunlin) (Medium) 2-5 (Herring Gull) (Large) 5 (Common Snipe) (Solitary) Degree of mixing H5N1 HPAIV (High) Eurasian Wigeon (Medium) Northern Lapwing 8

9 (Low) Temminck's Stint (Solitary) (Common Sandpiper) Main habitat H5N1 HPAIV (A)Agricultural land (W)Water pond (G)Grass land (F)Fishpond (Bridge Species) (Bridge Species) 9

10 H5N1 HPAIV High contact Medium contact Low contact 10

11 Important Bird Area IBA 1,242 10,219 12% 1,565 1,390 1,

12 (Poultry farm) PF-P(Pretest) PF-P

13 ( PF-1PF-2PF-3PF-4PF-5PF-6PF-7PF- PF-1( PF-P) Higher Risk Species HRS European Food Safety Authority EFSA2006 Migratory Birds and their Possible Role in the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza ( ) HPAIV

14 4 4 () (Gregariousness during wintering/migration period) (1) (Group size) (Large)1000 Score4 (Medium)1000 Score3 (Small)10-100Score2 (Solitary)1-10Score1 (2) Group density 4 (High) 2 Score4 (Medium) 25 Score3 (Small) 5 Score2 (Solitary) Score1 () Degree of mixing 4 14

15 (High) 5 Score4 (Medium) 3-5 Score3 (Low) 1-3 Score2 (Solitary) Score1 () (Main habitat use) 3 (Agricultural land, Grass land)score3 (water pond)score2 (Sea wall)score1 Distance to poultry farm 3 (1) (1.5) (2) Ex1 (Lapwing) Small(S)2 Medium(M)3 Low(L)2 Agriculture(A)4 HPAIV ( ) 1.5=

16 Ex2 (Dunlin) (S)4 (M)4 (M)4 (A)1 1 HPAIV ( ) 1=13 Ex3 (Green-winged Teal) (S)3 (M)3 (M)2 (A)2 2 HPAIV ( ) 2=20 European Food Safety Authority EFSA2006 Migratory Birds and their Possible Role in the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza High contact Medium contact Low contact 16

17 ( ) ( ) (non-migratory species) (8 ) Excel SPSS10.0 for Windows One-Way ANOVA 8 5 ( One-Way ANOVA PF-1PF-2PF-3PF-4 PF-5PF-6PF-7PF- 17

18 (12-2 ) (3-6 (7-11 ) (n=13422) 80% (n=9476)73% (n=2642)97% 12 2 (n=510)95% (

19 PF-P %(n=2484) 24%(n=1186) 10%(n=509) 10%(n=500) 2%(n=97) 1.8%(n=79) 1%(n=47) 0.12%(n=6) 0.04%(n=2) PF

20 One-Way ANOVA F =0.329; p= , n=2 days F=0.702; p= , n=2 days PF-1 8 (PF-1PF-2PF-3PF-4PF-5PF-6PF-7 PF-8) ( ) PF-7 20

21 4 ( ) (medium) 2-5 (medium) 3 (small) (medium)

22 22 (medium)

23

24 PF-1PF-5 PF-8 5

25 %(n=510) 23% 17% 5% 1~2 10~12 3~5 12 7~ n= n=592 (Sinnecker et al. 1982Halvorson et al. 1985) (juvenile) (adult) (Deibel et al. 1985; Hinshaw et al. 1985, 1986) 25

26 (physiologic activities) (Wang et al. 2008) HPAIV Thomas et al.(2007) (Bar-tailed godwit) (stopover) 26

27 HPAIV Deible(1985) Munster(2007) 2 (Black-headed gull) AI 27

28 (EFSA 2005) (1993) (n=2) (2005) Sanzenbacher (2002)and Haig(

29 29

30 30 (Ranking) (USGS 2006) (Score17) 5(Rank:1-5)

31 31 () (2002) () (Heronry) PF-7

32 (Mobility) () 8 PF-7 7 PF-PF-2PF-3 PF-8 PF-7 PF-7 PF-5 PF PF-5 PF

33 33 HPAIV Wetland International 2007 (EFSA)2006 () HPAIV (Ilaria 2006) (Biosecurity

34 34 HPAIV (ecological fallacy) Early warming system (hot spot)

35 Alexander DJ A review of avian influenza in different bird species. Veterinary Microbiology 74: AHAW Scientific Opinion on Migratory Birds and their Possible Role in the spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza. EFSA Journal, 357:1-46. Alexander DJ, Allan WH, Parsons DG, Parsons G, The pathogenicity of four avian influenza viruses for fowls, turkeys and ducks. Res Vet Science 24: Adrianus C. M. Boon, Matthew R. Sandbulte, Patrick Seiler, Richard J. Webby, Thaweesak Songserm, Yi Guan, and Robert G. Webber Role of Terrestrial Wild Birds in Ecology of Influenza A Virus(H5N1). Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(11): Baillie, SR Uses of ringing data for the conservation and management of bird populations: a ringing scheme perspective. Journal of Applied Statistics 22: Bairlein, F Results of bird ringing in the study of migration routes. Ardea 89 (Special Issue): Bjorn Olsen, Vincent J. Munster, Anders Wallensten, Jonas Waldenstrom, Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus, Ron A. M. Fouchier Global Patterns of Influenza A Virus in Wild Birds. Science 312: Chwan-Chuen King, Chuan-Liang Kao, Ding-Ping Liu, Min-Chu Cheng e, Hui-Lin Yen, Min-Shiuh Lee, Ching-Ping Tsai, Shin-Ru Shih, Happy K. Shieh, Jen-Pang Hsiu, Shu-Fang Li, Hour-Young Chen, Hsu-Mei Hsu, Shing-Jer Twu, Nancy J. Cox, Robert G. Webster. Seven integrated surveillance systems in Taiwan International Congress Series(1219): C J Feare Fish farming and the risk of spread of avian influenza. BirdLife International: 35

36 Chen H, Smith GJD, Zhang SY, Qin K,Wang J, Li KS,Webster RG, Peiris JSM, Guan Y H5N1 virus outbreak in migratory waterfowl. Nature436: Dennis Normile Evidence Points to Migratory in H5N1 Spread. Science 311:1225. Delany, S., J. Veen & J. Clark, Eds Urgent preliminary assessment of ornithological data relevant to the spread of Avian Influenza in Europe. EU-DG Environment, Brussels. ian_influenza/pdf/avian_influenza_report.pdf. Gauthier-Clerc, M., Lebarbenchon, C., Thomas F Recent expansion of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1a critical review IBIS 149: Humphrey Q P Crick, Philip W Atkinson, Stuart E Newson, Robert A Robinson, Lucy Snow, Dawn E Balmer, Dan E Chamberlain, Jacquie A Clark, Nigel A Clark, Peter A Cranswick, Ruth L Cromie, Baz Hughes, Mark J Grantham, Rebecca Lee & Andrew J Musgrove Avian Influenza Incursion Analysis (through wild birds). BTO Research Report: 448. Ilaria Capua and Stefano Marangon Control of Avian Influenza in Poultry. Emerging Infectious Diseases. 12(9): John P Tracey, Rupert Woods, David Roshier, Peter West, and Glen R. Saunder The role of wild birds in the transmission of avian influenza for Australia: an ecological perspective. Emu 104: Kilpartrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleisher RC, Marra PP, and Daszak P Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. NCBI 103(51): Katharine M. Sturm-Ramirez, Trevor Ellis, Barry Bousfield, Lucy Bissett, Kitman Dyrting, Jerold E. Rehg, Leo Poon, Yi Guan, Malik Peiris, and Robert G. Webster Reemerging H5N1 Influenza Viruses in Hong Kong in 2002 Are Highly Pathogenic to Ducks. Virology 78: Kevin Winker, Kevin G.McCracken, Daniel D. Gibson, Christin L. Pruett, Rose Meier, 36

37 Falk Huettmann, Michael Wege, Irina V. Kulikova, Yuri N. Zhuravlev, Michael L. Perdue, Erica Spackman, David L.Suarez, and David E. Swayne Movements of Birds and Avian Influenza from Asia into Alaska. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(4): Liu J, Xiao H, Lei F, Zhu Q, Qin K, Zhang X-w, et al. Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus infection in migratory birds. Science. 2005;309:1206. Larry Clark and Jeffery Hall Avian Influenza in Wild Birds: Status as Reservoirs, and Risk to Humans and Agriculture. Ornithological Monographs 60: K. S. Li, Y. Guan, J. Wang, G. J. D. Smith, K. M. Xu, L. Duan, A. P. Rahardjo, P. Puthavathana, C. Buranathai, T. D. Nguyen, A. T. S. Estoepangestie, A. Chaisingh, P. Auewarakul, H. T. Long, N. T. H. Hanh, R. J. Webby, L. L. M. Poon, H. Chen, K. F. Shortridge, K. Y. Yuen, R. G. Webster & J. S. M. Peiris Genesis of a highly pathogenic and potentially pandemic H5N1 influenza virus in eastern Asia. Nature 430: Yasue. Mai, Feare. Chris J, Bennun Leon, Fiedler, Wolfgang The Epidemiology of H5N1 Avian Influenza in Wild BirdsWhy We Need Better Ecological Date. BioScience 56: Martin, V., A. Forman, and J. Lubroth Preparing for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza, United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization. Maria Pittman, Alberto Laddomada, Ramunas Freigofas, Valentina Piazza, Aart Brouw, and Ian H. Brown. Surveillance, Prevention, and Disease Management of Avian Influenza in the European Union. Wildlife Disease 43: S64-S70. Neil M. Ferguson, Derek A. T. Cummings, Simon Cauchemez, Christophe Fraser, Steven Riley, Aronrag Meeyai, Sopon Iamsirithaworn and Donald. Burke Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437(7056): Pfeiffer, D. U Assessment of H5N1 HPAI risk and the important of wild birds. Wildlife Diseases 43: Robert G. Webster, and Elena A. Govorkova, M. D H5N1 37

38 Influenza-Continuing Evolution and Spread. The New England Journal of Medicine 355: Rose, K. Newman, S. Uhart, M. Lubroth, J Wild Bird Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Surveillance, Food and Agriculture Organization. Robert G. Webster, Ph.D., and Elena A. Govorkova, M.D., Ph.D H5N1 InfluenzaContinuing Evolution and Spread. NEJM 355: Robert G. Webster, Scott Krauss, Diane Hulse-Post, and Katharine Sturm-Ramirez Evolution of Influenza A Viruses in Wild Birds. Wildlife Diseases 43: S1-S6. Sabir Bin Muzaffar, Ronald C. Ydenberg and Ian L. Jones Avian Influenza: An Ecological and Evolutionary Perspective for Waterbird Scientists. Waterbirds 29: Stallknecht, D. E., and Brown. J. D Wild Birds and the Epidemiology of Avian Influenza. Wildlife Diseases 43: S15-S20. Thomas P. Weber and Nikolaos I. Stilianakis Ecologic Immunology of Avian Influenza(H5N1) in Migratory Birds. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13(8): V. Martin, S. von Dobschuetz, A. Lemenach, N. Rass, W. Schoustra, and L. DeSimone Early Warming, Database, and Information Systems for Avian Influenza Surveillance. Wildlife Diseases 43: Vittorio Guberti and Scott H. Newman Guidelines on Wild Bird Surveillance for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus Wildlife Diseases 43: S29-S34. Vincent J. Munster, Chantal Baas, Pascal Lexmond, Jonas Waldenstrom, Anders Wallensten, Thord Fransson, Guus F. Rimmelzwaan, Walter E. P. Beyer, Martin Schutten, Bjorn Olsen, Albert D. M. E. Osterhaus, Ron A. M. Fouchier

39 Spatial, Temporal, and Species Variation in Prevalence of Influenza A Viruses in Wild Migratory Birds. PLos Pathogenics 3(5):e61. 39

40 H5H NO.4187~ (NO6) b2005 (NO6)

41 %3d

42 (12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (9-11 ) (12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (9-11 ) (Podicipedidae ) (Pycnonotidae) (Ardeidae) (Pycnonotidae) (Sylviinae) (Zosteropidae) (Ploceidae) (Threskiornithidae) (Accipitridae) (Sturnidae) (Rallidae) (Columbidae) (Dicruridae) (Anseriformes) (Alaudidae) (Hirundinidae) (Rostratulidae)

43 (12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (Charadriidae) (9-11 ) (12-2 ) (3-5 ) (6-8 ) (9-11 ) (Scolopacidae) (Glareolidae) (Laridae)

44 (mean±sd ) hours ± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±4.3 ± ± ± ± ± ± (34 ) (56 ) X df (mean±sd ) hours 18.3± ± ± ± ± ± ± ±

45 *(p)0.05 Site Site (p) Site Site (p) PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF * PF-5 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-6 PF-7 PF * PF-2 PF-1 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF * PF-6 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-7 PF * PF-3 PF-1 PF-2 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF * PF-7 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF * 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* 0.000* PF-4 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-5 PF-6 PF-7 PF * PF-8 PF-1 PF-2 PF-3 PF-4 PF-5 PF-6 PF *

46 AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) (Podicipedidae ) Little Grebe Podiceps ruficollis N (Ardeidae) Little Egret Egretta garzetta Y Black-crowned Night Heron Nycticorax nycticorax Y Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis N Great Egret Egretta albat N Intermediate Egret Egretta intermedia N Grey Heron Ardea cinerea Y (Anseriformes) Teal Anas crecca N Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope Y Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata N Spot-billed Duck Anas poecilorhynacha N Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score : 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score : 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 46

47 AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) (Rallidae) Mooehen Gallinule chlorpus Y (Charadriidae) Lapwing Vanellus vanellus N Little Ringed Plover Charadrius dubius N Mongolian Plover Charadrius mongolus N Kentish Plover Charardrinus alexandrinus N Greater Sand Plover Charadrius leschenaultia N Black-bellied Plover Pluvialis squatarola N Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score : 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score : 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 47

48 AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) Scolopacidae Wood Sandpiper Tringa glareola N Common Sandpiper Tringa hypoleucos N Ruddy Turnstone Arenaria interpres N Dunlin Calidris alpine N Sanderling Crocethia alba N Marsh Sandpiper Tringa stagnatilis N Sharp-tailed Sandpiper Calidris acuminate N Red Knot Calidris canutus N Rufous-necked Stint Calidris ruficollis N Great Knot Calidris tenuirostris N Greenshank Tringa nebularia N Long-toed Stint Calidris Subminuta N Gray-tailed Tattler Tringa brevipes N Curlew Sandpiper Calidris ferruginea N Terek Sandpiper Xenus cinerus N Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago N Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus N Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score : 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score: 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 48

49 AI Common name Scientific name Gregariousness size density Degree of mixing Main habitat Distance score H5N1 case (From USGS) (Laridae) Saunders s Gull Larus crassirostris N Little tern Sterna albiforns N (Columbidae) Red-Turtle Dove Streptopelia tranquebarica Y Feral pigeon Columba livia Y (Alaudidae) Oriental Skylark Alauda gulgula N Hirundinidae Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica N Pacific Swallow Hirundo tahitica N Brown-throated Sand Martin Riparia paludicola N (Pycnonotidae) Chinese Bulbul Pycnonotus sinensis N (Pycnonotidae) Brown Shrike Lanius cristatus N Black-headed Shrike Lanius schach N (Sylviinae) Tawny-flanked Prinia Prinia subflava N Zosteropidae) Japanese White-eye Zosterops japonica Y (Ploceidae) Tree Sparrow Passer montanus Y Ranking criteria. Gregariousness during wintering/migration periods( ) (1). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 1000=4, (2). (Group size) Score : 1-4, 2m=4 2. Degree of mixing( )Score: 1-4 =4 =3 =2 =1 3. Main habitat use( )Score : 1-3 =3, =2, =1 4. Distance to poultry farm 2, 1.5, ( ) 1 49

50 Common name Scientific name Little grebe Tachybaptus ruficollis Mute Swan Cygnus olor Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope Common teal Anas crecca Lesser black-backed gull Larus fuscus Gadwall Anas strepera Goldeneye Bucephala clangula Gadwall Anas strepera Garganey Anas querquedula Shoveler Anas clypeata Mallard Anas platyrhynchos Northern Pintail Anas acuta Garganey Anas querquedula Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata Common Pochard Aythya farina Tufeted Duck Aythya fuligula Whooper swan Cygnus cygnus Coot Fulica atra Moorhen Gallinula chloropus Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria Bar-tailed Godwit Limosa lapponica Curlew Numenius arquata Common Snipe Gallinago gallinago Ruff Philomachus pugnax Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus Common gull Larus canus (Defra 2006), (DAF 2006), (Susanne 2006) 50

51 Common name Scientific name Great Cormorant Phalacrocorax carbo Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis Grey Heron Ardea cinerea Ring-necked Pheasant Phasianus colchicus Common Coot Fulica atra Common Moorhen Gallinula chloropus Wood Pigeon Columba palumbus Black-billed Magpie Pica pica Eurasian Jackdaw Corvus monedula Rook Corvus frugilegus Carrion Crow Corvus corone European Starling Sturnus vulgaris Eurasian Tree Sparrow Passer montanus Feral Pigeon Columba livia Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus Common Gull Larus canus (Susanne 2006), (EFSA 2006) 51

52 PF-6 PF-5 PF-3 PF-7 PF-2 PF-1 PF-8 PF-4 52

53 Numbers of population Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month Numbers of population Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month

54 Numbers of population Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month Numbers of population Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month

55 Numbers of population Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month Numbers of population Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Month

56 Numbers of population Mar Apr May Jun Month Numbers of population Mar Apr May Jun 0 8:00-9:00 9:00-10:00 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 Time

57 Number of species :00-9:00 9:00-10:00 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 Time Mar Apr May Jun

58 100% 90% 80% 70% Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site3 (n=139) Site 7 (n=592) Site 4 (n=159) Site 8 (n=104) Site 2 (n=135) Site 5 (n=45) Site 6 (n=17) Site 1 (n=16) % 90% 80% 70% Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site3 Site4 Site7 Site8 Site2 Site5 Site6 Site1 (n=125) (n=86) (n=702) (n=122) (n=15) (n=23) (n=78) (n=24)

59 100% 90% 80% 70% Percentage 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site 4 Site 8 Site 7 Site3 Site 2 Site 5 Site 6 Site 1 (n=132) (n=151) (n=485) (n=114) (n=51) (n=48) (n=22) (n=15) Site % 90% 80% 70% 60% Percentage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Site7 (n=1779) Site3 (n=378) Site4 (n=377) Site8 (n=377) Site2 (n=201) Site5 (n=116) Site6 (n=117) Site1 (n=55)

60 Number of population DEC JAN FEB Site 1 Site 2 Site3 Site 4 Site 5 Site 6 Site 7 Site Relative Riskiness Low risk Medium risk High risk 5 0 AI 60

61 Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month Numbers of population low contact intensity medium contact intensity high contact intensity (Bridge species) 61

62 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% others(not bridge species) BS (Bridge species) 0% Dec(n=1207) Jan(n=1175) Feb(n=1018) (Bridge species) ( ) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% others(not bridge species) BS (Bridge species) 20% 10% 0% Site3 (n=378) Site4 (n=377) Site8 (n=377) Site2 (n=201) Site7 (n=1779) Site6 (n=117) Site5 (n=116) Site1 (n=55) (Bridge species) 62

63 30 25 Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 63

64 30 25 Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 64

65 Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 65

66 Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb May Apr May Month AI Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb May Apr May Month AI 66

67 Relative Riskiness Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month AI 67