4 : 367, a 4,,,,? 30,, 10 ka (Deglaciation),, ( ), ( ),,, [3,4 ] [5, ] a, :??,? 3,,,, [6, ] 1 2 Ma, a, a, ( Octopella

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13 378 (D ) 28 Anasazi,, Anasazi? [33, Anasazi ],,Anasazi,,Anasazi 1300 [34 10 ], [35 ] Anasazi,Anasazi 8 : A : 1820 B : C( ) : D ( ) : E( ) : F ( ) : G( ) : H( ) : I( ) : J ( ) : B 1820, 1275 Anasazi C 600, D D E, F, G, H J, 3300,,, 600 a : , , [9,Schneider Londer 1984 ], O Brien 1995 [36 ]

14 4 : 379 : Dansgaard [37 ] O a Damon [38 ] a Magny [39 ] a, 14 C a, B,F J O Brien, D F,, B D [40 ],5 4 ( B,D,F J ) H, a, Fairbridge Hilliare- Marcel : 1650 ( B) 100 ( D) 1200 ( F) 3100 ( J ) Ters 1987 : 1600 ( B) 800 ( C) 200 ( D) 300 ( E) 700 ( F) 1500 ( G) 1800 ( H) 2200 ( I) 2700 ( J ),, a a, , a 112a, 7 15 a, : 150 a ;, [12,2, ], [41 ], 1 W/ m 2, 011 % Perry 1994, ;, [12 ] Perry, 11,22,44,88,176,2 700, a 5 :

15 380 (D ) 28 T = 11 2 n, n = 0,1,2,3,4 n 5,6,7,8,9,10,11 12, 352,704,1 408,2 816, 5 632,11 264, ,, Perry [42 ] 1994, 10 a, Perry Perry : B,C,D,E,F, G,H,I,J Perry [12 ], 800, 19, [12 ] a 0,1,2 3 (11,22,44 88 a ) 1715,, 70 a, ( ) [43 ] Spgrer ( ), ( ) a 4 ( 176 a) Eddy [44,45 ( ) ] Wittmann [46 ] 1995, : a 16 (Spgrer ) Spgrer a ( a 43 ) 203 a a 36 a a

16 4 : a a a 6, 330 a, 5 (352 a), B ( ) 3 ( / Spgrer/ ) a 7, : / Spgrer/ ( B, ) / (, ) / ( D, ) 14 C Damon Sonnett [38 ] (1991) 11,88,149,207,649, a, 0,3,4,5,6, 7 Eddy [43 ] 14 C ( ) ( , F, ) 2000 ( I, ) [47, Perry ] 11 : Hadley Cell,, ,, Bryson Murray [4 ], ,,,,, :,,,,,,

17 382 (D ) 28, Ma, a 10,, 1 7, 12, a a : 2200, 2800,, 60 70, ( [3,4 ) ] 10 : [48 ] 10, Perry, :,,,,, 60, 2000 Kerry Kelts, ( ETH) Jan Stenflo, Charles Perry,,

18 4 : Hs K J Is Gaia endothermic Geol Mag, 1992, Friss- Christensen E, Lassen K Science, 1991, 254 : Ponte L The Cooling Englewood : Prentice Hall, Bryson R A, Murray T J Climates of Hunger Madison : Univ Wisconsin Press, Hs K J Could global warming be a blessing for mankind? Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, 1996, 8 : Ding Y H Comment on Report by K J Hsu on Climate, Hunger and Migrations Letter to Minister Soong Jien, Negendark J, Zolitschka B Maars and Maar lakes of the Westeifel volcanic field In : Zolitschka B, Negendark J, ed Pale2 olimnology of European Maar Lakes Berlin : Springer, Bradley R S Global Changes of the Past Boulder, Colorado : Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies, Schneider S H, Londer R The Coevolution of Climate and Life San Francisco : Sierran Club Books, Spindler K The Man in the Ice New York : Harmony Books, Mandelbrot B The Fractal Geometry of Nature New York : Freeman, Perry C A A Solar Chronometer for Climate Ph D Diss Kansas Univ, 1989, Lamb H H Klim und Kulturgeschichte Taiwan : Commercial Book Publishers, Petit- Maire N, Riser J Sahara ou Sahel? Direction G n rale d Relations Cult du minist re de Relations ext, Paris, Amiran R, Ilan O, Goethert R, et al Tel Arad- The Cannanite City The Israel Museum, Jerusalem, 1994, 4 16 Weiss H, Courty M A, Wetterstrom W, et al The genesis and collapse of third- milennium north Mesopotamian civilization Science, 1993, 261 : Jacomet S, Magny M, Burga C A Klima- und Seespiegelschwangkungen im Verlauf des Neolithikums und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Besidlung der Seeufer In : Die Schweiz von Palgolithiumkum bis zum fr hen Mittelater Basel : Verlag Schw Gesll f Ur- und Fr hgeschicte, Hayden B Archaeology New York : Freeman, Kossina G Die indogermanische Frage archaeologisch beantwortet In : Scherer A, ed Die Urheimat der Indorgermanen Darmstadt : Wiss Buchgesellschaft, Childe V G The Aryans New York : Knopf, Shi Yafeng The Climates and Environments of Holocene Megathermal in China Beijing : China Ocean Press, Negendank J Oral Communication Univ Potsdam, Germany, James P Centuries of Darkness London : J Cape, Gams, H Aus der Geschichte der Alpenwglder Zeitschrift d deutsch u Oesterr Alpenvereins, 1937, 68 : Liu Shaomin Changing Climate of China in Historical Time Taiwan : Commercial Book Publishers, Pfishter C Agrarkonjunktur und Witterungsverlaufim Westlichen Schweizer Mittelland Diss Geogr Institut, Univ Bern, Mann S Die Urheimat der Indoeupger : Scherer A, ed Die Urheimat der Indorgermanen Darmstadt : Wiss Buchge2 sellschaft, Wang Binghua The excavation of mummies in Xinjiang and their preliminary study Xinjiang Wenwu (Cultural Relics of Xin2 jiang) (in Chinese), 1992 (4) : Zhang Yuzhong A summary account about the finding and studies of Xinjiang mummies Xinjiang Wenwu (Cultural Relics of Xinjiang) (in Chinese), 1992 (4) : Mair V H A study of the genetic composition of ancient desiccated corpses from Xinjiang ( Sinkiang), China Early China News, 1996 (6) : 1 9

19 384 (D ) Keller W The Bible as History New York : Morrow & Co, 1956, Kennedy P The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers New York : Random House, Cassels E S The Archaeology of Colorado Boulder : Johnson Books, Co, Cordell L S Prehistory of the Southwest San Diego : Academic Press, Peterson K L Reconstruction of droughts and summer warmth for the Dolores Archaeological Project In : Cordell L S, Gumerman G J, ed Dynamics of Southwest Prehistory Washington D C : Smithsonian Inst Press, O Brien S R, Mayerwski P A, Meeker L D, et al Complexity of Holocene climate as reconstructed from a Greenland ice core Science, 1995, 270 : Dansgaard W, Johnsen S J, Clausen H B, et al North Atlantic climatic oscillations revealed by deep Greenland ice cores In : Hanson J E, Takahashi T, ed Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, Amer Geoph Union, Washington D C, 1984, Damon P E, Sonnett C P Solar and terrestial components of the atmospheric 14 C variation spectrum In : C P Sonett et al ed The Sun in Time Tuscon : Arizona Univ Press, Magny M Solar influences on Holocene climatic changes Quaternary Research, 1993, 40 : Behl R J, Kennett J P Brief interstadial events in the Santa Barbara basin, NE Pacific, during the past 60 kyr Nature, 1996, 379 : Gribbin J Climatic change the solar connection New Scientist, 1991, Perry C A Solar-irradiance variations and regional precipitation fluctuations in the western USA Int Jour Climatol, 1994, 14 : Eddy J A The maunder minimum Science, 1976, 192 : Clark D H, Stephenson F R Aniterpretation of the pre-telescopic sunspot records from the Orient Q J Roy Astron Soc, 1978, 19 : Wang J C H A note on sunspot records from China The Ancient Sun Geochimica & Cosmochimica Acta, 1980 (Suppl 13) : Wittmann A D Catalog of Naked Eye Sunspot Observations Unpublished Compilation, University of Ggttingen, Perry C A Comparison of a solar-luminosity model with paleoclimatic data Inst f Tert Overseas Studies Symposium Series, 1995, 2 : Schneider S H Global Warming New York : Vintage Books,

2 决 (1) (2) (3) 408AD-537AD 0.82 479AD-509AD 2.66 ( 1990) 衆 1067 380 500 ( ) 6.5 1) 1) http://www.dtzc.gov.cn/lswh2.htm#3

2 决 (1) (2) (3) 408AD-537AD 0.82 479AD-509AD 2.66 ( 1990) 衆 1067 380 500 ( ) 6.5 1) 1) http://www.dtzc.gov.cn/lswh2.htm#3 1 38 925 Geographical Research No. 38, May. 2003 Climate Change and Capital Relocation of the Bei-Wei Dynasty in China ** Sheng-I Hsu Abstract About 1500 years ago, Emperor Tuo-ba-hong of the Bei-wei Dynasty