wwwww2 The micro/macro gap In recent days, there has been a great deal of focus on the growing gap between micro and macro indicators. Last week, for

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1 wwwww 年 11 月 9 日 欧洲 策略焦点 解读微观 / 宏观数据的不一致 证券研究报告 自下而上的盈利预测被下调与宏观指标改善相背离的情况日益受到市场关注 但其实这些差异并非异常现象 我们建议投资者避免过度解读这些信号 随着夏季以来股市风险溢价下降, 市场已经有所上涨, 宏观面的周期性复苏不太可能改变全球经济相对疲弱和欧洲经济增长停滞的趋势 我们建议避免采取明显的周期性选股策略, 并继续关注基于收益和增长的题材投资 这些差异并非异常现象近几周微观面自下而上的企业盈利较为疲弱 盈利预测被下调 但同时, 多项全球宏观经济领先指标却开始改善 这些差异并非异常现象 自下而上的市场共识 预测往往滞后于宏观面领先指标, 尤其是走势处于拐点之时 Sharon Bell, CFA 经济增长正在好转, 但可能继续疲软但一些重要因素可能会干扰对当前背离现象的解读 第一, 由于起始点非常高, 盈利预测下调周期的规模可能被夸大了 第二, 虽然宏观数据正在改善, 但未来经济增速可能仍会低于趋势水平 我们的分析表明经济活动的方向和强度对回报率表现而言都至关重要 第三, 由于股市风险溢价下降, 市场在宏观数据复苏之前已有变动 这一因素对板块表现的推动作用大于经济增长预期的影响 第四, 通常受益于宏观数据反弹的许多周期性板块的利润率目前正处于峰值水平 ( 而过去它们通常应接近谷底水平 ), 而且它们面临的结构性不利因素更为强劲 ( 如增长趋软以及大宗商品相关资本开支增长放缓 ), 这就弱化了大宗商品相关 板块和部分周期性工业板块增长走强的信号 避免明显的周期性选股策略并重点关注收益率和增长总之, 我们认为宏观数据好转所产生的影响将超过自下而上盈利数据的不佳表现 然而, 在当前货币政策非常宽松以及经济增速低于趋势水平的情况下, 更应采纳偏重主题而非板块风格的选股策略 我们依然认为低收益率和增长疲软可能依然是主要推动因素 稳定增长的公司组合 (GSSTGRTH) 以及那些高收益率和财务实力强劲的公司组合 (GSSTHIDY) 仍应表现良好 彼得 欧品海默 +44(20) peter.oppenheimer@gs.com 高盛国际 +44(20) sharon.bell@gs.com 高盛国际 Gerald Moser +44(20) gerald.moser@gs.com 高盛国际 Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA +44(20) christian.muellerglissmann@gs.com 高盛国际 Anders Nielsen +44(20) anders.e.nielsen@gs.com 高盛国际 Matthieu Walterspiler +44(20) matthieu.walterspiler@gs.com 高盛国际 高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系, 并且继续寻求发展这些关系 因此, 投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突, 不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息, 见信息披露附录, 或参阅 由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国 FINRA 的注册 / 合格研究分析师 高盛集团 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究

2 wwwww2 The micro/macro gap In recent days, there has been a great deal of focus on the growing gap between micro and macro indicators. Last week, for example, our Goldman Sachs Analyst Index in the US fell sharply to 32.9 in October from 44.1 in September. This is the lowest level since the end of the recession, and the underlying components fell broadly as well. The sharp deterioration in the headline and underlying components seems consistent with the predominantly negative sentiment from a relatively weak 3Q earnings season, although in both the US and Europe, the misses have been bigger on the revenue side than on earnings. While our GSAI does not cover Europe, the European earnings season has also been weak overall. So far, 36% of companies reporting have beaten EPS estimates by more than 5% (below the average over the past 12 quarters of 43%) and 36% have missed estimates by more than 5% (compared with 37% historically). On an absolute basis, 46% of companies have beaten estimates while 54% have missed. The average equal-weighted EPS surprise has been -1.4%. Results are better on a cap-weighted basis, with only 21% of the reporting market capitalization missing estimates by more than 5% and 41% beating by more than 5%. But generally sales have been weak (30% of companies reporting have beaten estimates by more than 2% and 29% have missed estimates by more than 2%). The average sales surprise has been -0.3% and guidance has been lowered for a number of companies. While this micro data has been generally weak, it comes at a time when top-down indicators are improving. In particular, the GLI, Goldman Sachs leading indicator for October, has moved tentatively into the expansion phase consistent with growth and moderately improving momentum. Last week saw some positive data in China (with the better than expected October PMI), as well as strong Korean exports. Meanwhile, a positive week on the US data front continues the more recent trend, with better than expected ISM, Conference Board consumer confidence, consumer spending, and jobs data for October (and positive revisions for August and September). The Senior Loan Officer survey also pointed to a net easing in lending standards, with levels suggesting upside risk in US consumer spending. Of course, we should not overstate the breadth and strength of this recovery; much of it is being driven by the US, while the European data has weakened in recent weeks. Indeed, consensus analyst earnings expectations have been stronger than might have been predicted looking at the domestic European macro indicators alone (Exhibit 1). Exhibit 1: Earnings estimates and PMI Euro manufacturing PMI m change in earnings estimates (RHS) Source: Haver Analytics, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 2

3 wwwww3 Furthermore, the market rise in Europe has also been stronger than the domestic data has pointed to. Both the earnings data and the equity market have benefited from the exposure of many European companies to the improving international backdrop, as well as the lowering of the European equity risk premium since the summer of this year. Exhibit 2: European equities and PMI The market has responded to better global data and a lower ERP 80 STOXX %12m change Euro area Manufacturing PMI (RHS) Source: Haver Analytics, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Nonetheless, a recovery in the global industrial cycle would normally be positive for risky assets; Europe, which is a relatively high beta market, should benefit commensurately despite ongoing domestic economic stagnation. However, the increase in earnings misses and weaker outlook guidance seems at odds with the momentum of the global macro data, despite the weak domestic picture and we have had a number of questions on how we should interpret these conflicting signals. The first observation we would make is that mismatches between analyst earnings expectations and top-down leading indicators are not unusual. Exhibit 3 shows the relationship between the GLI and consensus analyst revisions over time (this is not the expected growth rate but rather the ratio of upgrades versus downgrades). While there is a reasonable relationship between the two, the GLI has tended to lead analysts earnings sentiment at major turning points. The rapid recovery in the GLI, for example, came at a time when earnings revisions continued to weaken in 2008, when a similar lag occurred. 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 3

4 wwwww4 Exhibit 3: Ratio of earnings upgrades to downgrades and the GLI.the GLI often leads; earnings sentiment is the number of upgrades minus the number of downgrades vs. the total number of estimates. 50% 30% Europe Earnings Sentiment GLI Momentum (RHS) 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 10% 0.5% -10% 0.0% -0.5% -30% -1.0% -50% -70% Source: I/B/E/S consensus, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Part of the reason for this is that consensus analyst expectations tend to move quite a lot through the year and this can be seen particularly clearly over the last few years. Exhibit 4 illustrates this point, with each line showing the growth rates that consensus expects in European earnings for each year and how they progress over time. The slopes are particularly steep in years heading into downturns (such as 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2008), but are also steep in the upward direction going into recoveries (such as 2005, 2006 and 2007), as shown in Exhibit 4. Exhibit 4: Earnings revisions ski slopes Big revisions are the norm -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% 60 EPS (% change) 中国价值投资网 -40 最多 最好用研究报告服务商 Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Given that the global economy slowed around the spring of this year, reflecting weakness in Europe but also a sharp deceleration in the US and China, it is not surprising that expectations have weakened over the past two quarters. But are there other explanations of why there should be such a clear mismatch? 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 4

5 wwwww5 Interpreting the gap between top down and bottom up While the European economic stagnation and the risk rally since the summer explain both the weakness in micro data and the moderate pace of the market rally more recently, there are some other factors that we should consider. 1. The optimistic starting point One factor that should be emphasized is that the bottom-up consensus earnings data has been slow to reflect the much weaker macro data in 2Q and 3Q. Remember that at the start of this year, the bottom-up consensus for European earnings was around 12% growth. At the time, our topdown model was pointing to a decline of around 10%. Over the course of the year, we have raised our top-down forecasts moderately to -5%, but the bottom-up consensus has now fallen to -3% for 2012, with much of the adjustment happening only recently. Exhibit 5: European consensus earnings revisions for 2012 and % 中国价值投资网 -2% 最多 最好用研究报告服务商 -7% -12% -17% -22% Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Source: I/B/E/S consensus, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. 2. The pace of recovery matters As the major savings and investment imbalances around the world gradually unwind, the macro cycles appear to be increasingly short in duration, and the magnitude of the recoveries more muted. In effect, we are seeing small cycles within what remains a generally sub-par period of economic growth. This is clearly the case for Europe, where we have already seen the best part of five years of stagnation and where the aggregate prospects remain fairly bleak. But it is true to a large extent of other major regions too. US activity, while clearly pointing upwards, remains well below trend levels (our economists expect GDP growth of 1.8% in 2013). Meanwhile, the impact of weaker growth in the US and Europe is taking its toll on many growth markets. China, in particular, is readjusting to a lower band of growth driven by a gradual shift away from highvolume export growth towards more of a domestic demand-driven model. On balance, this means that while growth is accelerating, the pace of any recovery is likely to be more muted. This is important for two reasons: First, the strength of markets seems to vary both according to where we are in the cycle and how strong the cycle is. As Exhibit 6 shows, using data for the Stoxx 600, the wider the cycle, the bigger the returns on average during the recovery and expansion phase. The 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 5

6 wwwww6 band indicates the expected returns based on a model explained in the Appendix. For example, the 2010 recovery was stronger than we have seen to date, and the returns were commensurately stronger too. Exhibit 6: This cycle has been more moderate than the previous one GLI Acceleration (%) Recovery Jun-12 May-12 Aug-12 Jul-12 Apr-12 Contraction Oct-11 Oct-12 Sep-12 Jun-10 Feb-12 May-10 Mar GLI Growth (mom, %) Jul-10 Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Nov-11 Aug-10 Dec-11 Jan-12 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Expansion Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Slowdown Expected Nominal Monthly Return: > 3 % 2to 3 % 1to 2% 0 to 1% -1 to 0% <-1% The strength of the cycle and the impact on returns can also be seen over time in Exhibit 7. Stronger cycles, particularly in the 1990s and 2000s, were associated with stronger returns, whereas the muted and shorter cycles since 2009 have seen more moderate returns. Exhibit 7: The stronger the cycle, the bigger the return Recent cycles have been short and shallow 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% GLI Growth (mom) 2010 Cycle -0.5% -1.0% Expansion (30%) 中国价值投资网 -1.5% 最多 最好用研究报告服务商 Slowdown (44%) -2.0% Contraction (15%) Recovery (10%) -2.5% GLI (mom growth) -3.0% Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Of course, the current cycle could turn out to be strong, but we generally expect growth in most economies to remain well below trend. As a result, the signal in terms of aggregate returns and sector rotation may be weaker than we have seen in some past cycles. 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 6

7 wwwww7 Second, this has important implications for relative thematic and sector performances. Growth remains relatively scarce and sustainable growth winners are likely to remain in strong demand (we continue to favour our stable growers basket made up of stocks with high growth and low volatility of growth relative to their sectors, GSSTGRTH). This is probably clearer at the thematic level than the sector level. We favour companies that benefit from structurally stronger growth irrespective of whether they are to be found in highly operational lead sectors (such as autos) or in more stable sectors (such as luxury goods). We would also continue to avoid companies that are purely domestic in European exposure. 3. The market has moved ahead of macro data as ERP has fallen As discussed earlier, the decline in the ERP since July has been an important driver of the market and sectors. Unlike many other periods when the GLI might be pointing to a recovery, the market has already made strong progress through this year at a time when leading indicators have been turning down. This was a point that we demonstrated in Strategy Matters: The shallow cycle is not driving returns: So far it s all about risk, October 12, European equities tend to post flat returns in the recovery phase, but do well in the expansion period. In the current cycle, the market performance has been more extreme than was the case in the historical examples. This is true both for the recovery phase, in which the market has performed very well, and for the contraction phase, during which the market performed worse than in the past. Exhibit 8: The GLI and the market; this cycle has enjoyed better returns during the recovery as a lower ERP drove prices higher Current cycle Median performance (data back to 1986) 中国价值投资网 60 最多 最好用研究报告服务商 Slowdown Contraction Recovery Expansion Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. It appears that a change in the equity risk premium and the pricing of tail risks have been the main drivers behind the equity market s performance over the past months. This has been true at the sector level too. Exhibit 9 shows how the sectors with the highest positive correlation with the ERP (on the x axis) have tended to underperform on a relative basis since the June 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 7

8 wwwww8 trough in the market, whereas the performance leaders are the ones with a negative correlation to the ERP (in other words, ones that tend to do better when the risk premium falls). The sectors that have performed best since July in particular financials have done so largely as a result of the fall in the ERP, not as a result of stronger growth expectations. Exhibit 9: ERP has led sector performance since June x-axis: Correlation of ERP monthly change and sectors relative performance since 2009/08; y-axis: Sectors relative performance since the trough in the market (June 4) Banks Insurance MediaFinancial svs Retail Technology Industrial Travel& Autos Construc&Mat gds&svs leisure Basic Resources Real Estate Personal care & Oil&Gas Chemicals Health care Food&bev Utilities 12 Telecom Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. 4. Many cyclical sectors are at peak, not trough margins In a typical recovery, cyclical sectors and resources tend to be among the best performers (Exhibit 10 shows the pattern using the US ISM as a benchmark). This time around, we would be more selective in cyclical sectors. This is both because we expect the cycle to be weaker, but also because some of the cyclical sectors are facing more challenging structural trends. 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 8

9 wwwww9 Exhibit 10: ISM and average relative sector returns Cyclicals and commodity sectors typically perform best in recovery Down cycle Up cycle Peak to to Trough Trough to to Peak Oil & Gas 2.0% 2.5% -5.4% 12.4% Autos & Parts -9.7% -3.8% 0.0% 5.2% Media -5.5% 6.0% 0.0% 4.8% Chemicals -4.7% 4.2% 0.0% 4.3% Travel & Leisure 5.5% -9.0% 0.0% 3.8% Basic Resources -10.6% -19.6% 16.3% 3.0% Ind Goods & Svcs 0.0% -3.2% 0.0% 0.7% Retail -2.0% 1.9% 7.3% 0.6% Food & Bev 2.6% 2.5% -3.6% 0.0% Tech 6.8% -0.9% 10.4% -0.3% Constr & Mat -3.4% -3.8% 7.1% -0.4% Financial Svcs 3.9% -12.2% 0.0% -1.7% Utilities -6.0% -2.7% -14.4% -1.8% Health Care 2.2% 11.0% 1.1% -2.1% Telecom 0.0% 1.7% -17.2% -3.1% Real Estate 2.3% -14.3% 0.0% -3.4% Pers & HH Goods 3.6% 2.7% 0.0% -4.0% Insurance 4.2% 7.9% -1.4% -5.6% Banks -2.5% 1.8% 3.7% -7.1% Market 6.8% 2.0% 28.4% 16.4% Market (from 1997) 7.6% -12.7% 30.0% 14.9% Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. Furthermore, some of the traditional cyclical sectors that typically perform best as the economy expands enjoy much higher margins currently than, for example, in 2008 as the GLI started to improve. This is not the case for energy and basic resources, but these are facing lower returns given the significant increase in capex that they have put in place over recent years. If cyclical sectors are closer to peak margins than trough, the recovery potential into a cyclical improvement in growth is likely to be weaker. While there are some cyclical sectors we like out of this group notably media and autos (both of which have prospects for higher returns and margins in our analysts view) we do not think that there is likely to be such a clear and homogenous outperformance across all of the more commodity-related and economically sensitive sectors this time around, and selectivity will be more important. Exhibit 11: Many cyclicals are at peak margins reducing the scope for recovery with the macro cycle 9 8 % 01/03/2009 Current 7 中国价值投资网 6 最多 最好用研究报告服务商 Oil and Gas Basic Resources Autos and Parts Media Chemicals Travel and Lesiure Industrial Goods and Services Source: Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 9

10 wwwww10 As Exhibit 11 shows, Oil and Gas typically performs relatively well at this early expansion phase of the cycle. Nonetheless, we recently downgraded Basic Resources to neutral and Chemicals and Oil and Gas to underweight (see Strategy Espresso: Reducing commodities and materials in favour of Food and Media, October 25, 2012). Our oil equity analysts have also lowered their coverage view to Cautious (see Energy: Oil - Integrated, The end of free cash flow, October 17, 2012). Oil companies have experienced falling returns and deteriorating cash flows in an environment where oil prices were rising. As our commodity analysts expect the oil price to fall in the next few years on the back of increased non-opec supply led by shale oil, our oil analysts think that this deterioration is likely to accelerate. With future growth in China also more likely to emphasize domestic consumption rather than infrastructure, the trend demand for mining and basic resources may also be lower. To conclude, we think that the slowdown in analysts expectations should not be over-interpreted as a signal that prospects are deteriorating dramatically. At the same time, while cyclical macro indicators are improving, we do not think it likely that we are moving into a strong global economic rebound. This combination makes us moderately positive on the market at current valuations, but less inclined to take clear cyclical/defensive sector skews. Rather, we continue to think that the key thematic trends that we have followed will remain successful; finding strong balance sheet companies that can maintain dividends, and premium, low volatility growth companies that have a relatively low valuation premium, as a result of the higher than average equity risk premium. 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 10

11 wwwww11 Appendix: The pace of recovery matters The GLI moved into recovery territory in June this year and the October reading is in expansion. However, recovering momentum remains weak and it is likely that this expansion period will be weaker relative to past expansions. Here we show that the expected return on the STOXX Europe 600 Index depends not only on whether the global cycle is in an expansion phase or not but also on the magnitude of the expansion. The return on an asset can quite generally be written as: rt+1 = E[rt+1 Ft] + et+1, et+1 Ft ~f(0,σ2), where rt+1=log(pt+1/pt), Pt denotes the price of the asset, f is a unspecified distribution, et+1 is an error term and E[rt+1 Ft] denotes the conditional expected return. In order to evaluate if the expected return on the STOXX Europe 600 Index depends on the magnitude of an expansion, we assume that the conditional expected return can be described as: E[rt+1 Ft]= α+βgli-growtht + γgli-acceleration The estimation results are presented in Exhibit 12 and are intuitive. Both GLI growth and GLI acceleration have a highly significant impact on expected returns on the STOXX Europe 600 Index. This suggests that a weak expansion phase will have a positive impact on equity returns but that its impact will be relatively smaller in magnitude. In other words, stronger rallies tend to be underpinned by more robust expansions, and vice versa. Exhibit 6 in the text visualises the relationship between expected returns and the GLI s movements within the four phases of the swirlogram. Exhibit 12: Magnitude matters Expected returns are higher during a strong expansion Dependent variable: Nominal Monthly Equity Return (in %) GLI growth (month-on-month, in %) GLI acceleration (change in growth, in %) α estimate β Estimate Standard error t-stat γ Estimate Standard error t-stat R 2 Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research. STOXX Europe 600 Index *** *** % Notes: Significant parameters at a 1 percent significance level are marked by ***. The parameters are estimated by ordinary least squares and the covariance matrix is estimated by a Newey-West estimator (Bartlett kernel with a bandwidth of 12). Estimation period: January 1989 to October 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 11

12 wwwww12 Equity Basket Disclosure The Securities Division of the firm may have been consulted as to the various components of the baskets of securities discussed in this report prior to their launch; however, none of this research, the conclusions expressed herein, nor the timing of this report was shared with the Securities Division. 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 12

13 wwwww13 信息披露附录 分析师申明 我们, 彼得 欧品海默 Sharon Bell, CFA Gerald Moser Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA Anders Nielsen Matthieu Walterspiler, 在此申明, 本报告所表述的所有观点准确反映了我们对上述公司或其证券的个人看法 此外, 我们的薪金的任何部分不曾与, 不与, 也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点直接或间接相关 高盛信息披露 评级分布 / 投资银行关系 高盛投资研究部的全球研究覆盖范围 评级分布 投资银行关系 买入 持有 卖出 买入 持有 卖出 全球 31% 55% 14% 49% 42% 35% 截至 2012 年 10 月 1 日, 高盛全球投资研究部对 3,442 种股票评定了投资评级 高盛给予股票在各种地区投资名单中的买入和卖出评级 ; 未给予这些评级的股票被视为中性评级, 根据纳斯达克 / 纽约证券交易所的披露要求, 这些评级分别对应买入, 持有及卖出 详情见以下 公司评级, 研究行业及评级和相关定义 部分 美国法定披露 任何本报告中研究企业所需的特定公司法定披露见上文 : 包括即将进行交易的承销商或副承销商,1% 或其他股权, 特定服务的补偿, 客户关系种类, 之前担任承销商或副承销商的公开发行, 担任董事, 担任股票做市及 / 或专家的角色 高盛通常担任本报告中涉及的固定收益证券的做市商, 并常作为这些证券的交易对手 任分析师负责研究的任何公司的高级职员 董事 顾问委员会成员或雇员 非美国分析师 : 非美国分析师可能与高盛无关联, 因此可以不受纳斯达克 2711 条 / 纽 以下为额外要求的披露 : 股权及重大利益冲突 : 高盛的政策为禁止其分析师 分析师属下专业人员及其家庭成员持有分析师负责研究的任何公司的证券 分析师薪酬 : 分析师薪酬部分取决于高盛的盈利, 其中包括投资银行的收入 分析师担任高级职员或董事 : 高盛的政策为禁止其分析师 分析师属下人员及其家庭成员担 约证券交易所 472 条对于与所研究公司的交流 公开露面及持有交易证券的限制 美国以外司法管辖区规定的额外披露 以下为除了根据美国法律法规规定作出的上述信息披露之外其他司法管辖区法律所要求的披露 澳大利亚 : Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd 及其相关机构不是澳大利亚经授权的存款机构 (1959 年 银行法 所定义 ), 因此不在澳大利亚境内提供银行服务, 也不经营银行业务 本研究报告或本报告的其他形式内容只可分发予根据澳大利亚公司法定义的 " 批发客户 ", 在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外 巴西 : 与 CVM Instruction 483 相关的信息披露请参阅 根据 CVM Instruction 483 第 16 条, 在适用的情况下, 对本研究报告内容负主要责任的巴西注册分析师为本报告开头部分标明的第一作者, 除非报告末另有说明 加拿大 : 如果本报告与加拿大股票发行人有关, 高盛集团已批准本报告, 并同意承担有关责任 分析师可进行实地考察, 但不可收受公司对此等差旅支付的任何款项或偿付 香港 : 可从高盛 ( 亚洲 ) 有限责任公司获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资料 印度 : 有关本研究报告中的研究对象或所提及的公司的进一步信息可能来自高盛 ( 印度 ) 证券私人有限公司 日本 : 见下文 韩国 : 可从高盛 ( 亚洲 ) 有限责任公司首尔分公司获取有关本报告所研究公司的证券的额外资料 新西兰 : Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited 及其关联机构并非 1989 年新西兰储备银行法定义的 注册银行 或 存款机构 本研究报告以及本报告的其他形式内容只可分发给 2008 年财务顾问法案定义的 " 批发客户 ", 在事先获得高盛许可的情况下可以有例外 俄罗斯 : 在俄罗斯联邦分发的研究报告并非俄罗斯法律所定义的广告, 而是不以产品推广为主要目的的信息和分析, 也不属于俄罗斯法律所界定的 评估行为 新加坡 : 可从高盛 ( 新加坡 ) 私人公司 ( 公司编号 : W) 获取有关本报告中所研究公司的证券的额外资料 台湾 : 本信息仅供参考, 未经允许不得翻印 投资者应当谨慎考虑他们自身的投资风险, 投资结果由投资者自行负责 英国 : 在英国根据金融服务局的定义可被分类为私人客户的人士参阅本报告的同时应当参阅高盛以往对本报告研究企业的研究报告, 并应当参考高盛国际已经发给这些客户的风险警告资料 该风险警告资料复本, 以及本报告中采用部分金融辞汇的解释可向高盛国际索取 欧盟 : 与欧盟指令 2003/126/EC 第四章 (1)(d) 和第六章 (2) 有关的披露信息可参见 其中列明了欧洲在管理投资研究方面利益冲突的政策 日本 : 高盛证券株式会社是依据 金融工具与交易法 在关东财务局注册 ( 注册号 :No. 69) 的金融工具交易商, 同时也是日本证券业协会和日本金融期货业协会的成员 股票买卖需要缴纳与客户事先约定的佣金及消费税 关于日本证券交易所 日本证券交易商协会或日本证券金融公司所要求的适用的信息披露, 请参见与公司有关的法定披露部分 公司评级 研究行业及评级和相关定义 买入 中性 卖出 : 分析师建议将评为买入或卖出的股票纳入地区投资名单 一只股票在投资名单中评为买入或卖出由其相对于所属研究行业的潜在回报决定 任何未获得买入或卖出评级的股票均被视为中性评级 每个地区投资评估委员会根据 25-35% 的股票评级为买入 10-15% 的股票评级为卖出的全球指导原则来管理该地区的投资名单 ; 但是, 在某一特定行业买入和卖出评级的分布可能根据地区投资评估委员会的决定而有所不同 地区强力买入或卖出名单是以潜在回报规模或实现回报的可能性为主要依据的投资建议 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 13

14 wwwww14 潜在回报 : 代表当前股价与一定时间范围内预测目标价格之差 分析师被要求对研究范围内的所有股票给出目标价格 潜在回报 目标价格及相关时间范围在每份加入投资名单或重申维持在投资名单的研究报告中都有注明 研究行业及评级 : 每个行业研究的所有股票名单可登陆 通过主要分析师 股票和行业进行查询 分析师给出下列评级中的其中一项代表其根据行业历史基本面及 / 或估值对研究对象的投资前景的看法 具吸引力 (A): 未来 12 个月内投资前景优于研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值 中性 (N): 未来 12 个月内投资前景相对研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值持平 谨慎 (C): 未来 12 个月内投资前景劣于研究范围的历史基本面及 / 或估值 暂无评级 (NR): 在高盛于涉及该公司的一项合并交易或战略性交易中担任咨询顾问时并在某些其他情况下, 投资评级和目标价格已经根据高盛的政策予以除去 暂停评级 (RS): 由于缺乏足够的基础去确定投资评级或价格目标, 或在发表报告方面存在法律 监管或政策的限制, 我们已经暂停对这种股票给予投资评级和价格目标 此前对这种股票作出的投资评级和价格目标 ( 如有的话 ) 将不再有效, 因此投资者不应依赖该等资料 暂停研究 (CS): 我们已经暂停对该公司的研究 没有研究 (NC): 我们没有对该公司进行研究 不存在或不适用 (NA): 此资料不存在或不适用 无意义 (NM): 此资料无意义, 因此不包括在报告内 全球产品 ; 分发机构 高盛全球投资研究部在全球范围内为高盛的客户制作并分发研究产品 高盛分布在其全球各办事处的分析师提供行业和公司的股票研究, 以及宏观经济 货币 商品及投资组合策略的研究 本研究报告在澳大利亚由 Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd(ABN ) 分发 ; 在巴西由 Goldman Sachs do Brasil Corretora de Títulos e Valores Mobiliários S.A. 分发 ; 股票及其他研究在加拿大由高盛集团分发 ; 在香港由高盛 ( 亚洲 ) 有限责任公司分发 ; 在印度由高盛 ( 印度 ) 证券私人有限公司分发 ; 在日本由高盛证券株式会社分发 ; 在韩国由高盛 ( 亚洲 ) 有限责任公司首尔分公司分发 ; 在新西兰由 Goldman Sachs New Zealand Limited 分发 ; 在俄罗斯由高盛 OOO 分发 ; 在新加坡由高盛 ( 新加坡 ) 私人公司 ( 公司号 : W) 分发 ; 在美国由高盛集团分发 高盛国际已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发 欧盟 : 高盛国际 ( 由英国金融服务局监管 ) 已批准本研究报告在英国和欧盟分发 ;Goldman Sachs AG( 由联邦金融监管局监管 ) 可能也会在德国分发 一般性披露 本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用 除了与高盛相关的披露, 本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性, 客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的 我们会适时地更新我们的研究, 但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做 除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外, 绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版 高盛是一家集投资银行 投资管理和证券经纪业务于一身的全球性综合服务公司 高盛全球投资研究部所研究的大部分公司与我们保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系 美国证券经纪交易商高盛是 SIPC 的成员 ( 我们的销售人员 交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略 我们的资产管理部门 自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策 本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高盛销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论, 或在本报告中讨论交易策略, 其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件, 该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反 任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级, 此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力 我们以及我们的关联机构 高级职员 董事和雇员, 不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师, 将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸, 担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手, 或买卖上述证券或衍生工具 在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的司法管辖区内, 本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约 本报告不构成个人投资建议, 也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需求 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况, 以及 ( 若有必要 ) 寻求专家的意见, 包括税务意见 本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动 过去的表现并不代表未来的表现, 未来的回报也无法保证, 投资者可能会损失本金 外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响 某些交易, 包括牵涉期货 期权和其它衍生工具的交易, 有很大的风险, 因此并不适合所有投资者 投资者可以向高盛销售代表取得或通过 取得当前的期权披露文件 对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品, 例如, 期权差价结构产品, 其交易成本可能较高 与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供 在撰写研究报告期间,Goldman Sachs Australia 全球投资研究部的职员可能参与本研究报告中所讨论证券的发行人组织的现场调研或会议 在某些情况下, 如果视具体情形 Goldman Sachs Australia 认为恰当或合理, 此类调研或会议的成本可能部分或全部由该证券发行人承担 所有研究报告均以电子出版物的形式刊登在我们的内部客户网上并向所有客户同步提供 并非所有研究内容都转发给我们的客户或者向第三方整合者提供, 高盛也并不对由第三方整合者转发的我们研究报告承担任何责任 有关个股的所有研究报告, 请联络您的销售代表或登陆 披露信息可以查阅 或向研究合规部索取, 地址是 200 West Street,New York,NY 高盛版权所有 2012 年未经高盛集团公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝 复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发 高华证券信息披露 一般披露 本报告在中国由高华证券分发 高华证券具备证券投资咨询业务资格 本研究报告仅供我们的客户使用 本研究报告是基于我们认为可靠的目前已公开的信息, 但我们不保证该信息的准确性和完整性, 客户也不应该依赖该信息是准确和完整的 我们会适时地更新我们的研究, 但各种规定可能会阻止我们这样做 除了一些定期出版的行业报告之外, 绝大多数报告是在分析师认为适当的时候不定期地出版 高盛高华为高华证券的关联机构, 从事投资银行业务 高华证券 高盛高华及它们的关联机构与本报告中涉及的大部分公司保持着投资银行业务和其它业务关系 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 14

15 wwwww15 我们的销售人员 交易员和其它专业人员可能会向我们的客户及我们的自营交易部提供与本研究报告中的观点截然相反的口头或书面市场评论或交易策略 我们的自营交易部和投资业务部可能会做出与本报告的建议或表达的意见不一致的投资决策 本报告中署名的分析师可能已经与包括高华证券销售人员和交易员在内的我们的客户讨论, 或在本报告中讨论交易策略, 其中提及可能会对本报告讨论的证券市场价格产生短期影响的推动因素或事件, 该影响在方向上可能与分析师发布的股票目标价格相反 任何此类交易策略都区别于且不影响分析师对于该股的基本评级, 此类评级反映了某只股票相对于报告中描述的研究范围内股票的回报潜力 高华证券及其关联机构 高级职员 董事和雇员, 不包括股票分析师和信贷分析师, 将不时地对本研究报告所涉及的证券或衍生工具持有多头或空头头寸, 担任上述证券或衍生工具的交易对手, 或买卖上述证券或衍生工具 在任何要约出售股票或征求购买股票要约的行为为非法的地区, 本报告不构成该等出售要约或征求购买要约 本报告不构成个人投资建议, 也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需求 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况, 以及 ( 若有必要 ) 寻求专家的意见, 包括税务意见 本报告中提及的投资价格和价值以及这些投资带来的收入可能会波动 过去的表现并不代表未来的表现, 未来的回报也无法保证, 投资者可能会损失本金 外汇汇率波动有可能对某些投资的价值或价格或来自这一投资的收入产生不良影响 某些交易, 包括牵涉期货 期权和其它衍生工具的交易, 有很大的风险, 因此并不适合所有投资者 投资者可以向高华销售代表取得或通过 取得当前的期权披露文件 对于包含多重期权买卖的期权策略结构产品, 例如, 期权差价结构产品, 其交易成本可能较高 与交易相关的文件将根据要求提供 北京高华证券有限责任公司版权所有 2012 年未经北京高华证券有限责任公司事先书面同意, 本材料的任何部分均不得 (i) 以任何方式制作任何形式的拷贝 复印件或复制品, 或 (ii) 再次分发 高盛全球经济 商品和策略研究 15