Applying the TOC Logistic Process to Clarify the Problem Schemes of Near-Field Earthquake in Tokyo Metropolitan Area Based on the TOC Logistic Process

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1 pplying the TOC Logistic Process to Clarify the Problem Schemes of Near-Field Earthquake in Tokyo Metropolitan rea ased on the TOC Logistic Process Jie CHENG 1,Kishie SHIGEKW 2, Kimirou MEGURO 3, Humio YMZKI 4, Itsuki NKYSHI 5,Haruo HYSHI 6 and Keiko TMUR 7, 1 ERP Department of ERP,Keyware Solutions Inc 2 Graduate School of Environment and Disaster Research, Fuji Tokoha University 3 Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo 4 Graduate School of Engineering, Chiba University 5 Graduate School of Urban Environmental Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University 6 Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University 7 Risk Management Office, Niigata University n unprecedented damage losses is expected as the worst scenario of a M7.3 earthquake hit Tokyo Metropolitan. In response to this, MEXT started a new research program of which all authors in the paper participated. Under this research program, we adopted the logistic process of Theory of Constraints to clarify the problem schemes from near-field earthquake in Tokyo metropolitan area. We had 4 rounds of comprehensive workshop with more than 80 experts in various related fields and 3 rounds of facilitator workshop to created problem schemes. s a result of this workshop, 2,989 entities were identified, with problem schemes of 14 Core Conflicts were elaborated. Key Words : Tokyo Metropolitan Earthquake, Theory of Constraints, Current Rreality Tree, Core Conflicts 1)- 3) (2007) () () 1 4) lbeverio lbeverio 2 5) (2007) lbeverio 225

2 vs 2 TOCTheory of Constrains) 1907 TOC 3 Undesirable Effect (UDE) UDE If then 4 UDE UDE UDE Core Problem(CP) Root Cause(RC) 226

㧠 ᚻ ߈ࠍታ ߔࠆߚ ߩ႐ߩ ߈ 㗴 ߦߕߖߪߣޠ RC ߣ ߁ᚲਈߩ 㗴ߣߒߡ ߃ࠆ ߎߣߣߔࠆ ޕ 㚂ㇺ ਅ 㔡ߦ߅ߌࠆ 㗴 ㅧߩ ߩߚ ߩ႐ߪ ޔ ળࠍ ࡊᒻᑼߢ ߒߚ㧔એਅ ޔ ࡊ㧕 ߪࠇߘߦࠄߐޕ 2 ߟߩㇱಽߦ ࠇߡ ࠆ ޕ 1 ߟߪ ࡊߢ ࠅ ߁ ޔ 1 ߟߪࡈࠔ ࡊߢ ࠆ ޕ ࡊߢߪ ޟޔ ᐢ ෂᯏ ℂ ἴ ߩ ߦ㑐ߔࠆ ߩޠ ࡔ ࡃ ߇ዊ ࡊߦ ࠇߡ㚂ㇺ ਅ 㔡 ߦ㑐ߔࠆ

3 㧠 ᚻ ߈ࠍታ ߔࠆߚ ߩ႐ߩ ߈ 㗴 ߦߕߖߪߣޠ RC ߣ ߁ᚲਈߩ 㗴ߣߒߡ ߃ࠆ ߎߣߣߔࠆ ޕ 㚂ㇺ ਅ 㔡ߦ߅ߌࠆ 㗴 ㅧߩ ߩߚ ߩ႐ߪ ޔ ળࠍ ࡊᒻᑼߢ ߒߚ㧔એਅ ޔ ࡊ㧕 ߪࠇߘߦࠄߐޕ 2 ߟߩㇱಽߦ ࠇߡ ࠆ ޕ 1 ߟߪ ࡊߢ ࠅ ߁ ޔ 1 ߟߪࡈࠔ ࡊߢ ࠆ ޕ ࡊߢߪ ޟޔ ᐢ ෂᯏ ℂ ἴ ߩ ߦ㑐ߔࠆ ߩޠ ࡔ ࡃ ߇ዊ ࡊߦ ࠇߡ㚂ㇺ ਅ 㔡 ߦ㑐ߔࠆ ࠍⴕ ޔ ℂᕁ ࡊ ߦၮߠ ߡ㚂ㇺ ਅ 㔡ߩ 㗴 ㅧࠍ ߔࠆ ޕ ࡊ߇ ߒߚᓟߦ ޔ ዊ ࡊߩ ࠍ Ṗߦㅴ ࠆߚ ߩㅴⴕᓎ㧔એਅ ࠔࡈޔ 㧕ࠍ㓸 ޔ ࡊߢ ࠄࠇߚ 㗴 ㅧߩ ൻࠍ ࠆ ᧄޕ ߦ߅ ߡߪ ޔ 4 ߩ ࡊߣ 3 ߩࡈࠔ ࡊࠍታᣉߔࠆ ޕ ࡊߦ߅ߌࠆ 㗴ߩนⷞൻߦߟ ߡߪ ޔ ࠍ ߡᗧ ࠍ ߦนⷞൻߒߥ߇ࠄ ߩߘޔ ᗧ ࠍ ㅧ ߦ㈩ ߔࠆߎߣߢ ߩߘޔ 㑐ଥᕈࠍ ㅧ ߦนⷞൻߔࠆߎߣߢ ࠍㅴ ࠆ ޕ ኻ ᶖ 㗴 ㅧ ߦ߅ ߡ ޔ ਛ 㗴߇ ቯߐࠇߚ ὐߢ ޔ ਛ 㗴ߦ߅ߌࠆኻ ㅧߦ ߒ ޔ ኻ ᶖ ࠍ ᚑߔࠆߎߣߢߘߩ ࠍ ߃ࠆ㧔 5㧕 ޔߕ ޕ ኻ ߔࠆ ႐㧔D/D 㧕ߦ ߔࠆߎߣߦࠃࠅ ޔ ኻ ߔ ࠆ೨ឭࠍ ߔࠆ ޕ ኻ ߔࠆ೨ឭ߆ࠄ ߓࠆߘࠇߙࠇߩ ⷐ 㧔/C㧕ࠍ ߦߒ ⷐࠆߥ ޔ ߦ ㅢߔࠆኻ ߒ ߥ ߣߟߩ 㧔㧕ࠍ ࠄ߆ߦߔࠆ ޕ ߘߎߢ ޔ ਛ 㗴ࠍ ߔࠆߚ ߩᣇ ࠍ ߢද ߔࠆᚻ ߈ߦ ࠆ ޕ ᣇ ߪ ℂ ߦ ߃ࠆߣ ޔ એਅ ߩ㧠ߟ ޟ Ԙᅱ 㧦㧮ߣ㧯߇ਔ ߢ߈ߥ ߣᕁߞߡ ࠆߩ ߪߥߗ߆ ޕ 㧮ߣ㧯߇ਔ ߢ߈ࠆᣇᴺߪᧄᒰߦߥ ߩ߆ ޠ ޟ ԙ㧮ߩⷐ ዅ㊀㧦㧰 ߣߔࠆߣߥߗ㧮߇ታ ߢ߈ߥ ߩ߆ ޕ 㧰 ࠍߔࠆߎߣߢ㧮ߢ߈ࠆᣇᴺߪߥ ߩ߆ ޟޠ Ԛ 㧯ߩⷐ ዅ㊀㧦㧰ߣߔࠆߣߥߗ㧯߇ታ ߢ߈ߥ ߩ߆ ޕ 㧰ࠍߔࠆߎߣߢ㧯ߢ߈ࠆᣇᴺߪߥ ߩ߆ ޟޠ ԛ㧮㧯ߩ ઙ㧦 ߣ႐วߦࠃߞߡߪ㧰ߣ㧰 ߪߤ߁ ߁ߣ߈ߦኻ ߔࠆߩ߆ ࠆ ޕ ઙߢߪ㧰 ࠆ ઙߢߪ㧰 ߪน ߆ ߦޠ ᄢ ߐࠇ ߩߘޔ 㧠ᣇ ߦߟ ߡߘࠇߙࠇ ߔࠆ ޕ 㧡 ᨐߣ ኤ ԛƹଢღɣ 䋿 ƜƷʙ Ƹ נ ƢǔƔ ௐ᧙ Ƹ 䋿 ƋǔƷƔ ᛯ ƕ ƠƯƍƳƍƔ ௐ᧙ ƕ 䋿 ᡞưƸƳƍƔ 䋿䋿 ࡊ ฦዊ ࡊ߇ 㗴 ㅧࠍ ߒߚߎߣߢ ޔ 㗴 ㅧߦ㑐ࠊࠆ 㗴߇ᄙߔ߉ߡ ޔ ฦ 㗴ߦ㑐ࠊࠆ ߩᢙ߇ዋߥ ߣ ߁ ᨐߣߥߞߚ ޕ ߪ ࡊߦ߅ ߡ ߇ޠࡊ ࠆ ޟ ᚑߒߚ ᚑᨐ ߩ ߢ ࠆ߇ ߩ ޔ ਛߦ ޟ ㅢ ޟޠ ᖱႎㅢ ⴕޟޠ ޟޠ ㆱ㔍 ᵴ ⵍ ޟޠ ኂ ޟޠ Ἣἴ ޟޠ ኂ ޟޠ ᢎ ޟޠ ޟޠ ⴕ ޟޠ ળ⒎ᐨ ޟޠ ቛ ޟޠ ᓳ ߚߞ ߣޠ ᄙ㕙 ߥ ኈࠍ ߒࠃ߁ߣߔࠆ ߎߣߢ ޔ ฦ 㗴 ኈߦ ߔࠆ ߩᢙߪዋߥ ᨎᢙߦ ߞߚ ޕ КƷҾ Ƹ ƳƍƔ КƷኽௐƸ ƳƍƔ 䋱 ࡈࠔ ࡊ ࡊߢ ᚑߐࠇߚ 㗴 ㅧߪ㚂ㇺ ਅ 㔡ߩ ࠍ೨ឭߣߒߡ ޔ ੩ߩ ญ ᕈ ᑪ ᕈ ᕈ ᴦ ᕈߥߤ߆ࠄ ߃ࠄࠇߚ ߩߢ ࠆ ᣇ ޔ ੩ߩ ᒻ ᕈࠍ ᘦߒ߈ࠇߡ ߥ ߎߣ ࠊ߆ߞߚ ߩߘޕ ᴫࠍ ᒛߒߡㅀߴࠇ ޔ ੩ㇺᔃߢ㜞䋿 Ҿ ƸNDƔ 䋲 ORƔ 㧠 ℂߩⷙቯ 㧮ߩⷐ ዅ㊀㧰 ߔࠆߣߥߗ㧮߇ታ ߢ߈ߥ ߩ߆ 㧰 ࠍߔࠆߎߣߢ㧮ߢ߈ࠆᣇᴺߪߥ ߩ߆ 㧯ߩⷐ ዅ㊀ 19 㧰ߔࠆߣߥߗ㧯߇ታ ߢ߈ߥ ߩ߆ 㧰ࠍߔࠆߎߣߢ㧯ߢ߈ࠆᣇᴺߪߥ ߩ߆ ߣ႐วߦࠃߞߡߪ 㧰ߣ㧰 ߪߤ߁ ߁ߣ߈ߦኻ ߔࠆߩ߆ ࠆ ઙߢߪ㧰 ࠆ ઙߢߪ㧰 ߪน ߆ ᅱ 㧮ߣ㧯߇ਔ ߢ߈ߥ ߣᕁߞߡ ࠆߩߪߥߗ߆ 㧮ߣ㧯߇ਔ ߢ߈ࠆᣇᴺߪᧄᒰߦߥ ߩ߆ 㧡 ኻ ᶖ 㧢㧝 ࡊߩ ᨐߩ 227

ɦထᴾ ᣃ ᴾ ޛ ᴾ 㧣 ಽᨆ ጀࡆ ⴝ߇ᑧ Ἣἴߢ ߒߚ ߦ ޔ 㒐 უߦࠃࠆ㐳 ߩਛߢ ᄢߥㆱ㔍 ߇ ᵴߔࠆߣ ߞߚ ߇ߥ ߐࠇߡ ߚ ߚߒ߁ߎޕ ᴫࠍᡷༀߒ ࠅࠃޔ 㗬ᕈߩ㜞㗴 ㅧࠍ ࠆߚ ߦ ޔ ੩ߩ ℂⅣႺࠍ ߃ߡ ಽᨆࠍⴕߞߚ㧔 7㧕 ޕ ੩ㇺߩ ᒻߪ ޔ ㇱߩบ ߣߘࠇࠍೞ ߡߒߘޔ ㇱߩߘߩ ࠍၒ ࠆૐ ߢ ᚑߐࠇߡ ࠆ ߁ࠃߩߎޕ ߥ ᒻߩ ߦ ޔ ੩ߩ ㇱߢߪࠕ ࡊ ޔ

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12 Super Structure CIPCritical Infrastructure Protection 8) 3 2 2 3 3

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