国土技術政策総合研究所　研究資料

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殷肠唐
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1 I S S N TECHNICAL NOTE of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management No 464 June 2008 Sensitivity of Storm Surge Inundation Damage Induced by Global Warming at Three Major Bays in Japan Takeshi SUZUKI National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management Ministry of Land Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Japan

2 (YSK-N-162) * * , Fax , suzuki-t92y3ysk.nilim.go.jp

3 Technical Note of NILIM No. 464 June 2008 (YSK-N-162) Sensitivity of Storm Surge Inundation Damage Induced by Global Warming at Three Major Bays in Japan Takeshi SUZUKI* Synopsis Three major bays (Tokyo Bay, Ise Bay and Osaka Bay) in Japan have large low-lying lands. Inundation damage there by storm surges is increased by sea level rise and typhoon strengthening due to global warming. For estimating this damage, numerical models that describe storm surges, waves and inundation were built up. Then, damage graphs that output damage index from sea level rise and typhoon strengthening were drawn based on calculations by the models. The graphs showed as stated below. (1) Damage of three major bays increase rapidly around design sea level. (2) Ise Bay has the largest amount of loss, followed by Osaka Bay and Tokyo Bay. Amount of loss of Osaka Bay is larger than that of Ise Bay at typhoon strengthening ratio 1.6. (3) Amount of loss with sea walls existing is quite small than that without sea wall. (4) Protection performance of sea walls is high in Tokyo Bay and Ise Bay. Key Words: Global warming, storm surge, inundation, damage graph, Tokyo bay, Ise bay, Osaka bay * Head, Coastal and Marine Department Nagase, Yokosuka, Japan National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management Phone Fax suzuki-t92y3ysk.nilim.go.jp ii

4 iii

5 国総研資料 No.464 IPCC cm Alley, B. R. et al, km m 2,339km a - -

6 H2 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測 / 鈴木武 1940b 1975 Myers1954 (1) r 0 p pc p exp (1) r p r r p c r 0 p (2)(3) (4) M N 0 (2) t x y C W W W (4a) sx sy a a D D x y 2 x 2 x 2 y C W W W (4b) 2 y M N D gn bx w M (4c) 7 /3 M N D gn by w N (4d) 7 /3 x, y D MN x, y f g P 0 sx sy x, y bx by x, y a w C D n W x W y 10m x, y 1940a1940b (5) Q H 1 2gH 1, H 2 H 1 (5a) 2 M M MN t x D y D D P (3a) 0 fn gd x x M M ( sx bx ) A h 2 2 x y Q 0.91H 2 2g( H 1 H 2), H 2 H 1 (5b) N MN N t x D y D D P (3b) 0 fm gd y y N N ( sy by ) A h 2 2 x y H1 Q

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ߔࠆᢙ୯ࡕ ࠍ ᚑߒߚ㧚 ߩ ઙ 㜞ầᶐ ࡒࡘ ߦࠃࠅᶐ ⵍኂߩផቯࠍⴕ ߁ ߪ㧘ᣣᧄᴪጯߩઍ ߥૐᐔ

ᶏጯᣉ ߩߚ ߩầ ߣᵄᶉࠍ ቯߔࠆ ઙߣߥߞߚบ㘑㧔 บ㘑㧕ࠍၮᧄߣߒ㧘㒽 ߩਛᔃ ᐲࠍၮḰ

7 国総研資料 No.464 ࠆ㧚 ᶏ ߩ㒽 ᶐ ߪጤፒ ㊁㧔1979㧕ߩᣇᴺߢ ߔ ࠆ㧚ߎࠇߪ㧘 ߦ ߔࠃ߁ߦ㧘ᵄవߢߩ ᒻࠍ㓏 ߦ ߃㧘㒽 ሶὐߩ 㜞 h ࠃࠅᶏ ሶὐߩ ǯ ߇㜞 ႐วߦ㧘ߘߩᏅࠍታ 㧰ߣߒߡᵹ㊂ ࠍⴕ߁ ᣇᴺߢ ࠆ㧚 's Ki 2 Ki 1 Ki hi 㜞ầ߅ࠃ ᵄᶉ ߩᐢ i i 1 Di 1 0 Mi 1 0 Di i 1 0 i 2 Di 1! 0 Mi z 0 Di 2! 0 Mi 1 z 0 ᶐ Ⴚ ઙߩ ᑼ ߘࠇࠄߦࠃࠅ ᄢḧᅏㇱߩૐ ߦ߅ ߡ㜞ầߦࠃࠆᶐ ߩ ᴫࠍ ߔࠆᢙ୯ࡕ ࠍ ᚑߒߚ㧚 ߩ ઙ 㜞ầᶐ ࡒࡘ ߦࠃࠅᶐ ⵍኂߩផቯࠍⴕ ߁ ߪ㧘ᣣᧄᴪጯߩઍ ߥૐᐔ ߇ሽ ߔࠆ ᄢḧ ߩḧᅏㇱߣߒߚ㧚 ᄢḧߩ㜞ầᶐ ߦㆡ ߔࠆบ㘑㜞ầᶐ ߦ ߔࠆบ㘑ߪ㧘 ᄢḧฦ ߩޘ ᶏጯᣉ ߩߚ ߩầ ߣᵄᶉࠍ ቯߔࠆ ઙߣߥߞߚบ㘑㧔 บ㘑㧕ࠍၮᧄߣߒ㧘㒽 ߩਛᔃ ᐲࠍၮḰ ߦߒߡ บ㘑ࠍ 0.1㨪1.6 ߦᄌൻߐߖߡਈ߃ߚ㧚 ᄢ ḧߩ บ㘑ߪ㧘บ㘑ⷙ ߇દ ḧบ㘑㧔㒽 ߩਛᔃ ߪ 935hPa㧘ਛᔃ ᐲߪ 75hPa㧕ߢ ࠅ㧘บ㘑 ߪ㧘 ੩ḧࠍ บ㘑㧘દ ḧࠍદ ḧบ 㜞ầᶐ ߩ ߣ 㜞 - -

8 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測 / 鈴木武 H.W.L. 0.0m1.0m 1.0 H.W.L. 53.5km km km 2 200m600m 50m 100m 25m 0m m 6.6s WSW 3.3m 6.6s WSW 3.0m 3.0m - 4 -

9 国総研資料 No m m m 1m

10 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測 / 鈴木武 m H.W.L. H.W.L. 0.6m 1.3 IPCC H.W.L. 1.0m m

11 国総研資料 No.464 H.W.L

12 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測 / 鈴木武 m

13 国総研資料 No.464 S-4H18H21 Alley, B.R. et al (2007): Summary for Policymakers: Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 18p. Myers, V.A. (1954): Characteristics of U.S. Hurricanes Pertinent to Levee Design for Lake Okeechobee, Florida, Hydro-Meteorology Report, No. 32, Weather Bureau, U.S. Dept. Commerce, 106p., Wave Setup No.719/II-61pp Vol.26 pp pp a Vol.26No.6pp b Vol.26No.9pp Vol.39 pp

14 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測 / 鈴木武 A

15 国総研資料 No

16 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測 / 鈴木武

17 国総研資料 No.464 B.દ ḧᅏㇱߦ߅ߌࠆ㜞ầᶐ ߩᦨᄢᶐ $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว

18 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測鈴木武 $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว

19 国総研資料 No.464 $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว $ บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว

20 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測鈴木武 C.ᄢ㒋ḧᅏㇱߦ߅ߌࠆ㜞ầᶐ ߩᦨᄢᶐ % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว

21 国総研資料 No.464 % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว

22 三大湾奥部における地球温暖化による高潮浸水被害の変化予測鈴木武 % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว % บ㘑ᒝᐲ ߢᶏ㕙 EO ߩ႐ว

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