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- 干饱 艾
- 5 years ago
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1
2 CIP / ISBN X P CIP * * /
3 I
4 II
5 III
6 BQS Poisson T ~ MAPS 161
7
8 ) 2)
9 % 70% 2 CCITT.T %~20% km km km HLAFS TS 5% MAPS 2 3
10 1 20% 90% 2 CCITT.T6 CCITT.T4 VMS WINDOWS 95/98 WINDOWS NT UNIX WINDOWS 95/98 CPU P266 64MB CCITT.T6 7~8 DOS Windows MICAPS 3 T106L19 24,
11 0.5,0.25 SP CRAY HLAFS HLAFS HLAFS 12~ TS 5% T106 36~ BOGUS SD-90 T106 ECMWF T106 ECMWF SD km T106 P 5
12 T106 8 MAPS 714CD HLAFS T106 ECMWF MM4 MAPS MAPS 5 MAPS
13 7
14 () ;; ;; km 10km 1982 Schejwach ()() Schejwach(1982) ()() () () () ()() Schejwach(1982) 8
15 3 () 5km 30 2~3m/s 4 400hPa 400~700hPa 700hPa DOS DOS DOS 640KB Windows95 DOS () Windows 640KB Windows95 DOS DOS Windows DOS 9
16 Windows ~ ~ ~ ~8m/s 1 6~7m/s [1] Xu Jianmin, Zhang Qisong, Fang Xiang, Liu Jian, Cloud Motion Winds from FY-2 and GMS-5 Meteorological Satellites, Fourth International Winds Workshop, ~23 [2] Fang Xiang, Zhang Qisong, Developing and Non Developing Tropical Cyclones Revealed by High Density Cloud Motion Winds, Fourth International Winds Workshop, ~23 [3] Xu Jianmin, Kenneth Holmlund, Zhang Qisong, Johannes Schmetz, A comparision to the two atmospheric motion vector derivation schems:the eumetsat seg protocal scheme and the nsmc scheme, Fifth International Winds Workshop, ~3 3 [4] Zhang Qisong and Xu Jianmin, Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) Analysis Tools In the NSMC 10
17 AMV Derivation Scheme, Fifth International Winds Workshop, ~3 3 [5] ,
18 1996~ [1 3] 2 A a k g k = A + N i= 1 ob g ( A A ) P i i i 1 a Ak A g k P i i A g i i A ob i i N j=1 P µ + η P = µ i ij i j ki ( i = 1, 2,..., N ) 2 ij i,j, 2 i i N j=1 P µ = µ i ij ki ( i = 1,2,..., N ) 3 12
19 3, 3 ( r ) = exp( r a) µ 4 ij ij / 2 ( r ) = exp( r a) µ 5 ij ij / r ij i,j i,j a a r r 1 r ij 2 r 2 ij 1 a a a a a a
20 N r [4] 3a d P 1, P 2, P 3, P 4, r,, ( 6) r µ ij = µ ( r) = µ = exp( ) a 3 K ( a) µ P1 = P2 = µ 14 a ( 7)
21 , 2 K 1 K 3b µ ( 1+ µ ) ( 1+ µ + µ ) µ = 2 4 ( 1+ µ + µ ) 2 P 1 = 2 4 P 2 2 ( 8) ( 9) 3c µ P2 + P3 = P1 = µ 3d µ ( 10) P 1 = P2 = P3 = P4 = 2 ( 11) 1 + 2µ ( 2 r) + µ (1) (2) (3), 4 100km 100km ~ km dbz 15
22 0.1mm/hr PPI 5km 5km, PPI ( ) ( ) ( 5)( 4), ~
23 % = 100% 5 6 mm
24 % (5) 2 1 a. 90% b, 3 3 a b a c % % 80% 18
25 5 1 2 (1) (2) ; (3) 19
26 2 MICAPS MICAP AFDOS 20
27 K 1 VAX (ftp client) ftp server 21
28 (ftp client) ftp server 22
29 4 23
30 1 GTS 24
31 2 BQS 25
32 3 BQS 26
33 4 27
34 28
35 29
36 30
37 31
38
39 1 50km km LAFS 24 TS 19% 6 7 M-LDARS 300km 1 72~ LAFS HLAFS
40 Micaps : ~ N, ~ E 2 T106L T Pudykiewice , LAFS, HLAFS( ) HLAFS 12~36 34
41 414 () MICAPS a, 0.85 HLAFS a, FOR ALPHA CRAY J90 C92 MICAPS ~12 UTC km 10 15hPa 00 UTC km km 4 TS 5% h 48h 164.9km 389.5km hPa 12.00UTC 96h 47 24h 48h 72h 96h 217.7km 365.6km 472.7km 557.5km 24h ~
42 km h km km 48h (6~9 )414 TS (HLAFS) (MOD) MOD TS 30% 6 Ts UTC 48h 12.00UTC 96h ~ SP SP HLAFS,
43 Weather and Forecasting (Feb. 1999) MICAPS [1] [2] [3] T106L [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] 2000 [12] 2000 [13] SP HLAFS 2000 [14] [15]
44 [16] An Objective Approach for Making Heavy Rainfall Forecast Based on Model Output and Latest Observation Weather and Forecasting Feb [17] [18] 2000 [19] 2000 [20]
45 () T106 Micaps T ~60, 39
46 Q T (ms) ϕ ( B) Q MS 1 = ( A) ς dϕ ϕ y (1) ϕ ( B) Q MS 2 = MPV ( ) 2dϕ ϕ A y (2) ϕ ( B) Q MS 3 = ( A) T A dϕ ϕ y (3) : ϕ(a) 1000hPa ϕ(b) Q Q = qv g 40
47 v u ς = x y u θ e v θ e MPV2 MPV2 = g( ) p y p x T A T A = V T <0 <0 Q <0 y ζ>0 T A > (1) (2) (3) 9608 ((3)) T106 08~ 08 ( 1) 1 T106 36~
48 Micaps 5 (1) (2) (3) (1),(1) (3) 5 24 ( 50mm) ~ ~ T106() T106 6 T 106 T106 T106 T106 7 T106 42
49 4 T % ( 2 ), 13 0, T ( 2 ), T106,, , T ~ , 3 T106 --, T106 3, 4 [1] [2] vol.47 No.4 [3] [4] 96.8 vol.16 No.2 43
50 , (UTC,) h 1995,10 N 8 N9 N,, 1996,,,,,,,, ~ N, 105 ~ E (50km) ~ N ~ E ,1 44
51 TY9605(EVE) (8) (6) (8) (6) TY9612(NIKI) (6) (4) (6) (4) (14) (10) (14) (10) :() 1,,, , 21, 17 [1] 24h 191km,48h 356km (1) h 200km 48h 400km (2) 11, 24h 195km 7, 64% 3 [2],,,,,, 1 [3] 2, h123.7km,48h295.3km 24h 197.9km,48h304.4km 24h 48h 45
52 : h :00,,24h, : h (+ * ) : h 36h,48h : h(1) 46
53 : h : h : h 12h48h 24h36h : h,CRAY,
54 24 (km) 48 (km) TY9613(ORSON) 8.23~ (6) 166.4(6) 321.9(6) 317.8(6) TY9615(SALLY) 9.6~ (1) 104.3(1) 52.4(1) 187.7(1) TY9616(VIOLET) 9.13~ (7) 303.5(7) 489.3(7) 454.6(7) TY9617(TOM) 9.13~ (4) 269.3(4) 403.4(4) 512.3(4) TY9618(WILLIE) 9.18~ (2) 197.5(2) 147.1(2) 305.5(2) TY9619(YATES) 9.23~ (5) 182.0(5) 453.0(5) 405.5(5) TY962.(BETH) 9.25~ (7) 276.9(7) 571.8(7) 451.3(7) 265.8(32) 235.9(32) 424.5(32) 410.1(32) 2,,, 3, 32, 24h, 48h , 19,, h 200km , 24h 200km 4, 27% h 48h km 39km 24h 48h (.) km km TY 9701 ISA 4.13 ~ TS 9702 LEVI 5.28 ~ 5.29 TY 9703 MARIE 5.30 ~ 6.1 TY9704 NESTOR 6.8 ~ TY 9705 OPAL 6.16 ~ STS9706 PETER 6.25 ~ TY 9707(ROSIE) 7.20 ~ TS 9708 SCOTT 7.28 ~ 7.31 TY 9709 TINA 7.31 ~ TY 9710 VICTOR 7.31 ~ TY 9711 WINNIE 8.10 ~ STS9712 YULE 8.19 ~ 8.22 TY 9713 ZITA 8.21 ~ TY 9714 AMBER 8.22 ~ TY 9715 BING 8.30 ~ TY 9716 OLIWA 9.4 ~ TY 9717 DAVID 9.13 ~ (.) 24h km 48h km 48
55 TS 9718 FRITZ 9.23 ~ TY 9719 GINGER 9.24 ~ 9.30 TY 9720 IVAN ~ TY 9721 JOAN ~ TY 9722 KEITH ~ TS 9723 LINDA 11.1 ~ 11.2 STS9724 MORT ~ TY 9725 PAKA 12.8 ~ ,,,,,,,,,, 0 ~ N, ~ E 83 55, : 1,, 2,, ,,24h 160.4km,48h323.9km 24h164.9km 48h 394.2km, 24h, 48h, 3, , 4 4,24h 8km,48h 6km 24h km 48h km 24h km 48h km 49
56 TY9704 NESTOR TY 9705 OPAL STS9706 PETER TY 9707(ROSIE) TY 9709 TINA TY 9711 WINNIE TY 9713 ZITA TY 9714 AMBER TY 9715 BING TY 9716 OLIWA TY 9717 DAVID TY 9718 FRITZ , , 5 12h 24h 36h 48h , 12h, 36h 48h,, 6 12h 24h 36h 48h , 12, h h 48h (10) (5) (10) (5) 50
57 7, , 0.8, 0.5, h 24h 36h 48h , 1 : h 48h 12h 36h 1 : 0.8 7,, [1].. A (1997) 1 ~ 5 [2],..,1994, 5 (4): 462 ~ 469 [3],,. BOGUS.,1994,(5) 54 ~ 60 [4],, (1) : 1 ~ 8 51
58 Saffir-Simpson [1] , 80~100 64% 1.5~2, [2] 10m mm 1631mm mm mm Agnes E 20 N % 67 52
![62 1 [2] 1884~1999 24 39.3% 11 18.0% 12 19.](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/59-0.jpg "7% 2 3.2% 2 3.2% 125 E 25 N 8 13.1% 2 3.")
59 62 1 [2] 1884~ % % % 2 3.2% 2 3.2% 125 E 25 N % 2 3.2% 3 [4] [5] 53
60 [3] 1992 d 100 h 10 e Id=logd-1 Ih=logh-2 Ie=loge-2 d 100 h 10 e Id=d/100 Ih=h/ Ie=e/10000 G=Id+Ih+Ie G G= X X 2 (1) G X 1 X G G G = X 2 (2) X
61 % % % % % ~ ~ ~ ~ ~5 10~40 6~8 40 9~
62 40 6~ [6] ~ ~ mm
63 G= *1060= G= * *1060= Fred m/s Herb Sally m/s Winnie m/s 499mm m/s, 950hPa 500mm m/s, 920hPa mm 1 hpa 5a 100~400mm 2 3 hpa 5b 500~1000mm 57
64 [1] 5612 Wanda hPa, 902hPa, 100 Saffir-Simpson 6 [7] [1] 970 hpa, 50m/s Saffir-Simpson Saffir-Simpson 75 [1] Neumann 1991 [2] 2000 [3] [4] 2 2 1~ [5] ~123 [6] Yang Yuanqin Zhang Guangzhi Wang Jizhi, An Observed study on sudden intensifying of typhoon 9909 (Sam), 24 th International Conference On Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology, Miami USA,2000 [7] R.H.Simpson, H.Riehl, The Hurricane and its impact, louisiana State University, Press Baton Rouge and London,
65 Poisson ƒ (χ)=e λ λ x /x! Poisson N Poisson Von. Neumann [1] [2] 1981 C.J.Neumann Poisson 2000, [3] Poisson N N [3 4]
66 Poisson Poisson x ƒ (x)=e λ λ x /x!, x=0,1,2.n λ>0 Poisson x x Poisson Poisson 1 t λ λ t Poisson 3 N N N ~5 100 N N N N N [6] 100 Poisson 60
67 30 N N ƒ (x)=e λ λ x /x!, x=0,1,2,.n λ=/ N N [5] ~ R<1.5 R<0.2 V>33m/s V>33/s 61
68 () hpa
69 4 N ~1974 [3] Saffir-Simpson (hpa) 4 () ~ (1) 75 Saffir-Simpson 51 [7] , (2) hPa 4.5 Saffir-Simpson hPa Saffir-Simpson
70 Poisson ƒ (χ)=e λ λ x /x! N Poisson C.J.Neumann [1] H B Wrobief, 1960 : P35~42 [2] Chris Landesea, Charlie J. Neumann,2000: The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project: Results for 1851~ th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Fort Landerdale,FL P542~544 [3] 1991, P221~227,P270~273 [4] 1990,P20~26 [5]. 2000,P408~431 [6] A.Wald, Statistic Decision Functions, Ann, Math. Stat.,20, 1949,P16~19 [7] ,P14~18 64
71 '98 TIPEX '98 50 '98 SST EP [1] [2] [3] SST -- 67
![2 [5] 50 [4] 1998 1998 y t x 1 1998 6 7](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/72-0.jpg "300hPa 1 200hPa 300hPa 300 hpa 1 1998 50 2")
72 2 [5] 50 [4] y t x hPa 1 200hPa 300hPa 300 hpa TIPEX TIPEX
![[12] 2 AFDOS](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/73-0.jpg "300 3 2 TIPEX")
73 [12] 2 AFDOS TIPEX TIPEX SST ElNino
74 E 500hPa SST 1997 El Nino, hPa EP Eliassen Palm 1961 EP Hoskins 1983 EP EP [10] 80 EP [11] 1 Eliassen-Palm ( + V ) ζ + ζd = 0 1 t D V ρ ζ = ζ + ζ 2 v u ζ = 3 x y 70
75 ( + V )ζ + V ζ = d 4 t d 1 2 ( + V ) ζ = V ζ ζ + d ζ t 2 1 ( + V ) ζ t 2 2 = ( M y N = ( Mζ y x ) ζ x + Nζ + ( M x ) x x + N y ) ζ ( Mζ x y + d ζ Nζ y ) y + d ζ 5 v ζ = 2M + N N 6 [6] 1 x y 2 M N E = ( 2M, N) = ( v u, u v ) v ζ = 2M xy + N xx = ( E) y EP E E E 2 T106L T106L km 1 125km 1000hPa 10hPa hPa 250hPa 6 625km 6 625km 98 3 E EP E E 6 7 1~20 EP N xy xx y 71
76 hPa 250hPa hPa 500hPa EP TIPEX 40cm
![5 1998 8 1998 5 6 12 9 1998 5 25 6 23 20 50 9 5 25 6 23 30 9 4 5 6 6 8 [12] 6 10 1998](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/77-0.jpg "7 23 700hPa 10 6 7 11 1998 7 23 300hPa 11 300hPa 10 11 1999 TIPEX 4200 1998 6 [13] 73")
77 [12] hPa hPa hPa TIPEX [13] 73
78 hPa hPa SST El Nino , 12 [4]
79 EP [1] 1999 [2] ~ [3] [4] 2000 [5] Wang Jizhi (),Yang yuanqin(),an Analyzing Forecasting Data-processing Operational System, Seventh International Conference on Interactive Information for MET. Jan [6] 1980 [7] [8] [9] [10] Hoskins B. J.,I. N. James and G. H. White,1983,The Shape, Propagation and Mean-Flow Interaction of Large-Scale Weather Systems J. Atmos. Sci., 40, [11] Higgins R. W. and Schubert S. D., 1993, Low-Frequency Synoptic-Eddy Activity in the Pacific Storm Track, J..Atmos. Sci., 50, [12] Wang Jizhi(),Yang Yuanqin(),An Observed study on '98flooding in China by intergrated diagnosis of '98TIPEX on Plateau and multi-channel data,third international Scientific Conference On the Global energy and water cyclone,1999 [13] 1999 [14] 1991 [15] Ogura,Y.,A life history of an intense meso-scale convective storm in Oklahoma, J.Atmos.Sci.,34(1997)
80 TIPEX GAME/Tibet Doppler ) TBB Hovmoller ) 10 1~10km Doppler km 35km TIPEX 3 TIPEX (1999) [1] (1999) [2 4] (2001) [3] [5] [6] [7-14] 1998 TIPEX 76
![[16] 1999 [17] 2 1998 7 19 2 19](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/81-1.jpg "04 19 07 19 10 19 13~16 19 18")
81 GAME/Tibet Doppler TIPEX [15] 1994 [16] 1999 [17] ~ ~7 77
82 2 b c 2 3~5 TBB 3 TBB Hovmoller a 04 GMT b 07 GMT c 10 GMT d 13 GMT e 16 GMT f 18 GMT 78
83 3 1~ A Doppler 3 30N TBB ~31 Doppler 91.3E 116.0E B 2~5 7 13~
84 C 6~8 7 17~ ~23 D 9~ ~ TBB 4A 4 A (33 )TBB a b c 4 B :30 (a) 07:20 (b) 08:00 (c) GMT 80
85 1998TIPEX TIPEX GAME/Tibet ~19 TIPEX GAME/Tibet 4A 33N TBB 4A TBB TBB Doppler A TBB 5 GAME/Tibet Doppler TIPEX 4B Doppler 1 3 TBB 4A TBB 1 4B Doppler 10 1~10km TIPEX IOP 4A B 5 100km 4 4A B a, b c dB, 10km 20 20dB, 10km 10 4B Ba 20km 81
86 Bb 25km TIPEX /3 3 4 TBB GAME/Tibet Doppler TIPEX 34.9 N 98.1 E 4220m 28.9 N 89.6 E 4043m TIPEX ~ ~12 GMT 2 70~90 Cb 82
![3 21 24 72 2001 [17 3] Ekman 500hPa 7 1979~1995 1999 98TIPEX [18] 6 4200 [16] 80% 96% 1 6 1994 1998 7 1998 TIPEX 3 TBB 1998 7 21~23 18 1 7 19](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/87-0.jpg "7 19 Doppler 6 7 8 9 1998 7 18 00 19 00 20 00 3 7-9 1 1998 7 18 00 30N 6.0g/kg 6g/kg 18.6g/kg 2 1998 7 19 00 30N 3 7 8 9 7 20 30N 3 6.")
87 [17 3] Ekman 500hPa ~ TIPEX [18] [16] 80% 96% TIPEX 3 TBB ~ Doppler N 6.0g/kg 6g/kg 18.6g/kg N N g/kg 83
88 N 6.0g/kg, N 6.0g/kg, 84
89 N 6.0g/kg, 4 8~ ~300hPa q>6.0g/kg 300hPa 18 9 RI hPa 1998 [20 ] ~
90 ~ TIPEX GAME/Tibet Doppler TBB Hovmoller ~10km Doppler km 35km 10 3 TIPEX
91 1998 [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] Hoskins B. J.,I. N. James and G. H. White,1983,The Shape, Propagation and Mean-Flow Interaction of Large-Scale Weather Systems J. Atmos. Sci., 40, [10] Higgins R. W. And Schubert S. D., 1993, Low-Frequency Synoptic-Eddy Activity in the Pacific Storm Track, J..Atmos. Sci., 50, [11] Wang Jizhi(),Yang Yuanqin(),An Observed study on '98flooding in China by intergrated diagnosis of '98TIPEX on Plateau and multi-channel data,third international Scientific Conference On the Global energy and water cyclone,1999 [12] 1999 [13] [14] )Ogura,Y.,A life history of an intense meso-scale convective storm in Oklahoma, J.Atmos.Sci.,34(1997) [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] 2000 [20] 87
92 1 88
93
94 ,,,,;,; : 1 01 S 06,, 02 VSAT,() ,, 3 01, 4,,, 90
95 5, 2 1,
96 S
97 , ;; ;;,;,, 6 93
98
99
100
101
102
103 MICAPS
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111 3 107
112 4 108
113
114 SD [1] N 132 E 48 [2] 18 N 136 E 110
115 km km (a) (b) / /, 0---, 1---, 2--- (a) 9711 ( ) (b) 9714 ( ) AXP
![Kuo Kuo-Anthes AXP2100 1 25 ~30 N 120 ~125 E 55 55 45km [3] 20 ~35 N 115 ~130 E 81 81 45km 120 E 10 25 N 10 24 48 [4]](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/116-0.jpg "MM4 [5] 13 37.5 2 TS TS 35 [3] 13 2 [1] 2 13 1997 6 15 ~10 15 4 9706 9709 9711 9714 6 / 3 4 / 0.")
116 Kuo Kuo-Anthes AXP ~30 N 120 ~125 E km [3] 20 ~35 N 115 ~130 E km 120 E N [4] MM4 [5] TS TS 35 [3] 13 2 [1] ~ / 3 4 / 0.1mm 25mm 50mm TS 112
117 24 / / TS TS / TS TS / 24 TS / 0.1mm mm mm TS / 0.1mm mm mm / 24 TS / 0.1mm mm mm TS / 0.1mm mm mm / / m/s / [1] 6 / 113
118 24 h 48 h 24 h 48 h 24 h 48 h STC PC SD-85 (1) PC (2) (3) SD-85 PC PC N 135 E 15 N 140 E km 388.0km
119 7 7 SD-85 km km SD-85 PC SD-85 SD-90 (1),, (2) 14,, km 4 T63 T106 [6] (36.3 N,115.7 E), (31.8 N, E), (13.9 N,132.9 E), (17.0 N,114.4 E)(41.0 N,117.5 E), (35.4 N,153.7 E), (1.9 N,144.0 E), (15.4 N,118.3 E) T km
120 T106, [7] PP / 1997 T106 9 / / : m/s hpa [8] VAX3400 AXP
121 UNIX OPEN VMS [1] 1996 (), 103~112, 1997 [2] (), 1~9, 1995 [3] (), 10~18, 1995 [4], 1989 [5] Richard A. Anthes etc. Description of the Penn State / NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 4 (MM4), NCAR Technical Note,May [6] (), 43~48, 1995 [7] (), 49~53, 1995 [8] (), 108~112,
122 TC TC [1] UTC TC V V = b 0 + b 1 u + Ub + b 2 v + Vb a 1 sin 2 +a 2 cos 2 +a 3 sin + a 4 sin = 0 a i b i Ub/ Vb TC (ECMWF) T213 ECMWF T hPa TC UTC TC TC TC TC a i b i TC, t= 3h 3h TC TC 118
123 3 48 h TC 72 h TC 72 h E/36.3 N E/31.8 N E/13.9 N E/17.0 N E/41.0 N E/35.4 N E/1.9 N E/15.4 N 4,, 41 41,=100km ECMWF T213 T106, GTS T213 (45 N~45 S) / 1 (1200 UTC), 72 h UTC, 1200 UTC h 0000 UTC h 60~72h 48~60h., 2 72h TC TC TC h TC 1 R=6371 arccos(cosa) (km) = arccos[(cosa cosb cosc)/(sinb sinc)]/(180/ ) (deg.) SP=6731 [arccos(cosb) arccos(cosc)]/ t km/h cosa=sin f sin r+cos f cos r cos( f r) cosb=sin f sin o+cos f cos o cos( f 0) cosc=sin o sin r+cos o cos r cos( r 0) sinb=sin[arccos(cosb)] sinc=sin[arccos(cosc)] f r TC TC ,
124 ( 2) TC,,, TC 12h / h , 48~72 h TC TC h km() deg() km/h() E N/126 E 32 5N 22 5 N/127 E N/138 E N/138 E (7) 25.4(7) 4.8(7) (6) 25.6(6) 7.9(6) N/129 E (5) 23.1(5) 6.2(5) (14) 12.4(14) 5.2(14),15 N/127 E (12) 19.0(12) 5.1(12) NW, (10) 17.4(10) 4.8(10) N/122 E NE (6) 622.8(6) 569.9(4) 8.3(6) 12.2(6) 8.3(4) 13.1(6) 12.3(6) 7.3(4), 22.5 N/137 E NE N/ E TC km deg. km/h TC TC () () () 24 h 151.1(78) 14.1(78) 4.5 (78) 146.1(84) 149.1(39) 48 h 299.0(65) 15.5(65) 4.6 (65) 342.6(66) 293.3(25) 72 h 406.7(51) 15.3(51) 4.1 (51) 335.2(10) TC 120
125 0 ~ 12h ~ 24h ~ 36h ~ 48h ~ 60h ~ 72h TC (), TC () ( 4) TC () () () 0~12h ~24h ~36h ~48h ,24 h 13 TC (), 24~48 h 9 () , 1997 TC, El-Nino La-Nina 1998 TC TC ( ) 37 TC 5 2 5, 1998 TC h km, km/h, 1998, TC h 48.8km 227.9km, 126.3km 109.2km, 1998 TC TC9804 TC9806 TC9807 TC h E N/141 E 9 24h 158.2km h km, UTC 27 06UTC TC9804 TC 9806, 2 ( UTC UTC ), 4, UTC 24 h 29.5 N, TC
126 , 9 21, 35 km/h, 55 km/h 7,,, TC TC h km () deg. () km/h () E ( 4 ) ( 2 ) 20 2 ( 4 ) 18 2 ( 2 ) 18 1 ( 4 ) 13 6 ( 6 ), 30.4 N/137 E,24.5 N/139.2 E ( 6 ) 698 7( 4 ) 788 5( 2 ) 14 1 ( 6 ) 27 3 ( 4 ) 23 0 ( 2 ) 5 4 ( 6 ) 5 9 ( 4 ) 7 4 ( 2 ) 25 N/135 E 30 N N/134 E E N/121 E , TC TC 72 h
127 TC TC TC / 20 min( PC 586 ) TC km km(65 ) 371.5km (51 ), km,, , 2 TC () 3 TC9806 TC9807,, TC TC [1] 8 43~ [2] I B ~
128 714SD 1 714SD % 124
129 3 MICAPS SYSBAS SD MB MB 11 Micaps 714B B
130 MSDDS Windows T106 T km 83.3km T63 T106 P WIN95 NT
131 Micaps
132 4 128
133 1 714SD SD SD , hPa) hPa) PPI (1) (2) (3) PPI 300km 129
![1 1 20km 40m/s 60km20m/s 10m/s r [0,20] V=2*r r (20,60] V=50 r/2 r](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/134-0.jpg "(60,200] V=10m/s V r 1a 1b 1b V= 10m/s 1c 1d 1c (V= +10m/s) 1d 130")
134 1 1 20km 40m/s 60km20m/s 10m/s r [0,20] V=2*r r (20,60] V=50 r/2 r (60,200] V=10m/s V r 1a 1b 1b V= 10m/s 1c 1d 1c (V= +10m/s) 1d 130
135 SD VmaxVmin Vn Vn=(Vmax-Vmin)/2*cos ( ) H H=h+Lsin +L 2 /2k*r, h 196.7m L R k *10.4=41.6m/s 38 m/s m/s m/s 47.1m/s (24.2) (118.0) 2a N, E 2b
136 2a 2b SD km ) m 400~800m 973m ~12 132
137 (3) PV V
138 ~500km
139
140 WIN95 98 NT SAPC * 1 TC 10 DOS [1] WIN95 98 NT4.0 ( 1) E ~180 E 0 N ~ 60 N 136
141 3 1 T C SAPC 2 137
142 3 4 ( 4) N E, 998hPa, 18m/s, N E, 1000hPa, 15m/s,
143 m/s hPa ~1193(116.3~119.3 E) (18.0~20.0 N) ~1235(120.5~123.5 E) (15.6~17.6 N) 5, kms ~1996 1~12 1~55m/s hPa N E,100kms 0.5, 16.1~17.3 N, 111.8~112.6 E kms 139
144 ~50 m/s 1949~ ,
![7 6 [2] SAPC 1949~1998](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/145-0.jpg "SAPC- 8 [3] 1 2 [4 5]")
145 7 6 [2] SAPC 1949~1998 SAPC- 8 [3] 1 2 [4 5] 141
![8 3 4 SAPC-- [6],,,, SAPC,, : 1) PC, ; 2),,, ; 3),; 4) ;](/docs-images/93/113150599/images/146-0.jpg "5),; 6) ; 7) [1] : 1995.8 [2],1995 [3],1983,(5) [4], 142")
146 8 3 4 SAPC-- [6],,,, SAPC,, : 1) PC, ; 2),,, ; 3),; 4) ; 5),; 6) ; 7) [1] : [2],1995 [3],1983,(5) [4], 142
147 ,1984,(8) [5] (Cliper) 1981,1983,P55 [6] SAPC,1996,(1) 143
148 106 1 () [1] 1988, 2 500hPa 700hPa 850hPa a H i j 4,5 + H H 3,4 H 3,5 H H 3,6 ' 4,4 H 4,6 H 5,4 H 5,5 H 5,6 = ( H 4,7 + H = ( H = ( H = ( H = ( H = ( H = ( H = ( H = ( H 2,3 6,3 2,3 2,5 2,7 4,7 4,7 6,3 6,5 6,7 + H + H + H 2,5 6,5 4,5 + H 4,5 + H + H 4,5 + H 4,5 + H 4,5 4,5 + H 4,5 + H 4,5 + H ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) + H / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 / 2 2,7 6,7) + H / 8 4,3 H H H, = H, H, / 48 i j j= i= T i j i= 1 j= 1 H, H Neumann i j 144
149 u g u v g g = g / f ( = g / f ( 6 i= 5 j= i= 2 j= 3 H H i, j i, j 3 i= 2 j= i= 2 j= 6 H H i, j i, j ) / 90( ) /120( vg g f 850hPa 700hPa 500hPa wk = ( ) ( ) d k α k k w d 6 <10 10 H * i, j = 500 w k k = 850 H i, j * H k i j H i j [2] 3 T106 T106 T T T : : T :
150 T T : 48 6 T T : T T T106 2 T T T T106 2 T T T106 T106 3 T106 T106 T106 T T
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153 C D DC 1 36~48 AB B D DA1 DC DA1 DR 6 DR 6 V6 MICAPS 1 AB DC DR 48 A1D AB DR DR FXAS504 FXAS507 T / FXAS *10 6 /s *10 6 /s 1 13~14 14~15 15~16 16~17 149
154 m/s 25m/s 30m/s FXAS504 A B AB hPa C D DC 340 AB B 9910 D DC DA DR ~48 DR =335 6 V6=8km/h DR hPa 48 DR hPa [1] [2] [3]
155 [1] [2] 48 T
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162 WINDOWS AGC WINDOWS WINDOWS DOS WINDOWS C++ AGC WINDOWS C++ WINDOWS , X VAX3800 : X
163 1 MAPS 20mm 67% MAPS 1997 MAPS mm MAPS 20mm 1998 MAPS mm MAPS m 3 /s 43.5m 0000 m 3 /s mm 30mm 5 500hPa 120 E 24 N 28 N 588dagpm 30 N 110 E dagpm 45 N 55 N 110 E~135 E N Tm E 42 N 98 E 110 E 10m/s Tm 8 35 N 584dagpm 700hPa 850hPa 850hPa 159
164 20 700hPa 11 TTd ~ mm 90mm mm % mm 30mm 1m
165 MAPS MAPS MAPS MAPS 2 ALPHA3800 * 161
166 2 MAPS X_ windows UNIX MAPS Windows 95 WindowsNT 2 VGA 3 2 VisualC Fortran NCAR 3 DECnet MAPS DECnet NCAR 4 1 NCAR DOS Fortran NCAR 162
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169 3 MAPS ALPHA N~44.5 N 95.5 E~124.5 E 25.0 N~37.0 N E~120.0 E 0.5 MAPS 12~36 12 MAPS WHTTMNii.DDL WH TT EO: GH: DU: U DV: V T0: RH: RV: DI: RA: TB: TS: AU: X AV: Y RI: Richardson SW: Showalter M A 20.5 N~44.5 N 95.5 E~124.5 E 0.5 lat*lon 59 * 49 B 25.0 E~37.0 E N~120.0 N 0.5 lat*lon 31 *
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