GCM GCM 6 GCM δ 18 O 2 1 GCM Fig. 1 Locations of the meteorological stations and ice cores in the Tianshan Mountains China 19 MeteoInf

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1 ARID ZONE RESEARCH Vol. 35 No. 2 Mar doi /j. azr GCM GISS-E MERRA GISS-E NCEP isogsm NCEP LMDZ free LMDZ ECMWF MIROC free 6 GCM δ 18 O δ 18 O 6 δ 18 O δ 18 O δ 18 O GCM GCM MIRCO free α = MIROC free δ 18 O / δ 18 O δ 18 O GCMs 1-2 GNIP a % δ 18 O 7 general circulation model 8 3 GCM 20 GCM GNIP Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation CBA01801 SKLCS - OP Sqj NWNU - LKQN geoyangsen@ 126. com. mjzhang2004@ 163. com http / /azr. xjegi. com

2 GCM GCM 6 GCM δ 18 O 2 1 GCM Fig. 1 Locations of the meteorological stations and ice cores in the Tianshan Mountains China 19 MeteoInfo 1 17 a 14 δ 18 O / GCM km / km 'E 43 03'N % m 2 Core 2 Core m δ 18 O SWING2 Stable Water Isotope Intercomparison Group Phase2 GCM 1 GISS-E 28 MERRA GISS-E NCEP isogsm NCEP GNIP MIROC free LMDZ free LMDZ ECMWF 1 GCM Tab. 1 Basic information of GCMs GCM GISS-E MERRA MERRA 28 GISS-E NCEP NCEP 28 isogsm NCEP NCEP 29 MIROC free AMIP 30 LMDZ free ECMWF 31 LMDZ ECMWF AMIP 31

3 2 GCM W X n s = MeteoInfo Hys- 2 槡 s N n' = 1 plit Trajectory 32 W X n s δ t ψ 0 n s http / /ready. arl. noaa. gov /archives. php NCEP /NCAR present 2. 2 GCM δ 18 O 37 Morlet δ 18 O 3 δ 18 O GCM δ 18 O 34 2 δ 18 O 7 8 δ 18 O MeteoInfo 1 2 Morlet Gauss GCM LMDZ free LMDZ ECMWF ψ μ = π e iw o μ e - μ2 2 1 ψ μ w i μ x n' 3 GISS-E MERRA GISS-E NCEP 35 n' = 1 2 N isogsm NCEP MIROC free LMDZ ECMWF δ t x n' ψ 0 [ n' - n δ t s ] isogsm NCEP 7 3 GISS-E MERRA 1 Fig. 2 2 GCMs δ 18 O Monthly variation of δ 18 O from GCMs in the Tianshan Mountains

428 35 Fig. 3 3 GCMs δ 18 O Correlation between temperature and monthly average value of δ 18 O in precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains derived from GCMs LMDZ free δ 18 O 0.

4 Fig. 3 3 GCMs δ 18 O Correlation between temperature and monthly average value of δ 18 O in precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains derived from GCMs LMDZ free δ 18 O 0. 9 GISS-E NCEP MIROC free 4e LMDZ ECMWF 4f 0. 9 LMDZ free GISS-E MERRA 4a GISS-E MERRA 0. 6 ~ b GISS-E NCEP 4c isogsm NCEP isogsm NCEP δ 18 O 0. 6 ~ GCM 0. 9 LMDZ free 0. 9 LMDZ ECMWF 3. 3 δ 18 O 50 a δ O GCM δ 18 O GCM δ O 6 δ 18 O δ O 3 4 δ 18 O δ 18 O δ 18 O 0. 6 ~ d MIROC free 39 Morlet 4e LMDZ ECMWF 51 a δ 18 O

peripheral areas derived from GCMs Fig. 5 α = 0.

5 2 GCM 429 Fig. 4 4 GCMs δ 18 O Correlation between temperature and annual average value of δ 18 O in precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains and the peripheral areas derived from GCMs Fig. 5 α = δ 18 O The continuous wavelet power spectrum cross-wavelet coherency and phase spectrum for δ 18 O value in precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains ~ 18 δ 18 O π /4 δ 18 O 5c δ 18 O δ 18 O 5a δ 18 O π/4 π/2 5a δ 18 O 5c 5b δ 18 O δ 18 O ~ 16 / 3. 4 GCM δ 18 O 5b δ 18 O GCM

6 δ 18 O δ 18 O GISS-E NCEP 6 6 GCM isogsm NCEP MIROC free LMDZ free δ 18 O 0. 5 ~ 0. 6 MIROC δ 18 O free MIROC free GCM δ 18 O α = GISS-E MER- RA GISS-E NCEP LMDZ ECMWF δ 18 O 8a GISS-E MERRA 8c isogsm δ 18 O GCM δ 18 O b GISS-E NCEP 8d MIROC free GCM 7a GISS-E MERRA 7b GISS-E NCEP 7c isogsm NCEP ROC free 7d MIROC free 7d MIROC free δ 18 O GCM δ 18 O 0. 4 ~ d MIROC free GCM δ 18 O GCM NCEP GCM d MI- r < b MIROC free Fig δ 18 O 6 δ 18 O Comparison of δ 18 O in ice core from Miaoergou with the data of δ 18 O in ice core nearby Miaoergou during the period of derived from 6 models

precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains derived from 6 GCMs Fig.

7 2 GCM 431 Fig δ 18 O δ 18 O The correlation between value of δ 18 O in ice core from Miaoergou and the δ 18 O value in precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains derived from 6 GCMs Fig δ 18 O δ 18 O Correlation between the value of δ 18 O in ice core nearly Miaoergou with other δ 18 O values in precipitation in the peripheral area simulated by 6 GCMs δ 18 O 3. 5 MIROC free a δ 18 O 9b 2 a δ 18 O a

432 35 1995 1990 1994 1995 2001 1995 δ 18 O 1992 5. 97% 1993 δ 18 O / 50. 54% 10f ~ 10l 2 44 GCM 2001 9. 62% MIROC free 53. 84% MIROC free MIROC free δ 18 O 43.

9 9 1979 2007 MIROC free δ 18 O Continuous wavelet power spectrum of δ 18 O value in precipitation and its interannual variation during the period from 1979 to 2007

8 δ 18 O % 1993 δ 18 O / % 10f ~ 10l 2 44 GCM % MIROC free % MIROC free MIROC free δ 18 O N E MeteoInfo MIROC free d δ 18 O 10a ~ 10e δ 18 O % 2001 Fig MIROC free δ 18 O Continuous wavelet power spectrum of δ 18 O value in precipitation and its interannual variation during the period from 1979 to 2007 derived from MIROC free model Fig MIROC free 10 d Spatial distribution of 10-day backward trajectories and its cluster mean in the MIROC free model on precipitation days during the period from 1979 to 2007

9 2 GCM % % % 1994 δ 18 O References 2004 δ 18 O a a % % MIROC free δ 18 O δ 18 O δ 18 O / δ 18 O δ O δ 18 O δ 18 O GNIP δ 18 O 4 1 GCM Wang Youqing Pu Jianchen 2 GCM 6 MIROC free δ 18 O δ 18 O Urumqi Riverhead in eastern Tianshan δ 18 O δ 18 O / 1 Thomas E R Bracegirdle T J. Precipitation pathways for five new ice core sites in Ellsworth Land West Antarctica J. Climate Dynamics / Johnsen S J Clausen H B Jouzel J et al. Stable isotope records from greenland deep ice cores The climate signal and the role of diffusion J. Ice Physics and the Natural Environment Schotterer U Froehlich K Gaeggeler H et al. Isotope records from Mongolian and Alpine ice cores as climate indicators J. Climatic Change / J Tian Lide Yao Tandong. High-resolution climate and environmental records from the Tibetan Plateau ice cores J. Chinese Science Bulletin J Zhao Huabiao Xu Baiqing Wang Ninglian. Study on the water stable isotopes in Tibetan Plateau ice cores as a proxy of temperature J. Quaternary Sciences J Tian Lide Yao Tandong Sun Weizhen et al. The effect of snow storm in the South of Himalayas on δ 18 O in ice core record J. Acta Meteorologica Sinica J Tian Lide Yao Tandong Wen Rong et al. A primary recognition on the climatic significance of ice core isotope record in Naimonanyi of West Tibetan Plateau J. Quaternary Sciences J Wei Keqin Lin Ruifen. An enquiry into palaeoclimatic information from Oxygen i- sotopic profile of Dunde ice core in Qilianshan J. Geochimica J Zhang Yongliang et al. Characteristics of present warming change recorded in Malan ice core central Tibetan Plateau J. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology J Wang Liwei Zhongqin Dong Zhiwen et al. Chronology and record formation process of an ice core from Glacier No. 1 at China J. Arid Land Geography a 1 J Yao Hongbin Li Zhongqin Wang Puyu et al. Area variation analysis of

10 Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in past 50 decades J. Arid Zone Research Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres J Xu Chun hai Wang Feiteng Li Zhongqin et al. Glacier variation in the Manas River Basin during the period from 1972 to 2013 J. Arid Zone Research B Chemical and Physical Meteorology GCM J Wang S J Zhang M J Che Y J et al. Influence of below-cloud e Zhang Xinping Sun Zhi an Guan Huade et al. GCM simulation of stable water isotopes in water cycle and intercomparisons over East Asia J. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology Joussaume S Sadourny R Jouzel J. A general circulation model of water isotope cycles in the atmosphere J. Nature Wang S J Zhang M J Chen F L et al. Comparison of GCM-simulated isotopic compositions of precipitation in arid central Asia J. Journal of Geographical Sciences Conroy J L Cobb K M Noone D. Comparison of precipitation isotope variability across the tropical Pacific in observations and SWING2 model simulations J. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Sturm C Zhang Q Noone D. An introduction to stable water isotopes in climate models Benefits of forward proxy modelling for paleoclimatology J. Climate of the Past Liu Xiaokang Rao Zhiguo Zhang Xiaojian et ent-day and past climates and applications to climatic interpreta- al. Variations in the oxygen isotopic composition of precipitation in tions of tropical isotopic records J. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres D12. the Tianshan Mountains region and their significance for the westerly circulation J. Acta Geographica Sinica Wang Y Q. MeteoInfo GIS software for meteorological data visualization and analysis J. Meteorological Applications Draxler R R Hess G D. An overview of the hysplit - 4 modeling system for trajectories J. Australian Meteorological Magazine 33. J Shen Chenhua. Meteorological 20. M. effects on rice yields in Jiangsu Province J. Acta Ecologica Sini Hu Ruji. Physical Geography of Tianshan Mountains in China M. Beijing China Environmental Science Press J Liu Shiyin Yao Xiaojun Guo Wanxin et al. The contemporary glaciers in China based on the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory J. Acta Geographica Sinica J Wang Yu Li Junli Li Changchun et al. Spatiotemporal change of Glacial Lakes in the Biezhengtao Mountain and its response to climate change J. Arid Zone Research J Wang Shengjie Zhang Mingjun Li Zhongqin et al. Response of glacier area variation to climate change in Chinese Tianshan Mountations in the past 50 years J. Acta Geographica Sinica Wang S J Zhang M J Pepin N C et al. Recent changes in freezing level heights in High Asia and their impact on glacier changes J. 25 Wang S J Zhang M J Hughes C E et al. Factors controlling stable isotope composition of precipitation in arid conditions An observation network in the Tianshan Mountains central Asia J. Tellus vaporation on deuterium excess in precipitation of Arid Central A- sia and its meteorological controls J. Journal of Hydrometeorology Liu Y P Hou S G Hong S M et al. High-resolution trace element records of an ice core from the eastern Tienshan central Asia since 1953 AD J. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres D Schmidt G A Legrande A N Hoffmann G. Water isotope expressions of intrinsic and forced variability in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model J. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres D Yoshimura K Kanamitsu M Noone D et al. Historical isotope simulation using reanalysis atmospheric data J. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres D19 e e Kurita N Noone D Risi C et al. Intraseasonal isotopic variation associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation J. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres D Camille R Sandrine B Francoise V et al. Water-stable isotopes in J the LMDZ4 general circulation model Model evaluation for pres- ca Torrence C Compo G P. A practical guide to wavelet analysis J. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Grinsted A Moore J C Jevrejeva S. Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series J. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics / a Nino 3 SST J Liu Zhanming Chen Zishen Lu Jianfei et al. Analysis of correlation between the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation in Beijiang River Basin and SST in Nino 3 J. Journal of Natural Resources Lonnie H Huang J P. Bivariate wavelet analysis of Asia monsoon and ENSO J. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences a J Li Jinglin Zhang Shanqing Pu Zongchao et al. Spatial-temporal variation of

11 2 GCM 435 seasonal and annual air temperature in Xinjiang during J. Arid Land Geography δ 18 O J. J Zhang Song Linlin Hou Shugui Liu Yaping. Xueqin Sun Yang Mao Weiyi et al. Regional response of temperature change in the arid regions of China to global warming J. Arid Zone Research M He Qing Yuan Yujiang Zhao Yong et al. Investigation on climate change in Central Asia M. Beijing Meteorological Press D Li Ruixue. Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Climate Change in the Tianshan Mounng Li Weijing Ma Zhuguo. Water-vapor source shift of Xinjiang J Dai Xingatainous China D. Gansu Northwest Normal University region during the recent twenty years J. Progress in Natural Science Wang S J Zhang M J Crawford J et al. The effect of moisture J Ayixiamu Niyazhi source and synoptic conditions on precipitation isotopes in arid Zhou Ningfang Yang Guiming. Analyses on characteristics of air central Asia J. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres temperature change in Hami Xinjiang in resent 45 years J. Meteorological Monthly δ 18 O record of Miaoergou ice core from the Karlik Mountains of east Tienshan since 1953 J. Journal of Lanzhou University Natural Sciences Edition J Wei Keqin Lin Ruifen. The influence of the monsoon climate on the isotopic composition of precipitation in China J. Geochimica Affecting Mechanism of Moisture Sources of Isotopes in Precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains Based on GCMs and Ice Core YANG Sen 1 ZHANG Ming-jun 1 WANG Sheng-jie College of Geography and Environment Science Northwest Normal University Lanzhou Gansu China 2. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources Chinese Academy Sciences Lanzhou Gansu China Abstract The interannual variations of δ 18 O from the GCMs and ice core were studied according to the six simulations of several isotope-equipped general circulation models GCMs including the GISS-E MERRA GISS-E NCEP isogsm NCEP LMDZ free LMDZ ECMWF and MIROC free and the data of δ 18 O from the Miaoergou ice core. By correlation analysis the six simulations of isotope-enabled GCMs and the δ 18 O data from ice core were analyzed. Six simulations of isotope-enabled GCMs data and the ice core data were involved and the monthly series of stable oxygen isotopes in precipitation for each grid were applied to calculate the linear trends. By observing the change trend of δ 18 O data from ice core and simulated data the most suitable isotope-enabled general circulation model GCM was selected to analyze the data of δ 18 O in precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains and the sources of water vapor in the most suitable model were further analyzed. The results showed that there was a temperature effect in the results simulated with GCMs on an interannual timescale. Generally the correlation between oxygen isotope composition and surface air temperature on interannual timescale was lower than on seasonal timescale. The trend of MIROC free model was similar to that of the Miaoergou ice core a = MIROC free model was the most suitable model used to simulate the values of δ 18 O in precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains and the result from the MIROC free model was similar to the measured one. The direction and proportion of water vapor sources determined the poverty or enrichment degree of δ 18 O in precipitation. Based on the continuous wavelet transform methods the strongest energy occurred during the period from 1990 to Even though the values of δ 18 O in precipitation during the period from 1990 to 2001 presented many positive fluctuations a significant decrease trend was characterized in general. After observing the vapor source trajectories the increased water vapor from the Arctic Ocean resulted in a significant decrease trend of δ 18 O in precipitation and the increased water vapor from the mid-latitude Atlantic caused many increasingly fluctuations of δ 18 O. Key words GCMs ice core water vapor source stable water isotopes Miaoergou Tianshan Mountains

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions

mm 400 mm 15 mm EOF mm/10a Fig. 1 Distributions 7 2 2011 3 ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH Vol. 7 No. 2 March 2011 1673-1719 (2011) 02-0097-07 1961 2007 77 5 5 6 2 3 8 11 1980 1980 1990 2015 8 11 P426.6 A 7.86% 4 50 0.35 5 6 19 7 8 9 1 1906 2005